Will al-Sadr End Cease Fire?

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by mactastic, Feb 20, 2008.

  1. mactastic macrumors 68040

    mactastic

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2003
    Location:
    Colly-fornia
    #1
    Anyone who's paying attention knows the reason the "splurge" is working is because al-Sadr has instructed his troops to maintain a cease-fire that has been in place for six months now. During that time, Bush has steadfastly maintained that it was the increase in US troops that is responsible for the decrease in violence.

    So, what happens if al-Sadr (as he is being pressured to do by his people) doesn't extend the cease fire? If violence increases, will we hear the same people who claim that the reduction in violence is proof that the increase in US troops is working now admit that it an increase in violence means it's not working? Or will they point to an increase in violence as a sign that the "insurgents" are getting "desperate", perhaps even entering their "last throes"?
    And what are the odds al-Sadr will defy the will of his people, and will extend the cease-fire?
     
  2. Mike Teezie macrumors 68020

    Mike Teezie

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2002
    #2
    I'm praying that he does, for our people on the ground.

    How ridiculous is it that the entire point of the surge - creating a buffer of safety for political resolutions to commence - has been an utter failure. But no one seems to mention that. They say, "Oh, violence is down, the surge is working." The surge plus the cease-fire gave the Iraqi government probably the prettiest look at it they are ever going to get. Conditions seem to be there.

    I'm hoping against hope the cease-fire is extended. It seems to be the only chance this thing has, and that's a small one.
     
  3. miloblithe macrumors 68020

    miloblithe

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    Location:
    Washington, DC
    #3
    My brother in law is probably heading over in a few months. I definitely share your sentiments.

    But while I'm glad US fatalities are way down, I'm still not convinced the surge has been a great success.
     
  4. Mike Teezie macrumors 68020

    Mike Teezie

    Joined:
    Nov 20, 2002
    #4
    My brother is there now. All the people there are always on my mind.
     
  5. solvs macrumors 603

    solvs

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2002
    Location:
    LaLaLand, CA
    #5
    Even if we count the slight decrease in violence (we're only down to the level it was a few years ago, and mostly because the period before the surge was so bloody) none of the other goals have been met. No political reconciliation, their security force isn't anywhere near ready to take over for ours, and violence is still far higher than it should be. When we can leave, that's when it worked.
     
  6. miloblithe macrumors 68020

    miloblithe

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2003
    Location:
    Washington, DC
    #6
    Looks like he has extended the cease fire.

    US fatalities have been 40 per month or lower for the past 5 months. Previously , there have only ever been back-to-back months with 40 or lower US fatalities.

    In the most comparable "peaceful" period, 5/03 to 10/03, 225 US soldiers died in 6 months, or 37.5 per month. Over the past five months, 163 US soldiers have died, about 34 per month estimating the end of February. In other words, US soldiers are dying at their slowest rate of the war.

    http://icasualties.org/oif/

    Still a lot more than 0 though.
     
  7. mactastic thread starter macrumors 68040

    mactastic

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2003
    Location:
    Colly-fornia
    #7
    Ok, so what do we do about this guy? He appears content to try to wait out the American splurge. So we're going to spend and bleed in Iraq as long as this guy says he'll hold off his attacks - but we're under constant threat of him lifting that ban.

    We can't take him and his militia out because we'd lose all the hearts and minds we've already won, and we can't leave him in place because we can't leave until he's neutralized or his party has renounced violence and he's been incorporated into the Iraqi government.

    Doesn't sound like a recipe for success to me.
     

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