Will Greece leave the Eurozone, either on its own accord, or booted?

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by needfx, Jun 17, 2015.

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Will Greece leave the Eurozone, either on its own accord, or booted?

  1. Yes

  2. No

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  1. needfx macrumors 68040

    needfx

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    #1
    Just gauging the sentiment around.

    I've posted a few months back what I feel about the current government (election day), and apparently they are instigating this fallout with the EU community and the lenders.

    We're doomed
     
  2. aaronvan Suspended

    aaronvan

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    #2
    I'm going to long on Greek National Bank. After the Euroexit, Greece will still require a centralized capital source while they reorganize, and NGB will be the only game in town.
     
  3. needfx thread starter macrumors 68040

    needfx

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    #3
    syriza/anel goverment is giving the stink eye to head of GNB Giannis Stournaras. not sure how this will play out
     
  4. zin macrumors 6502

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    #4
    Greece owes Germany €56 billion.

    The Germans will get their money. Then they will let them fail.
     
  5. JamesMike macrumors demi-god

    JamesMike

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    #5
    The Germans are not happy campers right now.
     
  6. Happybunny, Jun 17, 2015
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2015

    Happybunny macrumors 68000

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    #6
    If you think that the Germans are unhappy, what do you think the average Greek is feeling right now, Rainbows and fluffy bunnies?

    The Greeks brought this problem on them selves, but it's going to be the person in the street who unfortunately who is going to have to pay the price.
    The standard of living for people in Greece has cut by as much as 35%, this is a scale which has never been seen in modern Europe.
    The lax Greek attitude to taxes, and the quite open nepotism of Greek life since the 1980's, has hardened the attitude of the Northern Countries of the EU.
    The people in Greece who did profit, well they have got their money safely stashed away, believe me.
    The problem for the EU now is if they give Greece a free pass other countries will demand similar deals. This is far more than just about money.
    Greece can and probably will block the renewal of sanctions against Russia in July, as it takes ALL leaders of the EU to agree. Plus there is the very real fear in some, that Russia will be able to use Greek Naval ports of it's warships.
     
  7. nebo1ss macrumors 68030

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    #7
    Russia is certain courting Greece. However, leaving the Euro Zone is one thing. Greece will still be a member of Nato so Russian warships are not going to be using Greek Naval ports anytime soon.
     
  8. Happybunny macrumors 68000

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    #8
    With this Greek Government are you that sure, what are you going to do if the do, Invade them, Bomb them?
     
  9. lowendlinux Contributor

    lowendlinux

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    #9
    The Germans won't get their money I'd imagine whats Germany going to do if they don't?
     
  10. Happybunny macrumors 68000

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    #10
    General feeling is like the rest of Northern Europe write it off. It's been on the cards for years now that we wouldn't get our money back, the real question was how much we were prepared to lose, and how much we wanted to punish the Greeks.
     
  11. lowendlinux Contributor

    lowendlinux

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    #11
    If they leave the euro zone they can't be punished. From what I recall Greek economy is based mostly in tourism them leaving the Euro will make traveling to Greece cheaper which should stimulate that sector a bit. The Drachma if valued based on real economic conditions will make Greek exports cheaper which will also give that sector a boost whether either of these will overcome the increased cost of imports I don't know. I think if I were the PM I'd be inclined to bail on the Euro it can't get any worse.
     
  12. Happybunny macrumors 68000

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    #12
    What I said was the reason Greece wasn't immediately thrown out of the EURO was partly to punish Greece, as a warning to others in the EURO zone, nobody will admit to this in public, but it's common knowledge around Brussels.
     
  13. lowendlinux Contributor

    lowendlinux

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    #13
    I believe that.
     
  14. sim667 macrumors 65816

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    #14
    They've had such a big Neo Nazi resurgence in greece lately, I'd be happy to see the back of them out of the EU with or without paying back what they owe..... But then thats easy for me to say as I'm not German.
     
  15. jeremy h macrumors 6502

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    #15
    If Greece really holds the line I suspect that Germany (Finland etc are another matter) will blink, as I think the fundamental problem isn't actually Greece, Germany or their relationship. Its that the architects of the Euro are trying to build a single state by creating a central bank and central currency while crossing their fingers and hoping the rather messy and difficult democratic mandates and political difficulties will just sort of resolve themselves or go away of their own accord. Having a central bank but not having political control of your regions (countries) and allowing all your regions to run independent economic policies is a recipe for disaster.

    We have a situation now where if Greece goes, it turns a 'rock solid' single currency into a simple exchange rate mechanism but if they stay it reinforces the idea that you can have large financial transfers from productive areas to relatively unproductive areas but without the oversight of a central government.

    I suspect they'll have to stay - if there is to be a big single state various countries will have to accept such financial transfers from rich areas to poor areas (just as there will have to an acceptance of some sort of binding single government) but of course selling that to individual electorates will mean that the can of political integration will be kicked down the road for quite a long way. Trying to stem the economic contagion of Greece leaving might prove a lot harder. But we'll see I guess.
     
  16. VulchR macrumors 68020

    VulchR

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    #16
    I know many Greeks who are suffering now. They are middle and working class (well, they were at any rate), but they were betrayed by the rich people in their country. Whatever happens, the EU should not punish people who are already becoming impoverished.

    And Happybunny is right: if it's 'goodbye Euro' it will be 'hello Russia'. The cost of bailing out Greece will be high, but the price of yet another fault line in Europe is higher. This is all about protecting German bankers, and frankly this time the bankers should be taught a lesson.
     
  17. unlinked macrumors 6502a

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    #17
    When did people paying their bills become punishment?

    Greeks just need to work a few more years before they retire and actually collect their taxes.
    Disaster averted.
     
  18. takao macrumors 68040

    takao

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    #18
    untill 2022 the 60% of the debt currently owned by the EZ has an interest rate of 0% with maturites decades into the future. (the IMF & T-Bill debt isn't interest free but still at reather generous rates). how is that punishment by the EU ? If it weren't for 3 instiutions greek saving accounts at greek banks would have been wiped in 2010.

    As a result of those EZ 0% rates Greece is paying less interest percentage wise than France and roughly the same as Austria in total despite having a bigger population.

    The problem is that they still haven't got a balanced budget even with debt excluded...

    the current 300+ billion debt, with the exception a of a handful of billions in T-Bills is owned by the ECB,IMF and EZ countries... thus taxpayers and not banks.

    The bankers got their lesson in 2012 when they received a 107 billion euro haircut. ... That's why Greece is a now toxic ground for any private investors.
     
  19. Scepticalscribe, Jun 18, 2015
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2015

    Scepticalscribe Contributor

    Scepticalscribe

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    #19
    Well, on this, I have to say that I think @Happybunny is largely right.

    However, this is about more than economics.

    As a member of the EU, Greece has played a singularly destructive and extraordinarily negative and obstructive game in the EU for decades, blocking chances of progress on Turkey (possible Turkish membership), Macedonia (that nonsense about the name of the country and denying recognition and support), and of course, on Cyprus.

    Between that, and its feckless and irresponsible elites, large defence budget, nepotism, corruption and lax attitude to taxation, the country has very little political capital left, and few friends in the rest of Europe.

    And then, of course, there are the links with Russia (the Greek part of Cyprus has long served as a safe space, and clearing house for peculiar Russian funds for years), links forged by a common religion (Orthodox Christianity) and some cultural ties, as well as sheer bloodymindedness, all of which bode ill for the future.

    However, I am surprised at the catastrophically poor negotiating skills of the Syriza Govt, especially Mr Tsipras and Dr Varoufakis - they have managed to alienate some who were even somewhat sympathetic to them until recently (such as the Italians, the French, and Mr Juncker).
     
  20. takao macrumors 68040

    takao

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    #20
    AFAIK the tourists numbers were close to record numbers anyway... at one point further increases will be difficult unless there is new money for infrastructure investments... nothing for the 1-3 year short term.

    Their next biggest "export" product is "shipping services". Since the greek flagged carriers don't pay tax by constitutional law they won't profit from that.
    THe 3rd one afaik is oil products .. but since that also depends on crude oil import it's a double edged sword.

    the imports costs will hurt a lot since they are running a substantial trade deficit.
    Non-food supermarket goods, consumer products, electronics,cars etc. are all very import dependant and even in the food sector they are running a trade deficit.

    either way it won't make life much easier if you are on a low income in greece
     
  21. aaronvan Suspended

    aaronvan

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    #21
    The two votes that Greece won't exit, I wonder why they based that on?
     
  22. jeremy h, Jun 18, 2015
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2015

    jeremy h macrumors 6502

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    #22
    I was one of them. If a country can crash out of the Euro it immediately becomes an exchange rate mechanism rather than a solid 'national' currency. Overall the Euro bloc can handle the Greek debt easily if they choose too - it depends as to whether the moral hazard that allowing Greece to stay without real reform* trumps the perceived risk of a disorderly exit to the other countries debt etc that make up the bloc. Is it a risk worth taking? A lot is being made of the now 'impregnable financial firewalls' etc by countries like Finland. We'll see how brave Merkel etc are feeling I guess...

    *If there is a deal I have no doubt this will be fudged.
     
  23. Happybunny macrumors 68000

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    #23
    This is going to make or break Angela, mutter is going to have to get tough, the German voters are never going to forgive another bailout.

    Al deals in the EU are fudged, it's called compromise, it's what happens when you have 28 different countries in the same union.:p
     
  24. Scepticalscribe, Jun 18, 2015
    Last edited: Jun 18, 2015

    Scepticalscribe Contributor

    Scepticalscribe

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    #24
    Agreed, (almost) all deals within the EU are compromises, which also allow for a degree of face-saving.

    In practice, traditionally, most participants have been able to get their own way on some issues, especially issues deemed of 'vital national importance' (what used to be the old veto). This meant that every participant could argue that they had achieved something in the negotiations that they could sell to their own electorates and elites as something worth having bargained for (and compromised over).

    So it was predicated on a situation of compromise, and of give and take, and - a lot of the time - the respective diplomats and politicians were quite sympathetic to, and understanding of, the domestic situations facing some of those across the table from them, and would seek to find ways of making things - outcomes - more palatable.

    But I am not sure that the desire or will to do that in the case of Greece exists any longer.

    Of course, Europe can easily 'afford' to cut the Greeks more slack - the economic arguments can be circumvented, or timetables amended, if there is a real will to do so, which I doubt exists with Greece.

    If a fudge is found, it will be for wider political reasons, (not least Russia) which may trump the almighty desire to punish the Greeks further economically. This has been coming for years; besides, Greece has few friends left, and - worse - has been busily alienating the few it had.
     
  25. jeremy h macrumors 6502

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    #25
    That's my point.

    If the Euro is like the ERM then Greece is stuffed ...

    If however it is actually the national currency for a nascent single state Europe - and the creation of which is something that the wealthy nations in Europe really, really want at all costs then the Greeks are currently in a surprisingly strong position.

    That is until there is full political integration (and they can be told what to do.)

    Happybunny - just thank your lucky stars we're not in it...
     

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