Who's Ready for our Chinese Overlords?

miloblithe

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In 2005 the world's economic system is preeminently dominated by the United States, with a GDP of $11.7 trillion. The other trillionaire countries in existence today are Japan ($4.4 trillion), Germany ($2.0 trillion), China ($1.7 trillion), Britain ($1.7 trillion), France ($1.5 trillion) and Italy ($1.2 trillion). So, let's us assume that on the basis of economic size alone, those countries would constitute G7 (sorry Russia and Canada).

Within five years, China overtakes Germany, to become the third largest economy behind the United States and Japan. This is in spite of China's growth beginning to slow from the breakneck double digit rates of the 1990s to around 7% in 2010, and later to around 5% at the end of the following decade. China's economy slowly cools, but Japan's economy is stone cold in comparison, with a real growth rate of barely a percentage point per year in the coming decade. In 2016, China passes the $5 trillion barrier and overtakes Japan to become number two in the world.

...

By the middle of the century, the G7 summit would more likely to be held in Recife than Rambouillet. The countries which ran the world at the beginning of the year would be fewer in number, and those which still survive at the top will necessarily have required considerable economic and social transformation. Ruling the roost would be China with a GDP of $44.5 trillion. The United States was overtaken nine years earlier in 2041, and has clearly lost dominance with a comparatively modest GDP of $35.2 trillion. Indeed India, with the most favourable demographic profile of the major powers, is closing in with a GDP of $27 trillion. Far behind the big three are Japan ($6.7 trillion), Brazil ($6.1 trillion) and Russia ($5.9 trillion). Britain remains having a voice in the world through its Athenian power play and stays in G7 as the sole European power, with a GDP of $3.8 trillion.
 

mactastic

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JesseJames said:
Awww, and I took 3 year of Spanish in high school.
You're fine with that. It's the next generation and their kids that will be dealing with the rising China.

If the predictions in that article are correct, a child born this year would be 36 the year China's GDP surpasses ours. That's just the time they need to be in the ascendency of their careers.
 

miloblithe

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Of course, the projections don't take into account environment, political developments, war, resource limitations (oil, water, etc). Personally, I don't think any of that is going to happen. We're not going to sustain current overall world growth forever. I'm also specifically suspicious of any prediction that has Russia maintaining high growth for 45 more years and surpassing Germany in GDP. On the other hand, if there _is_ noticable global warming in the future, I'm moving back to Siberia. It should be just about perfect. :)

Still, the overall trends are realistic. Europe and Japan are fairly stagnant. China, India, and Brazil are emerging (or standing) regional superpowers and future global players. And the US percentage of the world's overall economy will continue to decline as it has for the past 60 years. US ability to preserve our current global "leadership" is perceptably limited to the next 5-20 years.
 

devilot

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mactastic said:
Hey, if you want your kids to have a leg up in the world encourage them to learn Chinese.
Naaa... Chinese school is a joke. It's community cheating school. All of us would sit together and whisper the answers to each other, a few of my teachers would even write down the correct answers for us if we asked. :p

Probably the best way to learn Chinese is to speak it everyday whenever possible.
 

mactastic

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devilot76 said:
Naaa... Chinese school is a joke. It's community cheating school. All of us would sit together and whisper the answers to each other, a few of my teachers would even write down the correct answers for us if we asked. :p
I didn't suggest a method. :confused:
Probably the best way to learn Chinese is to speak it everyday whenever possible.
I agree. Immersion is the best way to learn. But that requires that people around you speak Chinese, something not all of us have ready access to.
 

miloblithe

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mactastic said:
I agree. Immersion is the best way to learn. But that requires that people around you speak Chinese, something not all of us have ready access to.
How hard is it to find a Chinese person?

:)
 

devilot

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Ah... but the other question would be... which form of Chinese to learn? I only know Mandarin... but Cantonese is also used a lot, and of course, in China, there are hundreds of dialects. And there's also Taiwanese... Sigh.
 

zimv20

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devilot76 said:
Ah... but the other question would be... which form of Chinese to learn? I only know Mandarin... but Cantonese is also used a lot, and of course, in China, there are hundreds of dialects. And there's also Taiwanese... Sigh.
Mandarin, imo. even hong kongers are speaking it more and more. cantonese is still my favorite dialect, though.

and it did take me some time to find someone willing to teach me cantonese. for pay, of course. and, no, i didn't really learn it, but i can still say a few things.
 

Sayhey

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I was hoping this thread was about Lucy Liu in black leather, but I see it is more "scary" stuff about the Chinese taking over the world. The phrase "yellow peril" mean anything to anyone? I'm more worried about the US invading China than I am about China controlling the US. As to 2050, it is a long way off, and the world will likely change many times over - including the politics of China and India. Chinese Overlords in San Francisco? Let's just say, I'm not worried.
 

tristan

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My grandfather's been bugging me to learn Chinese. I lived in Singapore for a while, so I know some of the culture and have a few Chinese friends.

China and India will be our overlords, here's why. Both countries, once stable, are capable of achieving and supporting a middle class and are rapidly moving towards that. There's no reason why per-capita GDP of $15k to $20k couldn't happen in the next generation or two. Multiply both per-capita GDP numbers by the population, and you have a GDP of $15T to $20T, much larger than the US and Europe. It will be a while before they hit that potential, and they have some hurdles to go before that, like establishing more universities, upgrading infrastructure, etc, but it's almost inevitable and they are headed in that direction pretty quickly.

I know the same predictions were made about Japan, but Japan had a much smaller population and already hit a GDP per capita of about $30K, which seems to be a cap, more or less.
 

miloblithe

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Sayhey said:
I see it is more "scary" stuff about the Chinese taking over the world. The phrase "yellow peril" mean anything to anyone? I'm more worried about the US invading China than I am about China controlling the US. As to 2050, it is a long way off, and the world will likely change many times over - including the politics of China and India. Chinese Overlords in San Francisco? Let's just say, I'm not worried.
I realize I did use the word overlords, but I didn't mean to start a yellow peril thread. I'm not hoping to propegate China fear. My interest is really just in helping people realize that US dominance is a short-term reality. The world is going to be increasingly multi-polar in the future.

Hopefully, I think this will lead to greater collaboration and more equalized pressure for all to improve and contribute. I hope it doesn't just lead to increased competetion (in a negative sense of the word) and conflict.
 

miloblithe

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tristan said:
There's no reason why per-capita GDP of $15k to $20k couldn't happen in the next generation or two. ... they have some hurdles to go before that, like establishing more universities, upgrading infrastructure, etc,
Those are kind of contradictory statements. And there are plenty of reasons that (real) per-capita GDP might not reach 15-20k in a generation or two. For example:war with Pakistan/Taiwan/etc., civil war, change in political structure, insufficient energy resources, insufficient water resources, insufficient agricultural resources (for 1.5 billion person populations), demographic challenges (too many retirees, not enough workers), AIDS or other epidemics...
 

skunk

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If the US had curbed its arrogance, and not wanted to reserve so many prerogatives to itself in its brief spark of glory, it could have built the UN into a useful force to circumscribe future unipolar pretensions from all quarters, to everyone's benefit. The balance was always going to shift at some point, but the Neocons and many others besides continue to be seduced by the idea of a "Thousand Year Reich". The PNAC exemplifies this outdated nation-state-based ambition. Competing nation-states will always end up at war. By the time these would-be oligarchs wake up, the moment will have passed, and they will no longer have the influence to change anything. When will the world have an empire wise enough to cede power at its zenith?
 

tristan

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Okay, you're right, we'll stop defending Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan tonight, which will give China the weekend to take them over. Seriously, China is still a dictatorship with military ambitions, and we do need some force in that region to counterbalance their intentions. We (the west) were able to prevent Western Europe from becoming a communist dictatorship and help roll democracy east which is great, and the future looks pretty bright there. Asia could still tip into authoritarian dictatorship, but probably won't if we're around to provide balance and stability. If we do leave, Japan will have to rearm and that could create another China-Japan conflict.
 

skunk

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tristan said:
Okay, you're right, we'll stop defending Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan tonight, which will give China the weekend to take them over. Seriously, China is still a dictatorship with military ambitions, and we do need some force in that region to counterbalance their intentions. We (the west) were able to prevent Western Europe from becoming a communist dictatorship and help roll democracy east which is great, and the future looks pretty bright there. Asia could still tip into authoritarian dictatorship, but probably won't if we're around to provide balance and stability. If we do leave, Japan will have to rearm and that could create another China-Japan conflict.
I'm not sure if you're answering me, t, but I'll assume you are. I'm not suggesting that the US withdraw immediately from all foreign entanglements, only that it should seek to level the playing field for a better multipolar future, rather than relying on continued preeminence through unsustainable imbalances. You lot, and us lot before you, both believed that our unassailable dominance would last so long that everybody else would necessarily be forced to play by our rules, in a game of our own invention.
You say "we (the West)" rather unconvincingly: you really mean "we, the Anglos", don't you? I mean, what country is "Asia"? And why is it more likely to tip into authoritarian dictatorship? Japan is already armed, isn't it? Have you looked at world "defence" budgets lately? Factor in that Japan does not have to maintain any nuclear capability, and that's quite a packet.