Lack of Hardware Updates Leading to Lighter-Than-Expected Quarterly Mac Sales

[MacRumors]

Previously-released data from NPD on U.S. Mac sales for January and February have demonstrated relatively anemic year-over-year growth, with January sales tracking only 1% above the previous January's performance and February sales coming in 4% higher. Still, analysts have suggested that ongoing growth in international markets could compensate for stagnation in the U.S. market as consumers continue to wait for product updates. Consequently, analysts have generally been holding firm on their predictions of 15-20% Mac unit growth on a worldwide year-over-year basis for the full quarter.

Some analysts had also held out hope that Apple could sneak in at least one update to its Mac lineup before the end of the quarter to provide a spark for Mac sales, but with the first group of Intel's Ivy Bridge processors not launching until the end of the month, Apple was unable to update its main Mac models within the first three months of the year.




Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty is out with a new research note today incorporating NPD's data on U.S. Mac sales for March, and as might be expected given the lack of hardware updates, Apple continues to fall short of analyst expectations, with Mac shipments down 4% year-over-year for the first calendar quarter.

Huberty continues to believe that international growth will offset at least some of the flat performance in U.S. sales for the quarter, although she appears somewhat pessimistic that it will be able to reach her 15% growth target on a global basis. Nevertheless, Huberty seems optimistic that booming iPhone and iPad sales will make up for any shortfall on the Mac side due to the balance of profits among the segments.

Although the US retail market improved in March, Apple shipment growth decelerated as the company faced much tougher Y/Y comparisons due to a notebook refresh this time last year. US retail data suggest Apple shipments fell 4% Y/Y in C1Q12 compared to our estimate of 15% global Mac unit growth. We expect faster international growth to offset some of the deceleration in the US. In fact, the divergence between international and US growth has accelerated from about four points in prior quarters to 15 points in C4Q11. More importantly, we expect demand upside from iPhone and iPad (83% of gross profit) to more than offset any Mac downside (9% of gross profit).

On a broader basis, the PC market is seeing even more substantial declines in sales, with U.S. PC sales tracking for declines of 10-15% year-over-year for the quarter. That performance is, however, better than Huberty had been modeling for, and major PC manufacturers such as HP and Dell could see some upside if their final results fall in line with data released so far.

Article Link: Lack of Hardware Updates Leading to Lighter-Than-Expected Quarterly Mac Sales

[kevinkt]

Well then update sheez!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Torrijos]

Duh! We're all waiting!

[kevinkt]

Originally Posted by Torrijos

Duh! We're all waiting!

I mean Apple!!

[charlieegan3]

or maybe increase in tablets (iPad)?

[ECUpirate44]

It's all Intel's fault!

[charlieegan3]

Originally Posted by ECUpirate44

It's all Intel's fault!

but do we really want to go AMD just yet?

[TripleCore]

Really hoping for new Mac Pros ...soon.

[charlieegan3]

Originally Posted by TripleCore

Really hoping for new Mac Pros ...soon.

sadly I don't they will be the next "new" mac to release

[ECUpirate44]

Originally Posted by charlieegan3

but do we really want to go AMD just yet?

Nope. I'd rather wait for intel than switch. Intel's roadmap looks promising especially for laptops, lots of power and low energy consumption are good enough reasons to deal with a bit of a delay.

[charlieegan3]

Originally Posted by ECUpirate44

Nope. I'd rather wait for intel than switch. Intel's roadmap looks promising especially for laptops, lots of power and low energy consumption are good enough reasons to deal with a bit of a delay.

totally agree, AMD need to do something on the CPU front soon to survive.

[archipellago]

Maybe Apple just ran out of gullible fools...?

[macmastersam]

dammit intel release your ivy bridge units already! lol.

[Macopotamus]

I am not surprised by this but I think there are several causes. Part of this is the iPad cannibalizing Mac sales (why update your Mac when the new iPad does so much, browses the web, plays games, etc, perfectly fine?) and part of it is the lack of exciting hardware updates. Every Mac geek I know, myself included, is anxiously awaiting MacBook Air and major MacBook Pro updates. I'll be the first to upgrade when a retina Mac comes along, or when a MacBook Air with 8GB RAM is offered, and I know many other people feel the same way.

The iPad also allows for longer hardware cycles for Macs. Instead of updating a Mac every year, we can skip a year or two and update the iPad instead to cover the casual tasks and offload mundane tasks to iOS hardware. This gives us all the luxury of waiting for big purchases until there's something we really want, like a slimmer MacBook Pro or a MacBook Air with retina and 8GB RAM and a waffle iron, or the Mac Pro, whatever floats your boat.

[carmenodie]

It is never enough for the greedy folks on wall street. Always wanting more and more so we consumers have to spend more and more.
Apple is going to go down in flames in a few years. All them brick and mortar stores are just to increase sales of a few products that continually need to wow. What happens when wow stops? Really, they better brace for a crash in a few years.

[meatballs]

This is the post-PC era duh!

[globalhemp]

We have been holding off on making any new Mac purchases until new ones are released. Already waiting to purchase 1 new iMac and 1 new mini. Both are due for a refresh.

[oldMac]

This quarter will be light on Mac sales.
But assuming they get products out the door, the next quarter will be really huge.

[Viking23]

It would help if Apple would let us know what is to be expected and when. Not knowing has obviously affected sales.

[Ryth]

I think the majority of us are waiting for the MBPro redesign, new IvyBridge chips and possible Retina display iMacs/MBPros.

Sales will soar in the next quarter when they are released. Kinda like the quarter before the iPhone 4S hit...everyone was waiting waiting waiting...there is enough information out there that people know new products are coming.

[iBug2]

Holding off for new macbook pro and mac pro. Hoping to get them both this year.

[cragmr]

Smart people are waiting on Ivy Bridge.

[keysofanxiety]

Come on Apple, I'm still waiting for my PowerBook G5! :rage: ;D

[brentsg]

Originally Posted by Viking23

It would help if Apple would let us know what is to be expected and when. Not knowing has obviously affected sales.

Knowing would also affect sales.

[kevinkt]

Originally Posted by archipellago

Maybe Apple just ran out of gullible fools...?

Or!!!!!!!!..... Maybe you are a bitter person?????? Could that be it?? Idk