AAPL Surging Following Extremely Positive Analyst Comments

[Technarchy]

Anyone remember when they did chimps vs 1st graders vs analysts for stock pics?

Guess who came in last...

[IJ Reilly]

Originally Posted by Avatar74

Regardless of your fundamentally good reason, if you bought at a price closer to, say $600 a share, was it sensible when the intrinsic value of the company (accounting for future growth prospects) is not more than $500 per share? Is that more sensible than buying it at some point when it's under its intrinsic value? I'm pretty certain the second scenario has more cushion than the first far more often than not.

I don't buy the concept of intrinsic value. I know you are a value investor as we have discussed this before. But based on experience and research, I also happen to know that value investing is not the only kind, and not always the most successful kind. In any given quarter, year, or run of years, value may provide the best returns; in others growth does better. Since you can do no more than guess which flavor of investment will do better at any given time, the value investment strategy should be treated as one arrow in the quiver. Put it this way, had I used a value investing strategy I would never have bought AAPL in the first place, or I would probably have bailed in the mid-2000s when the multiples were sky high. Those indicators were screaming "bad value" to some, but "huge growth" to others. Guess who was right.

I know, lots of folks think they can stare into the hairy eyeball and make it do their bidding. Personally, I think they are being hypnotized.

[LagunaSol]

Originally Posted by TallManNY

If we go the austerity route, the economy will contract and Apple will sell less stuff. But I would be curious to find out what percentage of Apple's sales go to folks making, for example, over $200,000 a year. So maybe Apple will still continue to sell, like luxury goods that continued to sell just fine right through the latest recession.

Businesses who sell high-quality products will survive - and often excel - through both bad times and good.

The companies who jeopardize themselves (Sony, Dell, etc.) do so by turning to lower-quality products in exchange for greater volume. Never a good idea in the long run.

It's also hard to call, say, an iMac a "luxury item" when it sells for less than the equivalent product did 15 years ago (not even adjusting for inflation). That's not luxury. That's maintaining your high quality standards while your competitors slash each others throats with cheap junk.

[MyMacintosh]

Originally Posted by lzyprson

These people on Wallstreet have no idea what they are doing... They are so out of touch with Apple and the Tech industry. The ONLY reasons why Apple will not become a $1trillion company is because of a handfull of analysts that put out crappy "analysis" (opinions) that are based off of their 20 years of experience in betting everything they own on the Microsofts, the Intel's; etc.

Facebook is a good example of this. Wallstreet has no idea how powerful the social media combined with technology such as iphones (super-smart phones in general) have on how the future will be.

Im pretty sure they know ALOT more than you think you do

[iSee]

Originally Posted by iMaven

AC/DC just released their catalog to iTunes.

WHAT!?! Awesome! Been waiting for this!

I'm not sure this has anything to do with the stock price, but this was so annoying. It's like they put out 20 albums each with 1 great song and a mess of ones I don't like. Been holding out (except for a few absolutely must haves).

[IJ Reilly]

Originally Posted by PrometheusGeek

Yep. Agreed. It was somewhat overvalued, needed an adjustment. It'll rise again with Mini sales and Christmas.

Another brave predictor of near future stock prices. They ought to give out medals. It wasn't more than a few weeks ago when another brave soul on these boards confidently forecasted a 10% increase in AAPL within a month, which would have put it north of $660 right around now. I always seem to catch some flack when I respond sarcastically to this kind of schoolyard stock market talk, and may well again. I just hope somebody has learned their lesson -- but I admit, I often hope in vain.

So here's the straight skinny: AAPL zoomed from $600 to over $700 for a gain of around 15% in a matter of just a few weeks. Then in a general market retreat, it fell more than 20% in about the same matter of weeks. What was the reason for the buying frenzy? What was the reason for the selloff? Everybody knows, but only after the fact; before the fact, they are just guessing. In reality, the only sign that a stock is "overvalued" is that it sells off, and the only sign that it is "undervalued" is a run up in price. The markets assign the value of stocks on every second of every trading day. That is the market's function.

[weespeed]

Originally Posted by Macboy74

You're lucky I got it at $74.

My mother got in at $7.

But sold at $70. 10 times her initial investment is great, but when it hit $700, 100 times the initial investment would have been ..WOW.

Oh, well.

[iGrip]

Originally Posted by iMikeT

Definitely keep holding. That's too much of a loss at this point.

It is time to sell. Things will get ugly from here on out.

[AidenShaw]

Originally Posted by iGrip

It is time to sell. Things will get ugly from here on out.

The stock is certainly very volatile....

[iMikeT]

Originally Posted by Avatar74

I've never met a day/swing trader who didn't wipe out his principal at some point.

Any number times zero is still zero. Compounding interest over the long term always beats trading. Impatience is the enemy.

I agree, the true day traders (buy in the morning, sell in the afternoon types) with no patience are the ones who lose.

I call myself a day trader simply because I do this on a daily basis. However, I'm far from the type that buys in the morning and sells in the afternoon. At best, I am a very very very very short-term investor (days-months unless I get stuck in a position) that looks for profit in volatility. And I have yet to lose my entire capital so you can say you've traded posts with one.

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Originally Posted by kaneda

I thought this bounce was from Fiscal Cliff news..

Originally Posted by Eidorian

It looks like AMD is up too.

Everything was up today mostly because of the so-called "fiscal cliff" hopes. Hopefully this ride continues as AAPL is severely overbought as it is.

Full Disclosure, I am currently holding a long position in AMD due to being stuck in it some months ago. I currently see it as a junk stock and wish I got out a long time ago.

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Originally Posted by iGrip

It is time to sell. Things will get ugly from here on out.

Not another one....

[IJ Reilly]

Originally Posted by AidenShaw

The stock is certainly very volatile....

Less so than it used to be.

[iMikeT]

Originally Posted by AidenShaw

The stock is certainly very volatile....

EVERY stock is volatile. Some admittedly, are more volatile than others. Check out the volatility of TSLA (Tesla Motors) since they IPO'd a couple of years ago.

[bedifferent]

"The bars of graph go up and down, up and down, up and down.

The lines of the graph go up and down, all through the quarter"

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Originally Posted by iMikeT

EVERY stock is volatile. Some admittedly, are more volatile than others. Check out the volatility of TSLA (Tesla Motors) since they IPO'd a couple of years ago.

True dat. The stock market is [by nature] an unstable beast, driven by emotion, panic, quick and short sells, and future traders (which blows my MIND).

The History Channel recently aired a documentary discussing robots being placed on the Stock Exchange floor for e-trading, etc. for a whopping fee. Trades are happening so fast, the NYSE and Chicago Mercantile Exchange want a direct microwave radio link for instant communication (not kidding). They want to modify the landscape bet Chicago and NYC to facilitate the microwave communication as stocks are being traded in nanoseconds (faster than the speed of light).

Not making this **** up. Future trading, scares the **** out of me. Especially with commodities; farms are losing due to crop shortages, corporate based food suppliers are buying farmland to grow genetically engineered corn, etc. and will charge premium dollars. Forget the few bucks for corn at the corner market, triple that for corn from your friendly corporate engineers.

[mytakeontech]

Originally Posted by samcraig

Personally I don't think it's because of Analysts comments but a decent "correction" in the sell off of shares that occurred over the past couple of weeks.

There are analysts posting comments almost on a daily basis.

All short covering. Shorts made enough in last month or so. This will go down steadily and stabilize again from Jan I guess.

[iMikeT]

Originally Posted by bedifferent

True dat. The stock market is [by nature] an unstable beast, driven by emotion, panic, quick and short sells, and future traders (which blows my MIND).

The History Channel recently aired a documentary discussing robots being placed on the Stock Exchange floor for e-trading, etc. for a whopping fee. Trades are happening so fast, the NYSE and Chicago Mercantile Exchange want a direct microwave radio link for instant communication (not kidding). They want to modify the landscape bet Chicago and NYC to facilitate the microwave communication as stocks are being traded in nanoseconds (faster than the speed of light).

Not making this **** up. Future trading, scares the **** out of me. Especially with commodities; farms are losing due to crop shortages, corporate based food suppliers are buying farmland to grow genetically engineered corn, etc. and will charge premium dollars. Forget the few bucks for corn at the corner market, triple that for corn from your friendly corporate engineers.

You said it best with what I highlighted in bold.

Very interesting thought about trading the futures of commodities and by robots of all things! And I agree, that is very scary. There is proposed legislation that would tax these high-volume transactions completed by these machines as a way to generate revenue for the government and regulate the industry. I'm for it but guess who would be against such things.....

[bedifferent]

Originally Posted by iMikeT

You said it best with what I highlighted in bold.

Very interesting thought about trading the futures of commodities and by robots of all things! And I agree, that is very scary. There is proposed legislation that would tax these high-volume transactions completed by these machines as a way to generate revenue for the government and regulate the industry. I'm for it but guess who would be against such things.....

Isn't it? Scares the **** out of me. Getting older, 36, yet still "young", I found myself often wishing for the 90's, when times seemed innocent and "simpler". While refilling prescriptions I was pondering what would happened if all we did was scan a bottle in with our mobile devices, and picking them up through an automated dispenser. Never once dealing with a pharmacist unless we had to, little to no human contact. A bit off topic, but that scares the crap out of me. We are already experiencing it with social media replacing human contact. Jobs and humanity will be lost if life becomes too automated.

The S.E. should not be automated. Remember what happened when Apple stock went up in short sells and trading was halted? It was due to a faulty algorithm. In a matter of minutes, this future trade algorithm almost destroyed many lives. That is frightening.

Don't said our POTUS. Ugh. I voted for him, it came down to the lesser of two evils, but honestly, the system has been so corrupted for so long, unless a genuinely altruistic third party enters into power, we're powerless.

Where's my antidepressant? lol

[MacDav]

Originally Posted by 1080p

I remember when I bought stock at $16 a share. Best decision I ever made. </DREAM>

I actually did buy Apple at $16 a share. Unfortunately I sold it all at $32 a share ( I doubled my money) ... Life goes on...In 2008 when the market crashed, I pushed through my fear, took my entire life savings and bought Apple at $80 a share. This time around when I doubled my money I was smart enough not to sell.

[johnsy]

apple is dead. My less than $100 polaroid tablet kicks a$$. i have a choice to download apps from many websites amazon, 1mobile market, slideme market and it works like champ. so how many ipads I could buy for that???? Xoxo

[MacDav]

Originally Posted by zbarvian

Woot woot

Not so fast... Check the stock price tomorrow morning before you get too exited.

[MacDav]

Originally Posted by Limboistik

I hate how I bought in before the heavily manipulated stock prices :/

Still holding on to $664.

You need $700 next year to equal $664 this year, because capital gains goes from 15% this year to 20% next year.

[everything-i]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt

In my opinion, many of these "analysts" should be investigated by the SEC. After Apple's earnings call, it was all doom-and-gloom. Now that it appears they've pushed the stock down as low as it will go, they're all "best stock EVAH!" again. They all dumped at $700, spread bad news, now they're reversing course. Bringing the stock back up should be a far easier task than crushing it for them, considering just how insanely great Apple's earnings continue to be.

Happens all the time the big investment houses or market makers as they are called get their analysts and brokers to put out a lot of bad news to depress a stock. The small investors panic and start to dump their holding while the big boys wait for the price to get as low as they want before gradually increasing their holding. When the the time is right they then get the analysts and brokers to change to a positive spin and watch the profits roll in. This has always happened and always will. You have to look past the tom toms beating in the streat to figure out what is really going on.

[macs4nw]

Originally Posted by Limboistik

I hate how I bought in before the heavily manipulated stock prices :/ Still holding on to $664.

Don't feel bad; even the most knowledgeable investors sometimes get caught off-guard. Stock markets fluctuate, sometimes wildly, and it's no place for 'nervous nellies'. There's no guarantee, but if APPLE can keep supply up with demand, there is an excellent likelihood, that by January's earnings call, you'll be past that $664, so I'd keep holding on as well.

[bencjedi]

Originally Posted by Limboistik

I hate how I bought in before the heavily manipulated stock prices :/

Still holding on to $664.

I bought my shares at exactly the same time\rate and COMPLETELY relate to how you feel. I hope I am right, by hanging in there also.

[bretm]

Originally Posted by MacDav

I actually did buy Apple at $16 a share. Unfortunately I sold it all at $32 a share ( I doubled my money) ... Life goes on...In 2008 when the market crashed, I pushed through my fear, took my entire life savings and bought Apple at $80 a share. This time around when I doubled my money I was smart enough not to sell.

I bought quite a lot at 86, literally during the iPhone demo in January 07. I sold HALF when it got to 170, paying for the original investment. Wish I had let it ride, but that wouldn't have been smart decision.

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Originally Posted by MacDav

You need $700 next year to equal $664 this year, because capital gains goes from 15% this year to 20% next year.

One would hope everyone that isn't doing this for a living is investing in an IRA. Mines in a ROTH thank goodness.

[GorgonPhone]

wow is it really that easy to move apple stock up??? dang so i guess they really dont even need to make any more interesting products updates at all... just get some rich guys to say they like it and boom.. back to 700..

and in the mean time we have to settle for ipad mini with no retina and and iPhone 5s with long narrow screen dimensions.. and the same boring UI we have had for 5 damn years