Anyone who's paying attention knows the reason the "splurge" is working is because al-Sadr has instructed his troops to maintain a cease-fire that has been in place for six months now. During that time, Bush has steadfastly maintained that it was the increase in US troops that is responsible for the decrease in violence. So, what happens if al-Sadr (as he is being pressured to do by his people) doesn't extend the cease fire? If violence increases, will we hear the same people who claim that the reduction in violence is proof that the increase in US troops is working now admit that it an increase in violence means it's not working? Or will they point to an increase in violence as a sign that the "insurgents" are getting "desperate", perhaps even entering their "last throes"? And what are the odds al-Sadr will defy the will of his people, and will extend the cease-fire?