Will Gas Prices Drop After 2008 Election? Ever?

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by OnlyMarcusCannn, Apr 30, 2008.

  1. OnlyMarcusCannn macrumors regular

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    Las Vegas, NV
    #1
    Ahhh, I remember when gas prices were under $1.49 a gallon pre-new millenia. Good times, good times. :p Now that I actually have a car of my own, and gas prices are (more than ever) a part of my ever-tightening budget, I'm curious.

    Could gas prices ever come back down to around that price? Could it happen as soon as the 2008 Election? Also, is there a solid reason as to why current oil prices keep rising, and so fast?
     
  2. atszyman macrumors 68020

    atszyman

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    #2
    If they come down it will be before the election only to jump back up immediately thereafter. It seems like gas prices always go down, the terror level goes up, and things are going really well in our wars right around election time...:rolleyes:
     
  3. glocke12 macrumors 6502a

    glocke12

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    #3
    I remember when they were about $0.99 a gallon. That wasnt that long ago either, maybe 1996 or so.

    Hate to tell ya, I think the prices we see now are here to stay.
     
  4. jb60606 macrumors 6502a

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    #4
    They're here to stay, and they're not done going up.
     
  5. PlaceofDis macrumors Core

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    Jan 6, 2004
    #5
    they will never go back down to that level. thats just fantasy.

    will they drop back below $3.50 possibly, but high gas prices are a reality that we as a nation have to accept and deal with. we need to invest in alternate forms of energy, yesterday. and get moving on that now. we need to get better alternate methods of transportation for our cities, too. but i know i'm dreaming on both those for the time being. perhaps when we hit $5/gallon things might change.
     
  6. Sun Baked macrumors G5

    Sun Baked

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    #6
    There are hints that the fuel market is being manipulated like the electricity market not too long ago also ...

    And the hints of agriculture being the next huge boom industry is the sort of thing that should make one scared also.

    If they clamp down on the energy market, those brokers and hedge funds might go into the food market to scalp money for their investors.
     
  7. Ugg macrumors 68000

    Ugg

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    #7
    All markets are being ruthlessly manipulated. The boom era created a great deal of wealth, much of it from 20% yearly returns. Wealthholders are not interested in a measly 5% a year anymore. If there's no way to legitimately get 20%, they'll create a way.
     
  8. Desertrat macrumors newbie

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    #8
    China and India, "Chindia", are building roads and cars. One projection I saw today, which looked at future demands for transportation fuel, guesstimated oil at $250/bbl before too many years, and gasoline at $8/gallon. I've also read that the U.S. military planners have already begun looking at future budgets based on oil at $250.

    Peak oil production occurred in mid-2005. New production is not exceeding rising demands, so no "manipulation" is needed to create high prices. It's a mix of existing legislation and Economics 101.

    Short-term, if our recession does cause a worldwide slowdown, oil prices might drop some. The idea of prices staying down, however, is wishful thinking at its worst.

    'Rat
     
  9. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #9
    Exactly, from my experience that is definitely the position on the ground, the people there all view cars as a status symbol and get them when they can afford them. Those countries are also growing richer, so more and more people can afford cars.

    In the UK we already pay $8/gallon and still use our cars a lot, I can see $20/gallon being sustainable.
     
  10. PlaceofDis macrumors Core

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    #10
    true, you do. but distance(s) traveled are likely different, along with more alternatives when needed
     
  11. Desertrat macrumors newbie

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    #11
    Eraserhead, you get into some economic condition by evolving into it. If, for instance, your gasoline prices went from $8 to $12 within a few months, it would have a severe impact.

    People here geared their operations to gasoline at no more than $2 for a good while. The rapid rise to $3.60 in a time of a decline in the economy is thus having that severe impact.
     
  12. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #12
    Absolutely, but that would apply to everyone, so I doubt it would happen unless there was a massive disruption to supply.
     
  13. Ugg macrumors 68000

    Ugg

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    #13
    In the end, we can keep bitching about it or do something about it.

    Wealth and prosperity is brought about by embracing new technology and new ways of thinking. The post WWII model of suburban wastefulness is bankrupt. What we need to start doing is embracing more compact and energy efficient ways of living.

    Ever since the advent of the "McMansions or Faux Chateaux" of the 90s, I've thought they will eventually face the same fate of the Victorian mansions of a century previous. The problems the McMansions face are mostly due to zoning and neighborhood associations. Both will have to change for them to be broken into multifamily housing. Even then, those endless cul de sacs wouldn't have the density necessary to create a viable transit system.

    There are a lot of bright spots and New Urbanism is taking hold. Unfortunately, even if we started today, it'll take a decade or two before there's a major change.

    Waiting for Detroit to start building 100 mpg automobiles is NOT a viable alternative.
     
  14. iJohnHenry macrumors P6

    iJohnHenry

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    #14
    But, but, the electric car was not in G.M.'s best interests.

    Don't you understand that??
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    (Chokes on sarcasm.)
     
  15. Sun Baked macrumors G5

    Sun Baked

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    #15
    Likely in California or a Texas served area this summer ...

    Don't worry, there will be 1 or 2 large refineries going down for maintenance this summer.

    Just happens a couple key pipelines will be shutting down for maintenance at the same time.

    As that is happening another refinery in the area will catch fire due to deferred maintenance.

    Spiking prices in a section of the US.

    ---

    Remember Phoenix almost got nailed with this, when a Kinder Morgan pipeline blew up, and then somebody dug up the Intel fab diesel supply line a few weeks later. Was also the time the Texas refineries kept blowing up. But it was a contained outage.
     
  16. MacNut macrumors Core

    MacNut

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    #16
    If I didn't know any better I would think that those events were planned to drive prices up. But that would just be silly.:rolleyes:
     
  17. SactoGuy18 macrumors 68020

    SactoGuy18

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    #17
    I'm kind of suspicious about the high price of oil now.

    With good reason: there's a lot of oil out there that have yet to be exploited. Thanks to modern oilfield production technology, we can now extract out much more oil out of an oilfield than in the past, thanks to gas injection with either steam or CO2 (a technology pioneered by Chevron to extract out highly-viscuous crude oil in California). In fact, the Middle Eastern countries probably sit on a lot more oil than they think if we apply these injection technologies to "force" out more oil. The potential is there for Iran and Iraq to double to triple its current production easily with modern technology.

    And we've barely begun to extract oil from under the sea floor. New technologies makes it possible to extract oil in waters over 10,000 feet deep, which means oil production well beyond the continental shelf.

    With current prices, alternatives to crude oil suddenly make sense. Thanks to developments in cellulosic enzyme processing, we are very close to making synthetic diesel fuel, gasoline and kerosene from plant material! :D Once this technology goes commercial all that agricultural waste suddenly becomes a very viable biomass fuel source.

    And with nanotechnology, solar power is no longer an extremely expensive proposition. Instead of costing US$30,000 per home for a solar installation, it will soon cost US$5,000 for the same installation (and will drop even further soon).
     
  18. MacNut macrumors Core

    MacNut

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    #18
    The following is a conspiracy theory.
    What if oil prices are being overly inflated by the oil companies trying to squeeze every last dollar they can before we find alternitives. They know that in 15 years they won't be making any money off of oil so they are pushing the prices way beyond there limits now to gain as much profit as they can.

    Way over the edge
    What if the high prices are a ploy to force people off of the oil. Proving a point that we need to be off oil. Notice that the prices only started to sky rockey after fear of global warming. I said that was over the edge./conspiracy
     
  19. Sun Baked macrumors G5

    Sun Baked

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    #19
    Phoenix got caught in the trap, but a couple of the refineries will likely shut down this summer.

    Most likely at a BP refinery for accidents.
     
  20. Ugg macrumors 68000

    Ugg

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    #20
    It also takes years and years to build the necessary infrastructure to extract deep sea oil. Right now there's a serious shortage of deep sea drilling rigs, much less people with the knowledge and the ability to operate them.

    Since oil jobs are good paying and many people got laid off in the 80s, that means there are a lot who are now retiring. So, that makes the shortage even worse.

    All the other "boutique" technologies for extending oilfield life also cost a lot of money. Extracting the last 10% increases costs phenomenally.

    There's no doubt that oil prices are being manipulated, especially given the incredibly shrinking dollar. However, ignoring the realities of the oil business doesn't get us much.
     
  21. Desertrat macrumors newbie

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    #21
    Ugg, you keep saying "manipulated". Who? How?

    'Rat
     
  22. Ugg macrumors 68000

    Ugg

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    #22
    Manipulated probably wasn't the right word. There's no doubt that people are jumping out of the stock market and into commodities. Oil's a pretty good bet right now, there's no way it's going to go down in price.

    Let's just say that oil pricing is being impacted by American overspending, oil being priced in dollars, greedy SWFs and hedge funds and general market fear.

    That's probably not manipulation in the truest sense of the word. Maybe the best way to put it is that we're finally paying the price for our own ignorance. Pricing oil in dollars has given us a huge global advantage for the past 30 years and those days are now over.
     
  23. Desertrat macrumors newbie

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    #23
    Okay. Gotcha.

    What's interesting to me is that many of the exporting governments have become accustomed to the high prices, and their own spending for subsidies depends on this rate of income. For instance, it is estimated that Chavez in Venezuela needs a minimum of $95 per barrel to stay afloat. Should a major recession reduce demand enough for oil to drop to $80 or $90, he'd be in even worse economic trouble than at present. Other exporters aren't that bad off, but they still need the high prices.

    Interesting times...
     
  24. stevento macrumors 6502

    stevento

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    Los Angeles
    #24
    well we have two oil CEOs in the white house now so me thinks so.
    oil went from $20 to $120 over the course of their administration.
    everyone says "the president doesn't set the price of oil" but you can't say it doesn't look like they are purposely doing things to increase the price of gas.
     
  25. hulugu macrumors 68000

    hulugu

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    the faraway towns
    #25
    I have to agree. In the long-term, if we significantly altered our energy economy to not need oil, there will be a point where oil will become cheap again, assuming it doesn't completely run out first.

    No. There's more to energy than cars, also. However, I think we're in the early stages of a transition away from sprawl towards a more measured, efficient consideration of building. We've spent far too much time allowing cities to be designed by land developers, rather than a thoughtful approach. There are lots of problems that stem from this, including water-use and energy use issues that will eat our lunch for the next decade. It's going to hurt. All change does.

    I'd like to blame Bush and his fellows, but the price of gas is because of a series of market-forces that they don't have control over. I've said before that I believe that the Executive offices as a few levers to pull and the administration has pulled them all and scored a jackpot for the oil industry, but it's not reasonable to believe Heckel and Jeckel are actively trying to torpedo the economy.
     

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