View Full Version : whats with the aapl stock drop
derboy
Nov 9, 2007, 09:18 AM
Anyone know the reason for the massive aapl stock drop. from 190 back to low 170's. :eek:
Any ideas, when price targets are still strong?
wordmunger
Nov 9, 2007, 09:20 AM
Anyone know the reason for the massive aapl stock drop. from 190 back to low 170's. :eek:
Any ideas, when price targets are still strong?
Yeah, the whole market went down. General lack of confidence, not Apple specifically.
arkitect
Nov 9, 2007, 09:24 AM
Anyone know the reason for the massive aapl stock drop. from 190 back to low 170's. :eek:
Any ideas, when price targets are still strong?
It's nothing to do with Apple as such. Just have a look and you'll see all markets are down… there are some serious jitters around… :o
twoodcc
Nov 9, 2007, 11:17 AM
wow, i just noticed this. i wonder what's going on?
maccompaq
Nov 9, 2007, 11:56 AM
This is a perfect time to buy more AAPL. It will be going up to $225-$250 next year. I have been accumulating Apple stock for 10 years, and I am smiling big time.
lofight
Nov 9, 2007, 11:59 AM
This is a perfect time to buy more AAPL. It will be going up to $225-$250 next year. I have been accumulating Apple stock for 10 years, and I am smiling big time.
10 years!! how many do you have? you could have big profit :p
Its the whole market... almost everything is in the red right now - but Apple is a strong company and I have every bit of confidence that it will rebound above the $190 mark pretty soon - which means that now is a great time to pick up some (more) shares! I already have... and will even more if it goes down again...
gkarris
Nov 9, 2007, 12:07 PM
They'll creep back up after the iPhone launch. Note that investors also "influence" the market values as to buy low and sell higher right after. That's how they are able to afford their boats and private jets...
derboy
Nov 9, 2007, 12:24 PM
the American financial industry looks to be in a very dire state. My worry is its ability to recover. Everyone seems to be taking money out of the usa. The weakening dollar also is a big issue.
I think I'd prefer to buy stock in apple's Chinese manufacturing business than the usa based one!!!
ccwilli3
Nov 9, 2007, 12:56 PM
they just announced earnings and a pullback is expected. You gotta buy on the speculation and sell on the news if you are a short timer. Long term investing, it doesn't matter...
maccompaq
Nov 9, 2007, 01:26 PM
I study the stock market all the time, and I am aware that Apple is one of the very few companies that is so innovative. Introducing futuristic designs and exciting new gadgets, and that is what drives the stock. Not to mention the very good Balance Sheet and Income Statement. While Apple stock has increased by more than $100 this year, Microsoft stock has only gone up around $4. Should I decide to sell my Apple stock, my profit will so much that I won't know what to do with it.
maccompaq
Nov 9, 2007, 01:31 PM
10 years!! how many do you have? you could have big profit :p
Bernard DeBaille of Belgium was a good friend of mine years ago when I lived in France. He only spoke French, but so did I, so we got on great. I wish I had kept in contact with him over the years.
See my other post to get somewhat of an idea of how many shares I have. I really hate to show that number on a public forum.
Genghis Khan
Nov 9, 2007, 01:31 PM
as has already been said, it's a general pullback...but i would go one step further and say it's a globel thing
the US economy is incredibly fragile right now, i personally have zero confidence in it...hopefully the next president can at least stabilise it:o
maccompaq
Nov 9, 2007, 01:45 PM
as has already been said, it's a general pullback...but i would go one step further and say it's a globel thing
the US economy is incredibly fragile right now, i personally have zero confidence in it...hopefully the next president can at least stabilise it:o
I find it incredible that residents of other countries feel that they are in the know about our economy. It is impossible to know unless you live it and invest in it day to day. Reading about it in the media or hearing about it on TV is the worst way to analyze anything. The media people are all about SENSATIONALISM. Furthermore, a President does not have that much long term influence on the whole US economy.
lofight
Nov 9, 2007, 02:25 PM
Bernard DeBaille of Belgium was a good friend of mine years ago when I lived in France. He only spoke French, but so did I, so we got on great. I wish I had kept in contact with him over the years.
See my other post to get somewhat of an idea of how many shares I have. I really hate to show that number on a public forum.
good idea not to tell, You'll probably have some stock ey.
Rodimus Prime
Nov 9, 2007, 05:12 PM
as has already been said, it's a general pullback...but i would go one step further and say it's a globel thing
the US economy is incredibly fragile right now, i personally have zero confidence in it...hopefully the next president can at least stabilise it:o
I will never get over the fact that people seem to think the president has any real control over the economy. The truth is they have very little control over it. Yet it is how we elect them is completely based on the economy.
cube
Nov 9, 2007, 05:18 PM
Oil at $98.62
CarlsonCustoms
Nov 9, 2007, 05:32 PM
If it drops down to $130 i'm gonna buy some.. just need to keep up on watching it
IJ Reilly
Nov 9, 2007, 05:33 PM
The markets are voting for a recession next year.
CalBoy
Nov 9, 2007, 08:38 PM
The markets are voting for a recession next year.
Indeed. The close today brought an end to a week of bad closings. I believe the Dow 30 is more than 500 points down for the week. With record high oil, weak earnings reports, problems in the financial sector...is it really too surprising?:(
balwx
Nov 9, 2007, 09:48 PM
Pretty nice drop the past two days. Trading ranges have been massive $10 today.. $20 on Thursday. I'm holding my shares. There hasnt been any aapl specific negative news the past two days. Selling has been on very heavy volume (approx. 1.5 normal the past two days), along the the market in general.
Fukui
Nov 10, 2007, 12:15 AM
as has already been said, it's a general pullback...but i would go one step further and say it's a globel thing
the US economy is incredibly fragile right now, i personally have zero confidence in it...hopefully the next president can at least stabilise it:o
The U.S economy is facing a cross-roads right now IMO, but the pres. has little to do with it. If anything, blame greed and the fed...
Genghis Khan
Nov 10, 2007, 01:45 AM
I find it incredible that residents of other countries feel that they are in the know about our economy. It is impossible to know unless you live it and invest in it day to day. Reading about it in the media or hearing about it on TV is the worst way to analyze anything. The media people are all about SENSATIONALISM. Furthermore, a President does not have that much long term influence on the whole US economy.
I will never get over the fact that people seem to think the president has any real control over the economy. The truth is they have very little control over it. Yet it is how we elect them is completely based on the economy.
all i said was that the US economy is 'incredibly fragile'...which it is
the housing crisis...i think it's 2 million households that are about to be displaced over the next 18 months...that's alot of houses at one level of the market that will lower prices...and alot of people searching for cheaper housing, pushing prices up in that market...not good
the falling dollar...the US dollar has fallen ALOT recently, even the aussie dollar is trading at 92-ish US cents last time i checked (versus 70 cent average for the last few years)
national debt...
see http://today.reuters.com/news/articleinvesting.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=2007-11-07T230701Z_01_N07545790_RTRIDST_0_USA-ECONOMY-DEBT.XML
so the government is running a deficit of US$160 billion this year (not much for the US economy i'll grant you)...but the private sector is in debt to the tune of US$9 trillion...because the PRESIDENT raised the debt limit (also note how much the president has spent on the war)
so yes...the US economy is INCREDIBLY FRAGILE
EDIT: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_public_debt
$5 trillion US federal debt
so everyone in the US is in massive debt...
maccompaq, a junior high school student could tell that the US economy is in dire straights...accept the truth and try to fix it (the latter may be a bit difficult to do personally)
WildCowboy
Nov 10, 2007, 01:54 AM
Moderator Note: Folks, we're starting to move toward topics that would be better suited for the Politics, Religion, and Social Issues forum. I'd prefer to keep it out here where everyone can contribute, so please tread lightly. Thanks. :)
Genghis Khan
Nov 10, 2007, 02:00 AM
lol...sorry...i digressed abit
the original point was that the apple stock fall is part of a global stock fall (except for the biggest and third biggest mining companies in the world which are discussing a merger:p)
and that the stock fall is very real...hopefully apple won't be hurt too bad (i think it will bounce back nicely, because it has alot of investment in asia, which shouldn't be affected)
erandall38
Nov 10, 2007, 03:42 PM
It is tough, but with AAPL it always seems these big dips come and then very quickly go back up. I have only owned AAPL since the low 80's but since then I have learned that with dips you buy buy buy.
I am worried this case is different, or will it be the same where I hit my self and say "I should have bought just like on every other dip." This drop compared more to the drop we had in August, both were problems with our economy. One big difference I am seeing is that all though they are both about a 13% drop the one in August took one month, the recent one took 3 days.
So now the question is are we hitting a recession or did we just have a correction? I was watching a video and this could be one way to figure it out. If AAPL hits the 161 mark and holds, we could be good, but if it falls down below 161 (and not just temporarily) then we could be headed down for a while. 161 is the 50 day moving average. Check out the video here, it is pretty interesting, but I am not sure how credible the Fibonacci method is. Also if you are only interested in AAPL then just watch the first minute or so. http://alphatrends.blogspot.com/2007/11/nasdaq-leaders.html
xenotaku
Nov 12, 2007, 02:12 PM
wow, well i just kissed goodbye 20k in the last week. :(
Feverish Flux
Nov 12, 2007, 02:16 PM
What the hell is going on?
$157.65 and dipping... :mad:
xenotaku
Nov 12, 2007, 02:31 PM
i have no idea, but its getting annoying. There isn't even a reason for the dip, everyone is taking profits because they are getting scared, and that in turn makes it dip more and then more people get scared, and its just dropping out of control now....
giaotze
Nov 12, 2007, 02:55 PM
Time to buy if it hits below 150
Woot
gr8tfly
Nov 12, 2007, 03:00 PM
Time to buy if it hits below 150
Woot
That was my number too. I've been thinking of placing a stop-limit at 150.
Unspeaked
Nov 12, 2007, 03:09 PM
It is tough, but with AAPL it always seems these big dips come and then very quickly go back up. I have only owned AAPL since the low 80's but since then I have learned that with dips you buy buy buy.
I don't care how you feel it will do long term, anyone who bought in the 80's and hasn't taken a little something off the table in the past few weeks as it hit the 180's is being *very* greedy.
I'm not saying you should have closed out your position, but a little profit taking on 125% gains is more than wise...
ccwilli3
Nov 12, 2007, 04:25 PM
another big drop. Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered. Live by that motto in the stock market! If you didn't get out near the peak after earnings, it's going to take a while to recoup these losses...
I'm personally hoping for it to sell off into the 130s...
Cybergypsy
Nov 12, 2007, 04:41 PM
wow, well i just kissed goodbye 20k in the last week. :(
I wish i only lost 20K.......
ktodack
Nov 12, 2007, 05:03 PM
Looks like big investors are bailing on any tech stock that has had good performance over the last six months. It's a real puzzle why Apple is getting hit even harder then the rest of Nasdaq. Of all the tech stocks Apple stands to gain the most over the next quarter--For Christmas it's flat screen HDTV's and Apple branded products. Just looks like big investors are looking for a major recession and a bad Christmas. I think it's way overblown, mortgage problems effect a lot of people-- but not that many to cause the overselling thats occured over the last week. Apple at $154--it's crazy
IJ Reilly
Nov 12, 2007, 05:12 PM
Looking for logic in the stock market -- good luck with that.
FWIW, there's very little investing going on anymore, it's all about trading. These days, momentum means more than fundamentals, at least in the short run.
As for those who argue that it's automatically wise to have taken money off the table in the 180s, I say that's only possible to say with perfect 20-20 hindsight. I've held on for ten years and plan on continuing to hold on because over the long haul, it's never been the wrong decision to do so. The point is, I don't know enough to be a trader, so I have to be an investor.
erandall38
Nov 12, 2007, 05:53 PM
I don't care how you feel it will do long term, anyone who bought in the 80's and hasn't taken a little something off the table in the past few weeks as it hit the 180's is being *very* greedy.
I'm not saying you should have closed out your position, but a little profit taking on 125% gains is more than wise...
I had a response typed out but i realized it was a waste of time. People who know this company and study it and study its financials love people like you. Keep using your method on AAPL because I love getting stock and options at a discount. Thanks!
Unspeaked
Nov 13, 2007, 10:29 AM
I had a response typed out but i realized it was a waste of time. People who know this company and study it and study its financials love people like you. Keep using your method on AAPL because I love getting stock and options at a discount. Thanks!
You're welcome!
And I'm sure the people who sold after the first drop from the $190s to the $180s had a ball picking their shares back up in the $150s yesterday! Nothing like an extra 20% of AAPL shares for free (less capital gains, of course)...
erandall38
Nov 13, 2007, 10:37 AM
You're welcome!
And I'm sure the people who sold after the first drop from the $190s to the $180s had a ball picking their shares back up in the $150s yesterday! Nothing like an extra 20% of AAPL shares for free (less capital gains, of course)...
Well whoever those people are who can time the market perfectly should sell their crystal ball for lots of money.
Do you know the likleyhood of timing the market like that? What about all the people that use that method and tried doing it at 89, 95, 105, etc? They lost out on so many gains for the *chance* that they could make more off of some correction they think is needed because the stock is growing????? There was some report a few months back that came out from meryl lynch a few months ago. It said something along the lines of: that 7 of the top trading days last year made up 50% of the growth for the year, so why play the timing game and possibly miss out on those days?? If you want to play games play options?
IJ Reilly
Nov 13, 2007, 11:09 AM
Well whoever those people are who can time the market perfectly should sell their crystal ball for lots of money.
They should definitely quit their day jobs.
Unspeaked
Nov 13, 2007, 11:42 AM
Well whoever those people are who can time the market perfectly should sell their crystal ball for lots of money.
Do you know the likleyhood of timing the market like that? What about all the people that use that method and tried doing it at 89, 95, 105, etc? They lost out on so many gains for the *chance* that they could make more off of some correction they think is needed because the stock is growing????? There was some report a few months back that came out from meryl lynch a few months ago. It said something along the lines of: that 7 of the top trading days last year made up 50% of the growth for the year, so why play the timing game and possibly miss out on those days?? If you want to play games play options?
Oh, I'm sorry - the OP I was replying to said they bought at 80 and I said they should have taken some off the table when it doubled.
Since when is a 100% gain not a good return?
Even if someone who bought in the 80s sold in the 160s back in September and never got a chance to buy back, they still doubled their money. That's not a good enough return for you?
In any case, getting back to the person I was originally replying to, I said they should have sold part of their holding when they were up over 100% and kept the rest. At that point, they'd have made a handsome return, gotten back all their original investment and continued to play with house money from here on it, letting it ride to whereever with zero risk. How is this a bad move? I would take certain 100% returns and free play money over buying and holding anyday.
IJ Reilly
Nov 13, 2007, 11:56 AM
Since when is a 100% gain not a good return?.
Here's when. If I'd have followed your advice, I would have sold out about eight years ago and missed the opportunity to multiply my investment many times over.
My basis for the AAPL I'm holding now happens to be about $5.00/share. There's really no "risk" to my hanging on through these downturns, nauseating though they may be, because experience has told me that they are temporary.
Unspeaked
Nov 13, 2007, 12:07 PM
Here's when. If I'd have followed your advice, I would have sold out about eight years ago and missed the opportunity to multiply my investment many times over.
My basis for the AAPL I'm holding now happens to be about $5.00/share. There's really no "risk" to my hanging on through these downturns, nauseating though they may be, because experience has told me that they are temporary.
You wouldn't have missed out on the opportunity to multiply your investment because you would have kept a position.
The only thing you would have done for certain was make a return, which you couldn't have been sure of in the future, just as someone who bought Apple under $100 could make a certain return today or hold not sell it and make a possible return in the future (but also a loss).
That's why I advocate selling enough to make back your original investment, and letting the rest ride.
Sure, in your example with AAPL eight years ago, you'd have missed out on a lot of gains; but in 95% of cases you wouldn't have. Heck, even a stable tech company like ADBE has only now just gotten back to the highs it set eight years ago. Somebody who bought it back then and held would be looking at no gains whatsoever.
Everyone's acting like I'm being the risky one here, but investors that don't take some gains when presented with them and let them ride and no better than folks who double their money in Vegas and lose it all because they didn't cash out in time.
(Again, let me reiterate: you, IJ Reilly, have done a good thing, but your situation isn't the norm here...)
IJ Reilly
Nov 13, 2007, 12:47 PM
You wouldn't have missed out on the opportunity to multiply your investment because you would have kept a position.
The only thing you would have done for certain was make a return, which you couldn't have been sure of in the future, just as someone who bought Apple under $100 could make a certain return today or hold not sell it and make a possible return in the future (but also a loss).
That's why I advocate selling enough to make back your original investment, and letting the rest ride.
Sure, in your example with AAPL eight years ago, you'd have missed out on a lot of gains; but in 95% of cases you wouldn't have. Heck, even a stable tech company like ADBE has only now just gotten back to the highs it set eight years ago. Somebody who bought it back then and held would be looking at no gains whatsoever.
Everyone's acting like I'm being the risky one here, but investors that don't take some gains when presented with them and let them ride and no better than folks who double their money in Vegas and lose it all because they didn't cash out in time.
(Again, let me reiterate: you, IJ Reilly, have done a good thing, but your situation isn't the norm here...)
I understand what you are saying. It's certainly not an unsound approach to investing, but by the same token, there's no such thing as a one-size-fits-all strategy.
Incidentally, I have sold some of my AAPL position, so my initial investment was covered a long time ago. I have often wished I'd held onto those shares, too. No regrets, though. You do what you do when you need to do it.
In general terms, I'd say if you think you understand the company and the risks of investing in it, then this knowledge should guide your investing decisions more than the stock price on any given day, especially when traders are rushing into and out of the stock for no obvious reason. Wall Street is a very emotional place. A little guy investor can't afford to get swept up in it, because they will almost always get trampled.
erandall38
Nov 13, 2007, 12:57 PM
You wouldn't have missed out on the opportunity to multiply your investment because you would have kept a position.
The only thing you would have done for certain was make a return, which you couldn't have been sure of in the future, just as someone who bought Apple under $100 could make a certain return today or hold not sell it and make a possible return in the future (but also a loss).
That's why I advocate selling enough to make back your original investment, and letting the rest ride.
Sure, in your example with AAPL eight years ago, you'd have missed out on a lot of gains; but in 95% of cases you wouldn't have. Heck, even a stable tech company like ADBE has only now just gotten back to the highs it set eight years ago. Somebody who bought it back then and held would be looking at no gains whatsoever.
Everyone's acting like I'm being the risky one here, but investors that don't take some gains when presented with them and let them ride and no better than folks who double their money in Vegas and lose it all because they didn't cash out in time.
(Again, let me reiterate: you, IJ Reilly, have done a good thing, but your situation isn't the norm here...)
When investing you really have to understand the internals and externals of the company you are investing in, like Reilly said above, this will guide your investment decisions. I guess with what I know about this company and how this economy is effecting it I felt that if it dips you buy. How many people freaked out and said we need to take some of our large gains and missed the $15 rally? Now some of them are buying back after missing the rally AND paying capital gains taxes. And out of all those people how many actually perfectly timed the market to make it worth it?
In the state AAPL is in right now and yes even with how the economy is right now you buy on AAPL dips b/c it is on sale.
I hope I am not coming across as being offensive, I really enjoy exchanging investment strategies/ideas. This helps me keep an open mind as well as objective investment style.
Thanks to all who have been participating.
edit: IJ Reilly, congrats on holding that long, I doubt there are many people that can say they did that let alone many people that could handle it through all the years.
Dave00
Nov 13, 2007, 01:04 PM
The volatility comes with speculation. When I bought apple last year, it was because it had a good value and a bright future, and the P/E was reasonable. Sales of iPods and Macs were increasing. It was a good value.
Now, however, there's a lot of speculation on board. At its peak a few weeks ago, the P/E was around 50. Given that traditional P/E for a tech stock is around 20, that means the market is anticipating the earnings more than doubling. That's a lot of speculation. Add to that the folks who look at the stock's price chart and try to impute some sort of predictive power, and it becomes a roller coaster. It's like the birds on the beach. One gets spooked, and those around it take off, and pretty soon you have a mass evacuation of a stretch of beach. Could've been because of a real danger, or because the first bird had an itch. You can see this a lot with three growth stocks - Apple, Google, and RIM. They go up and down like escalators with no rhyme or reason. Trying to go along with this, or predict when it's going to happen, is a good way to get burned. That's why, consistently, people that trade more frequently have poorer results than those that buy and hold.
Another example - look at ETrade. The stock lost a mind-boggling 60% of its value in one day. Was it in response to poor earnings, a CEO scandal, or the loss of a major client? Nope. Just some supposed guru at Citi saying they had a 15% chance of going bankrupt. Same thing happened to aapl around the time of release of the iPhone when an analyst reported he heard a rumor sales weren't that good (and not even for a good rumor site like this one.)
Best thing to do is to find a good company you know something about, figure out how much it's worth, and wait for it to go on sale after some bad news. When you sell depends much less on the stock price than whether the fundamentals that made it a good buy have changed. Does Apple have the potential to justify basically spending twice what it's currently worth? I happen to think it does, which is why I've held onto it despite the price having nearly tripled since when I bought it. If the price were to drop below 30x earnings, I'd probably buy more. Now, if they start releasing clunker products, then that's time to sell, no matter what the price.
Apple up 10% today. Crazy.
Dave
erandall38
Nov 13, 2007, 01:17 PM
Another example - look at ETrade. The stock lost a mind-boggling 60% of its value in one day. Was it in response to poor earnings, a CEO scandal, or the loss of a major client? Nope. Just some supposed guru at Citi saying they had a 15% chance of going bankrupt. Same thing happened to aapl around the time of release of the iPhone when an analyst reported he heard a rumor sales weren't that good (and not even for a good rumor site like this one.)
Dave
= manipulation
speaking of the which, you know who I really dislike? Jim Cramer.
What is everyones view on Apple's contingency plan? Any ideas of what they would do if Steve Jobs was no longer the CEO whether it was under his control or not?
This is the thing I have been trying to really look up on lately. I think loosing Steve Jobs to an unplanned, unfortunate situation would take a huge bite out of AAPL, again I would not try to time the market. Apple's fundamentals would not change directly because Steve Jobs was gone, but the new CEO could change Apple's fundamentals through his future actions. This could be a time to get out....
Who are the possibilities?
IJ Reilly
Nov 13, 2007, 01:52 PM
edit: IJ Reilly, congrats on holding that long, I doubt there are many people that can say they did that let alone many people that could handle it through all the years.
WHO SAID I COULD HANDLE IT? IT'S DRIVING ME FREAKING NUTS!!!
Sorry. Thanks. :o
Now, however, there's a lot of speculation on board. At its peak a few weeks ago, the P/E was around 50. Given that traditional P/E for a tech stock is around 20, that means the market is anticipating the earnings more than doubling. That's a lot of speculation. Add to that the folks who look at the stock's price chart and try to impute some sort of predictive power, and it becomes a roller coaster. It's like the birds on the beach. One gets spooked, and those around it take off, and pretty soon you have a mass evacuation of a stretch of beach. Could've been because of a real danger, or because the first bird had an itch.
I like your analogy. An economics prof I had in college asked the class if a depression could be caused by a rooster crowing on Mt. Everest. The answer is yes, if people believed that a rooster crowing on Mt. Everest would cause a depression, then it could. The point is, markets are all about mass psychology. I've always remembered that lesson.
I'm a little wary of quoting trailing P/E though. For a rapidly-growing company like Apple, this is not a good way of predicting future earnings. At the very least, you should be looking at forward P/E as well. This is an estimate/educated guess of course but at least it's an estimate about the future, instead of statement about the past.
Dave00
Nov 13, 2007, 02:10 PM
What is everyones view on Apple's contingency plan? Any ideas of what they would do if Steve Jobs was no longer the CEO whether it was under his control or not?
There's no way to know. Life is unpredictable. You never know when someone is going to get sick or have a midlife crisis or just be ready to retire. How the company will do after his departure has to do with how well he is training his upper-level management. People that manage with a tight reign are harder to replace than those who delegate. No idea how Jobs manages. In an industry like that, you need to be constantly taking risks, but they have to be the right risks. The iMac, iPod, iTMS, switch to Intel, and iPhone have all been enormous risks. Jury's still out on the iPhone, but everything else was a home run. They've also had some big risk failures, such as the Cube (I'm still not sure why the Cube failed but Mac Mini was such a success). They need to keep taking risks. I still think a media center (more robust than the Apple TV) has great potential. Even the Apple TV itself has some easy-to-fix annoyances that could greatly expand the product base. Why no on/off switch? (My #1 peeve) And why only YouTube on the internet? I'd love to have a nice weather widget or phone book.
Ok done with my tangent. But basically, I'm hoping Jobs is training others to be able to make the kinds of decisions he has over the past few years.
Dave00
Nov 13, 2007, 02:33 PM
I'm a little wary of quoting trailing P/E though. For a rapidly-growing company like Apple, this is not a good way of predicting future earnings. At the very least, you should be looking at forward P/E as well. This is an estimate/educated guess of course but at least it's an estimate about the future, instead of statement about the past.
True, the trailing P/E can be misleading if a situation is in flux. Countrywide Financial, for instance, has a trailing P/E of just 3.8, which makes it sound like a good buy until you realize that earnings are being crushed by the mortgage problems. But forward P/E has the disadvantage of being based on prediction, whereas trailing P/E is based on hard numbers, assuming the company isn't fudging their books. If the trailing P/E is high, you're expecting the earnings to go up - the higher the P/E, the greater the amount it has to grow in order to justify the price. There are certain multiples I just won't touch. I love Amazon, but I'm not going to pay 92x earnings for it, as I just don't see it quadrupling any time soon. Same for Research in Motion at P/E of 70-ish. For Google, as great a company as it is, to justify its 51 P/E multiple, you have to think they're going to double. I'd rather buy them on sale, which I think is going to happen- if Cisco saying people might be cutting back on their tech spending was enough to send completely unrelated stocks into a tailspin, imagine what's going to happen when something really does happen.
Part of owning apple stock, however, is not about making money. It's about owning a piece of a company whose products you enjoy and whose innovation you want to support.
Unspeaked
Nov 13, 2007, 02:39 PM
The volatility/manipulation thing that's been mentioned really ties into the point I was trying to make, as well - no company's stock, no matter how secure, is risk proof.
Apple in particular swings a lot for something with such a large market cap, even though the overall trend is up.
Part of owning apple stock, however, is not about making money. It's about owning a piece of a company whose products you enjoy and whose innovation you want to support.
That has *always* been a really good strategy; buy what you know, like and use!
IJ Reilly
Nov 13, 2007, 02:57 PM
That has *always* been a really good strategy; buy what you know, like and use!
It is, but that's not really what he said. If I want to "support" Apple, I buy their products. Buying the stock is about making money.
ccwilli3
Nov 13, 2007, 04:05 PM
nice bump today! Lots of volatility here for sure. Maybe it'll be the beginning of an up trend in the stock...
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