Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, July 2014

[Doctor Q]

This is the 23rd edition of my semi-annual analysis of the MacRumors Top 50 Posters.

Previous "Top 50 Posters Extrapolated" threads:

2003 (July); 2004 (January, July); 2005 (January, July); 2006 (January, July); 2007 (January, July); 2008 (January, July); 2009 (January, July); 2010 (January, July); 2011 (January, July); 2012 (January, July); 2013 (January, July), 2014 (January)
​

The legend of column headings follows each chart. Measurements were taken yesterday (July 3rd).

As I'm sure you know, this thread is for general interest and discussion of posting habits. It's not an invitation to post for the sake of increasing your post count.


Chart #1: Current Top 50 Posters

Computed by Doctor Q in July 2014

                      Cur     Cur   Prev  Delta
Rank  Current Top 50  Posts   Rate  Rank  Rank
----  --------------  ------  ----  ----  -----
 1    GGJstudios      41,001   4.4    1      0
 2    GoCubsGo        34,826   2.6    2      0
 3    mad jew         32,195   0.0    3      0
 4    Doctor Q        31,721   2.1    4      0
 5    Applejuiced     31,117   6.3    5      0
 6    mkrishnan       29,621   0.0    6      0
 7    maflynn         29,395  29.1   11     +4
 8    Eidorian        28,865   0.6    7     -1
 9    rdowns          26,587   1.6    8     -1
10    robbieduncan    24,479   0.3    9     -1
11    Abstract        24,143   0.0   10     -1
12    jsw             22,803   0.1   12      0
13    Mr. Anderson    22,411   0.0   13      0
14    simsaladimbamba 22,070   5.0   16     +2
15    Blue Velvet     21,628   0.0   14     -1
16    Hellhammer      21,537   0.2   15     -1
17    alphaod         20,202   5.5   23     +6
18    Dagless         19,972   1.0   17     -1
19    bartelby        19,787   0.0   18     -1
20    Jaffa Cake      19,744   0.8   19     -1
21    iGary           19,583   0.0   20     -1
22    miles01110      19,264   0.0   21     -1
23    PlaceofDis      19,233   0.0   22     -1
24    iBlue           19,173   0.0   24      0
25    edesignuk       19,104   0.0   25      0

                      Cur     Cur   Prev  Delta
Rank  Current Top 50  Posts   Rate  Rank  Rank
----  --------------  ------  ----  ----  -----
26    ~Shard~         18,359   0.1   26      0
27    MacNut          18,261   2.8   27      0
28    MacDawg         17,514   1.0   28      0
29    DoFoT9          17,356   0.4   29      0
30    dukebound85     17,285   0.3   30      0
31    Peace           17,172   2.7   32     +1
32    balamw          17,132   1.8   31     -1
33    -aggie-         16,695   1.5   35     +2
34    wdlove          16,571   0.0   33     -1
35    MacRumorUser    16,410   7.7   44     +9
36    Nermal          16,391   1.7   36      0
37    yellow          15,913   0.0   37      0
38    sushi           15,630   0.0   38      0
39    WildCowboy      15,576   0.5   40     +1
40    devilot         15,532   0.0   39     -1
41    Intell          15,200   8.6  ---    ---
42    twoodcc         15,120   0.1   41     -1
43    IJ Reilly       15,057   5.9   48     +5
44    Surely          15,045   0.0   42     -2
45    KnightWRX       15,043   0.0   43     -2
46    r.j.s           14,892   0.0   45     -1
47    Sun Baked       14,728   0.2   46     -1
48    jav6454         14,652   1.6   47     -1
49    SandboxGeneral  14,350  11.9  ---    ---
50    dejo            14,287   2.9   50      0

Columns:

1. Rank = Position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
   
2. Current Top 50 = members with the 50 currently highest post counts.
   
3. Cur Posts = # of posts by that member.
   
4. Cur Rate = average # posts per day by that member over the last 6 months.
   
5. Prev Rank = previous rank, as of 6 months ago (January 2014), or "---" for those who are new to the Top 50.
   
6. Delta Rank = change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank since 6 months ago.

Observations

1. GGJstudios remains the only member with more than 40,000 posts. At the time I took my measurements yesterday, he had over 41,000 posts. That wasn't true one day earlier.
   
   
2. As projected six months ago, Intell (#41) and SandboxGeneral (#49) have joined the Top 50.
   
   
3. As projected, bousozoku dropped out of the Top 50. Contrary to the projection, IJ Reilly remains in the Top 50.
   
   
4. As projected last time, maflynn moved into the Top 10, passing rdowns and robbieduncan. His recent post rate was higher than projected, which also moved him up past Eidorian.
   
   
5. simsaladimbamba (now #14) and alphaod (now #17) maintained rates of 5 to 6 posts per day, moving them both up past several members making less than 1 post per day.
   
   
6. The invisible barrier between the Top 25 and the Next 25 held once again. No members crossed the above-below-25 border.
   
   
7. The biggest overall increase was MacRumorUser, up 9 slots from #44 to #35. Next was alphaod, up 6, and IJ Reilly, up 5.
   
   
8. Only two members dropped more than 1 slot. They were Surely and KnightWRX, both inactive. Each dropped 2 slots.
   
   
9. Six members made over 1000 posts in the last 6 months: maflynn (an unprecedented 5,267 posts), SandboxGeneral (2,149 posts), Intell (1,562 posts), MacRumorUser (1,393 posts), Applejuiced (1,140 posts), and IJ Reilly (1,075 posts). alphaod just missed with 998 posts.
   
   
10. Several members who are not in the Top 50 also had impressive post counts, led by Weaselboy with 2,872 posts.
    
    
11. Almost half the Top 50 posters (23 of them) made fewer than 10 posts in the last 6 months, or none at all. I've noticed that many members who haven't posted in many months or years still stop by to lurk.
    
    
12. Biggest news: mac15, who was a Top 50 member when I first started keeping track in 2003, and for a couple of years afterwards, had not posted in over 8 years, but returned this very week! He posted on Wednesday (depending on your time zone), a big surprise after such a long absence.

Other stats and charts

• Current Top 50 Posters (Chart #1, this post)
  
  
• 6-Month Projected Top 50 Posters (Chart #2)
  
  
• "End of Time" Top 50 Posters (Chart #3)
  
  
• Years of Membership
  
  
• Top 50 Posts During Each 6-Month Period

 

[Doctor Q]

Years of membership

Here's the traditional graph showing how long the Top 50 have been forum members.

Mr. Anderson will continue to top this chart for years to come. Even though he slips down the list every year, it will be quite some time before there are 50 members with more than 22,411 posts, the number needed to tie Mr. Anderson.

The number of Top 50 members with at least a decade of membership increased from 30% to 42%.

SandboxGeneral joins simsaladimbamba as a Top 50 member with less than 4 years of membership. Both of them are closer to 4 years than 3 years.

Years of Membership

click for the full-size graph

​

 

[Apple fanboy]

Thanks for putting these together again. Always interesting reading. The bit I can never understand is why members become inactive. Surly they don't go over to the dark side and buy a PC or android

 

[Doctor Q]

Thanks for putting these together again. Always interesting reading. The bit I can never understand is why members become inactive. Surly they don't go over to the dark side and buy a PC or android

Some people believe there are other social networks for Mac users (or people in general), and that MacRumors isn't the only place you can hang out online. I've never tested that theory, in case people who stray end up trapped and can't get back!

 

[Apple fanboy]

Some people believe there are other social networks for Mac users (or people in general), and that MacRumors isn't the only place you can hang out online. I've never tested that theory, in case people who stray end up trapped and can't get back!

That sounds plausible. Or maybe once they leave the Apple hardware, they can't get online at all because they are installing updates, running their antivirus scans or maybe just staring at a blue screen of death!

Keep up the good work. Looking forward to when I sneak in to your charts.
What's my position now? Top 1000?

 

[Scepticalscribe]

Thanks for putting these together again. Always interesting reading. The bit I can never understand is why members become inactive. Surly they don't go over to the dark side and buy a PC or android

No, I doubt that they do.

Rather, I would imagine that it is more a matter of changes in their lives: For example, obtaining or being appointed to a new job may compel a change; maybe a change in personal circumstances, or new relationships, perhaps the simple fact of having children - any or all of these reasons can offer an explanation for members deciding to become inactive, or, a lot less active.

In essence, I think it may boil down to the fact that people (members) either become too busy, or, other activities and relationships fill the space that membership of this online community used to provide.

 

[Doctor Q]

6-Month Projections

Chart #2: 6-Month Projected Top 50 Posters

Computed by Doctor Q in July 2014

Proj  Projection      Proj    Cur   Delta
Rank  Jan 4, 2015     Posts   Rank  Rank
----  --------------- ------  ----  -----
 1    GGJstudios      41,812    1      0
 2    GoCubsGo        35,298    2      0
 3    maflynn         34,778    7     +4
 4    Applejuiced     32,282    5     +1
 5    mad jew         32,195    3     -2
 6    Doctor Q        32,101    4     -2
 7    mkrishnan       29,621    6     -1
 8    Eidorian        28,968    8      0
 9    rdowns          26,882    9      0
10    robbieduncan    24,543   10      0
11    Abstract        24,145   11      0
12    simsaladimbamba 22,992   14     +2
13    jsw             22,820   12     -1
14    Mr. Anderson    22,411   13     -1
15    Blue Velvet     21,630   15      0
16    Hellhammer      21,568   16      0
17    alphaod         21,222   17      0
18    Dagless         20,152   18      0
19    Jaffa Cake      19,890   20     +1
20    bartelby        19,787   19     -1
21    iGary           19,583   21      0
22    miles01110      19,264   22      0
23    PlaceofDis      19,233   23      0
24    iBlue           19,172   24      0
25    edesignuk       19,104   25      0

Proj  Projection      Proj    Cur   Delta
Rank  Jul 4, 2014     Posts   Rank  Rank
----  --------------- ------  ----  -----
26    MacNut          18,777   27     +1
27    ~Shard~         18,359   26     -1
28    MacRumorUser    17,834   35     +7
29    MacDawg         17,696   28     -1
30    Peace           17,671   31     +1
31    balamw          17,470   32     +1
32    DoFoT9          17,432   29     -3
33    dukebound85     17,347   30     -3
34    -aggie-         16,981   33     -1
35    Intell          16,797   41     +6
36    Nermal          16,697   36      0
37    wdlove          16,571   34     -3
38    SandboxGeneral  16,546   49    +11
39    yellow          15,913   37     -2
40    Weaselboy       15,721   ---   ---
41    WildCowboy      15,675   39     -2
42    sushi           15,630   38     -4
43    devilot         15,532   40     -3
44    twoodcc         15,132   42     -2
45    IJ Reilly       15,057   43     -2
46    Surely          15,045   44     -2
47    KnightWRX       15,043   45     -2
48    jav6454         14,947   48      0
49    r.j.s           14,892   46     -3
50    dejo            14,828   50      0

Columns:

1. Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
   
2. Projection Jan 4, 2015 = members with the 50 highest projected post counts based on current post count and rate for the last 6 months.
   
3. Proj Posts = projected # of posts by that member.
   
4. Cur Rank = current rank, as of July 2014 (see Chart #1 above), or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
   
5. Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank over the next 6 months.

Observations

1. Projected to join the Top 50: Weaselboy
   
   
2. Projected to drop off the Top 50: Sun Baked
   
   
3. According to these projections, six months from now maflynn and Applejuiced will eclipse mad jew, Doctor Q, and mkrishnan, moving maflynn up from #7 to #3, with Applejuiced right behind at #4. Even though mad jew and mkrishnan have been inactive, this is still quite an accomplishment among such high post counts.
   
   
4. maflynn's lifetime average post rate is 15.6 posts per day, but it's been 29.1 posts/day over the last 6 months. In contrast, GGJstudios's lifetime average rate is 18.3, but only 4.4 over the last 6 months.
   
   
5. simsaladimbamba will overtake jsw and Mr. Anderson.
   
   
6. Surely and KnightWRX are inactive and will likely drop out of the Top 50 in a year or so. it's hard to tell who will exit first since they are separated by only 2 posts (Surely with 15,045 and KnightWRX with 15,043), and it's possible for an inactive member to lose a few posts every year due to forum archiving or thread deletion.
   
   
7. The invisible barrier held again, as no members moved between the Top 25 and the Next 25.

 

[simsaladimbamba]

Thanks for putting these together again. Always interesting reading. The bit I can never understand is why members become inactive. Surly they don't go over to the dark side and buy a PC or android

While I am surely not an inactive member, though having less than 1.000 posts in the last six months is quite an honour for me, since I had six months with 5.000 or so posts if I remember correctly, this site becomes a bit repetitive if you focus your activity on a narrow field like I do, which is answering questions the most obnoxious way I can.
The questions repeat and repeat and repeat and it gets boring.
I try to take part in the PRSI forum, but that is quite too US centric for me to have knowledge about.

Anyway, what I wanted to say, boredom could lead to leaving.

And thanks again Doctor Q for having that Excel macro do alllllllll youuuuuuur work and let us see it.
I actually was delighted to see me having posted less than 1.000 posts in this year. Luckily I cannot combine accounts anymore, otherwise Mister GGJstudios would be in trouble, though probably not.

Yep, have to go.

 

[Intell]

Kinda surprised I made the top 50. Didn't even think I had that many posts. Still rather neat to see. Thank you Doctor Q for making the graphs and lists.

 

[maflynn]

Nice work Q, that I'm sure takes a lot of effort to pull the numbers together.

 

[Apple fanboy]

No, I doubt that they do.

Rather, I would imagine that it is more a matter of changes in their lives: For example, obtaining or being appointed to a new job may compel a change; maybe a change in personal circumstances, or new relationships, perhaps the simple fact of having children - any or all of these reasons can offer an explanation for members deciding to become inactive, or, a lot less active.

In essence, I think it may boil down to the fact that people (members) either become too busy, or, other activities and relationships fill the space that membership of this online community used to provide.

Of course all joking aside, there is the simple fact that some members might no longer be with us. Sad but true. Death and taxes.

 

[simsaladimbamba]

Kinda surprised I made the top 50. Didn't even think I had that many posts. Still rather neat to see. Thank you Doctor Q for making the graphs and lists.

I am surprised it took you so long, I see your posts crop up everywhere.

 

[Intell]

I am surprised it took you so long, I see your posts crop up everywhere.

I've been winding down as of late. It's seems that I was number 51 in January. Maybe I should start looking at the iOS sections again. Applejuiced can always use another person helping around.

 

[maflynn]

I've been winding down as of late. It's seems that I was number 51 in January. Maybe I should start looking at the iOS sections again. Applejuiced can always use another person helping around.

It's funny but for me, I found myself winding down on the iPhone forum, but then increasing on the MBP forum, then that slows down, and I jump in on the alternatives forum, then that slows down for me, and boom, I'm busy in the digital photography forum. I'm always finding different areas and topics to engage in here

Plus its slow at work in the morning where I do the majority of my posting.

 

[Shrink]

Thanks, Q!

A lot of work on your part...and it is much appreciated.

 

[Apple fanboy]

It's funny but for me, I found myself winding down on the iPhone forum, but then increasing on the MBP forum, then that slows down, and I jump in on the alternatives forum, then that slows down for me, and boom, I'm busy in the digital photography forum. I'm always finding different areas and topics to engage in here

Plus its slow at work in the morning where I do the majority of my posting.

You post whilst at work? No wonder I can't get into that top 50

 

[simsaladimbamba]

You post whilst at work? No wonder I can't get into that top 50

And that red Bostonian also has to take care of post reports and what not. I guess he works in politics to have that much free time.

 

[maflynn]

You post whilst at work? No wonder I can't get into that top 50

I start work at 8:00am, I do most of posting before 8, though I keep a browser open and poke in from time to time. I maintain servers and so when something bad happens, I'm busy with things, but then during the day with my normal maintenance, I have time

And that red Bostonian also has to take care of post reports and what not. I guess he works in politics to have that much free time.

Not really - just in job that requires a lot of weekends and nights, so my days can be a bit slow from time to time

 

[Apple fanboy]

And that red Bostonian also has to take care of post reports and what not. I guess he works in politics to have that much free time.

Or he's in IT. They have a lot of free time don't they...

 

[Shrink]

I start work at 8:00am, I do most of posting before 8, though I keep a browser open and poke in from time to time. I maintain servers and so when something bad happens, I'm busy with things, but then during the day with my normal maintenance, I have time


Not really - just in job that requires a lot of weekends and nights, so my days can be a bit slow from time to time

And we New Englanders, being a superior lot, can just multi-task like crazy. Working, taking care of Moderation duties, and putting up spectacularly interesting posts are nothing for maflynn!



And I, for example, am able to do a load of laundry and pull an espresso simultaneously!

 

[maflynn]

And we New Englanders, being a superior lot, can just multi-task like crazy. Working, taking care of Moderation duties, and putting up spectacularly interesting posts are nothing for maflynn!

Thanks to all that coffee I drink

 

[ucfgrad93]

Thanks, Q!

A lot of work on your part...and it is much appreciated.

Agreed. I have to step it up a bit I'd I'm going to make that list.

 

[SandboxGeneral]

Good job Q, thanks for the hard work spreadsheeting! When I first joined this forum, 4 years ago, I never thought I'd ever be a contender for these lists. I didn't think there would be enough stuff for me to participate in, but given enough time, it wasn't hard at all. MacRumors has tons of different things to chat about on.

Now, as for Mike's count this time... This from six months ago....

I think I'l get a dog, call him life, so I'll have a life

I was on a tear this past 6 months, I don't plan on keeping up that pace for 2014.

Great job Q - I love reading about these stats.

 

[chown33]

Agreed. I have to step it up a bit I'd I'm going to make that list.

Personally, I prefer underachievement. My avatar sums it up nicely.

 

[cambookpro]

This makes for a really interesting read, thank you for putting it together.

On reflection, I think it's probably a good thing I'm nowhere near the top 50