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Old Nov 19, 2012, 01:21 PM   #51
basesloaded190
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IJ Reilly View Post
Exactly. A lot of the recent down action on Wall Street is tax trading. Capital gains taxes are expected to rise in 2013. Investors aren't going to be tax traders, though, and their best strategy is to ignore the static. If you keep to a long time horizon, it doesn't matter what happens over a period of weeks or even months.
This. I've been saying this for weeks. So much uncertainty of the future of taxes and the overall market there seems to be a major sell while the gettin is still good.
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Old Nov 19, 2012, 01:22 PM   #52
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Originally Posted by Avatar74 View Post
Presuming you had a sensible acquisition price, right.
Is $5 a sensible price for AAPL? Seriously, I am in the sell mode but only because of my ridiculous overweight in the one stock. I sold some in August and plan another sale some time next year, so what happens in between is not much of a concern to me. Maybe I've got the luxury of not having to watch the stock ticker every day (I ignore it for weeks on end, actually) but in reality if I'd had a stock ticker fixation I probably wouldn't be enjoying that luxury today. So I think if you bought for a fundamentally good reason in the first place and haven't bet more than you can afford to lose, then the advice remains the same: Don't stare at the ticker, it will make you crazy, and crazy people make decisions they later regret.
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Old Nov 19, 2012, 01:26 PM   #53
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My $0.02?
Let. It. Ride.
But I've always looked at stock as a long term investment. Stocks go up, stocks go down. From what I can tell, Apple seems much more poised to pay off than others.

Example (correct me if I'm wrong, selective memory is not out of the question): I can't recall Apple ever having as many refreshed products "available" for Holiday than at any point in it's history. Nearly the entire product line has been refreshed. Highly unusual. It was not at all uncommon that Apple would hold back major product announcements/refreshes in favor of (say) January's MWSF... Completely missing the largest retail season of the year - a product cycle philosophy I never understood. This appears at least one thing Tim looks to change. Which makes a lot of sense/cents.
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Old Nov 19, 2012, 01:26 PM   #54
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Originally Posted by Avatar74 View Post
Which is why I doubled my stake in a Vanguard S&P 500 index fund, rather than pouring it all into one bucket of risk with AAPL. If anyone here can beat the S&P year in and year out, they should be a fund manager for Berkshire Hathaway.
AAPL risk? Only if you play the short game. I've had a return of 7x on my most recent investment in AAPL. And that's playing the long game. I only invest in stocks of companies I believe in. Why put money in a fund where you're giving money to companies whose business practices you probably don't even like? And playing with funds just keeps in business the kind of analysts that try to manipulate the market.
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Old Nov 19, 2012, 01:28 PM   #55
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The market is bipolar and hormonal at best. Stock is a long-term endeavor.
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Old Nov 19, 2012, 01:33 PM   #56
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Price of AAPL has no bearing on reality. They make billions and there stock goes down 25%. Makes no sense. They are an extremely good value.
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Old Nov 19, 2012, 01:38 PM   #57
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Originally Posted by lazyrighteye View Post
I can't recall Apple ever having as many refreshed products "available" for Holiday than at any point in it's history. Nearly the entire product line has been refreshed. Highly unusual. It was not at all uncommon that Apple would hold back major product announcements/refreshes in favor of (say) January's MWSF...
It's called throwing the kitchen sink--before 2013 problems. We have some significant and frightening issues with this economy. And I don't expect many here to even begin to understand the basics of those underlying fundamentals. Remember, we have 2 options going forward; debasement of the currency or austerity.
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Old Nov 19, 2012, 01:42 PM   #58
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Originally Posted by 1080p View Post
I remember when I bought stock at $16 a share. Best decision I ever made. </DREAM>
I remember when I decided not to buy it at $85/share thinking it was overpriced. :-) Cant win them all! I am glad I own the AAPL that I do despite getting in significantly higher then that.
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Old Nov 19, 2012, 01:51 PM   #59
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Originally Posted by petsounds View Post
AAPL risk? Only if you play the short game. I've had a return of 7x on my most recent investment in AAPL. And that's playing the long game. I only invest in stocks of companies I believe in. Why put money in a fund where you're giving money to companies whose business practices you probably don't even like? And playing with funds just keeps in business the kind of analysts that try to manipulate the market.
There's a huge difference between a no-load index fund and a mutual fund or hedge fund.

I don't buy based on belief.... I buy based on facts. The most important fact is whether or not the company is currently priced below its intrinsic value (as determined by working capital and operating cash flow). Apple's future prospects are not grim by any stretch, but it is not a bargain with very low risk.

Many people flock to AAPL because, well, it's the largest brand they know and they haven't done much research elsewhere, so it's accessible and it appears unshakeable to the untrained eye... but I routinely find three or four securities every six months that have proportionately the same growth prospects but are grossly underpriced by the market. The fact that I find few of them doesn't bother me. All that matters is that I found them before everyone else caught on.

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Quote:
Originally Posted by IJ Reilly View Post
Is $5 a sensible price for AAPL? Seriously, I am in the sell mode but only because of my ridiculous overweight in the one stock. I sold some in August and plan another sale some time next year, so what happens in between is not much of a concern to me. Maybe I've got the luxury of not having to watch the stock ticker every day (I ignore it for weeks on end, actually) but in reality if I'd had a stock ticker fixation I probably wouldn't be enjoying that luxury today. So I think if you bought for a fundamentally good reason in the first place and haven't bet more than you can afford to lose, then the advice remains the same: Don't stare at the ticker, it will make you crazy, and crazy people make decisions they later regret.
Regardless of your fundamentally good reason, if you bought at a price closer to, say $600 a share, was it sensible when the intrinsic value of the company (accounting for future growth prospects) is not more than $500 per share? Is that more sensible than buying it at some point when it's under its intrinsic value? I'm pretty certain the second scenario has more cushion than the first far more often than not.
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Old Nov 19, 2012, 01:52 PM   #60
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Hahaha. Hilarious. No analyst knows what's going to happen. But I guess people are betting a lot of money on them. If it were me, hell, I'd do my own research. Not follow some analyst.
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Old Nov 19, 2012, 01:53 PM   #61
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Originally Posted by HobeSoundDarryl View Post
Well, if that's all it takes to add 31 dollars to the price, he should just call 4-5 more buddies to also post some "very positive comments" to run it right back to $700... or maybe 7-8 buddies could write some positive things to run it to $800.

Better yet, why not just deem the Apple faithful on this site as "analysts" and the stock price could run to the moon.
No need, once it starts moving like this the momentum will carry it more than anything anyone can say.
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Old Nov 19, 2012, 02:03 PM   #62
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oh god what a story.

you really think apple is surging because of comments from some little analysts, or because the overall market is up because of fiscal cliff deal speculation?
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Old Nov 19, 2012, 02:14 PM   #63
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There is no endless growth in economy.
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Old Nov 19, 2012, 02:18 PM   #64
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Originally Posted by CWallace View Post
No doubt somewhere one is noting a $30 single session rise in the stock price is a sign of Tim Cook's failure and another analyst somewhere is saying "Steve Jobs never would have let the stock rise $30 during a session".
Because of this, Apple is DOOMED.
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Old Nov 19, 2012, 02:25 PM   #65
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Originally Posted by shulerg View Post
Apple has truly rewarded the faithful who've hung onto the stock since the early 90s, when every sign and sage said sell.
I only got in with my meager 10 share purchase in July and was sickened to see me lose $1300+, so hoping to come right back to at least where I bought in at.
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Old Nov 19, 2012, 02:28 PM   #66
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Bought it right after the split at $44/ share. Best decision I've ever made.

I feel bad for any suckers who sold it on Friday hoping to sell short.
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Old Nov 19, 2012, 02:38 PM   #67
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They're crediting some guy in Topeka for the surge? hmmm, and here I thought it was my blog... http://www.myturnquips.com/p/gs-stocks.html.
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Old Nov 19, 2012, 02:39 PM   #68
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I must have missed the news today. Did Microsoft swoop in and "save" Apple with another $150 million cash infusion?

LOL.

Me: long AAPL since 2000.

Last edited by LagunaSol; Nov 19, 2012 at 04:04 PM.
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Old Nov 19, 2012, 03:53 PM   #69
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Originally Posted by samcraig View Post
Personally I don't think it's because of Analysts comments but a decent "correction" in the sell off of shares that occurred over the past couple of weeks.

There are analysts posting comments almost on a daily basis.
Yep. Agreed. It was somewhat overvalued, needed an adjustment. It'll rise again with Mini sales and Christmas.
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Old Nov 19, 2012, 04:09 PM   #70
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Yep. Agreed. It was somewhat overvalued, needed an adjustment. It'll rise again with Mini sales and Christmas.
The Bond market is not buying this rebound.
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Old Nov 19, 2012, 04:16 PM   #71
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Phew. I'm glad. I was really getting worried $500 billion market cap wasn't going to be enough to keep the doors open through 2013.
Not to mention the 120 billion in cash.
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Old Nov 19, 2012, 04:30 PM   #72
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Fiscal Cliff

I thought this bounce was from Fiscal Cliff news..
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Old Nov 19, 2012, 04:40 PM   #73
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Originally Posted by Avatar74 View Post
I've never met a day/swing trader who didn't wipe out his principal at some point.

Any number times zero is still zero. Compounding interest over the long term always beats trading. Impatience is the enemy.
My understanding is that day trading just can't work because the transaction costs of doing that many trades will wipe out your gains. Especially since the folks doing it can't put that much money in play to spread out the transaction costs.

However, if as a day trader you are mainly just competing against other day traders (and certainly not against someone like myself who buys and holds for years), then if you are better (and luckier) than your competition, you should be able to make money. Don't you think that should be possible?

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Quote:
Originally Posted by jlasoon View Post
It's called throwing the kitchen sink--before 2013 problems. We have some significant and frightening issues with this economy. And I don't expect many here to even begin to understand the basics of those underlying fundamentals. Remember, we have 2 options going forward; debasement of the currency or austerity.
I don't agree with you. But even in your scenario, in the case of currency debasement, I'd much rather have my money in stocks. Stocks are an inflation hedge.

If we go the austerity route, the economy will contract and Apple will sell less stuff. But I would be curious to find out what percentage of Apple's sales go to folks making, for example, over $200,000 a year. So maybe Apple will still continue to sell, like luxury goods that continued to sell just fine right through the latest recession.
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Old Nov 19, 2012, 04:41 PM   #74
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Originally Posted by Rocketman View Post
http://forums.macrumors.com/showthre...6#post16320706

http://forums.macrumors.com/showpost...&postcount=411

http://t.co/MTjw5cuK

This is being declared a "generational bottom" by several commentators on CNBC. The ones that are right 70% of the time. We'll see. They are only looking for a 2x-3x not a 40x like we saw before. Law of large numbers.

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Old Nov 19, 2012, 04:47 PM   #75
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It looks like AMD is up too.
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