Who will history credit or blame for the middle east uprisings?

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by mcrain, Feb 23, 2011.

  1. mcrain macrumors 68000

    mcrain

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    #1
    Reagan spent trillions of dollars we didn't have on expanding our military, which some argue led to the overspending and eventual downfall of the Soviet Union. Many give Reagan credit for "winning" the Cold War.

    Will history give President Obama similar credit for whatever this is in the Middle East? Will history point to GWB's response to 9/11 in Afghanistan, and invasion and occupation of Iraq as the cause?

    So, is what's happening going to be viewed by posterity as a good or bad thing, and who's going to get the credit or the blame?
     
  2. 184550 Guest

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    #2
    What do you think Obama did to facilitate the recent events in the Middle East?

    IMO, it's a stretch to directly connect any of the recent events in the Middle East to Obama or Bush. However, if I had to chose one, I'd say Bush for the aforementioned reasons you gave.

    I think that in the long term it will be viewed as a good thing set in motion by the people who lived in the respective countries.
     
  3. rdowns macrumors Penryn

    rdowns

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    #3
    Since this is still playing out, I feel your question is premature.
     
  4. mcrain thread starter macrumors 68000

    mcrain

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    #4
    Bad joke.

    (edit) Ok, probably not funny. Seriously, I'm just curious what people think as it is playing out.
     
  5. hulugu macrumors 68000

    hulugu

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    #5
    Fair question, I think Obama might have the luck/bane of simply being in the Oval office at the right time.

    I disagree, the war in Iraq probably did as much to harm these collective movements as help them. I think it also teaches, thus far a valuable lesson that democracy won't come from invasion, but rather through internal, complex societal pressures. If we're going to look for root causes, the rising price of food probably did more to upset Egypt than anything that happened in Iraq.

    I hope you're right, but I worry for the future in Libya, Algeria, Egypt, Bahrain, Djibouti, Sudan, UAE, Yemen, Iran, and Iraq.

    I agree. It's way early to tell and I'd argue that the causes are more complex than we realize and cannot, like the Cold war, be sourced to the administrative policies of one leader, even if it's the US.
     
  6. vincenz macrumors 601

    vincenz

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    #6
    Aliens must think we're idiots, that's for sure.

    Blame religion, maybe?
     
  7. 184550 Guest

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    #7
    I don't think the question in premature at all.

    The Tunisian Revolution, which arguably inspired and set in motion the preceding revolutions, began in December 2010, roughly three months ago.

    While it may be too soon to speculate on the short term direct and indirect causes, I believe that we can begin to consider the long term direct and indirect causes, as this thread, and the questions asked in it, seem to indicate.

    I agree with both points.
     
  8. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #8
    I keep hearing the whole Egypt thing started with a Facebook page. And we all know how Tunisia went.

    In a way, it wouldn't be too far-fetched to credit Al Gore for being the prime mover behind putting ARPANET in the hands of the public.

    Of course, there's been a bubbling pro-democracy undercurrent for a long, long time. But something brought it to the fore at this moment, and that something could very well have been the internet. Fed-up attitude, meet instant worldwide communication.

    That's who history might credit, anyway.

    Conservatives would probably blame the unions. :D
     
  9. likemyorbs macrumors 68000

    likemyorbs

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    #9
    +1000000000

    And yeah, i wouldn't blame the aliens if they saw us humans as barbarians and tried to colonize us. We must look like savages to them. But then again, you don't know what goes on on their own home planets.
     
  10. skunk macrumors G4

    skunk

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    #10
    I think it will be viewed as an excellent thing that the US Administration did NOT get actively involved, and instead allowed the peoples of these countries to own their revolutions. If possible, Libya should be the same, but if reports in The Guardian are correct, and the death toll around Benghazi alone is already between one and two thousand, it is going to be increasingly difficult not to intervene.
     
  11. Peterkro macrumors 68020

    Peterkro

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    #11
    When this is all done and dusted (if it ever is) those that come out of it worst will be governments both those in control of the countries and those outside.It's fairly obvious the US/UK etc are prevaricating until they get their citizens out and will try and enforce a no fly zone afterwards,too little to late.I can only hope rumours of international volunteers coming to the aid of the Libyans especially are true.
     
  12. Blue Velvet Moderator emeritus

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    #12
    Not weighing in on the specific topic, but for anyone who'd like more background to what's going on across the Middle East, I recommend bookmarking Professor Juan Cole's blog.

    http://www.juancole.com/

    Here's part of a piece he wrote for The Nation:

     
  13. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #13
    What! And ignore the sage advice of that international political expert, Ann Coulter?

    :rolleyes:
     
  14. skunk macrumors G4

    skunk

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    Unless the Libyan airforce is active, it would seem pretty useless to enforce a no-fly zone. Since the airforce seems busy defecting, I fail to see much utility in that, besides which one would need properly-equipped bases in neighbouring countries to carry out such a plan. It sounds good, but I suspect it could not be organised for a little while even if desirable.
     
  15. Lord Blackadder macrumors G5

    Lord Blackadder

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    #15
    I think Obama's government has played their part pretty well so far, but the uprisings in the middle east are emphatically indigenous efforts. This is not "regime change" by an outside agent; it is a popular revolt.

    Some reports suggest that Gaddafi may not be able to completely rely on the military, though he certainly seems able to call upon a hard-core of supporters within the military as well as paramilitary thugs.

    I believe the closest US carrier is the one patrolling off Somalia, which would put it days away (plus a Suez transit). So in the short term, as you say, enforcement of a no-fly-zone would be limited to whatever could be flown from Malta. I'm sure such contingencies are being examined, but by the time such options are deployable the situation on the ground will surely have altered significantly.
     
  16. Peterkro macrumors 68020

    Peterkro

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    #16
    I agree ,however it's somewhat more complicated, in the east for instance at least one and probably two of Gaddafi's ultra secret SAM sites are in the peoples hands.There are also several Airforce bases with Frogger (or it might be Flogger) planes with Russian technicians in control,these things can perpetrate extreme damage on thousands of people very quickly.Whilst I don't support any U.S./Otan threats the possibility of such will make Gadaffi think twice.It is balanced (yet again) on a knife edge.There are three frigates tied up in Tripoli and as you say they are confused as to what position to take,the threat of a no fly zone may well persuade them to sail out into the Med and stay there until the position is clearer.It is clear at this moment the people will win,what bothers me is how many will die before it's finished.
     
  17. Lord Blackadder macrumors G5

    Lord Blackadder

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    #17
    The possiblity of a seriously bloody conflict still remains. The military seems to be hesitating, or rather fragmenting, so I'm not sure how high the risk of a military crackdown is, but as I said above Gaddafi still seems to have ample means of visiting violence on people, and he has not yet been dislodged. The Libyans, however, seem pretty determined.
     
  18. iJohnHenry macrumors P6

    iJohnHenry

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    #18

    Colonise? Doubt it.

    But if we taste like veal, or chicken, we might be worth a second look.


    Now to the events, why did those 2 pilots eject and ditch their planes in the Mediterranean, when they could have taken the ****er out, right a proper.
     
  19. skunk macrumors G4

    skunk

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    #19
    They probably don't know where he is, and besides, he probably is defended by state-of-the-art SAM batteries.
     
  20. Apple OC, Feb 23, 2011
    Last edited: Feb 23, 2011

    Apple OC macrumors 68040

    Apple OC

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    #20
    The one common thing about these uprisings ... Facebook
     
  21. skunk macrumors G4

    skunk

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    #21
    And Twitter.
     
  22. Lord Blackadder macrumors G5

    Lord Blackadder

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    #22
    It's no coincidence that military analysts keep hammering the importance of the "information war" in any conflict. Today's communication networks allow any group of people to act in unison and to adapt more quickly to a situation. It allows for more efficent repression but also more efficient revolt.
     
  23. iJohnHenry macrumors P6

    iJohnHenry

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    #23
    "Sow the wind, reap the whirlwind!" I love it when old sayings come to new fruition.

    And, speaking about Al Jazeera, it occurs to me that they are poised to bring-about the demise of the U.S., through the use of truth.

    Nothing more, nothing less, will be required.

    Wikileaks might get an assist on the score-card. ;)
     
  24. skunk macrumors G4

    skunk

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    #24
    If anybody brings about the demise of the US, it will be the US itself. Self-determination is a two-edged sword.
     
  25. Peterkro macrumors 68020

    Peterkro

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    #25
    Posting with a clearer head :( I think any idea of Nato forces getting involved would be a very bad idea as has been pointed out there at least at the moment no sign of the Libyan airforce being involved in any great numbers against the people.Given the two Mirages flying to Malta and the one that ditched in the east,Gadaffi must be at least unsure of where their loyalties lie.There must be by this stage a huge amount of arms in the peoples hands which along with those military units that are supporting them should be enough to get rid of Gadaffi.I'm hoping he's only surronded by a small number of loyalists,other tribes have already reached out to Gadaffi's to say it's him they're against and not his tribe.
    (although I still think the threat of a no-fly zone may help actually doing it would be a monster mistake)

    (as I'm posting this I'm reading that France is pushing the no fly plan)
     

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