Why Apple Is Living In Denial

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by MacBytes, Mar 4, 2009.

  1. MacBytes macrumors bot

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  2. lftrghtparadigm macrumors 6502

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    sigh

    What MacBytes fails to understand, which Apple fully understands, is that this country (the former United States) is going to collapse entirely. The dollar is going to flounder until hyperinflation makes it untenable, and it is replaced with a new currency.

    None of this is going to affect the NetBook market. People are going to buy netbooks during a crisis, but they will also buy Macs. Yes Mac sales will slow, but they will NOT tank in favor of tiny Netbooks. Sales for both products will move steadily forward until NO ONE can buy anything.

    Why MacBytes and half of America is living in Denial.....
     
  3. zombitronic macrumors 65816

    zombitronic

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    The former United States? What are you implying?

    Life is over for the pessimists, and I say good riddance. The rest of us are picking ourselves up by our bootstraps and getting on with life. Apple has always been a brand for the optimists, anyway.
     
  4. lftrghtparadigm macrumors 6502

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    Not implying anything. I'm pointing out that a good 50% of the country has completely ignored the reality of the financial crisis. This is not a little short term game being played out on "the news", that messes with your pocket money for a few months.

    The people in this country that had something to lose have already lost it, and the rest of us are next. Do you know that hyperinflation is more than a silly word, and has the ability to bring an entire country down, by way of bringing down its already insolvent, dying currency?
     
  5. dejo Moderator

    dejo

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    Why are you criticizing MacBytes? All they did was link to an article on Forbes? Or did you not even follow the link?
     
  6. chicagdan macrumors 6502a

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    Is this Macrumors or the Life After the Oil Crash financial doom board? That's a very doomy prognosis. Right now, the dollar is hanging in there just fine, in large part because the euro is an even bigger mess. The Chinese will not let a dollar crash happen because then their assets would become worthless. The only way that it will happen is if the U.S. decides to turn on the printing presses and pay off our bills with freshly minted greenbacks ... the "make it rain" strategy.

    That won't happen if China keeps buying up Treasury bills. And why not buy Treasury notes? Over the last 45 years, investing long term in T-bills has been a better return on investment than the stock market. And by buying the Treasury notes, the Chinese protect their investment in trillions of dollar demoninated assets.

    So, no, the dollar is not going to collapse and hyperinflation is highly unlikely. It's far more likely that we're in a period of prolonged deflation -- but that shouldn't affect high tech because it has ALWAYS been a highly deflationary industry.
     
  7. lftrghtparadigm macrumors 6502

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    Unfortunately the federal reserve is already trying to print its way out of a crisis. You assert, "only if this happens'..." this is already what's happening, and its what CAUSED the problem in the first place. Money thats printed freely and not backed by anything is called a fiat currency and has no inherent value. Only perceive value. Once that tanks, and it has, you have nothing to stand on.

    What Chinese assets are you referring to? The 9 trillion in debt we have to them? That is not an asset, because its money that never will and was never going to be paid back. The same way thousands of mortages were handed out to people who could never conceivably pay them back. Fictional money that is treated as if it were actual cash floating around in the economy somewhere.

    Since October financiers all over the world have been dropping the US dollar in favor of assets and other currency with some value such as the Yen. The dollar is not hanging in there, its on the verge of losing its status as the world reserve currency.

    I'm sorry but your analysis is fictionally unrealistic. You strike me as someone who paid close attention to the crisis at first, but has since stopped paying attention, assuming things are improving, for no better reason than "they have to".
     
  8. MisterMe macrumors G4

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    I've got a cave in West Virginia I can let you have ... cheap!
     
  9. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    Euro v. USD (-11%)

    Oct 1 2008: $1.41
    Mar 4 2009: $1.26

    GB Pound v. USD (-21%)

    Oct 1 2008: $1.78
    Mar 4 2009: $1.41

    Yen v. USD (+7%)

    Oct 2 2008: 106
    Mar 4 2009: 99
     
  10. Tenebrous macrumors member

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    #10
    Please, please, please, stop listening to Coast to Coast AM, Alex Jones, and Ron Paul.
     
  11. foodog macrumors 6502a

    foodog

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    I think you confused him with facts.
     
  12. asphyxiafeeling macrumors regular

    asphyxiafeeling

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    ^

    i think ron paul has a good message but all his conspiracy-theorist obsessed fans are ruining him.

    the worst part is, as soon as you even consider that maybe, just MAYBE, these people are overreacting, you're labeled as some sheep who's "part of the system" or something. I know, I've tried very hard to reason with some of them.

    I'm not a prophet or anything, i'm not saying the economy isn't in a bad shape and i'm not saying things might not really get bad like they say, but i've seen doomsayers be incorrect and wrong time and time again (including alex jones, ugh!). I'd rather rest my head on optimism then the blind pessimism of these folks.
     
  13. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    An even more dramatic reversal, when you consider that the euro was trading as high as $1.60 and the GBP at $2.00 mid-2008. By October, both currencies had declined substantially against the dollar, and have continued to do so. The GBP is off 30% from its peak last year and the euro more than 20%. The yen has bucked that trend, but not by much -- and we can expect the Japanese government to do everything in its power to prevent the yen from appreciating further.

    Anyway, the point of the article seems to be that while Apple may be "in denial," that this "denial" doesn't seem to have had an impact on their bottom line. So maybe they aren't "in denial" after all, and the article really doesn't have a point. That would be a major shock indeed.
     
  14. macFanDave macrumors 6502a

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    Apple is holding firm.

    It can afford to -- the company has wisely saved money for this kind of situation. Instead of financing it operations with "leverage" (aka, debt), it essentially lived within its means and saved excess earnings instead of paying out dividends to shareholders (grrrr!). Now, the company can comfortably function even if sales drop for the next few quarters, and will come out of this economic crisis stronger than ever.

    I'll never get the ongoing jibber-jabber about prices. The economic theory about computer prices is about as discredited as the geocentric universe and Reaganomics. If you focus on price, Apple doesn't look so good, but when you consider value, Macs are by far the best computers on the planet.
     
  15. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    Yes, Apple should be paying dividends to stockholders, now more than ever. I hope you don't seriously believe that Apple is going to start losing huge sums of money. Or perhaps you know of Apple's secret plans to spend their $28 billion stash some other way.
     
  16. Sdashiki macrumors 68040

    Sdashiki

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    I dont think you have read a single article in the last month concerning the global economy and the USA's place in it. :confused:
     
  17. Rodimus Prime macrumors G4

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    Well something the guy seems to not understand is the japenese Yen and the US dollar are typically viewed as the "Safe currencies". When times are bad both the Yen and the dollar raise in value as everyone parks their money there.
     
  18. macFanDave macrumors 6502a

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    No, I don't believe that Apple will lose huge sums of money, but I do think they may not make as much as The Street wants. This often causes companies to panic and downsize. What I am saying is that Apple has enough cash to keep paying their people even if the revenue stream is light.

    I'd like to see Apple pay dividends in Apple Store credit. I'd love to get a free Mac for holding the stock for 12 years!
     
  19. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    But even a reduction in profits, which I think we can certainly expect this year, isn't going to require them to dip into cash reserves. Even a very healthy dividend (for a tech company) could easily be paid from a small fraction of current cash flow. My argument for the last couple of years has been that Apple's insistence on growing that cash pile to absurd levels looks like a lack of confidence in the future. It's impossible to understand what other reasons they could have for socking away such an immense cash reserve.
     
  20. nagromme macrumors G5

    nagromme

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    People keep predicting a dire scenario like this, and I just can't see it happening. You see, the coming bird flu pandemic will take out 75% of us within 24 months, and the survivors will be squabbling over scraps of beaver pelt. Have a nice day :)
     
  21. finnschi macrumors 6502

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    I'll move to switzerland than... :D
     
  22. timish macrumors regular

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    Sooner or later with that giant cash reserve they could potentially buy whatever companies they want, especially in this depressed economic climate.

    Cash is king and provides TONS of options, and Apple is at the top of the food chain nowadays in terms of CASH and OPTIONS!
     
  23. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    They could buy almost any company they wanted now. Not only are they extremely cash-rich, they've got plenty of market cap, which is even more important. But you'd better hope Apple doesn't get hungry for the kind of acquisitions that such huge buying power could make possible. Mergers of that magnitude often look good on paper, but do not succeed where they matter.

    At the present rate of accumulation, Apple's cash hoard will grow to around $40 billion by the end of the year. It's simply impossible for them to spend that kind of money responsibly, not that they are even trying. A very generous dividend of $1.00/share would reduce that total by $700 million. They can easily afford to pay the dividend and have all the buying power and options they could ever want or need.
     
  24. Eric5h5 macrumors 68020

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    Um, shoot the messenger much? I've seen a bunch of comments like this lately...MacBytes doesn't understand or fail to understand anything. It's just a collection of links to other sites. You might want to assign blame (or praise) to the actual sites.

    --Eric
     
  25. BackInTheSaddle macrumors regular

    BackInTheSaddle

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    #25
    Well, the geocentric universe may have been discredited, but not Reaganomics. I grew up in the 70s and 80s and I remember well how many people lost their jobs and couldn't afford to buy food because prices were climbing every week. President Reagan, together with Paul Volcker, broke the back of inflation with monetary policy, and combined with lower tax rates, created a huge surge in economic activity that created good paying jobs and also raised tax revenues tremendously. The deficits Reagan gets blamed for were largely the result of trying to rebuild the military at the same time the Democrats continued profligate social spending. It is also important to note that the deficit remained at the same percentage of GDP at the end of Reagan's term as the beginning. He just made the pie a lot bigger and people at all income levels were helped, not just the rich.

    The Reagan recipe was followed over and over again throughout the world, with largely the same results (more wealth, more tax revenues). Hopefully, Volcker will be able to work some magic with the Obama administration and together they will get the economy working again.

    But yes, Macs ARE the best computer on the planet :)
     

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