Why there will not be a Trump win

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by LizKat, Oct 16, 2016.

  1. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2004
    Location:
    Catskill Mountains
    #1
    Oh there are a lot of reasons, but this piece from the Washington Post encapsulates a few of the best. I hope you will read it, it's probably made the rounds via some Facebook walls but I don't know that, so at risk of asking you to enjoy something twice, here's the link:


    To me one of the best parts of America is its essential optimism in action, and another best part is the contagion of random moments of inspired difference-making for the better. Actions that keep American hopes alive across the board. I feel that somehow Donald Trump in the bubble of his business empire and its day to day concerns has somehow managed to miss out on how uplifting it is to live in a country where ordinary Americans take time to reach out to other ordinary Americans, across lines of class, race, age and so forth, lines that some like to emphasize and others don't see as barriers to getting along with each other and helping the country advance as well. That piece in the WaPo is a perfect sketch of how barrier-melting happens and how it spreads even across generations, never mind walks of life.

    Do you believe the ugly scenarios that Trump and his supporters --perhaps I should say henchmen-- lay out for America if he is not our choice this November?

    I don't, and I scoff at the ugliness inside Roger Stone's brain, to pick on one of Trump's advisors. Stone was profiled recently in one of the Financial Times' long-running "Lunch with the FT" series, and I pity Ed Luce for having to sit through Stone's dreadful offerings, including this outburst when Luce asked Stone what would happen if Trump loses:

    What about Hillary Clinton, I ask? What happens if she beats Trump? Stone’s words spill out even faster than before. At one point, he sounds so strident that half the restaurant turns to see what the fuss is about. “If she wins, we’re done as a nation,” Stone shoots back. “We’ll be overrun by hordes of young Muslims, like Germany and France, raping, killing, violating, desecrating. You can see that. It’s happening there.” Stone is so enraptured by his dystopian nightmare, he appears not to notice that everyone can hear him. “If Hillary wins, there will be widespread unrest, civil disobedience, badly divided government in which half the country believes she, her daughter, and her husband belong in prison. There’ll be no goodwill. No honeymoon. There will be systematic inspection of all of her actions because someone who has been a crook in the past will be a crook in the future. It will be sad. I’ll probably be forced to move to Costa Rica.”
    The thing that horrifies me --past the impending burden on poor Costa Rica-- is the extent to which Donald Trump and his helpers Mr. Stone and Mr. Bannon in particular have gone, and are doubtless going, to ensure that exactly those predictions will come true. Anyone who goes to great lengths to disrespect the diversity of our country and to undermine, in advance, American's acceptance of the results of a national election is no patriot. And yet the Republicans have put Donald Trump at the top of ther ballot.

    In fact, such behavior is enough to make plenty of ordinarily sunny American optimists angry enough to make sure that they vote for #neverTrump in November. I think again of the Georgetown students who have been inspired to crack out of the bubble of their mostly privileged backgrounds and learn more about the optimisim and sheer grit of the custodians and cooks and window washers at their school. Their efforts to help fund the higher dreams of people they now know better are what America is really about. Keeping the dream alive, keeping the doors open. Letting another generation pass those traits on. Setting a positive example of who we can be at our best. These are not people who in their wildest moments can support the ideation of Donald Trump and his campaign crew.

    Somehow I think there are enough people in this (largely artificially) polarized country who still see across "lines" in America to keep the tapestry of our ordinary lives from being shredded by a guy like Donald Trump. I hope so. But I want to know what you think.

    What are your reasons for believing that Donald Trump cannot win this contest for President of the USA?
     
  2. bradl macrumors 68040

    bradl

    Joined:
    Jun 16, 2008
    #2
    I have a plethora of reasons on why Trump won't win, and while most have already been discussed, I'll start out with this one instead:

    Donald Trump's Ego.

    His ego, narcissism, and always wanting to crave attention will be the biggest reason why Trump won't win. As nuclear as he is making his campaign now (against the Blues, the Reds, the media, etc.) he is losing the voters in his most critical state, which happens to be Utah, not Ohio.

    Don't get me wrong; Ohio is important, but Utah is even more important, as he has to prevent Evan McMullin from winning that state and spreading his influence to neighbouring states. If Trump does that, that prevents McMullin from being able to, at his best, to deadlock the Electoral College. If McMullin wins Utah, and Trump is able to beat Clinton in her firewall states (her path of least resistance to 270), the EC can be deadlocked, meaning neither Trump nor Clinton can win without some bargaining in Congress.

    If Trump does nothing about Utah, McMullin could win more than that, and not only prevent Trump from winning, but prevent himself from deadlocking the EC, giving him a fair shot at the White House. However, if Trump keeps going on about how he is the victim, despite all of the negative rhetoric he's been spewing, always wanting to be right, and putting himself above all else, it will be Trump's lust with himself that will cause him to lose.

    And we all know how much he loves being the loser.

    BL.
     
  3. Huntn macrumors G5

    Huntn

    Joined:
    May 5, 2008
    Location:
    The Misty Mountains
    #3
    My reason he won't be elected is that he lies a river out of habit, while pointing at boogiemen in all corners. He appeals to the racist, sexist, and xenophobes which reside in the minority. What he heeds to succeed is for most voting age citizens to be stupid, so mad they can't see straight, or so devoted to party they are willing to thow away all of their principles to crown Mr. FantAstic. Fortunately the majority will shoo this very dangerous man back into his gold plated tower to wonder why he is not President, before the bankers come to foreclose on him.
     
  4. thermodynamic Suspended

    thermodynamic

    Joined:
    May 3, 2009
    Location:
    USA
    #4
    I used to have reasons. Over the course of the last 2 months pretty much all of them proved to be incorrect.

    The only thing that I still believe in is that it is impossible to determine who wins until the next day after Election Day. And even then. Even the riskiest hedge fund is a pure guarantee compared to betting on this election.
     
  5. jkcerda macrumors 6502

    jkcerda

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2013
    Location:
    Criminal Mexi Midget
    #5
    this is Murika, land of honey boo boo, the Kradashian, Jersey shore. Jerry Springer and the "hold my beer, watch this" crowd.

    by all means understimate the orangutan.
     
  6. Gutwrench macrumors 65816

    Gutwrench

    Joined:
    Jan 2, 2011
    #6
    Um, maybe the biggest reason is he's now down by 11 points or so? I don't think anyone is going too far out on a limb here. Ha ha ha.
     
  7. maxsix Suspended

    maxsix

    Joined:
    Jun 28, 2015
    Location:
    Western Hemisphere
    #7
    It's simple really. Hillary has proven that with the backing of Hussein, Bubba, Wall Street, Apple and Google, she's unstoppable. Big time crime pays handsomely.
     
  8. Gutwrench macrumors 65816

    Gutwrench

    Joined:
    Jan 2, 2011
    #8
    And don't forget the vicious media advocacy and (my assumption) dirty backroom deals and shenanigans. Trump has not done himself any favors though.
     
  9. IronWaffle, Oct 16, 2016
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2016

    IronWaffle macrumors 6502

    IronWaffle

    #9
    For those who want Trump to win, the article is a safe read. It's not about the election. It's also a very good read that affirms the strengths of melting pots and/or salad bowls.

    I for one think Trump still has a fighting chance. Reading @LizKat's quote from Roger Stone, though, reaffirms, why I wish he didn't. And even if he loses, his latest salvo of Tweets (reproduced below) increasingly assure me that he will make sure that if he loses, no one wins.

    Fortunately, as the linked article reinforces, the American spirit has indefatigable power at the ground level. He can't kill that. But he can damage it and he's already trying to.

    Trump - rigged.PNG Trump - Ryan & Rigged.PNG
     
  10. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2009
    #10
    Why do these conservatives always want to move to Costa Rica? Rush Limbaugh made this claim once too...didn't follow through. Do they think it's a bastion of conservatism? They have liberal healthcare! :eek:
     
  11. LizKat thread starter macrumors 68040

    LizKat

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2004
    Location:
    Catskill Mountains
    #11
    Having just read this piece in Politico on early voting, I tend to agree with you. Could go either way.

    These bits look nice for Clinton

    So far, women are requesting ballots at a far faster rate than men in both North Carolina and Florida. That works to Clinton’s advantage — according to the most recent Fox News poll, Clinton had a 19-point advantage over Trump with female voters.

    And Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook told reporters in a press call Thursday that 180,000 Hispanic Floridians who didn’t vote in 2014 had requested mail-in ballots. (Clinton leads Trump by 24 points among likely Hispanic voters in Florida, according to a recent poll conducted for the conservative-leaning Associated Industries of Florida business group.)


    And these look better for Trump

    Trump allies in Iowa point to daily absentee ballot request figures that show GOP requests exceeding Democratic requests nearly every day in October so far. And GOP figures steadily increased over the past week, in spite of — or perhaps because of — the sexual assault controversies that have dogged Trump since the publication of an "Access Hollywood" tape on Oct. 7. Early-vote experts and Republican operatives in Iowa suggested that allegations of assault served to energize Republicans who are rallying around Trump because they believe he has been unfairly attacked. Meanwhile, Democrats in Iowa have slipped sharply behind their 2012 pace in requested absentee ballots.

    At the end of September, Democrats held a 44,000 absentee-ballot-request lead over Republicans. As of Friday, after two weeks of GOP gains, that margin sat at 26,000.

    In 2004, said one GOP operative in Iowa, “we went into Election Day 100,000 votes down. The danger zone [for Democrats] is probably 50 or 60,000 going into Election Day.”
     
  12. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2009
    #12
    Republicans are an ironic people. They have spent decades saying Bill Clinton's accusers should be believed, but if it's against their own guy (who really isn't even one of them and thus not really their guy) all of a sudden accusers should not be believed. Especially ironic for Iowa voters since Trump once asked how stupid are the people of Iowa.

    I get the impression that Trump could tell a lot of republicans that their daughter was an ugly whore and they'd still be okay with it. People are going to be studying this strange human phenomena for many decades to come.
     
  13. LizKat thread starter macrumors 68040

    LizKat

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2004
    Location:
    Catskill Mountains
    #13
    It's definitely one for the books. We've had some populist moments in US elections even in recent times but never anything like this overlap of that impulse (from both left and right at once) with an overlay of celebrity culture making it seem just surreal enough to cause --I think-- millions on millions of people to think it's all pretty much just entertainment. There will be a final episode next month and then some other show will draw good ratings for awhile. That's pretty scary, not merely interesting in an academic sense. We may finally be connecting to what the old Chinese curse of "living in interesting times" is really all about.

    Anyway we all hope for a happy ending... or do we? Donald Trump's world view is so dystopian. I hope we don't have to go there just to validate his impression. I'm not interested in his post-political day job of broadcasting it on cable TV with Steve Bannon either!
     
  14. LIVEFRMNYC macrumors 604

    Joined:
    Oct 27, 2009
    #14
    That's pretty much what everything is nowadays to the general public, just entertainment. :oops:
     
  15. LizKat thread starter macrumors 68040

    LizKat

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2004
    Location:
    Catskill Mountains
    #15
    This is how I started out thinking about Donald Trump. I feel now though that there's a lot of things I didn't know about a lot of my fellow Americans. I mean it seems crystal clear the guy is not prepared for the world's toughest job. Not in the least prepared for it. How does anything past that even matter? Yet, he's not that far down in the polls. Probably too far to make it back up in the time left but imo he should be looking at ratings more like the inverse of his polls in West Virgina by now, where he's 99.x% likely to win. Mind boggling what I have not understood about this country's ability to think critically.
     
  16. jerwin macrumors 65816

    Joined:
    Jun 13, 2015
    #16
    That's the thing. Among likely voters, Clinton enjoys just a four point lead. It seems that Trumps support is enthusiastic.



    Of course, even the most well designed poll can be on occasion, not entirely accurate.
     
  17. LizKat thread starter macrumors 68040

    LizKat

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2004
    Location:
    Catskill Mountains
    #17
    God. Twenty three more days to the margin-thin landslide.
     
  18. Technarchy macrumors 604

    Technarchy

    Joined:
    May 21, 2012
    #18
    If Trump can't win the election, no GOP member that ran for office this cycle would stand a better chance.

    The GOP has an increasingly insurmountable electoral problem.

    Without a radical shift to the left, there is almost no chance of the GOP being able to win enough states for the White House.
     
  19. twietee macrumors 603

    twietee

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2012
    #19
    I've never been to America but re-electing W and letting Palin into the limelight and stay there, just to name two, : I can see an uncanny pattern there with Trump at the pinnacle
     
  20. samcraig macrumors P6

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2009
    #20
    Irony is the people who supposedly love this country so much would be so quick to dismiss it.
     
  21. Scepticalscribe, Oct 17, 2016
    Last edited: Oct 17, 2016

    Scepticalscribe Contributor

    Scepticalscribe

    Joined:
    Jul 29, 2008
    Location:
    The Far Horizon
    #21
    Absolutely in agreement with you, @twietee. There is a pattern, a progressively appalling pattern - and - viewed from afar - it is a profoundly disturbing and unsettling one.

    As it happens, I have never been to the US either, and I have viewed your - that is, 'you plural' - politics since the election of George W Bush with something approaching stupefaction.

    To me, this is just a more insane and intense version of the same vector that started with Mr Reagan, carried on through Mr G W Bush (No 43) - George H W Bush (No 41) was sane, sober, balanced, understated, informed, intelligent, pragmatic, vastly experienced - included the selection of the atrocious Sarah Palin - and now, reaches a grotesque and horrible climax with the disgracefully irresponsible selection - as a candidate for the office of POTUS by the GOP - of someone as manifestly and as patently unsuitable for any sort of high office, as Donald Trump so clearly is.
     
  22. twietee macrumors 603

    twietee

    Joined:
    Jan 24, 2012
    #22
    Good point on the election of W - I didn't mention it since a re-election was even more appaling.

    To be fair, we see an uncanny rise of nationalistic populism throughout the continents. Perhaps an inevitable side-effect due to globalization but uncanny nonetheless - and no "happy" end in sight. Glad I'm not utterly pessimistic because one could foresee a not-so-pleasant future in the not-so-distant future easily.

    And not to appear utterly anti-American: I'm a bit late to the party eventually, since I receive my issues always a bit late overseas, but the latest New Yorker has a good sum-up to the latest "phenomenon" called AfD and her leader, Frauke Petry. It doesn't bring anything new to the table but is very well written and researched and eventually not everybody here knows about them in that detail. Link
     
  23. Huntn macrumors G5

    Huntn

    Joined:
    May 5, 2008
    Location:
    The Misty Mountains
    #23
    Should we start a conversation about the intelligence of average Americans?... Naw. ;)
    --- Post Merged, Oct 17, 2016 ---
    See post 23. :oops:
     
  24. Huntn macrumors G5

    Huntn

    Joined:
    May 5, 2008
    Location:
    The Misty Mountains
    #24
    I can only take a small dose of Trust daily. You Trust guys are not a little bit embarrassed by the big tough guy crying like a baby every frick'n day?? So much for his vision for America, lying, hypocrite crying wolf, they are all pick' non me!!(boohoo), an enlarged ass, it stinks. If he had a normal group of followers, he'd be laughed off the stage.
     
  25. ibookg409 Suspended

    ibookg409

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2016
    Location:
    Portsmouth, NH
    #25
    This thread was a fun revisit tonight. So prophetic.
     

Share This Page