I think it is going to be announced at WWDC for a release in late July. The 4 main reasons are 1. Leaked parts in the past have usually been genuine and start to appear around a month and a half before release. Example being last years 4S back leaked on August 26th 2011 and the 4S was released October 14th 2011, a diference of 49 days. This years iPhone back leaked May 29th which 49 days later would be July 17th. So I would go with a July 20th release day, as Apple likes to release iPhones on Fridays. 2. A new screen size means Apple needs to give developers time to update their applications. Whenever the new iPhone is released, it won’t be a week and a half after it’s announced. Apple wants developers to have time to take advantage of the longer screen. There could also be new UI functionality because of extra screen space which would also require time to develop for. I think Apple will have to bite the bullet and say "Yes, we prefer to release phones shortly after an announcement, but changing the screen size is a big enough deal for developers that an early announcement is needed. 3. The unusually high number of TBA Developer sessions at WWDC. Gruber said it’s an obvious sign that they’re about something new, but the number means it’s something big. To quote “…I think something’s up.” To those with an open mind about the release date, it’s kind of obvious. These sessions are for making your apps 4 inch compatible and working in the added functionality this space adds. 4. There are millions of AT&T costumers who are currently on the 2 year update cycle that began with the 3G. 2 years later they upgraded to the iPhone 4 and now it’s time to get the iPhone 5. Many contracts will be up by the end of June, which by releasing the iPhone 5 a month later shortens the time people can wander to Andriod by 3 months. 3 months is an eternity for those in the corporate world, hoping to keep costumers with their brand. As leaks about software and hardware for Apple have become more and more routine, there are two areas where they know they can still surprise. Price and release date. Those are only known by top management and closely guarded. Think back about the iPad announcement, almost everything was known except the price and when it was said to be $499, people where astonished. Here’s to hoping for a surprise next week.