iPod Projections

[MacRumors]

Both AppleInsider (http://www.appleinsider.com/news.php?id=739) and $54.29/share ("]Think Secret[/url] are reporting that projected sales of iPods in the current quarter should top 4 million units, pushing Apple past the $3 billion revenue mark. This number is up from the 2.68 million figure Merrill Lynch analyst Steven Milunovich gave in October. In addition, Merrill Lynch raised the target stock price for Apple to $61/share. As of this posting, the stock is at [url="http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&lr=lang_en&c2coff=1&safe=off&prev=/search%3Fq%3Daapl%26num%3D20%26hl%3Den%26lr%3Dlang_en%26c2coff%3D1%26safe%3Doff&q=stocks:AAPL+).

[snahabed]

Great news, but it cannot last forever. I hope Apple isn't resting on its laurels, and IS coming up with the next big phenomenon!

[supergod]

meh. When are they going to have 8 gig minis? If it isn't soon, I might just get a used 10 gig.

[Wonder Boy]

bought 2 for xmas already...

[Lord Blackadder]

I remember back in high school when Apple stock was around $25 a share. I should've bought some then...

[jholzner]

WOW...that is a huge increase. From 2.68 million to 3 billion!! :p

[GetSome681]

I remember back in high school when Apple stock was around $25 a share. I should've bought some then...

lol i remember when it was $18 just a few years ago...

[Wes]

I just ordered a Mini for my brother today and saw quite a few units leave in those few minutes I was there.

[johnnyjibbs]

** MEMO TO SELF: BUY APPLE SHARES **

I've just got my first iPod and am loving it. :)

[merge]

lol i remember when it was $18 just a few years ago...

a few??? it was 19 THIS YEAR!!!
A few years ago my grandmother bought a couple hundred shares at $14, which has since split... so she is at 400 some shares... and made a decent chunk of change.

[dongmin]

a few??? it was 19 THIS YEAR!!!
A few years ago my grandmother bought a couple hundred shares at $14, which has since split... so she is at 400 some shares... and made a decent chunk of change.Right on.

52-week low: 19.25 late december
52-week high: 56.11 last week

The stock has doubled in the last 5-6 months or so. Hot, I'd say.

[Windowlicker]

hmm in case the stock will be at around 20 some day, I will consider getting some.. How high can it actually get?! right now everything looks pretty good for Apple.

[paulypants]

Right on.

52-week low: 19.25 late december
52-week high: 56.11 last week

The stock has doubled in the last 5-6 months or so. Hot, I'd say.

it was at a little over 11$ a share about 18mnths ago...
was gonna buy, had the cash --- didn't. I'm an idiot! :mad:

[Xtremehkr]

I wish I had bought earlier this year when Apple stock was around $19.

There is probably time though, the MP3 player market is still tiny and there is a lot of growth to come. MP3 players still aren't as prevalent as CD players and the like. My bet is they will replace them before too long though, I love not having to carry CDs around.

[swissmann]

I'm glad that the iPod is helping out this computer company so much financially. I just hope that they continue to focus on the computer side as well. I love my iPod but if I had to give up my iPod or my Mac easily the iPod would go. Also the stock has been hot, but I would be surprised if it goes much higher than it is now. I'm not the greatest investor though so don't trade off my opinion. :)

[Sir_Giggles]

** MEMO TO SELF: BUY APPLE SHARES **

I've just got my first iPod and am loving it. :)


LOL. Probably now would be the best time to sell.

[gadg]

Indeed Apple has to start thinking about innovation again. It's great to have this iPod succes going on, but to sustain this kind of succes they are going to have to start coming out with new products soon. Now is the time for them, they have good press, good sales, good shares, good exposure, happy users. Ride it, Steve!

Slightly off topic, I've been thinking about what their next move will be. Their three 'digital media' toys are iTunes, the iPod and the Airport Express. The links between iTunes and iPod is there, the link between iTunes and AE is there. iPods can't talk to AE though. Although Apple execs have been reported to hint about remote controls for music going from iTunes to AE, I personally don't think those are coming from Apple anytime soon. They would have released them by now. So I'm thinking the route Apple will take is to put Airport into the iPod. Add a little hardware, perhaps push the cpu cycles and upgrade software to translate and transmit Apple Lossless to the AE. Slightly boring evolution if you ask me. High probability though.

As I don't have a need for an iPod, I'm personally hoping for the remote control. I'm considering the purchase of a second hand PowerMac as my iTunes host, since I don't want to depend on my Powerbook being up and running.

Well, I guess if it would allow me to mount the harddrive over wifi, I might consider buying it.

[Sabbath]

it was at a little over 11$ a share about 18mnths ago...
was gonna buy, had the cash --- didn't. I'm an idiot! :mad:

I was in exactly the same position, when it was at $13. I'm ripping my hair out now but that's life. I can't see it going much further like this, admittedly at $13 it was ridiculously low when Apple's cash reserves were considered, but I think too much is being banked on the iPod. At the moment the iPod has a massive market share in a growing market segment but can that really continue? I guess the key issue is whether Apple can keep us updating our iPods.

[kevinuaa]

Rember the fall of 2001. pun intended.
seriously, be careful!

[howard]

jeez i wish i had enough money to invest in stocks...

[fatbarstard]

We are all kicking our heads in about not buying AAPL when it was below $20... but that is the way ot goes some times... the stock ran from teh high $30s to over $50 in about a week!!

It is explainable by Brownian motion which is pretty much the same thing as having a random walk down Wall Street..

But for those thinking of buying I caution with via the Dogs of the Dow theory.. The theory is that the sotck that have been the worst performers in the Dow this year will be the best performers next year and vice versa.

AAPL has massively outperformed the NASDAQ and just about every other major market index - the share price has done incredibly well. But the caution is don't expect this to last - the price will consolidate around a higher level.

:)

[asif786]

hey,

i know a lot of us are a bit pissed because we think apple is just focusing on iPod's - but think about it - it's a big moneymaker, and more money for apple means more r&d, which will lead to better computers.

apple know what they're doing. let milk the cash cow for all that it's worth. - in fact the PR/news coverage that the iPod has generated for apple has been crazy - probably worth tens/hundreds of millions of dollars. A lot more people know who apple is these days.

[AndrewMT]

Just when do we take Appleinsider and Thinksecret's projections over Merrill Lynch?

[RugoseCone]

I bought a bunch of shares at a little over $14 back in spring of '03. Woohoo! Not sure how much longer I'll hold them, especially if they hit the target of $61.

I wish I had bought TravelZoo stock then too. It closed over $100 a share today after being $5 a year ago.

[joemama]

I bought a bunch of shares at a little over $14 back in spring of '03. Woohoo! Not sure how much longer I'll hold them, especially if they hit the target of $61.

I wish I had bought TravelZoo stock then too. It closed over $100 a share today after being $5 a year ago.

What the heck is TravelZoo??!?!? Am I out of the loop?

Regardless, I was lucky enough to buy a crapload of Apple shares at the 13 dollar mark back in the day....too bad I couldn't afford more. Hey, what's this about the stock split?!??! This is the first I've heard....

[~Shard~]

We are all kicking our heads in about not buying AAPL when it was below $20... but that is the way ot goes some times... the stock ran from teh high $30s to over $50 in about a week!!

It is explainable by Brownian motion which is pretty much the same thing as having a random walk down Wall Street..


Hindsight is always 20/20... :cool:

[virividox]

i wonder what the next big wave will be

[SiliconAddict]

i wonder what the next big wave will be


Two words.......


Color socks... :D

[feakbeak]

I'm glad that the iPod is helping out this computer company so much financially. I just hope that they continue to focus on the computer side as well. I love my iPod but if I had to give up my iPod or my Mac easily the iPod would go. Also the stock has been hot, but I would be surprised if it goes much higher than it is now. I'm not the greatest investor though so don't trade off my opinion. :)

I'm not the greatest investor either, but I find it very suspicious that Apple exec's have been offloading hundreds of thousands of shares of stock since the last quarterly earnings call. Several Apple execs have cashed out tens of millions of dollars worth of stock. For a company with a current market cap of 20 billion, those sales might not amount to much, but why pull out unless you think the stock price has peaked?

But, what do I know, perhaps those hundreds of thousands of shares are a just a small amount of their Apple stock holdings and they are just taking out a few million for Christmas shopping. I suppose it is more likely that the execs had pre-planned orders that executed since execs are so often blacked out from stock transationcs due to SEC regulations... it's more fun to speculate though. :rolleyes:

[toolhouse]

lol i remember when it was $18 just a few years ago...

I bought 1000 shares at $22 when nobody believed. Lovin it now!!!

[edenwaith]

Just within the past 18 months, I think the stock got as low as $13 per share. I asked my father who is a CPA for a share or few, mostly just so I could have some, not necessarily for financial gain. However, being the complete idiot that I am and never knowing anything (extreme sarcasm here), look at what happened! That stock price was one of the lowest prices ever for Apple and now they have recently shot up way beyond I would have ever thought they would have! I would be happy with the stock at $25. If it truly has shot up to $54 per share, that looks good for Apple. But then, I have no real trust in Wall Street. Who are they to determine how much a company should be worth? Several quarters ago, it seemed like that whenever Apple would post a profit or come out with a new product, their stock would go down! Huh?! But too bad I didn't invest in some stock. If I had had lots of money, I would have really done well now. But then again, maybe if I had bought a lottery ticket, I might have won. Then again...maybe not.

[MacFan26]

Wow, it's nice to see Apple's stock to go up a bit. Not that it really matters to an average consumer, but it's still cool. Hopefully it will stay up not just because of iPods, but because of it's hardware/software too. When the iPod craze dies down, they're going to need something to keep them there. (not that they don't have it, but they need to market it!)

[RugoseCone]

What the heck is TravelZoo??!?!? Am I out of the loop?

Regardless, I was lucky enough to buy a crapload of Apple shares at the 13 dollar mark back in the day....too bad I couldn't afford more. Hey, what's this about the stock split?!??! This is the first I've heard....


http://www.travelzoo.com/

They went public a few years ago and had a promotion where they gave you a free share for every person you emailed their promo to. Or something like that. I've got a handful of shares, nothing significant.

Apple stock last split back on June 21, 2000. If you had stock before then you would have gotten a 2 for 1 split.

[~Shard~]

Two words.......


Color socks... :D

I really want some iSocks... :cool:

[macmax77]

it was at a little over 11$ a share about 18mnths ago...
was gonna buy, had the cash --- didn't. I'm an idiot! :mad:

+100, arggghghghg
:mad:

[~Shard~]

I bought 1000 shares at $22 when nobody believed. Lovin it now!!!

Must be nice to throw $20,000 into one stock. So are you a doctor or a bull-@#$%ter? :p

[eazyway]

Must be nice to throw $20,000 into one stock. So are you a doctor or a bull-@#$%ter? :p

The Apple options are a nice buy just before the next financial release. The last three times the stock has gapped up. But when the analysts get on board and also start to jack up the expectations the stock price starts to run ahead of itself. This Q will likely bring the last gap up. (if at all) for example You could have bought Jan05 $50 call options for 75 cents just prior to the release of Q4 data. They now sell for $6.90 a share . Almost a tenfold increase.

I buy and sell a lot of Options. If the iMac sells and the iPod keeps on selling my best guess is that Apple will be at $80 a share in Feb and start to fall during the next Q. I really hated that Merrill upped the price target to $61.. This means the stock has less of a chance to gap as the price will be driven up from now until January.

[toolhouse]

Must be nice to throw $20,000 into one stock. So are you a doctor or a bull-@#$%ter? :p


None of the above. Just a mac believer since day one. I make money on my mac. Even own a working Lisa. Done well investing in companies I believe in. Never even considered buying one share of MS on principle, even though I would have made money.

[ASP272]

Never even considered buying one share of MS on principle, even though I would have made money.

A true Mac believer. Keeping away from the dark side like that. Way to go! I got in on the ground floor of UPS stock (at the employee rate) and I'm loving that.

On another note, I believe the iPod Photo is really going to take off when they add quicktime to it. Such an easy addition, you know they didn't add it already as a marketing strategy for the next revision to sell like this one.

You go you smart Apple marketing people! :D

[~Shard~]

None of the above. Just a mac believer since day one. I make money on my mac. Even own a working Lisa. Done well investing in companies I believe in. Never even considered buying one share of MS on principle, even though I would have made money.

Good for you then bud, that's the way to do it. (And I was just having some fun, hope you didn't take it personally - that's just the way I am... ;))

And although I wish could have gotten in on the MS IPO in '86, I don't think I would consider buying their stock anytime soon either... :cool:

[jared_kipe]

And I tell my dad to buy stock earlier this year, and then in september he goes "oh I knew not to buy stock, they don't have any imacs for the back to school crowd." If only he had bought.

[Jigglelicious]

This is great news. Now all Apple has to do is get people as interested in their computers as with the iPod!

[sinisterdesign]

... Although Apple execs have been reported to hint about remote controls for music going from iTunes to AE, I personally don't think those are coming from Apple anytime soon. They would have released them by now. So I'm thinking the route Apple will take is to put Airport into the iPod. Add a little hardware, perhaps push the cpu cycles and upgrade software to translate and transmit Apple Lossless to the AE. Slightly boring evolution if you ask me. High probability though.

i've been wondering about this also. i'm not sure how i feel about the AXp in my iPod, though. if i'm close enough to my AXp nodes, i'm in range of my G4 to do that work. if i'm "on the road", wouldn't it be easier to just run an audio cable to the speakers straight from the iPod? apart from wireless headphones (would i need a brick the size of the AXp on the side of my head for those to work?), i'm just not a big fan of wireless contained w/in the ipod.

people keep posting here about making the iPod the remote for itunes, but there are just too many reasons not to do that:

- for starters, i don't want a $600 remote.
- secondly, i sometimes leave it in the car. that's ok right now b/c i only listen to it in the car & at work, but i don't want to have to track it down every time i need to change a song.
- how many times have you guys dropped a remote? any of them have hard drives in them? exactly
- i'm certainly no EE, but wouldn't it be fairly simple to do some sort of normal IR remote interface that would plug into the USB port on the AXp to control itunes? a similar thing to those IR repeaters that some stereos come with? IR remote sends signal to the AXp, translates info, sends it to iTunes & then back. someone please get going on this, i'm tired of running up & down the stairs in my loft!! ;)

[AirUncleP]

Two words.......


Color socks... :D

At $29 you might me right.

[cubist]

4 million iPods... Notice that nobody has had to say the words "million units" in connection with Apple computers for a long, long time. If the profit margin on iPods is where it should be, the computer biz will likely be only an afterthought for the near future.

[macidiot]

I really want some iSocks... :cool:


How sad is it when Apple makes something so silly. Of course, I'm getting them :D

btw, I'm doing my part. I just got myself an iPod. Its kind of heavy though...

Oh, and I think Apple will be at 80 a year from now. Barring anything crazy happening, they can move 20-25 million iPods next year easy. Of course, if they come out with a flash pod, like a 2-4GB for $150-$200 and add a 6GB mini, could be more like 35-40million.