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Mr. Anderson
Aug 16, 2007, 07:41 PM
So I'm thinking this won't be good.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/203525.shtml?5day#contents

Look at the current track and then at the archived 2004 season

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tracks/2004atl.gif

I know that the weather conditions aren't going to be the same, but the chance that it slips in through the straight between Yucatan and Cuba, its going right to the US Coast.

And its already a catagory 2.

D

bousozoku
Aug 16, 2007, 08:08 PM
Floriduh desperately needs some rain and the local people are guessing that it could hit category 3 status with the warm water.

Abstract
Aug 16, 2007, 08:58 PM
Floriduh desperately needs some rain....

Yay, Category 3! Great news for Florida!

Cooknn
Aug 16, 2007, 09:08 PM
I'm in Fort Myers. Charley just missed us. I hope this one stays away. It takes a long time to get things fixed after one of these. There are still broken buildings on US41. Not sure if FEMA trailer town is still around...

ham_man
Aug 16, 2007, 10:54 PM
I just really hope that this hits anywhere but the Texas coast. If we get any more rain (Erin is stressing enough), most of the state will be underwater.

bousozoku
Aug 16, 2007, 11:26 PM
I'm in Fort Myers. Charley just missed us. I hope this one stays away. It takes a long time to get things fixed after one of these. There are still broken buildings on US41. Not sure if FEMA trailer town is still around...

I just got my Charley damage finally fixed months ago. :D

So many construction and repair companies have been so backed up because of 2004 and 2005. Now that new housing starts are down, maybe they'll be able to clean up after the above average 2007 season.

Arantxa
Aug 16, 2007, 11:30 PM
Mmmm... hurricane. We're not seein' 'em in North Carolina this year. Not so far.

werther
Aug 17, 2007, 08:57 AM
Mmmm... hurricane. We're not seein' 'em in North Carolina this year. Not so far.


I'm in Virginia.....don't jinx it!

joepunk
Aug 17, 2007, 09:29 AM
I'm currently living in Orlando, Floridu.

This place could use a nice cooling off. Probably get some rain and winds.

MacNut
Aug 17, 2007, 10:56 AM
Deans current path.

vicious7
Aug 18, 2007, 08:16 PM
Wow...looks like Cuba's gonna get some rain. I hope everyone will be alright.

bousozoku
Aug 19, 2007, 12:23 AM
Getting scarier: http://www.wftv.com/hurricanes/13889740/detail.html

4God
Aug 19, 2007, 12:38 AM
A cat. 4 storm with winds of 150 MPH. :eek: Could be a cat 5 as it
enters the Gulf. http://knbc.weatherplus.com/hurricanetracker/index.html

jjahshik32
Aug 19, 2007, 02:51 AM
A cat. 4 storm with winds of 150 MPH. :eek: Could be a cat 5 as it
enters the Gulf. http://knbc.weatherplus.com/hurricanetracker/index.html

ahhh CRAp!! What should I do????????????????? I live in houston tx... =(

bousozoku
Aug 19, 2007, 04:14 AM
ahhh CRAp!! What should I do????????????????? I live in houston tx... =(

Visit Dallas, maybe?

Rodimus Prime
Aug 19, 2007, 08:47 AM
A cat. 4 storm with winds of 150 MPH. :eek: Could be a cat 5 as it
enters the Gulf. http://knbc.weatherplus.com/hurricanetracker/index.html

one thing people should remember is the bigger the storm gets the greater likely hood it will kill it self.

Remember they pull their strength off the heat of the ocean. Now the bigger the storm gets the more churning up the water they do and when they get to cat 4/5 they start causing cold water to come to the surface. When that happens the storm will start to weaken very quickly.

Also the project path puts the storm in Mexico so I think the Texas cost is pretty safe.

MacDawg
Aug 19, 2007, 09:23 AM
Heart goes out to Jamaica (spent 3 weeks in Montego Bay a few years ago) and then the Yucatan. Gonna be a rough time for all concerned.

How soon can we expect the bogus pictures to start making the rounds on the internet... "Wow, look at these shots of Hurricane Dean a friend sent me! Unbelievable!"

I keep snopes.com on my favorites ;)

Woof, Woof - Dawg http://homepage.mac.com/k.j.vinson/pawprint.gif

2nyRiggz
Aug 19, 2007, 09:24 AM
Damn looks like Jamaica will get hit hard....I have a lot of friends over there...hope they are prepared. After the massacre that was 2004-2005 Island people don't take these things for joke anymore.


Really hope it hit a cold spot in the ocean before it hits land.



Bless

furcalchick
Aug 19, 2007, 12:59 PM
ouch. i've been tracking this storm for about a week, and it's going to be awful nasty. good thing is that it's unlikely to go to houston (it could send the world into a recession losing a large city, and many new orleans people live there, including alot of my family)

but we're in the hurricane active cycle, so it's going to be more of the same for about 10-20 years. i don't think it's due to global warming, but if you look historically, the early parts of the 20th century and the middle of the century were also in active cycles, many devastating hurricanes there.

dmw007
Aug 19, 2007, 01:47 PM
Hurricanes like Dean make me glad that I don't live at the beach... :o

ham_man
Aug 19, 2007, 02:00 PM
Latest model run.

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/at200704345_model.gif

And for those wondering about how the ocean conditions affect growth, here is a chart. Basically, the warmer the color, the more the hurricane will be strenghtened.

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/DeachTCHP.jpg

And for those who wish to follow Dean, I found a pretty good site tracking its progress (link (http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/)).

MacNut
Aug 20, 2007, 11:40 AM
The latest.....

aquajet
Aug 20, 2007, 03:16 PM
one thing people should remember is the bigger the storm gets the greater likely hood it will kill it self.

Remember they pull their strength off the heat of the ocean. Now the bigger the storm gets the more churning up the water they do and when they get to cat 4/5 they start causing cold water to come to the surface. When that happens the storm will start to weaken very quickly.

All hurricanes cause cold water upwelling, not just the biggest ones. This leaves a trail of cooler water behind the hurricane, which can affect the strength and path of subsequent hurricanes which try to venture into the area. But there are still warm waters ahead for Dean. Enough in fact (forcasters believe) to allow himself to strengthen into a Cat 5 monster.

I hope those folks are prepared, or better yet, get the heck out of there. Things are going to get pretty ugly.

furcalchick
Aug 20, 2007, 03:51 PM
mexico could be in big trouble, dean's headed straight to mexico city. better hope it doesn't cross over and reform in the pacific and strike cali.

nickster9224
Aug 20, 2007, 03:54 PM
mexico could be in big trouble, dean's headed straight to mexico city. better hope it doesn't cross over and reform in the pacific and strike cali.

the pacific is far too cold to keep it a hurricane very long.

furcalchick
Aug 20, 2007, 04:00 PM
even though dean is likely not going to hit the us mainland, i think we should pay attention to this here: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007081900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

that's bad news for those of us in florida.

nickster9224
Aug 20, 2007, 04:14 PM
even though dean is likely not going to hit the us mainland, i think we should pay attention to this here: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007081900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

that's bad news for those of us in florida.

That looks like a major hurricane is goining to hit florida.is tht was im supposed to be seeing

gauchogolfer
Aug 20, 2007, 04:18 PM
NOAA has a cool site where you can view movies.
Here's the link:
http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/

Check out the east coast, medium sized movie.

As an added bonus, my officemate made the detectors used to capture these images.

ham_man
Aug 20, 2007, 04:18 PM
even though dean is likely not going to hit the us mainland, i think we should pay attention to this here: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007081900&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

that's bad news for those of us in florida.
Bad news? Now, I am no meteorological expert, but I can hold my own, and all I see is a glob of high pressure in the Atlantic and the low (Dean) east of Jamaica...

TheAnswer
Aug 20, 2007, 04:20 PM
mexico could be in big trouble, dean's headed straight to mexico city. better hope it doesn't cross over and reform in the pacific and strike cali.

I'm pretty sure México, D.F. will be ok, it's at an altitude of over 2,000 ft and surrounded by mountains. They'll see some rain, but they could probably use that. The plateau that covers most of México makes it unlikely that México, D.F. or points westward will see significant damage, but it and the Sierra Madre range also make flooding on the gulf coast side of the Sierra Madre more likely.

The most that will happen to California is that the humidity will rise a little and we might see a thunderstorm if the rest of the weather pattern is right, but it's not likely to reach us as anything significant.

yellow
Aug 20, 2007, 04:22 PM
Mmmm... hurricane. We're not seein' 'em in North Carolina this year. Not so far.

Man.. I need the rain. My lawn is shot and the tree/shrubs are strugglin.

aquajet
Aug 20, 2007, 05:36 PM
Man.. I need the rain. My lawn is shot and the tree/shrubs are strugglin.

Meanwhile, north texas has seen its second wettest season on record. After a few years of extremely dry conditions, I lost two trees and my entire garden last summer. But I've replanted the garden this year, and it was super easy with a saturated ground. But things are beginning to dry up again. Lots of cracks in the back yard, some as wide a 1/2".

maccompaq
Aug 20, 2007, 05:43 PM
Hurricanes like Dean make me glad that I don't live at the beach... :o

My house is right on the beach as are 2 of my sailboats. The last hurricane blew through at 150 mph a few years ago. I had some house damage, and my pool cage went down. Now I get a little nervous when a hurricane develops.

bousozoku
Aug 20, 2007, 06:12 PM
Bad news? Now, I am no meteorological expert, but I can hold my own, and all I see is a glob of high pressure in the Atlantic and the low (Dean) east of Jamaica...

That glob isn't yet organised but will be shortly and it's already headed for Floriduh. It might not be more than a category 2 but that can do plenty of damage. Hopefully, it will be like Frances in 2004 and just linger forever and deliver rain.

jjahshik32
Aug 22, 2007, 05:07 PM
yes!! I'm alive =D =D

ham_man
Aug 22, 2007, 11:01 PM
That glob isn't yet organised but will be shortly and it's already headed for Floriduh. It might not be more than a category 2 but that can do plenty of damage. Hopefully, it will be like Frances in 2004 and just linger forever and deliver rain.
Hurricanes are low pressure systems, like all other storms. Hence why Dean is green (low pressure) and the glob is red/pink (high pressure)...

TheAnswer
Aug 22, 2007, 11:07 PM
Hurricanes are low pressure systems, like all other storms. Hence why Dean is green (low pressure) and the glob is red/pink (high pressure)...

I believe they were talking about the little green glob that developed around frame 9 of the animation (if you have your window set too narrowly, you might not even notice the controls).

bousozoku
Aug 23, 2007, 01:37 AM
Hurricanes are low pressure systems, like all other storms. Hence why Dean is green (low pressure) and the glob is red/pink (high pressure)...

We're obviously not looking at the same globs. They've had one on the news for almost as long as Dean which is destined to dump rain on Florida and they showed another off the coast of Africa just last night that might end up as nasty as Dean.

ham_man
Aug 23, 2007, 09:50 PM
Oh. Now I see the controls :o. I did have my screen too narrow. But now that I have found the controls, I see exactly what y'all are talking about. Sorry.