How much do you expect a base 2012 rMBP 15" be worth in 3 years?

[NewishMacGuy]

Originally Posted by SiPi

Then I doubt you can afford it.

You've got it the wrong way around. Those who don't calculate the costs of ownership are the ones who really can't afford it.

[725032]

Originally Posted by NewishMacGuy

You've got it the wrong way around. Those who don't calculate the costs of ownership are the ones who really can't afford it.

What on earth are you talking about?!... Maybe for someone with financial issues.

I buy items outright and have no need to worry about their resale value. Once im finished with them i just pass them on to a family member, charity or bin it.

I earn a lot of money and spend it as i please.

[jessica.]

Originally Posted by SiPi

Exactly. Why bother spending any money at all if resale is all you care about

Honestly

I would go nuts if I had to worry so much about these things on such a small scale. If it were a massive purchase of multiple machines for my business I would consider it worth my worry. Not so much when buying one machine for personal use.

Originally Posted by raptorstv

Im calculating the cost of ownership

No you're not, not really. The cost of ownership is the price tag + anything you buy for the machine over the time you own it. You can offset the cost of ownership if you resell the item at the end of it's useful life. Useful life is subjective to the user. Regardless, your cost of ownership should only be calculated using the price of the machine + what you buy for the machine over time. Additionally, you would look at possible maintenance, extended warranties, and even electricity if you want to get nit-picky.

To be able to answer what the value of a used machine will be in 3 years would be hard because there is no historic data for the retina MBP. If you were to buy a 15" base MBP then we could probably tell you that historically speaking a 15" MBP would sell for a certain amount of money after three years. Examples could easily be shown based on past eBay sales. You're looking to buy a flagship machine (the "leading member" of the group) and since three years have not passed since the retina-MBP has been out, no one can really say one way or the other.

One way you can look at it is check the prices of the retina iPads. Not the price to us, the consumer, but to Apple. How much did they pay per unit with the first retina iPad model? How much for the second? The retina screen throws it off but you can bet that the cost of a 15" retina display today is going to be at least 25-40% less in the next couple of years. SSDs are a great example of this.

If you're dying for a number, I say $800 tops. It will be out of warranty (and out of any possible extended warranty) and I venture to guess (hope) the price of a retina MBP will go down as manufacturing costs decrease.

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Originally Posted by jessica.

I would go nuts if I had to worry so much about these things on such a small scale. If it were a massive purchase of multiple machines for my business I would consider it worth my worry. Not so much when buying one machine for personal use.



No you're not, not really. The cost of ownership is the price tag + anything you buy for the machine over the time you own it. You can offset the cost of ownership if you resell the item at the end of it's useful life. Useful life is subjective to the user. Regardless, your cost of ownership should only be calculated using the price of the machine + what you buy for the machine over time. Additionally, you would look at possible maintenance, extended warranties, and even electricity if you want to get nit-picky.

To be able to answer what the value of a used machine will be in 3 years would be hard because there is no historic data for the retina MBP. If you were to buy a 15" base MBP then we could probably tell you that historically speaking a 15" MBP would sell for a certain amount of money after three years. Examples could easily be shown based on past eBay sales. You're looking to buy a flagship machine (the "leading member" of the group) and since three years have not passed since the retina-MBP has been out, no one can really say one way or the other.

One way you can look at it is check the prices of the retina iPads. Not the price to us, the consumer, but to Apple. How much did they pay per unit with the first retina iPad model? How much for the second? The retina screen throws it off but you can bet that the cost of a 15" retina display today is going to be at least 25-40% less in the next couple of years. SSDs are a great example of this.

If you're dying for a number, I say $800 tops. It will be out of warranty (and out of any possible extended warranty) and I venture to guess (hope) the price of a retina MBP will go down as manufacturing costs decrease.

Originally Posted by NewishMacGuy

You've got it the wrong way around. Those who don't calculate the costs of ownership are the ones who really can't afford it.

This is absolutely absurd.

[NewishMacGuy]

Originally Posted by SiPi

What on earth are you talking about?!... Maybe for someone with financial issues.

I buy items outright and have no need to worry about their resale value. Once im finished with them i just pass them on to a family member, charity or bin it.

I earn a lot of money and spend it as i please.

Lots of people earn lots of money and (aside from taxation and other forms of theft) everyone spends it as they please.

It's been my experience that those who are able to build and keep wealth ALWAYS calculate the costs of ownership, consider resale value, and make rational decisions based on their calculations. It's called being smart with your money, no matter how much you earn and have managed to save. That's all this fellow is doing and he should be commended for it.

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Originally Posted by jessica.

This is absolutely absurd.

You'll get it once you've been around the block a couple more times.

[725032]

Originally Posted by NewishMacGuy

Lots of people earn lots of money and (aside from taxation and other forms of theft) everyone spends it as they please.

It's been my experience that those who are able to build and keep wealth ALWAYS calculate the costs of ownership, consider resale value, and make rational decisions based on their calculations. It's called being smart with your money, no matter how much you earn and have managed to save. That's all this fellow is doing and he should be commended for it.

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You'll get it once you've been around the block a couple more times.

Your experience is wrong.

When you earn a certain amount of money, spending a few thousand on a laptop doesnt require any calculations at all. It has no marginal impact on my financial position.

I bought an ipad mini recently, didnt like the screen so i gave it to my house keeper who gave it to her son. Didnt effect me at all... In fact all it did was put a smile on that boys face.

Your rudeness to other forum users is disgusting.

[NewishMacGuy]

Originally Posted by SiPi

Your experience is wrong.

When you earn a certain amount of money, spending a few thousand on a laptop doesnt require any calculations at all. It has no marginal impact on my financial position.

I bought an ipad mini recently, didnt like the screen so i gave it to my house keeper who gave it to her son. Didnt effect me at all... In fact all it did was put a smile on that boys face.

Your rudeness to other forum users is disgusting.

I think you were the one being rude. No one really cares what you earn or what lifestyle your earnings afford you, or whether or not you think someone else can afford an rMBP just because they're trying to gather information about potential resale value.

And spending a few thousand here or there certainly does require SOME degree of calculation for anyone. There are plenty of alternate things that you might otherwise do with that same few thousand or others of your earnings, including possibly help your housekeeper's son get a better education. Not saying that that you are under any obligation to do that just because you seem to think that you earn a lot of money (and what is a lot of money anyway - I'm pretty sure that we'll have different perceptions as to how that's defined), just saying that ALL spending requires some thought about potential alternative uses, calculation as to what the preferred use may be, and some estimation of the value of the purchased object both now and in the future. Why criticize someone else for doing that, particularly if it's rooted in a need for you to either imply or directly tell people that you "earn a lot of money," whatever that means to you?

That's just sad.

And don't think this is a diatribe against wealth or people with it. I value the contributions of the wealthy in our society enormously (and by contributions I don't mean their charity, I mean the productivity which earned them their wealth in the first place). I just grew up believing that flaunting your wealth either implicitly or explicitly is in poor taste, mostly because it's stupid.

[jessica.]

Originally Posted by NewishMacGuy

You'll get it once you've been around the block a couple more times.

I imagine I have probably "got it" much more than you do, with or without strolling around the block.

[tivoboy]

I think you'll see about 1000-1200 for the rMBP 15" in three years.

Models hold their value pretty well, and there won't be a TON of OS or even hardware features that would make a product from today, a poor candidate for an OS of 2015..

There WILL be some form of higher inflation here over the next couple of years, not like the 2% we've had over the past four years annually (I'm not making any political points here, just saying that as world economies recover - and they ARE recovering, more rapid asset inflation is bound to happen) so, we'll probably see somewhat higher pricing for the 2015/16 models regardless, making the opportunity for an older model to hold a solid USED value higher.

If you look at 2008 model MBP 15" today, the early 2008 models are 600-700 nicely configured and the original unibody sells for 800-1000. I think these current models will do better than that for the reasons listed above.

So, look at spending about 40$ a month on the machine over the next 36 months. Try to get at least that much pleasure, knowledge or increased work product out of it over that period and you'll be fine.

[Interstella5555]

Originally Posted by raptorstv

Im calculating the cost of ownership

Sounds suspiciously like you're looking at this as an investment...which you shouldn't.

[NewishMacGuy]

Originally Posted by jessica.

I imagine I have probably "got it" much more than you do, with or without strolling around the block.

Then let your imagination run wild!

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Originally Posted by Interstella5555

Sounds suspiciously like you're looking at this as an investment...which you shouldn't.

True on the second part, but just calculating the cost of ownership of something over time, inclusive of a "terminal value" doesn't mean that you're looking at it as an investment. It just means that you're trying to get an accurate sense of the cost to you given your time horizon and the fact that it realistically won't be worth zero over such a short horizon.

[raptorstv]

How long do you guys usually keep a laptop before selling it/stop using it?

[ramram55]

If you feel the need for a macbook pro, you got to get it. If retina is that important go for it.
Calculating a value is what you want than get a refurbished one will be cheaper to own. The way things are going Apple will introduce a new macbook every year, just like automaker will produce yearly model, you cannot buy a car every car, unless you are super rich.

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Originally Posted by raptorstv

How long do you guys usually keep a laptop before selling it/stop using it?

the way things are going for apple macbook pro, say I own a 2010 model, as long as the OSX can be updated, with SSD and max Ram size, it could go for 5 years minimum or till the machine goes beyond un repairable.

[mslide]

It won't be worth nearly as much as you think. Maybe a few hundred and that's it. This is v1 technology. In 3 years, the entire MacBook line could have retina displays. So in a few years, one would be able to get a new 'retina' MBP for a lot less than one can today.

That's the price you pay for being an early adopter.

Originally Posted by raptorstv

How long do you guys usually keep a laptop before selling it/stop using it?

I try to go at least 5 years. My previous MB lasted me nearly 6 years.

[vpro]

My 2006 17" MBP is still working and producing a lot of new works for me. If you take good care and baby your machine it isn't about the value it will sustain but the length of time it will last and the money it will save / generate to you.

[NewishMacGuy]

Originally Posted by raptorstv

How long do you guys usually keep a laptop before selling it/stop using it?

Previous one was 5 years. Paid $1000 as a 2007 refurb and sold it for $250 a few months ago, but that one wasn't my main computer then, the laptop +ATD is now. Will keep the 2011s I bought off of CL and upgraded for a year or two until the rMBP-15 gets 802.11ac, 512GB SSD standard, and a normalized price (in real terms). Will upgrade the wife's cMBP-13 to rMBP-13 at the same time in all likelihood. Then I'll keep that until it can no longer support the stuff I need/want to do, figure that'll be 4-5 years or so, though it could be shorter because you can't upgrade it (which was surely part of Apple's intent).

The thing about Macs is that they tend to work great for a long time, or at least they used to. We still use everything in my sig pretty regularly (though the iBooks are basically fancy toys for the kids).

[ramram55]

Originally Posted by NewishMacGuy

Previous one was 5 years. Paid $1000 as a 2007 refurb and sold it for $250 a few months ago, but that one wasn't my main computer then, the laptop +ATD is now. Will keep the 2011s I bought off of CL and upgraded for a year or two until the rMBP-15 gets 802.11ac, 512GB SSD standard, and a normalized price (in real terms). Will upgrade the wife's cMBP-13 to rMBP-13 at the same time in all likelihood. Then I'll keep that until it can no longer support the stuff I need/want to do, figure that'll be 4-5 years or so, though it could be shorter because you can't upgrade it (which was surely part of Apple's intent).

The thing about Macs is that they tend to work great for a long time, or at least they used to. We still use everything in my sig pretty regularly (though the iBooks are basically fancy toys for the kids).

Sure you have some arsenal at your disposal, that will make apple happy. On serious note it is a great ideal to keep the machines at hand, my next venture is get a mac mini.

[raptorstv]

Originally Posted by mslide

It won't be worth nearly as much as you think. Maybe a few hundred and that's it. This is v1 technology. In 3 years, the entire MacBook line could have retina displays. So in a few years, one would be able to get a new 'retina' MBP for a lot less than one can today.

That's the price you pay for being an early adopter.



I try to go at least 5 years. My previous MB lasted me nearly 6 years.

Damn this got me to wonder what will the base price for rmbp be next year... $1800 for the 15"? Meaning $1600 with student pricing?

I live in Canada, by next year 1 CDN will likely to be able to buy 1.50$ USD anyway... With the pace of economic downturn and currency debasement that you Americans experiencing

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Originally Posted by SiPi

What on earth are you talking about?!... Maybe for someone with financial issues.

I buy items outright and have no need to worry about their resale value. Once im finished with them i just pass them on to a family member, charity or bin it.

I earn a lot of money and spend it as i please.

Not so fast fool... Canadians are richer than you Americans. Keep digging deeper into debts!

[Queen6]

Originally Posted by raptorstv

Im calculating the cost of ownership

You should also factor in that the usable life of a Mac far outreaches a PC. If your usage pattern does not significantly change the machine may well offer 4-5 years of solid usability, which is pretty common for a Mac under average use. Those making revenue from their Mac`s changing frequently, increasing productivity makes a lot of sense sense.

A Mac is not about having the latest, biggest numbers, a Mac is about enjoying the experience, the efficiency. i have Mac`s from 2012, 2011, & 2008 and they all perform great, the Early 2008 15" 2.4 Penryn MBP is starting to show it`s age, equally it`s still more than capable of fulfilling the basics smoothly without any fuss with over 35K operating hours on the clock, stock barring RAM expansion. The value, well it`s more than paid for itself, when the time comes i will simply gift it.

As for resale any Mac will retain a greater percentage of value, versus a PC, after 3 years i would estimate 40% - 50%, equally you can buy smart, an Apple refurb of an "open box" from best buy, save on the top end and your resale in 3 years wont suffer

[raptorstv]

Originally Posted by Queen6

You should also factor in that the usable life of a Mac far outreaches a PC. If your usage pattern does not significantly change the machine may well offer 4-5 years of solid usability, which is pretty common for a Mac under average use. Those making revenue from their Mac`s changing frequently, increasing productivity makes a lot of sense sense.

A Mac is not about having the latest, biggest numbers, a Mac is about enjoying the experience, the efficiency. i have Mac`s from 2012, 2011, & 2008 and they all perform great, the Early 2008 15" 2.4 Penryn MBP is starting to show it`s age, equally it`s still more than capable of fulfilling the basics smoothly without any fuss with over 35K operating hours on the clock, stock barring RAM expansion. The value, well it`s more than paid for itself, when the time comes i will simply gift it.

As for resale any Mac will retain a greater percentage of value, versus a PC, after 3 years i would estimate 40% - 50%, equally you can buy smart, an Apple refurb of an "open box" from best buy, save on the top end and your resale in 3 years wont suffer

I dont think the length of usability is a valid argument anymore. Back then, nobody ever thought about playing intensive games using mac... But the new gen of MBP is capable for doing that, overheating becomes a common issue nowadays

[ramram55]

Originally Posted by raptorstv

Damn this got me to wonder what will the base price for rmbp be next year... $1800 for the 15"? Meaning $1600 with student pricing?

I live in Canada, by next year 1 CDN will likely to be able to buy 1.50$ USD anyway... With the pace of economic downturn and currency debasement that you Americans experiencing

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Not so fast fool... Canadians are richer than you Americans. Keep digging deeper into debts!

What is your point for Americans and Canadians being rich or poor ?

[raptorstv]

Originally Posted by ramram55

What is your point for Americans and Canadians being rich or poor ?

Americans are too cocky... Theyre poor but they wont admit it
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xGM6_RQIsw&sns=em

[gotzero]

Regardless of what (low) value the machine will have in three years, calculating the "cost of ownership" for a technology product including resale is a bad idea.

In virtually all cases, purchases of technology products are sunk costs. If you manage to recover useful value out of a tech product after you use it, that is great, but do not plan on it.

In the next three years, it is completely possible to have such significant hardware changes that a 2012 computer will be considered more or less useless by anyone willing to pay more than the bare minimum for a laptop (think $250 chromebook or $350 laptop).

[NewishMacGuy]

Originally Posted by raptorstv

I live in Canada, by next year 1 CDN will likely to be able to buy 1.50$ USD anyway... With the pace of economic downturn and currency debasement that you Americans experiencing

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Not so fast fool... Canadians are richer than you Americans. Keep digging deeper into debts!

LOL! So true, it's a shame many of us won't really understand what you're saying. But I guess that's why we allow it to happen.

Make no mistake though, Mark "the" Carney and the BOC/BDC have it in for you guys just as much as the Bernank & Crew have it in for us! It won't be too long before you enter the race to the bottom because "it just wouldn't be good for the export businesses to let the CAD appreciate too much."

Though I suspect the that the fellow to whom you replied in that last post may be British, given the post timing and his phrasing.

[MaxPower72]

Originally Posted by raptorstv

Im calculating the cost of ownership

it's not a car you're talking about... it's just a computer

[sostoobad]

I think the OP makes a good point, I too like to figure out what these things really cost me, anyway he will still be better off than buying a pc.

BUT like a few have said, you want the new technology, you pay for it.
Look at the 1st Air wasn't it 1800 clams, now 1199.00

Buying any retina machine is going to cost you more, it is going to come down, how much, don't know BUT if in 3yrs the same machine is 1500 new, the ones bought now are going to take a hit. I just bought a 2007 macbook pro for 350.00 works fine, some one said 08s are going for 6-800...no they are not.
try 450-500 ish, I saw a 2010 go for 650, that was a good buy.

My gues is if you bought a NON retina machine it will cost you less, but no retina..and there is quibble...only you can decide if it is worth the extra.

I have been following certain models on ebay for awhile, it seems the entry level stuff retains more of its value as a percentage, because it is cheapest to buy new...fer instance, I saw a few base mac minis 3 yrs old sell in the 325-350 range, that is fantastic resale. I bought mine new for 549 2011 model.

In my stable now are 2007 macbook Pro, 350.00 2011 Mac mini 549.00
2011 Macbook Air, just bought new at the closeout 699.00

My guess is if i Needed to sell all three, I would be not far from what I have in them. And maybe make a little on the Pro.

PS it is getting a little ugly in here..just saying.