Samsung Galaxy S III Estimated to Top iPhone 4S in 3Q 2012 Worldwide Shipments

[iSayuSay]

Originally Posted by photographypro

So what phone do you have? The iPhone may be made in China, but the build quality and software quality are better than Android phones. Everyone I know that has left iPhone for Android has come back to the iPhone.

Apple not a premium brand? It's the best constructed cell phone. And tell me what other cell phone people line up for overnight to purchase?

Go troll somewhere else!

So iPhone 5 is the best constructed phone ever so many of them scuffed out of the box? Yea right.

Best constructed phone should go to Lumia 920, design is no less impressive than iPhone and best build quality so far, and it costs $450 off contract instead of $649 at the least.

5+ years of owning Apple products and I've stopped associating Apple with something like BMW a long time ago. Used to think that way too ... when I was a n00b.

[Sensation]

Originally Posted by dmelgar

It is sad that a company can steal, copy, practically counterfeit another's supposedly patented, protected ideas.

That the court system is so slow to respond and consumers have such poor memory that after a few years delay folks think the way Apple did it is the only way it could have been done.

Sad that the court systems are ineffective at stopping such a mimicking company.

Sad that such an unethical company is so effective at manipulating public opinion to make itself look like the victim while stealing every idea Apple has.

Sad that folks don't notice the massive advertising campaign waged and its effectiveness at changing public opinion. Many Apple "news" articles bracketed with Galaxy S3 ads.

Sad that particularly folks in the US are so encouraging of a company who's claim to fame is dirty cheap development and manufacturing. Lets all root for the overseas low wage company that copies Apple's designs. That will somehow be good for everyone long term. Apple iPhone 5 sales alone were expected to materially affect US GDP. The US technology leadership will wane. NASDAQ was being held up by Apple.

I think all the anti-Apple talk is being effective and will curtail demand for Apple products. Can't wait for Samsung to develop their own operating system for phones, tablets and even PCs. Can't wait to buy my silver painted plastic MacBooksung.

I agree Apple stealing many features such as the notification system from Android is sickening

[frayne182]

Originally Posted by iSayuSay

So iPhone 5 is the best constructed phone ever so many of them scuffed out of the box? Yea right.

Best constructed phone should go to Lumia 920, design is no less impressive than iPhone and best build quality so far, and it costs $450 off contract instead of $649 at the least.

5+ years of owning Apple products and I've stopped associating Apple with something like BMW a long time ago. Used to think that way too ... when I was a n00b.

lol good point.


I never understood why its compared to as a BMW or anything luxury.

[BaldiMac]

Originally Posted by lilo777

The distinction between Apple (retailer) and Samsung (manufacturer) still stands. Samsung could not disclose their sales even if they wanted to.

Again, this is incorrect. Samsung is just as capable of monitoring their channel inventory as Apple. They simply choose not to report it.

[upnorth85]

I think in the quarter 4, S3 and note 2 together will have higher sales thane iPhone 5/4S for the following reasons:
1. Samsung sells their phones to all carriers in all countries. Apple does not sell the iPhone 5 the same way. E.g., if you are one of the 30 million T-mobile customer you can not buy an iPhone 5.
2. Samsung prices it products to suit the GDP PPP in each country. So an S3 phone will be cheaper in some developing countries with reduced features.
3. Samsung has manufacturing in many more countries. Apple manufactures only in Brazil and China. Import duties are higher in many countries and this increases the imported cost of iPhones.
4. There are few Apps in Android system designed just US specific like passport or Siri etc.
5. Samsung resorts to heavy discounting to move their product. For example on 16 and 17th Samsung will be offering 0 down payment for S3. Apple has fixed price at all wireless providers.
6. Apple continues to suffer from very low yield of iPhone 5 at Foxcon. Apple has put all its eggs in the Foxcon basket. It would be prudent to consider other countries for manufacturing as Samsung does.
7. Apple needs to hire some design for manufacturing experts so that production yields improve.

[samcraig]

Originally Posted by BaldiMac

Again, this is incorrect. Samsung is just as capable of monitoring their channel inventory as Apple. They simply choose not to report it.

Well to be fair - I would say that Apple has a leg up if only because a good bulk of their business is their own retail channel. Not saying that Samsung couldn't keep track of their sales. But the reliance on 3rd party reporting is greater.

If you've ever worked on a large project (and I'm sure you have) - the more people that have data you need = the greater chance one ore more parties will hold up the project while they get their crap together

[rdlink]

Originally Posted by swagi

So you never complained about that or tried to get a swap unit? I've personally yet to receive a "random black screen" (I figured I really touched the DisplayLock button by accident and basic Display Timeout is set to 15 seconds with FaceDetection on, but if you're in ba light conditions the front camera doesn't recognize your face).

A crashing message app - never had or heard of that. Maybe that carrier of yours messed around with the firmware too much?

Bingo! You just nailed it on the head as to one of the reasons why the iPhone is still the best smartphone on the market: Carriers are not allowed to "mess around with your firmware." Every user has a consistent experience, and Apple keeps the platform consistent. Carriers have no control over the iPhone, (which they hate, BTW) so they can't fragment the hell out of it. Fact of the matter is, Google's approach thus far on the Android platform, and the supposed "advantages" to the OS are precisely the reason why I don't like it. It allows the handset manufacturers and carriers to go back to the bad old days of the feature phone model, where they could conspire against the customer to their own benefit. And no, I'm not some naive child who thinks that Apple is an altruistic company who only looks out after me. I know they want to make money. But their model is much more friendly to my desires and needs.

One of my 6 Android devices was a relatively nice Samsung phone on TMO, running ICS. But once I started using it I realized that TMO and Yahoo had signed a back room deal that forced me to keep certain Yahoo apps on the phone that I could not uninstall. Sure, I could have rooted it (once a root came out for that particular phone). But I don't want to spend all of my life rooting phones to make them do what I want. I want to use my phone, not spend my nights hacking it.

[samcraig]

Originally Posted by upnorth85

Apple has fixed price at all wireless providers.

Not exactly accurate. Apple phones are sold/discounted all around the world.

And if a retailer sells a phone at a loss - it's still a phone sold (samsung gets paid). I'm not discounting whether or not Samsung might offer incentives. Just like I'm not discounting the fact that Apple has tight deals with carriers that force their customers (with exceptions) to wait until their contract is either over or a date is approved by Apple before allowing a new (non-iPhone) subsidized phone. This practice is not done by any Android or other platform based phone.

[the8thark]

Originally Posted by Nathan20

SHIPMENTS not sales...

And total profits > shipments.

[BaldiMac]

Originally Posted by upnorth85

I think in the quarter 4, S3 and note 2 together will have higher sales thane iPhone 5/4S for the following reasons:
1. Samsung sells their phones to all carriers in all countries. Apple does not sell the iPhone 5 the same way. E.g., if you are one of the 30 million T-mobile customer you can not buy an iPhone 5.
2. Samsung prices it products to suit the GDP PPP in each country. So an S3 phone will be cheaper in some developing countries with reduced features.
3. Samsung has manufacturing in many more countries. Apple manufactures only in Brazil and China. Import duties are higher in many countries and this increases the imported cost of iPhones.
4. There are few Apps in Android system designed just US specific like passport or Siri etc.
5. Samsung resorts to heavy discounting to move their product. For example on 16 and 17th Samsung will be offering 0 down payment for S3. Apple has fixed price at all wireless providers.
6. Apple continues to suffer from very low yield of iPhone 5 at Foxcon. Apple has put all its eggs in the Foxcon basket. It would be prudent to consider other countries for manufacturing as Samsung does.

One through five have been true for years, so no reason to think they would impact Q4 2012 any differently. Six might be a factor, but we don't know what the actual supply of the iPhone 5 will be. Most projections that I've seen have 40-50 million iPhones being sold during the December quarter

[tbrinkma]

Originally Posted by EmpireITtech

Do you think S3's are not selling? Seriously

Not sure where you got that from my post.

I answered your question about why shipments are made. You seem to have read that as an opinion about how many S3s have been sold.

Bravo.

[BaldiMac]

Originally Posted by samcraig

Well to be fair - I would say that Apple has a leg up if only because a good bulk of their business is their own retail channel. Not saying that Samsung couldn't keep track of their sales. But the reliance on 3rd party reporting is greater.

If you've ever worked on a large project (and I'm sure you have) - the more people that have data you need = the greater chance one ore more parties will hold up the project while they get their crap together

That may be fair to add, but his statement was still incorrect. We aren't talking exact numbers here. Apple reports their channel inventory to the nearest 100,000. I'd bet Samsung's leadership is in the same ballpark for their flagship smartphone. I'm sure they don't ship their phones on a whim!

[alexgowers]

I tend to buy the most popular phone not to be popular but because support is just great, apps, accessories etc etc etc.

What i find amazing is that the iphone still wins out.

Old iphone vs new phone samsung phone.

Cheap Samsung phone vs expensive iphone.

I think they are both great phones and either is fine and i'm glad to see samsung again making their own design decisions both from software and hardware they no longer look like a copycat.

So why did i still get an iphone 5, well it still comes down to the whole package and ecosystem, samsung still don't quite get it and sony seem to be starting to but they would need to invest a lot more R&D to catch up to the value behind the phone.

I think it's like comparing silver with white gold, both are good but there is value in paying more.

[Vitrum]

Originally Posted by alexgowers

I tend to buy the most popular phone not to be popular but because support is just great, apps, accessories etc etc etc.

What i find amazing is that the iphone still wins out.

Old iphone vs new phone samsung phone.

Cheap Samsung phone vs expensive iphone.

I think they are both great phones and either is fine and i'm glad to see samsung again making their own design decisions both from software and hardware they no longer look like a copycat.

So why did i still get an iphone 5, well it still comes down to the whole package and ecosystem, samsung still don't quite get it and sony seem to be starting to but they would need to invest a lot more R&D to catch up to the value behind the phone.

I think it's like comparing silver with white gold, both are good but there is value in paying more.

Trust me the part of "theres a value in paying more" is not true in a lot of cases, most of the time you pay that extra for the brand

[brdeveloper]

Originally Posted by noverflow

So...
But if you add the iPhone 5 + the 4s, you get higher sales.

So the iPhone shipments are still higher.
Basically all this shows is that people stopped buying the 4s after the 5 was announced.

Not very interesting at all.

Well, actually would be more precise comparing

Galaxy SIII, Galaxy SII, Galaxy Note I, Galaxy Note II versus iPhone 3GS, iPhone4, iPhone4S, iPhone5.

That is, we would be comparing Samsung flagship smartphones to Apple smartphones currently being offered worldwide.

P.S. #1: Don't tell me the Note is in another category because it's not. I use my note as my main smartphone, it fits perfectly into my pocket and I see a lot of people having it as a phone.

P.S. #2: An unlocked 3GS costs the same as an unlocked Galaxy II Lite in Brazil, so it would probably fair to get rid of this model in the comparison.

P.S. #3: the stats shown in this posts are meaningless... is much more like comparing Apples and Kiwis.

[thekev]

Originally Posted by pubwvj

These Samsung shipment numbers mean very little. It is sales that matter. Vendors, including Samsung, have shipped large numbers of units before that then just sit on the shelves and end up in the eBay dump or waste dump. Apple's shipments on the other hand are actual units that are being sold. To get rid of this confusion they should talk about actual sales, not shipments. Otherwise these charts are deceptive.

A couple people have already mentioned the fallacy of your statement. Apple does maintain channel inventory. If sales are below expectations, they send out fewer new shipments. They're eventually sold either way. In Samsung's case they aren't just channel stuffing every quarter while turning healthy profits. It really shouldn't surprise you anyway. The 4S wasn't new at that time. The initial surge would have been over. It's not like the article suggested that this past quarter outpaced the 4S launch.

[samcraig]

Originally Posted by rdlink

One of my 6 Android devices was a relatively nice Samsung phone on TMO, running ICS. But once I started using it I realized that TMO and Yahoo had signed a back room deal that forced me to keep certain Yahoo apps on the phone that I could not uninstall. Sure, I could have rooted it (once a root came out for that particular phone). But I don't want to spend all of my life rooting phones to make them do what I want. I want to use my phone, not spend my nights hacking it.

So you use every stock app of Apple's?

No different in my opinion. An uninstallable app is an uninstallable app. You should be able to delete any app you don't want.

[pacalis]

Originally Posted by BaldiMac

Plus, just common sense that iPhone 4S inventory would be decreased in preparation for iPhone 5 launch. Historically, 90% of iPhone sales have been the latest model.

iPhone 4S inventories will be kept to the level of anticipated sales. As they drop the price on the 4S when the 5 comes out, the 4S sales may be as strong as the previous quarter.

90% of sales (certainly exaggerated) may still be iPhone 5. Because your looking at 1 year into a 3 year cycle of 4S sales, so it's not peak, but it's probably steady. Remember the 4 still sells.

So again, while it may seem like everyone on this board wants the latest and greatest (though you do see people saying they chose the 4S after the 5 launch), there is no evidence that there is a significant collapse in 4S sales after the 5.

Originally Posted by BaldiMac

Yep. That's my point. They were estimated to ship 18.0 million units. However, some of those were simply dedicated to filling the channel inventory, so they actually sold less than the 18.0 million that they shipped. Obviously, Samsung's sales channel is significantly larger than Apple's.

Samsung's channel inventory, as far as I understand it, are the phones that are shipped but not yet delivered to the re-seller. It is not unsold phones at the reseller (how I think you're using it).

As the 4S has been in production for a while their channel inventory will be at capacity, whereas Samsung's will have be ramping up (the reseller may be overramped, but this is not Samsung's channel). Thus, Samsung's proportion of sold to in channel will be higher.

It may well be that reseller's are overstocked on GS3s vs. iPhone 4Ss. But again, iphone holds additional stock because it is also a reseller. So in that quarter, in my view, evidence points to the Gs3 slightly outperforming the 4S.

----------

Originally Posted by brdeveloper

Well, actually would be more precise comparing

Galaxy SIII, Galaxy SII, Galaxy Note I, Galaxy Note II versus iPhone 3GS, iPhone4, iPhone4S, iPhone5.

That is, we would be comparing Samsung flagship smartphones to Apple smartphones currently being offered worldwide.

And this is certainly more meaningful. On flagships, you could look at used resale prices, unlocked premium 4Ss are around $240, GS3s around $310, and 5s around $500. And then there is always the issue of margins.

[inlovewithi]

Originally Posted by ActionJax

Using the (flawed) Apple-haters' logic, all these people flocking to the Samsung Galaxy S III are one or more of the following:

• Sheeple;
• Drones;
• Stupid people easily fooled by marketing;
• Kool-Aid drinkers.

I think the real difference is that people are flocking to the Samsung more because of it's specs rather than the logo. So I think that makes a big difference, though I'm sure many are still stupid people.

[Vitrum]

I think its clear who are the kool-aid drinkers around....

[Dionte]

Originally Posted by robvas

I know 3 or 4 people who have gotten the 4S in the last couple weeks. Why wouldn't you get the 5? they are scared of the $199 price but they don't realize you're paying that over the life of the contract, so it's really only about 7.50/month!

So do I, against my good advice.

[BaldiMac]

Originally Posted by pacalis

iPhone 4S inventories will be kept to the level of anticipated sales. As they drop the price on the 4S when the 5 comes out, the 4S sales may be as strong as the previous quarter.

90% of sales (certainly exaggerated) may still be iPhone 5. Because your looking at 1 year into a 3 year cycle of 4S sales, so it's not peak, but it's probably steady. Remember the 4 still sells.

So again, while it may seem like everyone on this board wants the latest and greatest (though you do see people saying they chose the 4S after the 5 launch), there is no evidence that there is a significant collapse in 4S sales after the 5.

I was not exaggerating the 90%. It was a number that was mentioned a year or so ago. I wouldn't be surprised if the percentage has come down. I do not think it's reasonable to think that Apple expects to sell the same number of iPhone 4S's this quarter as it did last quarter.

Samsung's channel inventory, as far as I understand it, are the phones that are shipped but not yet delivered to the re-seller. It is not unsold phones at the reseller (how I think you're using it).

I'm using it to mean units that are shipped, but not sold.

As the 4S has been in production for a while their channel inventory will be at capacity, whereas Samsung's will have be ramping up (the reseller may be overramped, but this is not Samsung's channel). Thus, Samsung's proportion of sold to in channel will be higher.

You should have made the exact opposite conclusion from those facts, unless you think Samsung is selling every phone it ships and Apple is increasing their channel inventory for the iPhone 4S.

Samsung is likely building up channel inventory, while Apple is decreasing channel inventory for the iPhone 4S. That means Samsung is selling less than it ships and Apple is selling more than it ships.

It may well be that reseller's are overstocked on GS3s vs. iPhone 4Ss. But again, iphone holds additional stock because it is also a reseller. So in that quarter, in my view, evidence points to the Gs3 slightly outperforming the 4S.

How much stock they have is irrelevant. It's the change in stock from the beginning of the quarter to the end of the quarter that matters. If they have 5 million in the channel in the beginning and 5 million at the end, than shipped equals sold.

[pacalis]

Originally Posted by BaldiMac

You should have made the exact opposite conclusion from those facts, unless you think Samsung is selling every phone it ships

That's my point. Samsung does sell every phone it ships. It sells all it's phones to re-sellers. The re-sellers may be sitting on too much stock, but that's not part of Samsung's inventory channel. It channel is just manufacture to reseller.

Apple is more confusing. It ships to re-sellers and itself. So even if both companies have a similar channel policy, Apple will be sitting on more longer, because many phones don't leave Apple's inventory until it gets to the consumer.

Originally Posted by BaldiMac

Apple is selling more than it ships.

You might be right, i just don't buy that demand has changed all that much in the 4S over last quarter. There is still 2 years left in this product and the price just dropped, so that should push demand up a bit in the short run.

I'm mainly just saying without knowing additional details on the numbers, you can't really flavor the shipping numbers because the exact opposite conclusion could be drawn (i.e. Samsung can't catch up to reseller demand and Apple could have overestimated 4S sales and have too much shipped and sitting in their stores). In sum, it's apples to apples unless there is clear evidence that it isn't.

[BaldiMac]

Originally Posted by pacalis

That's my point. Samsung does sell every phone it ships. It sells all it's phones to re-sellers. The re-sellers may be sitting on too much stock, but that's not part of Samsung's inventory channel.

That's a very odd definition of sold. What's the difference between shipped and sold? Do you think if Samsung ships to a Samsung warehouse that they list them as shipped?

Apple is more confusing. It ships to re-sellers and itself. So if both companies have a similar channel policy, Apple may be sitting more because many phones don't leave Apple's inventory until it gets to the consumer.

It's only confusing because of your definition of sold. Shipped is shipped from manufacturing to retailers (including Apple retail stores) or consumers. Sold is sold to consumers. No need to complicate it.

[kdarling]

Originally Posted by BaldiMac

Shipped is shipped from manufacturing to retailers (including Apple retail stores) or consumers. Sold is sold to consumers. No need to complicate it.

One complication in general when doing comparisons is that many companies do use the word "shipped" interchangeably with "sold".

If you mean Apple's definition, "sold" includes items paid for by a retailer and in the process of being shipped to them. See their SEC filing below. The moment an item is shipped to a retailer, it's counted as revenue. They do not count shipping to their own stores, though.

"(Apple) recognizes revenue when persuasive evidence of an arrangement exists, delivery has occurred, the sales price is fixed or determinable, and collection is probable. Product is considered delivered to the customer once it has been shipped and title and risk of loss have been transferred. For most of (Apple)’s product sales, these criteria are met at the time the product is shipped."

- Apple 10-K

Btw, "customer" means both consumers (end users) and retailers. We have to be careful not to confuse the c words.