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Old Feb 22, 2013, 09:04 AM   #1
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'Post-PC Era' Predicted By Steve Jobs Taking Hold as Samsung Tops Apple in Connected Device Market




The reality of the "post-PC era" predicted by Steve Jobs at the launch of the iPad 2 in 2011 can clearly be seen in a single graphic created by market intelligence company IDC in a report on what the firm refers to as the Smart Connected Device Market.

(Legend omits smartphones shown in yellow)
The chart shows the market share decline of both desktop PCs (from 23% in 2010 to just 12% in 2012) and laptops (from 29% to 17%), while tablets grew from 3% to 11% and smartphones from 45% to 60%. Overall, PCs have seen their share of the total smart connected device market fall from roughly 50% to just 30% in only two years.

The figures do not, of course, necessarily indicate device preference, as some may choose a cheaper device for financial reasons, especially in developing markets.

Across the four markets, Apple increased its market share from 16.3% in 2011 to 18.2% in 2012, but dropped from first to second place as it was outpaced by Samsung, whose market share grew from 12.3% to 20.8%.


Article Link: 'Post-PC Era' Predicted By Steve Jobs Taking Hold as Samsung Tops Apple in Connected Device Market
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 09:05 AM   #2
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 09:07 AM   #3
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Here we go again.....................I'm making popcorn.
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 09:10 AM   #4
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Here we go again.....................I'm making popcorn.
What flavour? I've just opened butter flavoured!

Sitting back and ready to enjoy the entertainment of the forthcoming posts...
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 09:11 AM   #5
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I still hate the idea of "post PC". None of these portable devices replaces a laptop or a desktop computer. Its simply Post PC because Apple said so, and people like to do what they are told.
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 09:14 AM   #6
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Originally Posted by bbplayer5 View Post
I still hate the idea of "post PC". None of these portable devices replaces a laptop or a desktop computer. Its simply Post PC because Apple said so, and people like to do what they are told.
When you start seeing tat most people you knew carrying laptops in the past are now carrying Tablets instead, then you know it's a "Post-PC Era".
There are many situations in which an iPad can do most of your required tasks without the need for a laptop or desktop.

In my case, since I got my iPad 1, my MBP has stayed home.
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 09:17 AM   #7
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 09:17 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by bbplayer5 View Post
I still hate the idea of "post PC". None of these portable devices replaces a laptop or a desktop computer. Its simply Post PC because Apple said so, and people like to do what they are told.
Apple never said the PC would be replaced, just that the greater part of PC stuff can and will be done on smartphones and tablets, thereby making PCs less relevant.
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 09:23 AM   #9
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I still hate the idea of "post PC". None of these portable devices replaces a laptop or a desktop computer. Its simply Post PC because Apple said so, and people like to do what they are told.
No, it's people who have voted with their wallets. While (currently) these devices can't do everything a laptop or desktop can do, most people don't need a laptop or desktop. A smartphone or tablet is the most appropriate tool.

There will always be a need for powerful computing devices, just not by the common man.
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 09:29 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by bbplayer5 View Post
I still hate the idea of "post PC". None of these portable devices replaces a laptop or a desktop computer. Its simply Post PC because Apple said so, and people like to do what they are told.
Totally agree with you.
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 09:30 AM   #11
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Originally Posted by bbplayer5 View Post
I still hate the idea of "post PC". None of these portable devices replaces a laptop or a desktop computer. Its simply Post PC because Apple said so, and people like to do what they are told.
Actually, for quite a lot of people they do replace a laptop. Maybe not for you, bit you are not the same as everyone else. This goes for the rest of the folks that agreed with you or said the same thing.

Why is it so hard to believe that someone could have all their needs met by a tablet, or even a phone.
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 09:32 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by bbplayer5 View Post
I still hate the idea of "post PC". None of these portable devices replaces a laptop or a desktop computer. Its simply Post PC because Apple said so, and people like to do what they are told.
I think it is a fantastic notion. Not everyone needs a full on PC. They are just doing email, very light browsing etc. if an iPad or similar fits their needs then why not have it in the market.

And no one, not even Jobs or Cook, are saying that the personal computer is dead and gone. Just that it isn't the end all and be all of folks computer use. It is moving from THE thing to just another piece in the puzzle.

That said I disagree that this statistic proves or disproves this notion. I would say that Sony's recent announcement of Airplay like functionality is closer to showing that the tech world is indeed embracing this notion of the post PC interconnected world than market share on phones.
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 09:48 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bbplayer5 View Post
I still hate the idea of "post PC". None of these portable devices replaces a laptop or a desktop computer. Its simply Post PC because Apple said so, and people like to do what they are told.
Remember, before tablet or a smartphone people used to buy desktop PC or a laptop just to get on the internet. I would say must people. Now why would they buy desktop or a laptop to check/send emails or brows the internet when they can do that on tablet/smart phone? You may not like it but that's the true. I only have my iMac because i do video editing (final cut pro x, Aftereffects CS6 and some photo editing programs. Otherwise, i would just stick with tablets.
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 09:58 AM   #14
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Originally Posted by bbplayer5 View Post
I still hate the idea of "post PC". None of these portable devices replaces a laptop or a desktop computer. Its simply Post PC because Apple said so, and people like to do what they are told.
There is none, all these numbers say is that there are no more feature phones - just about everything is a smartphone. There has not been a 20% world sales decline on PCs in the past year.

This is just wanting to see something in the Data
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 11:52 AM   #15
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I still hate the idea of "post PC". None of these portable devices replaces a laptop or a desktop computer. Its simply Post PC because Apple said so, and people like to do what they are told.
i disagree. i remember times when at meetings people had notepads and pens or were searching for a powerplug for their laptops. now i see people with ipads and smartphones at the meetings.

we are living in the post pc era. no need to take it personally.
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 12:32 PM   #16
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Shipments vs. sales? Returns? Ah, never mind

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Originally Posted by bbplayer5 View Post
I still hate the idea of "post PC". None of these portable devices replaces a laptop or a desktop computer. Its simply Post PC because Apple said so, and people like to do what they are told.
Actually, the data has spoken.

In iPad doesn't replace my MacBook--my work "truck"--but it DOES replace many people's Macs/PCs. In two ways:

1. Some people--enough to matter in the market--BUY an iPad instead of a PC. Doesn't necessarily mean they throw out the old PC, or that they never buy one again. It means they skip buying their next PC, let the old one make do in the corner for a lot longer, and buy the iPad instead.

2. People USE an iPad instead of a PC.

Off the top of my head, I can think of six people I know who replaced a PC or Mac with an iPad for daily use. They now rarely if ever touch their desktop/laptop. Does this mean they are doing less with computing than they used to? No, in fact all six of them are doing far MORE with the iPad than they ever did with a PC. Ease of use. We tech-heads forget HOW much it matters to so many people.

Example: a person I know who used a computer hours a day for communication, but was terrified of it and stuck with just the things she knew. She didn't know how to find or move files, perform updates, or even format text on a simple document! She didn't care enough to learn, and so the whole thing annoyed her. She got Windows malware about once a year.

Then someone gave her an iPad (not me!) and she didn't want it. Why use something new and even more unknown to do the same things she sort of had a handle on with the PC? So she decided to sell it.

Some months later, I was talking to her on the phone and realized she was doing her taxes herself, online--something she never would have attempted in the past. Turns out she wasn't on the PC--she was on the iPad doing it. She has more apps on that thing than she used in her entire pre-iPad life. She now does digital art and photo manipulation and sells her work as a side-income. She barely knew digital art existed on PC. Her iPad as become her TV. She bought a keyboard for it and now she doesn't miss even the typing on the PC. (She also got a cheap Android phone and hates it--too much troubleshooting. A switch to iPhone is planned.)

The other people I know could tell similar stories. No, none of them were hard-core tech-heads like me, comfortable tinkering and troubleshooting. They're not the people that frequent tech forums. But they are the majority!

(I even know one person who uses an iPod Touch to replace a PC. It sees a lot of use every day, for gaming, email, web, social media, video--and pocket convenience plus ease of use are so appreciated that the old PC almost never gets used.)


Quote:
Originally Posted by Asia8 View Post
Just because the PC % share vs phones and ipads is shrinking, it doesn't mean PC's are dying out. It could equally mean that people are buying 8 phones in the time it takes them to replace a PC. Or less people are buying PC's because they're buying components and building them themselves.

I find the statistics here to be useless. All it really indicates is that phone and pad sales are growing. Just because PC sales are not growing as fast does not indicate any great amount fewer are being sold.
You're right that stats have to be looked at carefully and critically. We don't even KNOW shipments (much less sales)--people are only estimating.

But if even if iPads are slowing PC growth (rather than actually shrinking the PC market already) that's still a shift. And even if iPads are only PART of that slowing growth, that's still a shift. Unless you think they are not a significant part of it--but they clearly are.

As for usable lifetime, I don't know anyone with an iPad (even an iPad 1) who has had it stop working. I've known a LOT of Windows PCs that died or were scrapped in less time than the iPad has been out. And people building their own PCs or home-repairing them are a tiny niche, which only seems bigger when you're on a tech forum. The trend toward small, light, convenient PCs (Air and clones) isn't going to boost that practice either.

I do think people are keeping PCs longer... but in many cases, they're doing it because they don't NEED it enough to bother replacing it! Not because it's working well for them. The iPad came in and filled the need enough of the time (doesn't have to be 100%) that the old, limping PC can make do as is.

That too is only a fraction of people--but it's a big enough (and fast growing) fraction that it's a real trend, affecting how people BUY and USE PCs.

You could say PC's aren't dead yet, or that they'll never fully die. But the trend is in motion and is not going to reverse. Use whatever term you like instead of Post-PC, but things are not going back to the way they were. PCs will be rare for personal use, and then nearly unheard of. In 3 years? 10? I don't know. But it's inevitable. PCs (including Macs) will be the "trucks" just as Jobs predicted. They'll be used for certain kinds of work and certain hard-core hobbyists, and therefore, like trucks, they'll hardly be unheard of. But for personal use, they will be. But even those "trucks" will be Post-PC eventually: they'll become a lot more like the iPad. Some of those PCs by Lenovo and others, where you use them flat on a desk sometimes, are awkward and ahead of their time, but some version of that is where Apple and everyone will eventually be headed, even for the "trucks." Years? Probably--Apple won't rush in like some and do it badly. But in time. Macs will be more iPad-like than they are now, while still having the pro power iPads lack. PCs too.

Almost every kind of PC you see people with today will look as outdated as the non-flat displays in an older movie. Yes, even laptops: they're the first candidate to replace with an iPad for what most people do.

Last edited by nagromme; Feb 22, 2013 at 12:47 PM.
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 01:28 PM   #17
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I still hate the idea of "post PC". None of these portable devices replaces a laptop or a desktop computer. Its simply Post PC because Apple said so, and people like to do what they are told.
This is where so many people miss the mark. Not everyone runs Photoshop or a cad program on their computer. Most/Many/Majority? I would guess well over 80% of home "PC" users do very little "work" or creating, but they do consume content, browse the web, email etc... All of which can be as easy on a tablet or smartphone. Screen size is personal choice, physical vs virtual keyboard is all choice. Bottom line these devices EASILY replace a desktop or laptop for ALL of what they use their computer for. The difference is these devices are cheaper, portable, long lasting batteries, and for the most part many, many times more user friendly than a PC.

Just because forums are full of tech geeks that own one of everything doesn't meant the other 98% of the consumer base cares what we think or how we use devices. Mainstream consumers can, and have already made the switch by the tens of millions. It's a fact that it's happening, not a theory.
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Old Feb 23, 2013, 10:15 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by bbplayer5 View Post
I still hate the idea of "post PC". None of these portable devices replaces a laptop or a desktop computer. Its simply Post PC because Apple said so, and people like to do what they are told.

Yeah, tell that to all the Android owners. For consumers, the tablet DOES do the things laptops were bought to do -- sometimes in a more convenient way. With a tablet (not specifically an iPad either):

• you can receive, type and send email
• play games
• type out full documents complete with graphics and formatting on a word processor
• create and deliver presentations
• create and manage spreadsheets
• surf the internet (did I miss that)
• design light stuff
• put together light videos
• manage photo albums
• retouch photos


Additionally you can:

• receive messages and email when the device is in sleep mode
• take pictures and video
• get GPS coordinates
• make phone calls
• easily check lists on-site (like, whilst standing up and roaming about in a classroom)
• read online news on your favourite chair or wank off to porn on the toilet
• sketch and create art with a stylus or pen

So tell me... what DOESN'T a tablet do that a laptop does? I'm sure you have a longer list?

----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Renzatic View Post
Yup. I believe the cloud is going to be leveraged more heavily in the near future, but we're always going to have an HDD to fall back on.

I just don't see the cloud replacing local storage completely until both the ISPs and services can guarantee 99.9% uptime with smooth, fast, and consistent connections throughout the day from anywhere in the country/world.

...which probably won't be happening anytime soon.

How much you bet Apple's next Airport Extreme is going to allow you to offload all your iOS apps and data onto the base station?

You heard it first from me folks!!

Now I better patent that before Apple does...
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 09:15 AM   #19
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of course it's only gonna decline after that.
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 09:19 AM   #20
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I'd expect to see a decline in desktops getting steeper in the next years, due to the power of tablets now able to replace almost all desktop function for most of the market.

Desktops will be tiny-niche by the end of the decade. True professional users.
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 09:15 AM   #21
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What flavour? I've just opened butter flavoured!

Sitting back and ready to enjoy the entertainment of the forthcoming posts...
It's already starting.
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 09:16 AM   #22
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He also predicted that iPad mini would never be a success...
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 09:17 AM   #23
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It's already starting.
LOL.... I would prepare more than just popcorn... how about an early beer with fried calamari or chicken wings???

Too bad I gotta get some work done, so I won't be able to hang around. Enjoy!
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 09:11 AM   #24
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Old Feb 22, 2013, 09:32 AM   #25
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Too busy customizing home screens?
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