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Matthew Yohe
Jul 25, 2007, 03:39 PM
Apple Reports Third Quarter Results
Record June Quarter Revenue and Profit

“We’re thrilled to report the highest June quarter revenue and profit in Apple’s history, along with the highest quarterly Mac sales ever,” said Steve Jobs, Apple’s CEO. “iPhone is off to a great start—we hope to sell our one-millionth iPhone by the end of its first full quarter of sales—and our new product pipeline is very strong.”

http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2007/07/25results.html



MacRumors
Jul 25, 2007, 03:46 PM
http://www.macrumors.com/images/macrumorsthreadlogo.gif (http://www.macrumors.com)

Apple(R) today announced financial results for its fiscal 2007 third quarter ended June 30, 2007. The Company posted revenue of $5.41 billion and net quarterly profit of $818 million, or $.92 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $4.37 billion and net quarterly profit of $472 million, or $.54
per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 36.9 percent, up from 30.3 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 40 percent of the quarter's revenue.

Apple shipped 1,764,000 Macintosh(R) computers, representing 33 percent growth over the year-ago quarter and exceeding the previous company record for quarterly Mac(R) shipments by over 150,000. The Company also sold 9,815,000 iPods during the quarter, representing 21 percent growth over the
year-ago quarter.

Steve Jobs said "We're thrilled to report the highest June quarter revenue and profit
in Apple's history, along with the highest quarterly Mac sales ever" and expects to sell one million iPhones by the end of the 4th quarter.

Article Link (http://www.macrumors.com/2007/07/25/apple-posts-818-million-profit-for-3rd-quarter-2007/)

plumbingandtech
Jul 25, 2007, 03:47 PM
said Steve Jobs, Apple's CEO. "iPhone is off to a great start -- we hope to sell our one- millionth iPhone by the end of its first full quarter of sales --

Booyah.

Maui
Jul 25, 2007, 03:47 PM
"Apple shipped 1,764,000 Macintosh® computers, representing 33 percent growth over the year-ago quarter and exceeding the previous company record for quarterly Mac® shipments by over 150,000."

See, it is still a computer company after all. :D

Markleshark
Jul 25, 2007, 03:48 PM
33% Macintosh Growth and 21% iPod Growth. Thats fracking amazing.

KD7IWP
Jul 25, 2007, 03:48 PM
It's already 2pm pacific time?

Lancetx
Jul 25, 2007, 03:49 PM
270,000 iPhones were sold in the first 30 hours that they were available. AT&T says they only activated 146,000 of those 270,000 in that same time period. Sounds like a lot more than just 2% had activation problems then. Some of the difference is due to iPhones being bought as gifts, or phones not being opened and activation attempted immediately, etc, but still. At least iPhone sales weren't nearly as dire as some had predicted yesterday. 270K sold in only 30 hours is definitely a strong start.

kskill
Jul 25, 2007, 03:50 PM
Booyashacka

And It'll only be getting better from here with Leopard, new iMacs, iPhone, and whatever else Apple whips up.

Helloooooo AAPL

FoxyKaye
Jul 25, 2007, 03:50 PM
You'd think that with all that money, they could update the Mac lineup and ship Leopard before the snow falls.

FreeState
Jul 25, 2007, 03:50 PM
It's already 2pm pacific time?


Thats from Apples press release on their site, they always release that early. I believe the conference starts at 2:00 (its 1:50 right now).

plumbingandtech
Jul 25, 2007, 03:50 PM
It's already 2pm pacific time?

They usually release the press release 15 minutes early.

slughead
Jul 25, 2007, 03:50 PM
It's already 2pm pacific time?

No.

Multimedia
Jul 25, 2007, 03:50 PM
Who can deny Apple and the Mac are gradually gaining popularity more each quarter? :eek: :)

AdeFowler
Jul 25, 2007, 03:50 PM
Nice to see mac sales on the upside.

KD7IWP
Jul 25, 2007, 03:51 PM
ah, thank you, I was quite confused as you could tell :)

Chaszmyr
Jul 25, 2007, 03:51 PM
So I guess the iPhone sales aren't so great, which makes me sad. However, Mac sales are even cooler than iPhone sales!

Hopstretch
Jul 25, 2007, 03:51 PM
They sold 270,000 iPhones in the last two days of the quarter. The "iPhone Flops!" stories were a little premature.

KD7IWP
Jul 25, 2007, 03:52 PM
If only they had released this while the market was still open so that my AAPL could repair itself from yesterday.

plumbingandtech
Jul 25, 2007, 03:52 PM
So I guess the iPhone sales aren't so great, which makes me sad. However, Mac sales are even cooler than iPhone sales!

Huh? Not so great?

Stop believing analysts. Most are professional guessers.

Cfour
Jul 25, 2007, 03:53 PM
We're all so sad to see a company that takes our money do well but man what a profit, I feel proud to be an Apple supporter, yes sad but true.
I think they hold a different place in our hearts than other companies.
Can only get better as well *he says as he touches wood*

Cfour

FreeState
Jul 25, 2007, 03:53 PM
They sold 270,000 iPhones in the last two days of the quarter. The "iPhone Flops!" stories were a little premature.

Yeah thats in 30 hours.. there are another 24 hours in the initial weekend. Id guess 400,000 the first weekend easy.

Peace
Jul 25, 2007, 03:53 PM
270,000 iPhones were sold in the first 30 hours that they were available. AT&T says they only activated 146,000 of those 270,000 in that same time period. Sounds like a lot more than just 2% had activation problems then. Some of the difference is due to iPhones being bought as gifts, or phones not being opened and activation attempted immediately, etc, but still. At least iPhone sales weren't nearly as dire as some had predicted yesterday. 270K sold in only 30 hours is definitely a strong start.

Read the data sheet closer :
http://images.apple.com/pr/pdf/q307data_sum.pdf

"(6) Consists of iPhones and Apple-branded and third-party iPhone accessories.
"

illegalprelude
Jul 25, 2007, 03:54 PM
now come the hell on stocks. Tomorrow, you better break $144!

Markleshark
Jul 25, 2007, 03:54 PM
Yeah, id say half a million in the full weekend. Wow.

plumbingandtech
Jul 25, 2007, 03:54 PM
If only they had released this while the market was still open so that my AAPL could repair itself from yesterday.

It should tomorrow. Finally we have some real iphone numbers and they are great!

dr_lha
Jul 25, 2007, 03:54 PM
So I guess the iPhone sales aren't so great, which makes me sad. However, Mac sales are even cooler than iPhone sales!
The only thing not great about iPhone sales is people's ridiculously high expectations. The fact is that the iPhone is an expensive device, entering a marketplace of cheap/free phones (yes, we all know in real terms they're not cheap, but that doesn't matter to the consumer), with a required extra $20 a month on top of people's regular bill.

Given this I think > 1/4 million on 30 hours is pretty spectacular.

Hopstretch
Jul 25, 2007, 03:55 PM
So I guess the iPhone sales aren't so great, which makes me sad.
Er, they sold two iPhones per second in that first 1-1/2 day stretch. How much faster can you shovel $600 gadgets out the door?

j/k/Andy
Jul 25, 2007, 03:55 PM
"The Company posted revenue of $5.41 billion and net quarterly profit of $818 million, or $.92 per diluted share."


I think the WS was expecting $.72 :eek:

also 270,000 iphone sales.

PlaceofDis
Jul 25, 2007, 03:56 PM
good work apple.

even with this good news, some people are never happy.

Lancetx
Jul 25, 2007, 03:57 PM
Read the data sheet closer :
http://images.apple.com/pr/pdf/q307data_sum.pdf

"(6) Consists of iPhones and Apple-branded and third-party iPhone accessories.
"

Well, I seriously doubt they sold 100,000 iPhone docks and headphones in the first 30 hours since those are included with the iPhone, so I highly doubt that makes up much of the total. I'm sure this is a question that will be asked during the conference call for clarification, so we'll see what they say.

Hopstretch
Jul 25, 2007, 03:58 PM
Read the data sheet closer :

"(6) Consists of iPhones and Apple-branded and third-party iPhone accessories.
"
Ooh. That is sneaky.

Yankees 4 Life
Jul 25, 2007, 04:00 PM
The Street (http://www.thestreet.com/s/apple-says-iphone-off-to-great-start/newsanalysis/techtelecom/10370227.html?cm_ven=CNNMONEY&cm_cat=Free&cm_pla=Feed&cm_ite=Feed&puc=cnnmoney?puc=_cnnmoney) is reporting 270,000 sold straight up w/o periferals. Stupid AT&T trying to screw up my apple stock because their employees didnt get free iPhones...

altglbrs
Jul 25, 2007, 04:00 PM
Read the data sheet closer :
http://images.apple.com/pr/pdf/q307data_sum.pdf

"(6) Consists of iPhones and Apple-branded and third-party iPhone accessories.
"

$5,000,000 revenue on 270,000 units... do the math and you'll see that quite a few of those "units" weren't iPhones.

Sbrocket
Jul 25, 2007, 04:01 PM
Nasdaq's After Hours quotes already shows AAPL shooting up from where it was prior to the press release, although its about even with the market close price still right now. They're volatile, though. We'll have to see what happens tomorrow.

Project
Jul 25, 2007, 04:01 PM
there werent any Apple branded accessories

Hairball
Jul 25, 2007, 04:02 PM
You'd think that with all that money, they could update the Mac lineup and ship Leopard before the snow falls.

I agree totally. When will iLife, iWork and the iMac updates ever come to light? :confused:

plumbingandtech
Jul 25, 2007, 04:02 PM
$5,000,000 revenue on 270,000 units... do the math and you'll see that quite a few of those "units" weren't iPhones.

Does that 5 mean 5 million or 50 million?

EDIT: Seems like 5? Maybe its the delayed charging coming into play?

GUess they will ask on the cast.

Chupa Chupa
Jul 25, 2007, 04:02 PM
All this growth is proof that the economy is in shambles, Macs and iPods are overpriced, and Apple is a doomed company.

Sbrocket
Jul 25, 2007, 04:03 PM
The Street (http://www.thestreet.com/s/apple-says-iphone-off-to-great-start/newsanalysis/techtelecom/10370227.html?cm_ven=CNNMONEY&cm_cat=Free&cm_pla=Feed&cm_ite=Feed&puc=cnnmoney?puc=_cnnmoney) is reporting 270,000 sold straight up w/o periferals. Stupid AT&T trying to screw up my apple stock because their employees didnt get free iPhones...

Then, embarrassingly enough, "The Street" needs to check its facts and math before it puts out reports. Silly media outlets.

Does that 5 mean 5 million or 50 million?

5M = $5,000,000 = 5 million

whatever
Jul 25, 2007, 04:03 PM
You'd think that with all that money, they could update the Mac lineup and ship Leopard before the snow falls.

I don't understand your statement.

What's the correlation between money, refreshed project lines and software development?

Do you really think that throwing more money at Leopard or any other software project would speed up development and testing?

And exactly what's wrong with the Mac product lineup. From this report, people are buying them.

Your statement makes no sense.

Project
Jul 25, 2007, 04:04 PM
Does that 5 mean 5 million or 50 million?

5m - but the revenue is being spread out over 2 years.

djlu
Jul 25, 2007, 04:04 PM
Read the data sheet closer :
http://images.apple.com/pr/pdf/q307data_sum.pdf

"(6) Consists of iPhones and Apple-branded and third-party iPhone accessories.
"

May not be an issue; if you look at the iPod accessories they do not post units only revenue. It may be the same for the iPhone.

Peace
Jul 25, 2007, 04:05 PM
$5,000,000 revenue on 270,000 units... do the math and you'll see that quite a few of those "units" weren't iPhones.


The iPhone revenues are being spread out over a 12 month period.
Multiply $5 Mil, X 12 = $60 Mil. in sales the first 2 days.

altglbrs
Jul 25, 2007, 04:05 PM
5m - but the revenue is being spread out over 2 years.

Unless you're buying the phone with some wacky Apple financing, you're paying the purchase price at time of purchase. Those numbers don't add up...

Yankees 4 Life
Jul 25, 2007, 04:05 PM
Hey guys, dont forget that they dont account for all revenues for each iphone sold immediately, so this is only a portion of all iphones sold, which is why 5,000,000 seems like a small number. Remember they are doing a different type of accounting method, accruing revenues over time instead of upfront. Also, there werent any apple branded accessories.

FreeState
Jul 25, 2007, 04:05 PM
Then, embarrassingly enough, "The Street" needs to check its facts and math before it puts out reports. Silly media outlets.



5M = $5,000,000 = 5 million


Or people here need to learn to read Accounting charts. When the chart says Units is means units. The other items are included in the revenue not the units. 270,000 is the correct number of units sold.

EDIT to add look at the chart for iPod accessories - note how many units it lists (none).

Rot'nApple
Jul 25, 2007, 04:05 PM
So I guess the iPhone sales aren't so great, which makes me sad. However, Mac sales are even cooler than iPhone sales!

Apple.com - "said Steve Jobs, Apple’s CEO. “iPhone is off to a great start—we hope to sell our one-millionth iPhone by the end of its first full quarter of sales-"

1,000,000 iPhones in the first 3 months and two days after introduction. Beats MS Zune player for a million by June or around 8 months. Wonder what Steve Ballmer is saying now about the most expensive phone that is not a great e-mail device because it doesn't have a keyboard, etc.? :D

plumbingandtech
Jul 25, 2007, 04:06 PM
The iPhone revenues are being spread out over a 12 month period.
Multiply $5 Mil, X 12 = $60 Mil. in sales the first 2 days.

Then the ATT numbers are about right.

Chupa Chupa
Jul 25, 2007, 04:06 PM
Then, embarrassingly enough, "The Street" needs to check its facts and math before it puts out reports. Silly media outlets.


The "Street" is upfront that the numbers they toss out are estimates. It's the MSM that keeps reporting these estimates as fact. It's just lazy reporting and lazy listeners that believe anything that has the MSM imprimatur.

Hopstretch
Jul 25, 2007, 04:07 PM
$5,000,000 revenue on 270,000 units... do the math and you'll see that quite a few of those "units" weren't iPhones.
Doesn't tell you anything. They're not booking all the iPhone sale revenue at once. It's being deferred over a two-year period so they can provide software enhancements without having to levy the stupid charge that came with the wireless-n upgrades.

WildCowboy
Jul 25, 2007, 04:07 PM
The iPhone revenues are being spread out over a 12 month period.
Multiply $5 Mil, X 12 = $60 Mil. in sales the first 2 days.

I thought it was 24 months, or $120 million total. That makes an average selling price per item of $444, which sounds more reasonable.

mozmac
Jul 25, 2007, 04:07 PM
Anyone having trouble connecting to the Financial Conference Call? I don't know if my corporate network is cutting me off or if it's just crappy QuickTime streaming doing it's thing. I have not been impressed with QuickTime streaming since day 1.

Peace
Jul 25, 2007, 04:07 PM
Then the ATT numbers are about right.

Yup

Project
Jul 25, 2007, 04:07 PM
Unless you're buying the phone with some wacky Apple financing, you're paying the purchase price at time of purchase. Those numbers don't add up...

No, you are wrong.


Peace, revenue is being deferred over 24 months, not 12

neutrino23
Jul 25, 2007, 04:07 PM
$5,000,000 revenue on 270,000 units... do the math and you'll see that quite a few of those "units" weren't iPhones.

Not to contradict you directly, but since Apple said they would realize the revenue from the iPhones over a (two year?) period can you simply take that revenue number and divide that by 270,000? Don't you need a correction factor of some sort?

Sbrocket
Jul 25, 2007, 04:07 PM
Or people here need to learn to read Accounting charts. When the chart says Units is means units. The other items are included in the revenue not the units. 270,000 is the correct number of units sold.

Except that "The Street"'s article clearly states "Apple sold 270,000 iPhones in its just completed fiscal third quarter, the company said Wednesday." which is clearly false.

Chupa Chupa
Jul 25, 2007, 04:08 PM
The iPhone revenues are being spread out over a 12 month period.
Multiply $5 Mil, X 12 = $60 Mil. in sales the first 2 days.

Apple iPhone revenues are spread out over 24 months, the life of the contract.

whatever
Jul 25, 2007, 04:09 PM
Huh? Not so great?

Stop believing analysts. Most are professional guessers.

Amen to that brother.

I bought Apple back after the stock tanked in 2000 (for no reason) and my broker thought I was crazy. I explained to him that I believed and understood what the company was doing (something that Warren Buffett recommends) and bought. When the stock ran to $45, I was stoked. Sold some after the spilt and watched it run again and again. On Monday I was advised to sell, but choose to hold on.

I heard from more people that AT&T said that they sold 146,000 iPhones (which is still a record for phone sales in 30 hours) and I kept explaining that they AT&T stated an activation number, no more. But no one wanted to understand that. Oh well.

CmdrLaForge
Jul 25, 2007, 04:10 PM
Wow - congrats Apple. Those are great numbers. I am a happy stock owner. :)

FreeState
Jul 25, 2007, 04:11 PM
Then the ATT numbers are about right.

No it isnt. That 270000 is UNITS there are no units accounted for with accessories.

Peace
Jul 25, 2007, 04:11 PM
gotcha on the correction

so

$5M x 24 = $120M.If we average the iPhone to $525 we get about 220,000

AT&T really screwed up activation those first 2 days.

plumbingandtech
Jul 25, 2007, 04:12 PM
No it isnt. That 270000 is UNITS there are no units accounted for with accessories.

Why the "and" then?


iPhone and Related Products and Services (6):confused:

dicklacara
Jul 25, 2007, 04:12 PM
Nasdaq's After Hours quotes already shows AAPL shooting up from where it was prior to the press release, although its about even with the market close price still right now. They're volatile, though. We'll have to see what happens tomorrow.

I show it up $7.83 (for the day) ... now $8.64 to $143.51

diehardmacfan
Jul 25, 2007, 04:12 PM
what do you all think about AAPL share price tomorrow. Will it go up alot??

IJ Reilly
Jul 25, 2007, 04:13 PM
Nasdaq's After Hours quotes already shows AAPL shooting up from where it was prior to the press release, although its about even with the market close price still right now. They're volatile, though. We'll have to see what happens tomorrow.

Falling in after-hours, actually, by around $2-3/share.

The focus is going to be on the iPhone numbers which aren't as spectacular as some expected, and Apple's typically cautious guidance for the 4th quarter.

Sbrocket
Jul 25, 2007, 04:13 PM
I show it up $7.83 (for the day) ... now $8.64 to $143.51

That's how far its gotten since I posted that.

FreeState
Jul 25, 2007, 04:13 PM
Why the "and" then?


iPhone and Related Products and Services (6):confused:

Look at the chart. How is it done for the iPod? They have it broken down into two lines and no units listed for the iPod accessories

A Pittarelli
Jul 25, 2007, 04:14 PM
apple stock went crazy today

j/k/Andy
Jul 25, 2007, 04:14 PM
270,000 iphones sold was just stated on the conference call

plumbingandtech
Jul 25, 2007, 04:15 PM
Look at the chart. How is it done for the iPod? They have it broken down into two lines and no units listed for the iPod accessories

gotcha.

FreeState
Jul 25, 2007, 04:15 PM
270,000 iphones sold was just stated on the conference call

Thank you.

iSee
Jul 25, 2007, 04:15 PM
LOL! The people who write these reports are so clever.

270,000 in "iPhones and Apple-branded and third-party iPhone accessories" sold during the first two days of sales for the iPhone.

I thought there's no way they can avoid the bad news for the couple of days that are in the quarter.

'Course, reading between the lines: obscuring exactly how many iPhones were sold means they, themselves are disappointed by the sales (so the much higher figures estimated around launch weren't just analysts' expectations, but might have been in line with Apple's own expectations).

Interesting...

gnasher729
Jul 25, 2007, 04:16 PM
Ooh. That is sneaky.

Oppenheimer says 270,000 iPhones sold in 30 hours.

plumbingandtech
Jul 25, 2007, 04:16 PM
Thank you.

This is WAY better news then.

I wish i could buy a bunch of stock.

IJ Reilly
Jul 25, 2007, 04:16 PM
That's how far its gotten since I posted that.

Where are you getting these numbers? Yahoo sez:

After Hours: 134.94 down 2.32 (1.69%) as of 5:00PM ET on 07/25/07

FreeState
Jul 25, 2007, 04:17 PM
LOL! The people who write these reports are so clever.



I thought there's no way they can avoid the bad news for the couple of days that are in the quarter.

'Course, reading between the lines: obscuring exactly how many iPhones were sold means they, themselves are disappointed by the sales (so the much higher figures estimated around launch weren't just analysts' expectations, but might have been in line with Apple's own expectations).

Interesting...

No its not sneaky there were 270,000 iPhones sold in the first 30 hours.

RZetlin
Jul 25, 2007, 04:17 PM
Is Steve Balmer still laughing at the iPhone (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C5oGaZIKYvo)?

skoops
Jul 25, 2007, 04:17 PM
Oppenheimer says 270,000 iPhones sold in 30 hours.

That would be exactly 2.5 iPhones per second! OMG

Lancetx
Jul 25, 2007, 04:17 PM
270,000 iPhones sold during the quarter was indeed confirmed during the conference call. That number does not include any accessories...

Apple only sold iPhones during the final 30 hours of the quarter, as they went on sale on June 29th. Despite AT&T's recent news that it only activated 146,000 iPhones for the quarter, but Apple CFO Peter Oppenheimer revealed that the company sold 270,000 iPhones through its stores and AT&T stores during those 30 hours.

aricher
Jul 25, 2007, 04:17 PM
I show it up $7.83 (for the day) ... now $8.64 to $143.51

Where are you seeing that after hours data? I'm seeing:

After Hours: 136.74 -0.38 (-0.28%) - Jul 25, 5:02PM ET

CANEHDN
Jul 25, 2007, 04:18 PM
Every quarter I ask myself why I don't purchase Apple stock. And every quarter I never do. What is wrong with me?

shawnce
Jul 25, 2007, 04:19 PM
No it isnt. That 270000 is UNITS there are no units accounted for with accessories. I believe you are correct. The unit value refers to the iPhone while the other stuff and the iPhone revenue show up in the revenue item (at least what little revenue they could book from those 270k iPhones that month).

skoops
Jul 25, 2007, 04:19 PM
Where are you seeing that after hours data? I'm seeing:

After Hours: 136.74 -0.38 (-0.28%) - Jul 25, 5:02PM ET

I'm seeing the same... but then... googles quotes are delayed

http://finance.google.com/finance?q=aapl

iSee
Jul 25, 2007, 04:20 PM
LOL! The people who write these reports are so clever.



I thought there's no way they can avoid the bad news for the couple of days that are in the quarter.

'Course, reading between the lines: obscuring exactly how many iPhones were sold means they, themselves are disappointed by the sales (so the much higher figures estimated around launch weren't just analysts' expectations, but might have been in line with Apple's own expectations).

Interesting...

OK, OK, never mind. It's 270,000 iPhones sold.
Sorry, I was just going by the article summary... (which now has been changed)

mozmac
Jul 25, 2007, 04:20 PM
Where are you seeing that after hours data? I'm seeing:

After Hours: 136.74 -0.38 (-0.28%) - Jul 25, 5:02PM ET

The price is jumping around so much in after-hours that by the time you post here, it has already changed. Check it out on Google Finance and you'll see it moving.

I can't get on the conference call unfortunately. Must be a problem with my corporate network. Anyone else having problems?

plumbingandtech
Jul 25, 2007, 04:21 PM
That would be exactly 2.5 iPhones per second! OMG

Take out the time the store was closed on friday night.

??

Maui
Jul 25, 2007, 04:21 PM
Where are you seeing that after hours data? I'm seeing:

After Hours: 136.74 -0.38 (-0.28%) - Jul 25, 5:02PM ET

It is bouncing around flat, now heading up a bit.

After Hours: 136.60 0.66 (0.48%) as of 5:05PM ET on 07/25/07

WildCowboy
Jul 25, 2007, 04:21 PM
NASDAQ site (http://www.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/ExtendedTradingTrades.aspx?mode=frameset&page=afterhours&symbol=&selected=aapl&mkttype=AFTER) is showing real-time after-hours trading in the low $142 range right now.

Edit: And continuing to rise.

macidiot
Jul 25, 2007, 04:21 PM
Another round of blowout earnings. Another quarter where the analysts yet again got it completely wrong. At least the analysts are consistent. They have now been wrong for about 10 years straight. Well done.

The big story here was not the iPhone. It was Mac sales. Mac sales were impressive.

Expect strong follow through next quarter from back to school buying. Following that, leopard, new laptops and new desktops will fuel the Mac line through the end of the year. US market share should be near 10% by the end of the year.

Expect a full iPod refresh in the next few months, spurring sales there, though there might be some cannibalization from the iPhone.

Jobs stated that he expects sales of 1 million iPhones by the end of the year. Which means he expects to sell a lot more than 1 million.

The iPhone story is 1-2 years from now. However, I see Apple moving 1.3 million by the end of the year (stunning for a smartphone, btw). If Apple comes out with an iPhone-lite, priced at 300, expect sales to double or triple. However, I don't see a low-priced iPhone until Macworld at the earliest.

As usual, Wall St. will get it wrong with forward guidance from Apple. At this point I think it's a game with Apple. How low can we guide estimates and blow them away without pissing off the individual investor? I can just see Apple execs snickering and saying "we should tell them we don't expect to make any money next quarter, just to see what happens..."

One has to wonder when Wall St. analysts will get it. They did a bit last quarter when they forecast well above Apple guidance. But they still got it wrong by a large margin.

One of these days, the analysts might actually have to work for a paycheck. But I doubt it.

dicklacara
Jul 25, 2007, 04:22 PM
Where are you getting these numbers? Yahoo sez:

After Hours: 134.94 down 2.32 (1.69%) as of 5:00PM ET on 07/25/07

I have a real time Interactive Brokers account ...

AAPL is now $143.50, up $8.61 for the day

Oops is up over $9.30

Now over $10.00

IJ Reilly
Jul 25, 2007, 04:23 PM
I'm seeing the same... but then... googles quotes are delayed

So are the Yahoo quotes, by around 15 minutes. As of 5:06 PM AAPL is down slightly in after-hours trading. If someone is getting real-time, I wish they'd share.

Sbrocket
Jul 25, 2007, 04:24 PM
Where are you seeing that after hours data? I'm seeing:

After Hours: 136.74 -0.38 (-0.28%) - Jul 25, 5:02PM ET

Those are delayed, since its 5:23PM ET right now. The after hours prices are jumping all over the place right now. You can get realtime quotes on Nasdaq.com.

http://quotes.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/ExtendedTradingTrades.aspx?mode=&page=afterhours&symbol=AAPL&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&selected=AAPL&FormType=&kind=&Leap=&mkttype=after&sel=afterhours&userinput=&x=14&y=14

Right now its showing After Hours price at $144.10, and that's happened in the last 10 minutes.

skoops
Jul 25, 2007, 04:24 PM
AAPL stocks are up through the roof....

See NASDAQ for live after hour quotes (http://quotes.nasdaq.com/aspxcontent/ExtendedTradingcharts.aspx?mode=&page=afterhours&symbol=AAPL&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&symbol=&selected=aapl&FormType=&kind=&Leap=&mkttype=after&sel=afterhours&userinput=&x=13&y=12)

DaBrain
Jul 25, 2007, 04:24 PM
Apple(R) today announced financial results for its fiscal 2007 third quarter ended June 30, 2007. The Company posted revenue of $5.41 billion and net quarterly profit of $818 million, or $.92 per diluted share. These results compare to revenue of $4.37 billion and net quarterly profit of $472 million, or $.54
per diluted share, in the year-ago quarter. Gross margin was 36.9 percent, up from 30.3 percent in the year-ago quarter. International sales accounted for 40 percent of the quarter's revenue.

Apple shipped 1,764,000 Macintosh(R) computers, representing 33 percent growth over the year-ago quarter and exceeding the previous company record for quarterly Mac(R) shipments by over 150,000. The Company also sold 9,815,000 iPods during the quarter, representing 21 percent growth over the
year-ago quarter.

Steve Jobs said "We're thrilled to report the highest June quarter revenue and profit
in Apple's history, along with the highest quarterly Mac sales ever" and expects to sell one million iPhones by the end of the 4th quarter.

WTG Apple! So much for all the negative bruhaha yesterday! Just Awesome!

Now throw in new iPods, iMacs, Leopard etc... etc....
and Apple will have another amazing Quarter!

So much for all the negative hype!

Congrats again Apple! :)

odedia
Jul 25, 2007, 04:24 PM
Damn it, I can't listen to the conference. I get a pic on quicktime, and a 1 second silent audio clip.

diehardmacfan
Jul 25, 2007, 04:24 PM
ha u hear that??

"we've got some product transitions that i can't get in to"

he said that speaking of the next quarter, which ends september 29th!!!!

plumbingandtech
Jul 25, 2007, 04:25 PM
More iPhones sold in one weekend then ATT has ever sold of any other phone in one month!

(from the cast.)

iSee
Jul 25, 2007, 04:25 PM
So, with 146K phones activated, and 270K sold in the first 30 hours, that means 46% of people who bought iPhones in the first two days didn't activate them in the first two days!!!

How can that be? Am I so different than so many other people that bought them? I couldn't wait to get home and activate mine. I know the delay would be unavoidable for some people, but 46%???

Maybe ATT is completely BS'ing about only 2% of people having activation issues. Or maybe their accounting is sloppy and they really only got the first day's activation numbers or something. :confused::confused::confused:

IJ Reilly
Jul 25, 2007, 04:26 PM
I have a real time Interactive Brokers account ...

AAPL is now $143.50, up $8.61 for the day

Oops i up over $9.30

Okay then, thanks! And you do mean after hours, correct? AAPL closed at $137.26 in regular trading, up $2.37.

skoops
Jul 25, 2007, 04:26 PM
Whoop, they just confirmed - Selling the iphone in europe starting next quarter in a few major countries

plumbingandtech
Jul 25, 2007, 04:27 PM
Took apple almost 2 years to sell 1 million ipods.

Will take about one quarter for iphone.


Did I hear this correct?!

WOW!

bommai
Jul 25, 2007, 04:28 PM
Where are you getting these numbers? Yahoo sez:

After Hours: 134.94 down 2.32 (1.69%) as of 5:00PM ET on 07/25/07

Unlike normal trading day, after hour trading is extremely volatile. So, don't post any numbers here - it will be wrong after a couple of minutes.

tadunne
Jul 25, 2007, 04:29 PM
So I'm guessing they sold 250k on the first weekend then another 250k during the rest of July.

Then if they sell another 250k in Aug and Sept then I guess that will make the 1 million figure by the end of the sept quarter?

Peace
Jul 25, 2007, 04:30 PM
So, with 146K phones activated, and 270K sold in the first 30 hours, that means 46% of people who bought iPhones in the first two days didn't activate them in the first two days!!!

How can that be? Am I so different than so many other people that bought them? I couldn't wait to get home and activate mine. I know the delay would be unavoidable for some people, but 46%???

Maybe ATT is completely BS'ing about only 2% of people having activation issues. Or maybe their accounting is sloppy and they really only got the first day's activation numbers or something. :confused::confused::confused:


I kept telling people that a 40% figure on whacky activations problems was right.


And I was right.


AT&T was trying to cover their *** for their screw-up.

dicklacara
Jul 25, 2007, 04:30 PM
Okay then, thanks! And you do mean after hours, correct? AAPL closed at $137.26 in regular trading, up $2.37.

my latest price $146.00 up $11.11 for the day

FreeState
Jul 25, 2007, 04:31 PM
So I'm guessing they sold 250k on the first weekend then another 250k during the rest of July.

Then if they sell another 250k in Aug and Sept then I guess that will make the 1 million figure by the end of the sept quarter?


The 270,000 is for Friday and Saturday and does not include Sunday. Im guessing it was over 400000 the first weekend.

defeated
Jul 25, 2007, 04:31 PM
news.com indicates that 270,000 might include iphone accessories, such as headset, etc

plumbingandtech
Jul 25, 2007, 04:31 PM
Jobs stated that he expects sales of 1 million iPhones by the end of the year. Which means he expects to sell a lot more than 1 million.


He said end of next quarter not year.end of sept.

2.25 million iphones american by the end of the year.
.75 euro iphone sales by the end of the year.

iphone jr. = 2million sales?

total end of year: 5 million units?


(assuming the jr is real.)

thoughts?

FreeState
Jul 25, 2007, 04:32 PM
news.com indicates that 270,000 might include iphone accessories, such as headset, etc


News.com is wrong per the conference call.

Lyle
Jul 25, 2007, 04:33 PM
We're all so sad to see a company that takes our money do well but man what a profit, I feel proud to be an Apple supporter, yes sad but true.What are you talking about? Who's sad about this (besides you, apparently)? :confused:

Peace
Jul 25, 2007, 04:33 PM
1 millionth by the end of September per conference call.

Sbrocket
Jul 25, 2007, 04:33 PM
Guys, just remember that After Hours trading is never stable by any means. This isn't the regular market.

Nevertheless, Nasdaq After Hours quotes show $145.50. WOW

plumbingandtech
Jul 25, 2007, 04:34 PM
news.com indicates that 270,000 might include iphone accessories, such as headset, etc

Oppenheimer said 270k iPhones sold.

IJ Reilly
Jul 25, 2007, 04:35 PM
Unlike normal trading day, after hour trading is extremely volatile. So, don't post any numbers here - it will be wrong after a couple of minutes.

After hours trading is thin and more volatile, but not that volatile. The real problem is I was viewing quotes delayed by 15 minutes. I'm grateful that some people were willing to post their real-time quotes. I was seeing AAPL down by as much as $3.00 in after hours.

skoops
Jul 25, 2007, 04:35 PM
After Hours
High: $ 147.44

Thats over $10+ from closing time - so the aapl went up 10 bucks in less than 40 minutes :)

dicklacara
Jul 25, 2007, 04:36 PM
Guys, just remember that After Hours trading is never stable by any means. This isn't the regular market.

Nevertheless, Nasdaq After Hours quotes show $145.50. WOW

True.. but is usually an indication of direction and range for tomorrow...

Latest $!47.98 up $13.10 for the day

rob@robburns.co
Jul 25, 2007, 04:37 PM
So, with 146K phones activated, and 270K sold in the first 30 hours, that means 46% of people who bought iPhones in the first two days didn't activate them in the first two days!!!

How can that be? Am I so different than so many other people that bought them? I couldn't wait to get home and activate mine. I know the delay would be unavoidable for some people, but 46%???

Maybe ATT is completely BS'ing about only 2% of people having activation issues. Or maybe their accounting is sloppy and they really only got the first day's activation numbers or something. :confused::confused::confused:

The 270,000 figure includes online purchases. It also likely includes over 100,000 customers switching from another carrier. Many of those switchers can take longer than expected and have mistakes in the number transfer that AT&T would not include in the 2% number. However, they wouldn't successfully activate in the first 30 hours. Those lags could easily explain the number difference.

IJ Reilly
Jul 25, 2007, 04:38 PM
Guys, just remember that After Hours trading is never stable by any means. This isn't the regular market.

Nevertheless, Nasdaq After Hours quotes show $145.50. WOW

Granted, but the closing price after-hours is the opening price for the regular market tomorrow. I can live with that!

DaBrain
Jul 25, 2007, 04:40 PM
Took apple almost 2 years to sell 1 million ipods.

Will take about one quarter for iphone.


Did I hear this correct?!

WOW!

Yep you heard correctly--))) :D

network23
Jul 25, 2007, 04:40 PM
Well, I seriously doubt they sold 100,000 iPhone docks and headphones in the first 30 hours since those are included with the iPhone, so I highly doubt that makes up much of the total. I'm sure this is a question that will be asked during the conference call for clarification, so we'll see what they say.

That could very well also include things like cases, which could very well approach the 1:1 in sales, especially since I could see some buying multiple cases per iPhone (different colors)

Sbrocket
Jul 25, 2007, 04:40 PM
Granted, but the closing price after-hours is the opening price for the regular market tomorrow. I can live with that!

Yeah, but we've still got a bit of time until market opening time tomorrow. Granted, all that could mean is "more time to go up", but it could be more time to stabilize after overvaluing too.

skoops
Jul 25, 2007, 04:41 PM
they're gonna break the $150 mark in after hours....

edit: and they did it

WildCowboy
Jul 25, 2007, 04:42 PM
After hours trading is thin and more volatile, but not that volatile.

Of course, with over 12 million share traded after-hours, that's a third of their average daily volume. That's anything but thin.

Peace
Jul 25, 2007, 04:42 PM
They are almost confirming new Macs in August.What kind I can guess at.Since they project a higher component cost we can see backlit LCD iMacs.

Bookmark this ;)


AAPL is almost touching $150 a share in after hours trading now.

plumbingandtech
Jul 25, 2007, 04:43 PM
No iPhone > iPod cannibalization in june quarter.

will watch next quarter

(from the cast.)

plumbingandtech
Jul 25, 2007, 04:43 PM
They are almost confirming new Macs in August.What kind I can guess at.Since they project a higher component cost we can see backlit LCD iMacs.

Bookmark this ;)

Good catch.

dicklacara
Jul 25, 2007, 04:44 PM
they're gonna break the $150 mark in after hours....

Just did $150.50...150.65

WildCowboy
Jul 25, 2007, 04:44 PM
they're gonna break the $150 mark in after hours....

They just did. :D

macidiot
Jul 25, 2007, 04:45 PM
news.com indicates that 270,000 might include iphone accessories, such as headset, etc

The bluetooth headset that no one has seen until a few days ago?

skoops
Jul 25, 2007, 04:46 PM
They just did. :D

a lot of apple stock holders are wishing they had a pacemaker right now :)

Peace
Jul 25, 2007, 04:47 PM
As far as accessories :
Remember Apple doesn't charge you until the item ships.

The Bluetooth headset isn't in this picture.

iJon
Jul 25, 2007, 04:48 PM
270,000 does not include accessories. Quoted in the conference.

jon

IJ Reilly
Jul 25, 2007, 04:49 PM
Yeah, but we've still got a bit of time until market opening time tomorrow. Granted, all that could mean is "more time to go up", but it could be more time to stabilize after overvaluing too.

Check me on this, but I believe after hours trading ends one hour after the regular markets close.

The markets might find some flaws with this earnings report overnight but with about an hour to digest the numbers today, they seem to be all in. Either way, I'm not counting my money, just feeling comforted by the strength of the trend. After yesterday, it was looking like AAPL might be poised for a big correction.

jayducharme
Jul 25, 2007, 04:50 PM
Nice to see mac sales on the upside.

Jobs said that Mac sales accounted for 60% of their revenue! :eek: Wow! I thought the iPod had been dominating sales for the last few years. It's interesting now that Apple is focusing on consumer electronics, their computers are taking off.

Incidentally, I was at Six Flags New England yesterday. While I was waiting in line for Superman, a guy walked past absorbed in his iPhone. Heads were turning everywhere, and he was enjoying the attention. BTW, the images taken with his iPhone camera looked pretty darn good.

DesignerOnMac
Jul 25, 2007, 04:50 PM
So I guess the iPhone sales aren't so great, which makes me sad. However, Mac sales are even cooler than iPhone sales!

So 270,000 iPhones sold in 30 hours isn't so great? What would you consider a great number of iPhones sold??

Sorry, don't get it!!!! :confused:

phatspider
Jul 25, 2007, 04:52 PM
Question : The 270k - is that total between apple shops and at&t shops, or is that just the amount the actual apple shops sold in first 30 hours?

IJ Reilly
Jul 25, 2007, 04:52 PM
a lot of apple stock holders are wishing they had a pacemaker right now :)

I can afford one now! Come to think of it, I'll take two! :D

dicklacara
Jul 25, 2007, 04:52 PM
270,000 does not include accessories. Quoted in the conference.

jon


Does the Apple unit number include the ATT units.

The $ number could include lost of things ...24 month accounting, ATT bounty (in total or 1/24) the first ATT monthly payment to apple...

twoodcc
Jul 25, 2007, 04:52 PM
great news! wow. keep it up Apple

Aniej
Jul 25, 2007, 04:52 PM
They are almost confirming new Macs in August.What kind I can guess at.Since they project a higher component cost we can see backlit LCD iMacs.

Bookmark this ;)


AAPL is almost touching $150 a share in after hours trading now.

Good catch.

maybe it's a good catch for people who are not part of the financial or legal community, but honestly it is simply classic avoidance of the inevitable product update and at best corporate puffing/forward looking statements. Not trying to shoot down the fact that there will likely be an update, just that its not peter and tim's comments suddenly gave the secret away.

Aniej
Jul 25, 2007, 04:54 PM
Does the Apple unit number include the ATT units.

The $ number could include lost of things ...24 month accounting, ATT bounty (in total or 1/24) the first ATT monthly payment to apple...

yes, they mentioned this about 4-6 mins ago, i think on the merril call.

macidiot
Jul 25, 2007, 04:55 PM
wow, look at Apple stock drive up.

Reminds me of the salad days of 1999. Only Apple actually has earnings...

I feel like pourin' a little out of my 40oz. for the forgotten homies (eToys, @home, CMGI) ;)

aafuss1
Jul 25, 2007, 04:55 PM
No status update on new iWork/iLife versions? 1Q:they said "stay tuned"-but no further info since then.

How many Macs were sold?

WildCowboy
Jul 25, 2007, 04:56 PM
Check me on this, but I believe after hours trading ends one hour after the regular markets close.

Nope...the standard after-hours market is 4:00-6:30 Eastern Time. We've got just over half an hour left.

Peace
Jul 25, 2007, 04:56 PM
Apple didn't include figures for AT&T "kickbacks"

they just said the revenues for the iPhone were mostly accessories.

so they DID sell 270,000 iPhones in 30 hours.

Daringescape
Jul 25, 2007, 04:58 PM
So, with 146K phones activated, and 270K sold in the first 30 hours, that means 46% of people who bought iPhones in the first two days didn't activate them in the first two days!!!

How can that be? Am I so different than so many other people that bought them? I couldn't wait to get home and activate mine. I know the delay would be unavoidable for some people, but 46%???

Maybe ATT is completely BS'ing about only 2% of people having activation issues. Or maybe their accounting is sloppy and they really only got the first day's activation numbers or something. :confused::confused::confused:


Well, I had to order my iPhone and wait about a 10 days to get it because my ATT store and the Apple store sold out the first day. If many others did the same thing, that would account for the difference.
I ordered mine form the ATT store - So Im guessing that counts as a sale within the first 30 hours.

Aniej
Jul 25, 2007, 04:59 PM
Nope...the standard after-hours market is 4:00-6:30 Eastern Time. We've got just over half an hour left.

correct, the only question I am not sure of honestly is whether they will be extended for apple today because trading was halted earlier today. I don't think they do that, but it is just something to take note of.

Aniej
Jul 25, 2007, 05:00 PM
Apple didn't include figures for AT&T "kickbacks"

they are going to do so Q4. best question was whether apple was recognizing revenue from any relationships with content providers appearing on the front of the the iPhone, i.e., google and yahoo.

-Alan-
Jul 25, 2007, 05:01 PM
correct, the only question I am not sure of honestly is whether they will be extended for apple today because trading was halted earlier today. I don't think they do that, but it is just something to take note of.
Nope, they'll never extend the trading day. :)

Peace
Jul 25, 2007, 05:03 PM
All I can say after listening to the conference call is Apple is going to have some exciting stuff by September..

one3
Jul 25, 2007, 05:04 PM
Canada? Canada? C'mon Steve --- look north! We need an iPhone here to keep us busy during our winter hibernation!

rob@robburns.co
Jul 25, 2007, 05:04 PM
Does the Apple unit number include the ATT units.

The $ number could include lost of things ...24 month accounting, ATT bounty (in total or 1/24) the first ATT monthly payment to apple...

According to the conference call, the $5 million does not include any payments from AT&T and is mostly accessories. The 270,000 sold is the number of iPhones sold (not totally clear on whether that's wholesale/retail/consignment whatever). Based on the way Apple plan s to account for iPhone sale, I would guess that the iPhone revenue is only the amount of revenue amortized over the 30 hours (based on a 24 month amortization).

Aniej
Jul 25, 2007, 05:06 PM
I think possibly one of the most important points mentioned on the call, but not yet noted here is that apple did not see any cannibalization of iPod sales by iPhone. We will see what happens Q4 as more iPhones are sold and potential barriers to entry are broken down, but I am very pleased with this fact and hope it continues Q4.

Aniej
Jul 25, 2007, 05:07 PM
Canada? Canada? C'mon Steve --- look north! We need an iPhone here to keep us busy during our winter hibernation!

curling?

rtdunham
Jul 25, 2007, 05:07 PM
(stock price) should (jump up) tomorrow. Finally we have some real iphone numbers and they are great!

not necessarily: notice that guidance predicts 65 cents/share profit for the present quarter, compared to 92 cents in the quarter recently completed. Stock prices reflect future, not past. So i think there's a real possibility the price could decline further. (and yes, i know the guidance only called for 66 cents in the quarter ended june 30; but that was addressed / questioned in the analysts' meeting and apple's execs claimed to have reasons to think 65cents was the accurant number to predict)

one3
Jul 25, 2007, 05:08 PM
curling?

I could use the smooth, curved underside of the iPhone as the curling 'rock' I guess :D

macidiot
Jul 25, 2007, 05:12 PM
(and yes, i know the guidance only called for 66 cents in the quarter ended june 30; but that was addressed / questioned in the analysts' meeting and apple's execs claimed to have reasons to think 65cents was the accurant number to predict)

The reason being that they feel that Wall St. analysts should actually do their job and analyze?

Aniej
Jul 25, 2007, 05:13 PM
I could use the smooth, curved underside of the iPhone as the curling 'rock' I guess :D

that was funny.

and, then you could post on here about how you have an iPhone that works without at&t activation. :D

jholzner
Jul 25, 2007, 05:15 PM
Unless you're buying the phone with some wacky Apple financing, you're paying the purchase price at time of purchase. Those numbers don't add up...

Where have you people been?? Sure you pay the full price but they aren't recognizing it all at once but spreading it out over two years!! Two years from now they will report the last of the income from iphones sold last quarter. Is this that hard for everyone to understand?

Chef Medeski
Jul 25, 2007, 05:17 PM
They sold 270,000 iPhones in the last two days of the quarter. The "iPhone Flops!" stories were a little premature.
30 hrs .... thats less than two days. Thats a day and a bit.

dicklacara
Jul 25, 2007, 05:20 PM
Stock price seems to be settling down around $149 and up $14

one3
Jul 25, 2007, 05:27 PM
that was funny.

and, then you could post on here about how you have an iPhone that works without at&t activation. :D

Canadian iPhone Users: ( it's ok - i'm canadian :D )

http://www.one3.ca/files/curl.jpg

KD7IWP
Jul 25, 2007, 05:29 PM
Canada? Canada? C'mon Steve --- look north! We need an iPhone here to keep us busy during our winter hibernation!

YES! Why jump across an ocean when all you need to do is talk to your nearest Customs agent?

FreeState
Jul 25, 2007, 05:31 PM
I think possibly one of the most important points mentioned on the call, but not yet noted here is that apple did not see any cannibalization of iPod sales by iPhone. We will see what happens Q4 as more iPhones are sold and potential barriers to entry are broken down, but I am very pleased with this fact and hope it continues Q4.


I don't think Apple will see much cannibalization for a while. It was widely known that the phone was coming out on the 29th (for at least a month of the quarter the exact date was known ,for the whole quarter it was known it was coming in that quarter).

Eventually convergence devices in general will probably cannibalize the iPod, but I don't see that happening for a few years time (once the iPhone is available on other carriers).

macshark
Jul 25, 2007, 05:50 PM
Looks like Apple is continuing the trend of supplying a reasonable revenue estimate for the next quarter while sandbagging the earnings guidance big time. How can they expect to increase revenue but expect the earnings to drop by 30% compared to this quarter?

Maybe it's because all those free iPhones the Apple employees get...

:-)

macshark
Jul 25, 2007, 05:52 PM
I don't think Apple will see much cannibalization for a while. It was widely known that the phone was coming out on the 29th (for at least a month of the quarter the exact date was known ,for the whole quarter it was known it was coming in that quarter).

Eventually convergence devices in general will probably cannibalize the iPod, but I don't see that happening for a few years time (once the iPhone is available on other carriers).

Hey, if I am Apple, I would love to see my $600 product (which brings additional cash incentives from AT&T per unit sold) cannibalize my $100-300 products! There are 10 million iPods a quarter waiting to be cannibalized.

ventro
Jul 25, 2007, 05:56 PM
AAPL up $11 in after hours trading, at $148. Feel sorry for all those people who got out yesterday :)

offwidafairies
Jul 25, 2007, 05:58 PM
hee hee im enjoying my reading this morning :)

rdowns
Jul 25, 2007, 06:00 PM
Am I correct here?

A simplistic view of how Apple will earn revenues from the iPhone. They will take the revenue from the sale of the iPhone and ATT cut and divide it by 24 (24 months) and report it that way.

So, each phone represents say $550 from sale of phone (more 8GB than 4GB), reported ATT bounty per phone of $150 plus $7 per month per subscriber (average of reports).

So, $550 plus $150 plus $168 ($7 x 24 months) = $868.

$868 divided by 24 months = $36.17

So each iPhone represents $36.17 revenue each month for 24 months.

IJ Reilly
Jul 25, 2007, 06:01 PM
Nope...the standard after-hours market is 4:00-6:30 Eastern Time. We've got just over half an hour left.

6:45 PM ET and still trading... $147.90.

macshark
Jul 25, 2007, 06:12 PM
AAPL up $11 in after hours trading, at $148. Feel sorry for all those people who got out yesterday :)

How about those people who shorted AAPL today expecting the stock to drop further tomorrow?

;-)

SMM
Jul 25, 2007, 06:21 PM
Canadian iPhone Users: ( it's ok - i'm canadian :D )

http://www.one3.ca/files/curl.jpg

Hey - what is that the dude is doing? Please do not say curling has gone high-tech too?

gnasher729
Jul 25, 2007, 06:28 PM
Am I correct here?

A simplistic view of how Apple will earn revenues from the iPhone. They will take the revenue from the sale of the iPhone and ATT cut and divide it by 24 (24 months) and report it that way.

So, each phone represents say $550 from sale of phone (more 8GB than 4GB), reported ATT bounty per phone of $150 plus $7 per month per subscriber (average of reports).

So, $550 plus $150 plus $168 ($7 x 24 months) = $868.

$868 divided by 24 months = $36.17

So each iPhone represents $36.17 revenue each month for 24 months.

According to Oppenheimer, all payments from Oppenheimer will be recognised immediately. All sales of accessories will be recognised immediately. Only hardware sales of iPhones and Apple TV are spread over 24 months.

big_malk
Jul 25, 2007, 07:00 PM
NPD reported iTunes became 3rd largest iTunes retailer in the U.S.
Sorry if someone how mentioned this already.
But iTunes being the third larget iTunes retailer confuses me somewhat? lol
I assume it's iTunes is the third largest music retailer is the US?

dukeblue91
Jul 25, 2007, 07:24 PM
Way to go Apple :)

RoDe
Jul 25, 2007, 07:30 PM
Hey Apple could you give me some of you're money, since you got 13 bilion to spare;). Way to go Apple Just think, some 10 years ago the where almost completely whipped out, Apple the come back kid.

Radam
Jul 25, 2007, 07:48 PM
I just bought some apple stock today. Not very much...(Im just about half way done with college) but it still makes me so excited.

headfake
Jul 25, 2007, 08:19 PM
According to the conference call, the $5 million does not include any payments from AT&T and is mostly accessories. The 270,000 sold is the number of iPhones sold (not totally clear on whether that's wholesale/retail/consignment whatever). Based on the way Apple plan s to account for iPhone sale, I would guess that the iPhone revenue is only the amount of revenue amortized over the 30 hours (based on a 24 month amortization).

in other words, they're seriously sandbagging the iphone revenues

joeblough
Jul 25, 2007, 08:53 PM
i dont know if anyone has posted upthread about this, but i dont think the low number of activations on ATT is unreasonable, depending on how they count activations.

i got an iphone on saturday afternoon, but because i was porting from another carrier, it was not fully activated until sunday afternoon. if they count an activation from the *end* of the activation process, the 140,000 number reflects those people who were new customers or were already on ATT.

i thought i read somewhere that 40% of iphone customers were previously on a different carrier, so this can explain the discrepancy between ATT's number and apple's number.

stagi
Jul 25, 2007, 08:56 PM
Sweet gains after hours, I can't wait to see my change in portfolio balance tomorrow morning :) The last few years AAPL has been good to me.

squirrellydw
Jul 25, 2007, 09:09 PM
Plan on incorporating new Software and Features into iPhone over time.

Bring it then I can buy one.

Maui
Jul 25, 2007, 09:13 PM
i dont know if anyone has posted upthread about this, but i dont think the low number of activations on ATT is unreasonable, depending on how they count activations.

i got an iphone on saturday afternoon, but because i was porting from another carrier, it was not fully activated until sunday afternoon. if they count an activation from the *end* of the activation process, the 140,000 number reflects those people who were new customers or were already on ATT.

i thought i read somewhere that 40% of iphone customers were previously on a different carrier, so this can explain the discrepancy between ATT's number and apple's number.

Either way, I am willing to bet there have been some interesting emails going back and forth between Jobs and Stephenson....

Crawn2003
Jul 25, 2007, 09:22 PM
Nice, glad to hear Apple is having back to back to back quarters of profit!

Glad I bought those 350 shares of AAPL when I did earlier....

~Crawn

calicardiff
Jul 25, 2007, 09:27 PM
The big story here was not the iPhone. It was Mac sales. Mac sales were impressive.

Couldn't agree more - also, unless I'm mistaken, this is the first quarter that Apple have sold more than a million portables (1.13 million to be exact) - now that really is impressive.

tribulation
Jul 25, 2007, 09:42 PM
"With the AppleTV selling 4 units in 2007, one was rumored to be returned. Total revenue for the device projected in 2008 is $90."

Stella
Jul 25, 2007, 09:45 PM
I'm impressed by the sales of the computers.

iPods need a refresh ASAP - a significant refresh - afterwards, the sales will rocket again.

MikeDTyke
Jul 25, 2007, 09:54 PM
I put a stop loss on my aapl shares yesterday of $130.00 just on the off chance of a further slump.

The complete fffing morons sold at 137.00 and i didn't notice it till close aaargh i don't bloody believe it i've just lost ~$3000 in after market gains.

I watched the market yesterday, never saw it drop below 135.00. What the hell is going on.

There's going to be sweet murder in the morning if this isn't sorted.


M. :mad::mad::mad:

JeffTL
Jul 25, 2007, 10:31 PM
The revenue is being accrued over the 24-month contract period due to expected expenses associated with services to be rendered during that time, in accordance with the matching principle of accrual-basis accounting, i.e. that revenues be matched with the expenses necessary for their generation. For the purpose of preparing a GAAP-compliant accrual basis income statement, cash flows are irrelevant; those go on the statement of cash flows, which is aptly named. In fact, I presume they'll have to report an unearned revenue liability on the balance sheet.

Counter
Jul 25, 2007, 10:36 PM
I put a stop loss on my aapl shares yesterday of $130.00 just on the off chance of a further slump.

The complete fffing morons sold at 137.00 and i didn't notice it till close aaargh i don't bloody believe it i've just lost ~$3000 in after market gains.

I watched the market yesterday, never saw it drop below 135.00. What the hell is going on.

There's going to be sweet murder in the morning if this isn't sorted.


M. :mad::mad::mad:

That blows.

But the moral of the story is: Don't have a stop loss on AAPL in an extremely volatile period.

segfaultdotorg
Jul 25, 2007, 10:47 PM
Two "big issues" I have:
1) Seek within a song using the slide bar is not smooth enough. The scroll wheel of my iPod nano was much, much smoother and more precise. I hope they fix this with a software update, possibly changing the way the function works entirely.
2) No support for manual music management--instead, I have to create an "iPhone playlist" and synchronize it with the iPhone.

IJ Reilly
Jul 25, 2007, 10:47 PM
I put a stop loss on my aapl shares yesterday of $130.00 just on the off chance of a further slump.

The complete fffing morons sold at 137.00 and i didn't notice it till close aaargh i don't bloody believe it i've just lost ~$3000 in after market gains.

I watched the market yesterday, never saw it drop below 135.00. What the hell is going on.

There's going to be sweet murder in the morning if this isn't sorted.


M. :mad::mad::mad:

Supposedly AAPL hit a low of $129 after hours, though I never saw it fall below around $131. The idea that a stop loss order is a bad idea I think is wrong. They just need to be set right. It's better to have left some money on the table than to wake up one morning and find out that you lost half of your investment. I know, it's happened to me!

Radam
Jul 25, 2007, 11:12 PM
i think I'm going to keep my money in aapl for a little bit, I'm going to keep my fingers crossed and hope it still keeps going up.

BKKbill
Jul 25, 2007, 11:20 PM
AAPL $137.26 a share now. Guess it all come out in the wash. Still a good time to get in though. IMHO

BKKbill
Jul 25, 2007, 11:36 PM
What's this about "Apple Tips Its Hand" at http://www.forbes.com/2007/07/25/apple-3q-earnings-markets-equity-cx_bc_0725markets38.html?partner=msn
Could that mean Apple is about to introduce some new products? Maybe a new back illuminated screen for my coming iMac. :)

Thinine
Jul 25, 2007, 11:43 PM
NPD reported iTunes became 3rd largest iTunes retailer in the U.S.Well that sucks. :D

d21mike
Jul 26, 2007, 12:13 AM
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Q: Are there thoughts about addressing corporate email on the iPhone?
A: We think that the iPhone is a breakthrough product for all customers including business customers. With very little help from the IT department, it will work. Have many business customers who are very happy so far.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Any idea what this means? Does it mean that they are testing MS Exchange or Blackberry Connect? Or does it mean that they convinced some corporate customers to open IMAP Ports?

I did hear before that MS Exchange ActiveSync was being tested but not sure if that is a fact or not. This question could have really clarified it.

Does anyone know for sure that this is in the works? I consider it extremely important to get a large segment of the email market.

scu
Jul 26, 2007, 12:18 AM
Granted, but the closing price after-hours is the opening price for the regular market tomorrow. I can live with that!

Not always. The opening price will be closer to PM.

I will be an interesting day. Aapl is cheap folks buy at any price and hold for 5 years and I guarantee you that you will thank me for it.

I have been preaching this tune since last year. I keep getting richer and I don't have to work to hard at it.

Crawn2003
Jul 26, 2007, 12:57 AM
In after hours trading it's reached $150.18. I bought 350 shares @ around $137 so in after hours I made about $4,613 give or take. Hopefully Apple will continue up a few more dollars tomorrow as people that couldn't trade in after hours try to make a few off of Apple before it creeps back down. I expect that by tomorrow (late morning/early afternoon) that Apple stock will have a sell off. Who knows though, I hope I'm wrong and it continues up about $15 more.

~Crawn

halhiker
Jul 26, 2007, 01:39 AM
I have to laugh at those morons who listened to Jim Cramer's "sell some Apple, sell some Apple, sell some Apple" rant.

Here's my rant: "buy some Apple, buy some Apple, but some Apple". This is only the beginning, guys.

angelneo
Jul 26, 2007, 03:07 AM
Sorry if someone how mentioned this already.
But iTunes being the third larget iTunes retailer confuses me somewhat? lol
I assume it's iTunes is the third largest music retailer is the US?
I was about to point this out too. Is there a typo in the report? It makes more sense if it is "NPD reported iTunes became 3rd largest Music retailer in the U.S."

winmacguy
Jul 26, 2007, 03:41 AM
That blows.

But the moral of the story is: Don't have a stop loss on AAPL in an extremely volatile period.

Agreed. Just sit on them like I am. I bought in a while back @ $72 a share (with NZ $). AAPL is on my long term investment plan.

brilami
Jul 26, 2007, 04:25 AM
believe me, apple will hit 155 to 160 bucks 2day. right now it is 148 in the pre market.... it will soar today like hell :-) glad i bought some options a few days ago. :D

Willis
Jul 26, 2007, 05:09 AM
$818 Million profit is just out of this world. Around double over last years quarter. I think people really under estimate how big of a company Apple is. Looks like last quarter is funding the 2nd HQ being built!

Mac Player
Jul 26, 2007, 05:19 AM
$150.18

They should split it :D

surferfromuk
Jul 26, 2007, 05:31 AM
I'm just wondering what the seriously expensive product transition is going to be ?

New 'no way!' shock design iMacs, gobsmacking iphone-esque video ipod, sexy cool iphone nano and *something else* not even on our radar!!

My Projection is Apple @ $350 by Q3 2008 from shipping 3 million macs for two straight quarters in row thus marking 'the tipping point' whereby Apple becomes the worlds no.1 technology brand....

zwida
Jul 26, 2007, 08:29 AM
I have to laugh at those morons who listened to Jim Cramer's "sell some Apple, sell some Apple, sell some Apple" rant.

Here's my rant: "buy some Apple, buy some Apple, but some Apple". This is only the beginning, guys.

Not to turn this into a discussion of Jim Cramer, but his "sell some Apple" rant was very good advice within the "trading" strategy he recommends. Like you, I'd buy as much as I can and hold it, but he wants you to trade the movement. That is buy a bunch, sell some on radical upswings so that you can bank some profit and lock in some of that gain. Then watch for a dip (and there's always a dip, even in this crazy run-up) and buy more. Repeat.

manu chao
Jul 26, 2007, 08:45 AM
I'm just wondering what the seriously expensive product transition is going to be ?

New 'no way!' shock design iMacs, gobsmacking iphone-esque video ipod, sexy cool iphone nano and *something else* not even on our radar!!


OS X based iPods are a possibility but it probably would only affect the full-sized iPods. Considering that ThinkSecret is talking about a more modest iPod update, we almost have the confirmation that the iPod update will be pretty drastic.:D

Maybe something combined that replaces current Mac minis and iMacs?

zombitronic
Jul 26, 2007, 08:54 AM
I'm just wondering what the seriously expensive product transition is going to be ?

No clue, but I love the typical Apple teaser.

gnasher729
Jul 26, 2007, 09:01 AM
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Q: Are there thoughts about addressing corporate email on the iPhone?
A: We think that the iPhone is a breakthrough product for all customers including business customers. With very little help from the IT department, it will work. Have many business customers who are very happy so far.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Any idea what this means? Does it mean that they are testing MS Exchange or Blackberry Connect? Or does it mean that they convinced some corporate customers to open IMAP Ports?

I did hear before that MS Exchange ActiveSync was being tested but not sure if that is a fact or not. This question could have really clarified it.

Does anyone know for sure that this is in the works? I consider it extremely important to get a large segment of the email market.

Right now corporations are not Apple's top priority. There is only so much work they can do, and they'll put the work where it adds most customers. Right now, an IT department _can_ give you access to your work e-mail if they want to, but they may not want to, and they may have good reasons. I'd expect Apple to start working on this some time in the next few months. And whatever they do will also be reflected in the MacOS X Mail application. That's the brilliant thing about having MacOS X on the iPhone: Lots of the work on MacOS X improves the iPhone and vice versa!

d21mike
Jul 26, 2007, 09:22 AM
Right now corporations are not Apple's top priority. There is only so much work they can do, and they'll put the work where it adds most customers. Right now, an IT department _can_ give you access to your work e-mail if they want to, but they may not want to, and they may have good reasons. I'd expect Apple to start working on this some time in the next few months. And whatever they do will also be reflected in the MacOS X Mail application. That's the brilliant thing about having MacOS X on the iPhone: Lots of the work on MacOS X improves the iPhone and vice versa!

So what do you think he meant by the statement "With very little help from the IT department, it will work"? Do you think that this means that IT departments are either opening up IMAP Ports or allowing POP3 access to Corporate Email? I.E. No additional support built into the iPhone.

As far as priorities. Not sure why you feel it should not be a high priority for Apple. The following Article estimates Blackberry users at about 8 million in April 2007 (I thought there was more). Apple expects 10 million uses by the end of 2008. Wouldn't it be a good idea to go after some of the Backberry Users. I really do not think that adding support for Exchange ActiveSync would be a hard thing to do (for iPhones or the MAC). My guess is that there is a nother reason it has not already be done for the MAC. Maybe more political then anything else. Do you really think that they could not have added support for the MAC over the last several years?

http://searchmobilecomputing.techtarget.com/originalContent/0,289142,sid40_gci1251971,00.html

blilly
Jul 26, 2007, 09:31 AM
Two "big issues" I have:
2) No support for manual music management--instead, I have to create an "iPhone playlist" and synchronize it with the iPhone.

Hmmm . . In my iPhone pref tab for music I can choose which of my current playlists sync up. That's just how I want it.

Do you not have that option?

IJ Reilly
Jul 26, 2007, 10:06 AM
Not always. The opening price will be closer to PM.

It ended up opening at $145.94. Not sure why, since the last trades in after-hours were at around $150.00.

lu0s3r322
Jul 26, 2007, 10:35 AM
absolutely huge boost to apple's stock today. 7% increase! while the rest of the market plummets

slughead
Jul 26, 2007, 10:36 AM
Hmmm . . In my iPhone pref tab for music I can choose which of my current playlists sync up. That's just how I want it.

Do you not have that option?

He's talking about manually dragging the songs to the iPhone, without necessarily syncing it to a playlist .

hayesk
Jul 26, 2007, 10:52 AM
So what do you think he meant by the statement "With very little help from the IT department, it will work"? Do you think that this means that IT departments are either opening up IMAP Ports or allowing POP3 access to Corporate Email?

You say that as if it's a bad thing. IMAP on SSL is secure and stable. I'm not sure where this notion of Exchange being more secure than IMAP came from.

d21mike
Jul 26, 2007, 11:20 AM
You say that as if it's a bad thing. IMAP on SSL is secure and stable. I'm not sure where this notion of Exchange being more secure than IMAP came from.

Actually I am not saying that. However, it appears that a lot of Exchange Admin people are saying that is not what they want to support (for whatever reason). With that said, I believe that besides EMAIL; Contacts, Calendar, and Task Syncing are very important. IMAP would only give you EMAIL. Also, you would have to also support IMAP Push which Yahoo is currently supporting.

My point is why fight it. Would it not be better to just give full support to Exchange and/or Blackberry Connect so the Business Community would embrace it now. Also, remember that there other sucurity concerns besides IMAP SSL. Like lost PDA's being cleared of Corporate information if needed over the air.

Of course they could be going off in some other direction. Maybe you will be able to get Over the Air SYNC of Mail, Calendar, Contacts, Tasks, Notes from another to be anounced server to compete with Exchange and Blackberry. I know MS is also supporting this with Windows Live for the non-business user (or maybe small business user). I think they could do something like this as well. As you know they already have Yahoo Push Email. Maybe Yahoo can get busy and support the other options with a backend to Exchange and Blackberry. However, not counting on this since Yahoo does not seem to be doing that good of job at just doing the Push Email part.

Again, I started this topic to see if anybody could shed more light on the comments made about Corporate Email. Sounds like you are saying that they are talking about what is already available which is IMAP. Is that what you are saying?

DakotaGuy
Jul 26, 2007, 11:22 AM
Q: Apple TV Units?
A: We don't announce that level of product detail.

I am guessing that product isn't selling very well or you can bet they would have released numbers.

FF_productions
Jul 26, 2007, 11:32 AM
Wow Apple's Stock blew up today!

manu chao
Jul 26, 2007, 11:37 AM
My point is why fight it.

Fighting for the adoption of opens standards, like IMAP, can make sense.

Also, remember that there other sucurity concerns besides IMAP SSL. Like lost PDA's being cleared of Corporate information if needed over the air.

Sure, but that risk exists with BlackBerries and the like as well.

manu chao
Jul 26, 2007, 11:39 AM
He's talking about manually dragging the songs to the iPhone, without necessarily syncing it to a playlist .

What is the difference between manually dragging songs over to a playlist and manually dragging it over to the iPhone?

d21mike
Jul 26, 2007, 12:06 PM
Fighting for the adoption of opens standards, like IMAP, can make sense.

Sure, but that risk exists with BlackBerries and the like as well.

I Agree. I think LDAP for Contacts would also be a good idea. So, if that is there direction I think it would good to say so. I mean, say we have no plans to support Exchange or Blackberry Connect. Our plan to support open standards such as IMAP SSL, LDAP, iCal etc.

macidiot
Jul 26, 2007, 12:32 PM
It ended up opening at $145.94. Not sure why, since the last trades in after-hours were at around $150.00.

Just like there is after-market trading, there is also pre-market trading.

50548
Jul 26, 2007, 01:13 PM
$818 Million profit is just out of this world. Around double over last years quarter. I think people really under estimate how big of a company Apple is. Looks like last quarter is funding the 2nd HQ being built!

As I said in other occasions, it's about time stubborn Mac-bashers that come to this forum leave the building, as Elvis did...

Apple is poised to become THE biggest ICT company in the world, encompassing not only desktops but portables, phones, TV media and multimedia devices.

Apple's growth is simply blowing everyone's minds every quarter, and there is NO way new iPhones, new Macs and new iPods will flop...Apple is on a roll and all the others are in the pit, including Microsoft.

Laugh while you can, Monkey Ballmer and PC "pundits"...:rolleyes:

GO APPLE!

rob@robburns.co
Jul 26, 2007, 02:43 PM
Actually I am not saying that. However, it appears that a lot of Exchange Admin people are saying that is not what they want to support (for whatever reason). With that said, I believe that besides EMAIL; Contacts, Calendar, and Task Syncing are very important. IMAP would only give you EMAIL. Also, you would have to also support IMAP Push which Yahoo is currently supporting.

My point is why fight it. Would it not be better to just give full support to Exchange and/or Blackberry Connect so the Business Community would embrace it now. Also, remember that there other sucurity concerns besides IMAP SSL. Like lost PDA's being cleared of Corporate information if needed over the air.

Of course they could be going off in some other direction. Maybe you will be able to get Over the Air SYNC of Mail, Calendar, Contacts, Tasks, Notes from another to be anounced server to compete with Exchange and Blackberry. I know MS is also supporting this with Windows Live for the non-business user (or maybe small business user). I think they could do something like this as well. As you know they already have Yahoo Push Email. Maybe Yahoo can get busy and support the other options with a backend to Exchange and Blackberry. However, not counting on this since Yahoo does not seem to be doing that good of job at just doing the Push Email part.

Again, I started this topic to see if anybody could shed more light on the comments made about Corporate Email. Sounds like you are saying that they are talking about what is already available which is IMAP. Is that what you are saying?

I think you raise many interesting issues. Unfortunately, the original question during the conference call was posed without any savvy or nuance. Asking whether the iPhone will support corporate email is simply an asinine question. Of course it supports corporate email because corporate email can use the same excellent protocols that we all use. If the analyst didn't have his head up his ass, he would have asked: do you have plans to add native Exchange client support, like ActiveSync or at least WebDAV based Outlook Web Access? That was what the analyst meant. The answer to the question asked by the analyst is that the iPhone already supports corporate email with IMAP over SSL including at least one IMAP push protocol. I would imagine the answer to the question about adding MS specific client support would probably have not been answered anyway. There's some support for Exchange in iCal, in AddressBook and in Mail on Mac OS X. The question is will Apple add more themselves; leave it to a third-party; or try to push adoption of the great open protocols already available to corporate IT; or all of the above?

My guess is that a lot of this will become clearer when Leopard is released since Leopard will bring iCal server based on the Darwin Calendar Server that bring much of what Exchange does (and more) to the platform (in the form of another Darwin open source project). The CalDAV protocol has many projects working on Exchange integration. All of this could be leveraged by any IT department that wanted to forgo tens of thousand of annual licensing fees each year. I'm anxious to see how this CalDAV stuff plays out. It's some exciting protocols collected together and rounded-out.

rob@robburns.co
Jul 26, 2007, 02:56 PM
It ended up opening at $145.94. Not sure why, since the last trades in after-hours were at around $150.00.

Just like there is after-market trading, there is also pre-market trading.

Actually, you shouldn't think of trading as part of some linear process. Those lines drawn on the graphs are just drawn for aesthetic value. Every trade is a unique event. Especially in after hours trading where not everyone meets in the same forum to trade, you can expect less consistency in trades. In after-hours trading someone looking to sell found someone willing to buy at $150. When the opening bell rang, traders settled on $145 for the first trade. They're just distinct events.

IJ Reilly
Jul 26, 2007, 03:57 PM
Actually, you shouldn't think of trading as part of some linear process. Those lines drawn on the graphs are just drawn for aesthetic value. Every trade is a unique event. Especially in after hours trading where not everyone meets in the same forum to trade, you can expect less consistency in trades. In after-hours trading someone looking to sell found someone willing to buy at $150. When the opening bell rang, traders settled on $145 for the first trade. They're just distinct events.

Understood. But when I've looked at these numbers in the past, the last trade of after hours is usually the price the stock opens at the following day, or at least very nearly. I watched the bid/ask pretty closely during the last hour of after-hours trading and never saw anything close to $145, it was all in the range of $148-150. One of the many mysteries of the stock market, I guess!

d21mike
Jul 26, 2007, 04:08 PM
I think you raise many interesting issues. Unfortunately, the original question during the conference call was posed without any savvy or nuance. Asking whether the iPhone will support corporate email is simply an asinine question. Of course it supports corporate email because corporate email can use the same excellent protocols that we all use. If the analyst didn't have his head up his ass, he would have asked: do you have plans to add native Exchange client support, like ActiveSync or at least WebDAV based Outlook Web Access? That was what the analyst meant. The answer to the question asked by the analyst is that the iPhone already supports corporate email with IMAP over SSL including at least one IMAP push protocol. I would imagine the answer to the question about adding MS specific client support would probably have not been answered anyway. There's some support for Exchange in iCal, in AddressBook and in Mail on Mac OS X. The question is will Apple add more themselves; leave it to a third-party; or try to push adoption of the great open protocols already available to corporate IT; or all of the above?

My guess is that a lot of this will become clearer when Leopard is released since Leopard will bring iCal server based on the Darwin Calendar Server that bring much of what Exchange does (and more) to the platform (in the form of another Darwin open source project). The CalDAV protocol has many projects working on Exchange integration. All of this could be leveraged by any IT department that wanted to forgo tens of thousand of annual licensing fees each year. I'm anxious to see how this CalDAV stuff plays out. It's some exciting protocols collected together and rounded-out.

Thanks for the Leopard information and CalDAV. I have been strictly a Windows Person so not that familiar with the direction of Apples other products. However, I will be looking closely at this going forward.

gnasher729
Jul 26, 2007, 05:54 PM
As far as priorities. Not sure why you feel it should not be a high priority for Apple. The following Article estimates Blackberry users at about 8 million in April 2007 (I thought there was more). Apple expects 10 million uses by the end of 2008. Wouldn't it be a good idea to go after some of the Backberry Users.

Here are the numbers: 1,000 million mobile phone users. 8 million Blackberry users (no idea if this number is right). Getting 0.1 percent of the general population = 1 million iPhones. Getting 10 percent of Blackberry users = 800,000 iPhones. If Apple thinks it is easier to get 0.1 percent of the general population by improving the iPhone than 12.5 percent of Blackberry users, then Blackberry users are not the priority.

d21mike
Jul 26, 2007, 10:36 PM
Here are the numbers: 1,000 million mobile phone users. 8 million Blackberry users (no idea if this number is right). Getting 0.1 percent of the general population = 1 million iPhones. Getting 10 percent of Blackberry users = 800,000 iPhones. If Apple thinks it is easier to get 0.1 percent of the general population by improving the iPhone than 12.5 percent of Blackberry users, then Blackberry users are not the priority.


I don't know why this would have to be an either or question. Provide a business class email pda or provide comsumer only features. I would think they could do more then 1 thing at a time. My point was I would think getting a license for Active Sync and Blackberry Connect would then make it very easy to add the support. Don't you? From other posts it is my understanding that this has already been done many times on other pda phones.

I know there are a lot features that are being requested by the community. Other then a few hardware features (3G, GPS, etc) which I don't believe will be considered until well into 2008 we are talking about pretty easy to code software features. Right? Have not seen anything that could not be coded rather quickly (if Apple wanted too). And other then hardware and "cost" what is the big show stopper for new sales to the general community? Every iPod user I know would buy one if their contract was up and the cost was not 3 times what they normally spend for a phone. Plus most of them do not need a data plan for an extra $20 per month. However, the business community would not have a problem with either since they normally spend over $40 per month for a data plan and the cost of the phone is not a major problem.

TPALTony
Jul 27, 2007, 06:36 AM
So what do you think he meant by the statement "With very little help from the IT department, it will work"? Do you think that this means that IT departments are either opening up IMAP Ports or allowing POP3 access to Corporate Email? I.E. No additional support built into the iPhone.

As far as priorities. Not sure why you feel it should not be a high priority for Apple. The following Article estimates Blackberry users at about 8 million in April 2007 (I thought there was more). Apple expects 10 million uses by the end of 2008. Wouldn't it be a good idea to go after some of the Backberry Users. I really do not think that adding support for Exchange ActiveSync would be a hard thing to do (for iPhones or the MAC). My guess is that there is a nother reason it has not already be done for the MAC. Maybe more political then anything else. Do you really think that they could not have added support for the MAC over the last several years?

http://searchmobilecomputing.techtarget.com/originalContent/0,289142,sid40_gci1251971,00.html

I have a BlackBerry for work and an iPhone for my personal use. I much prefer the iPhone but there is a lot of work Apple has to do in order to make iPhone valid for corporate use. The MOST important one is wireless syncing of calendars (and to a lesser extent contacts), and better calendar / mail integration.

It's simply not a good option for someone to have to dock their iPhone in order to get an up to date calendar. Nor it is an option for them to get an email saying "hey can you do this time?" instead of just accepting a meeting request right from the phone and having it show up in their calendar on iPhone AND their desktop mail. Contact syncing with large corporate address books is also essential for this to work properly. iPhone currently has none of that. But, it could do with some software updates...

But it's true, in my opinion, to say that it's not (nor should it be) an Apple priority. Corporates don't sign off on 5-600 dollar email devices. A few top execs, yes, but for the masses, corporate guys buy a generation or two old BlackBerry for 50 bucks based on corporate deals. Individuals don't get a choice on this stuff.

However, interestingly enough, I've started to piece together my own theory on what Apple is going to do.

Consider .mac. It's done OK but it's not that flash or feature rich by their standards. At D5 Steve was asked about this and he said "You're right, and we will be making big changes in coming months" (I haven't quoted him correctly but that was his meaning I believe.)

Now, consider this. Macs can sync contacts, calendars and a whole bunch of stuff via .mac. You can hook up multiple macs to your .mac account and sync them. Hmmmm, doesn't iPhone run OS X? So exactly HOW HARD would it be for them to let your iPhone sync with .mac in exactly the same way? Easy, for them.

OK, I know what you're going to say, that's just mac users. But it is actually NOT that hard for them to make this available to windows users too.

There are two steps to getting content out of your 'doze machine (Outlook etc.) and onto your iPhone.

Step 1. Get the content from the app. They already do this for the iTunes sync via USB, so it's done already. It's two way too since you can add contacts on the phone and they appear on your desktop app when you connect. So, check, done.

Step 2. Get it to the phone. Today that's done via iTunes. To do it wirelessly all they need is a WINDOWS .mac sync agent. Hardly beyond the wit of a skilled apple engineering department, and it would drive .mac sales too. :)

Admittedly some things need more work. Notes, tasks (if they ever appear on iPhone), etc. But that's an extension of groundwork that is already done.

So that's my theory, that they're going to let you do this stuff wireless, by .mac, and that there'll be a windows sync agent (let us not forget, there is ALREADY a Windows iDisk client to let you get at a .mac iDisk, so there is precedent for .mac access from Windows.)

All of which is to my main point. If apple is going to invest time this stuff, they won't target corporate. It's too much work, with a lot of corporate IT policy and privacy rules etc etc to deal with. Plus, it's NOT a huge part of the iPhone market! They'll focus on making things better for consumers, who are the people buying the phones.

Just my 2c worth. :)

be well

t

IJ Reilly
Jul 27, 2007, 10:13 AM
If the thread highjackers don't mind a little bit of on topic discussion... AAPL hung tough yesterday during the big market bloodbath. Pretty impressive performance, considering.

Rocketman
Jul 27, 2007, 02:15 PM
I would rank the news accordingly:

1. MARGIN growth ASTOUNDING. Earnings growth is crack to wall street. AAPL is a BUY at any price.

2. Mac sales astounding, halo effect real.

3. iPod sales strong, no cannibalization.

4. iPhone sales 270,000 first 30 hours, last two days of quarter. So sales probably WERE about 500,000 for the (4 day) weekend. Sales by now probably ARE over a million and growing.

I wonder when their market cap will exceed IBM? Microsoft?

Rocketman

Black Belt
Jul 27, 2007, 02:45 PM
I wonder when their market cap will exceed IBM? Microsoft?



When they start having revenue of that caliber. For a dose of reality...

"...more than 60 million packages of Windows Vista have shipped in the past six months, selling at a rate of 10 million units per month and “eclipsing Apple’s entire installed base in 5 weeks of shipments."

Microsoft makes about 55 Million dollars in pure profit every 24 hours. At that rate it takes Microsoft about 2 weeks to do what Apple does in 3 months.

APPL has a crazy P/E of 46. That is nearly double Microsoft or Cisco. Google is the same way. Love that irrational exuberance over common sense. Must be that Stock Widget. Can we say Tech Crash II is a comin'? Enjoy!

IJ Reilly
Jul 27, 2007, 03:03 PM
APPL has a crazy P/E of 46. That is nearly double Microsoft or Cisco. Google is the same way. Love that irrational exuberance over common sense. Must be that Stock Widget. Can we say Tech Crash II is a comin'? Enjoy!

Try looking at a meaningful number for a growth company, such as forward PE, which is substantially lower. Trailing PE is all about history. Cisco and Microsoft's trailing PE is lower because they are not growing their EPS at anything like the rate we've seen from Apple, and are not expected to in the immediate future.

Black Belt
Jul 27, 2007, 03:09 PM
Try looking at a meaningful number for a growth company, such as forward PE, which is substantially lower. Trailing PE is all about history. Cisco and Microsoft's trailing PE is lower because they are not growing their EPS at anything like the rate we've seen from Apple, and are not expected to in the immediate future.


Bwhahahahahahahah! Fantasy numbers are more meaningful. Riiiiiiight. I rest my case. Projecting growth rate based on past performance is a mathematical absurdity. You could never come close to taking into account market forces, competition, nature, share dilution, etc - way too many variables to have meaning. That is the same rationale that caused the Dot.Bomb. Basically for Apple to make sense at 150 at industry PE standards for tech, which is VERY optimistic, they would probably have to average about $7.50 a share within 5 years. They are at $3. It ain't happening.

Rocketman
Jul 28, 2007, 11:16 AM
Bwhahahahahahahah! Fantasy numbers are more meaningful. Riiiiiiight. I rest my case. Projecting growth rate based on past performance is a mathematical absurdity. You could never come close to taking into account market forces, competition, nature, share dilution, etc - way too many variables to have meaning. That is the same rationale that caused the Dot.Bomb. Basically for Apple to make sense at 150 at industry PE standards for tech, which is VERY optimistic, they would probably have to average about $7.50 a share within 5 years. They are at $3. It ain't happening.

Your moderating expectations feelings do have value. But stocks are valued based on objective criterion, and traded in a less than fully rational market. P/E ratios have a multiplier based on "expected growth rates". Apple has a high expected earnings growth rate. Now if that reverses or even moderates, then the tail will indeed wag the dog and the price will drop disproportionately, just as it is rising disproportionately now.

But in the mean time Apple is in a secular growth phase and is also increasing market share in its segments (computer, phone, mp3). Further, it is increasing MARGINS, which is something which is widely rewarded on Wall Street. For the moment it is possibly more comparable to Starbucks than Microsoft. MS has a much lower unit cost of delivery than a hardware company or a coffee company. One would think the recent success of Vista deployments would reflect in a share price considering the near 85% gross margins on those sales and the very wide distribution, but perhaps those deployments were already factored in to the share price in the last year or so as "predictable".

Apple is a company and stock which is viewed skeptically, as it should be and as such it is only when a product actually delivers on its promise of sales and margins wall street recognizes it. That has been the case with iPhone and Mac sales figures.

I am about 100 feet from an iPod vending machine right now. I wonder when it will be populated with iPhones too?

Rocketman

IJ Reilly
Jul 28, 2007, 11:33 AM
Thank you Rocketman. Apparently some people have a tough time with the concept of growing earnings. They should be investing in steel or tractors, or other companies with very low trailing PEs, and forward PEs to match, and good reasons for both.

Forward PEs aren't "fantasy numbers." They're consensus estimates of future earnings. In Apple's case, they've been blowing past these estimates on the order of 20-30% every quarter. Now, if they stop performing this way, then indeed the stock will fall accordingly. But as of now, the markets are believing that Apple's growth rate will continue, if not accelerate. Nobody really knows if these expectations are justified, but you are surely not not going to find any evidence for or against in trailing PE, a number that only tells you what has happened and nothing about what will happen.

macidiot
Jul 28, 2007, 02:36 PM
Bwhahahahahahahah! Fantasy numbers are more meaningful. Riiiiiiight. I rest my case. Projecting growth rate based on past performance is a mathematical absurdity. You could never come close to taking into account market forces, competition, nature, share dilution, etc - way too many variables to have meaning. That is the same rationale that caused the Dot.Bomb. Basically for Apple to make sense at 150 at industry PE standards for tech, which is VERY optimistic, they would probably have to average about $7.50 a share within 5 years. They are at $3. It ain't happening.

As anyone who has studied finance will tell you, you can forecast earnings. Now there are a lot of variables like you say, and some companies are more difficult to forecast than others.

However, the larger and more mature a company it is, the easier it is. And guess what, it is mostly based on past performance. Wrigley has been making Doublemint gum forever. An analyst can look and easily determine overall market growth, overall market share and come up with a fairly accurate estimate of sales.

Now, as anyone with a background in finance will tell you, forecasting 1 quarter out with accuracy is fairly easy. One year, also not difficult. Two years, also possible. But pretty much anything past that is just guessing.

What you seem to fail to have is an understanding of finance, financial markets, and Apple. I'm not going to get into the details of explaining how wrong your assessment is, it would take quite a bit of time.

However, I will say this. Apple earned 92 cents last quarter. Apple can easily earn over 1.00/share this quarter. That would give Apple a trailing earnings (ttm) of close to $4. I project Apple to earn another dollar the following quarter. Giving Apple trailing earnings of about 4.50. Next year, $5-$5.50 is easy.

Let's see: $5/share earnings, 5 year average growth rate of 139%, forward growth rate in excess of 25%(more like 35%), stellar management, stellar balance sheet. The market should trade Apple at a premium. Oh wait, it does. You think Apple should trade with the p/e that Gateway has? Or Microsoft? Are you kidding? Those companies are stagnant compared to Apple.

150 is expensive compared to other companies. And it certainly isn't cheap, even for Apple. However, Apple gets a premium based on the above things. And at $5/share earnings, a p/e of 30 is well below Apple's 5 year historical average. Consider that Apple could earn $6/share next year. Using a modest, for Apple, 20% growth rate the following year, Apple earnings are at $7.20 in 2.5 years. So how is 7.50 "ain't happening?"

IJ Reilly
Jul 29, 2007, 01:44 AM
Another tidbit to add is Apple's cash balance, which I believe is around $12 billion now. You could lop this number right off the top of current market cap and arrive at a more accurate, or at least telling, trailing PE.