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Old Jan 2, 2013, 06:34 PM   #26
3N16MA
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January 23

Apple: "Our best quarter ever!"

Analysts and investors: "Apple sucks because they did not live up to our unreachable expectations!"

Random MR poster: "Apple is doomed!"

Next day

Apple continues to print money
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Old Jan 2, 2013, 06:38 PM   #27
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Old Jan 2, 2013, 06:39 PM   #28
IJ Reilly
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The company provided guidance for the first quarter of fiscal 2013 for revenue of $52 billion and earnings per diluted share of $11.75. If it meets that guidance, it would count as the strongest quarter for Apple in history.
Actually, no. Last year's Q1 EPS was $13.87, so if earnings come in at the guidance number, then it will be the first year-over-year decline in memory. In short, a disaster.
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Old Jan 2, 2013, 06:57 PM   #29
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Originally Posted by IJ Reilly View Post
Actually, no. Last year's Q1 EPS was $13.87, so if earnings come in at the guidance number, then it will be the first year-over-year decline in memory. In short, a disaster.
Q1, 2012L For fiscal Q1, Apple reported $46.33 billion revenue and net profits of $13.06 billion, or $13.87 a share.

Estimate for Q2: $52 Billion at $11.75.

So... either gross margin is down or number of outstanding shares is up. Not sure. But hardly a decline in top line revenue or sales.
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Old Jan 2, 2013, 06:59 PM   #30
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We'll probably get 6.1 soon after the 23rd.
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Old Jan 2, 2013, 07:01 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by IJ Reilly View Post
Actually, no. Last year's Q1 EPS was $13.87, so if earnings come in at the guidance number, then it will be the first year-over-year decline in memory. In short, a disaster.
Reilly...u can sound a bit more credible if u write complete and objective info!

Apple did 13.87 while their guidance was 9.3 last jan q

Their guidance for this q is 11.75.. Apply the same factor between actual and guidance of last jan q. And u get a potential of 17+ this q.
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Old Jan 2, 2013, 07:06 PM   #32
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I'm kind of hoping to hear news about their plan for the dividend and stock buyback. Otherwise, let's hope Apple is able to beat analysts expectations.
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Old Jan 2, 2013, 07:20 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by Popeye206 View Post
Q1, 2012L For fiscal Q1, Apple reported $46.33 billion revenue and net profits of $13.06 billion, or $13.87 a share.

Estimate for Q2: $52 Billion at $11.75.

So... either gross margin is down or number of outstanding shares is up. Not sure. But hardly a decline in top line revenue or sales.
Apple was guiding analyst expectations of margins down a bit because of all the new product releases (expensive capital investments to depreciate, selling price points staying mostly the same, etc.). The iPad mini vs 4th gen is a good case in point. Likely the margin is better on the base 4th gen at $499 than it is on the $329 mini, but the mini likely sold better (don't expect Apple to break out sales by model, though). It's a similar story with the iPhone 5. The selling price remained $649, but the cost of production was likely higher.

iPhone drives about half of Apple's profits. iPad is next. iPod is in decline (but still a cash cow and a low-risk testing ground for new concepts), while Mac at this point is mostly gravy (at least as far as earnings are concerned).
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Old Jan 2, 2013, 07:22 PM   #34
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 3N16MA View Post
January 23

Apple: "Our best quarter ever!"

Analysts and investors: "Apple sucks because they did not live up to our unreachable expectations!"

Random MR poster: "Apple is doomed!"

Next day

Apple continues to print money
Sounds about right.

Troll day and earnings call day tend to go hand in hand on this forum.
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Old Jan 2, 2013, 07:52 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by Szarky View Post
Stock is up because of fiscal cliff news.
You are partially correct. Stocks are up for many reasons.
1. Fiscal Cliff
2. Those who sold stocks to beat capital gains going from 15% to 20%, are now buying back in.

Specific to Apple:
3. Apple was at a recent low and people are buying in.
4. Apple is selling iPhones and iPad minis like hotcakes. It looks like they will have a blowout quarter
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Old Jan 2, 2013, 08:11 PM   #36
IJ Reilly
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Popeye206 View Post
Q1, 2012L For fiscal Q1, Apple reported $46.33 billion revenue and net profits of $13.06 billion, or $13.87 a share.

Estimate for Q2: $52 Billion at $11.75.

So... either gross margin is down or number of outstanding shares is up. Not sure. But hardly a decline in top line revenue or sales.
It don't mean a thing if you don't got that swing, and that swing on Wall Street is EPS. We'd better be looking at $14.00 EPS, bare minimum, or it isn't going to be a good day for investors.

The number of shares outstanding should not be growing, at least not by much. Apple announced a share buyback when the dividend was announced.

----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Yojimbo007 View Post
Reilly...u can sound a bit more credible if u write complete and objective info!

Apple did 13.87 while their guidance was 9.3 last jan q

Their guidance for this q is 11.75.. Apply the same factor between actual and guidance of last jan q. And u get a potential of 17+ this q.
I cited the numbers, which are as credible and objective as possible, at least where I come from. Yes, Apple typically beats their guidance by quite a bit. I was correcting the article, which stated that if they report guidance ($11.75 EPS) that it would be the best quarter in history. Objectively, and credibly, this is not true. Objectively, and credibly, if this came to pass, it would represent a year-over-year decrease in earnings.

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Originally Posted by Technarchy View Post
Sounds about right.

Troll day and earnings call day tend to go hand in hand on this forum.
Sounds about wrong. The basic principle of stock markets is that investors do well when a company earns more than expected and poorly when they earn less. All efforts to turn this into a controversial concept will fail (though that doesn't stop many from trying).
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Old Jan 2, 2013, 08:33 PM   #37
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Originally Posted by jontech View Post
buy stock
Already did, but because it's so undervalued following the Fiscal Cliff BS, not based on this news. Even if Apple releases not-so-amazing earnings reports, what they release will be more indicative of success than the current stock price. Their P/E ratio is low compared to other companies and has been in the past.

AAPL 12.43
AMZN P/E is 3676! And it's always been especially high.
MSFT 14.93
GOOG 22.66
And to add a non-tech company... MCD (McDonald's) 16.97

----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by 3N16MA View Post
January 23

Apple: "Our best quarter ever!"

Analysts and investors: "Apple sucks because they did not live up to our unreachable expectations!"

Random MR poster: "Apple is doomed!"

Next day

Apple continues to print money
You forgot:
Analysts and investors: "We're going over the Fiscal Cliff for sure! Apple will die!"
Obama-opposers: "We have Nobama again?! Sell!"
Obama-supporters: "Obama-opposers will sell. Sell!"
Analysts and investors: "Anyone who cares about politics will sell. Sell!"

The easiest way to win in the stock market is buy after a little bit of this happens.

Last edited by Morshu9001; Jan 2, 2013 at 08:31 PM.
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Old Jan 2, 2013, 08:34 PM   #38
thasan
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Really? From what I see Macrumors is polluted by Apple haters and Android/ Samsung "enthusiasts".
exactly.
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Old Jan 2, 2013, 08:40 PM   #39
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They could start by paying their taxes, along with Google, Microsoft etc.
Yeah, it's stupid how easily companies can avoid taxes. But the amount of tax that they're supposed to pay is also stupidly high.

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Originally Posted by louis.b View Post
Really? From what I see Macrumors is polluted by Apple haters and Android/ Samsung "enthusiasts".
No it's not, but you notice them a lot more. There's a guy called Wikius who would probably see this article and say that Apple is milking sheep or something.
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Old Jan 2, 2013, 08:56 PM   #40
rickag
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They could start by paying their taxes, along with Google, Microsoft etc.
They are paying their taxes, don't believe me,look it up, it is on their website under investor relations in their filings.
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Old Jan 2, 2013, 08:57 PM   #41
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Originally Posted by matjamca View Post
Why should Apple bail out the US Government? If the Government can't control it's own spending that's their problem; no one else's!
Agree with your question. Totally disagree with your following sentence. Ask the common person in Greece how their government's failure isn't their problem.
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Old Jan 2, 2013, 09:04 PM   #42
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Originally Posted by IJ Reilly View Post
Actually, no. Last year's Q1 EPS was $13.87, so if earnings come in at the guidance number, then it will be the first year-over-year decline in memory. In short, a disaster.
Remember that last year's Q1 had 13 weeks and this one only has 12. They made sure to mention that several times on the last call. Not saying that this negates your point, but I haven't seen anyone mention it yet.
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Old Jan 2, 2013, 09:06 PM   #43
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Yea it is going to be a big quarter for sure.

Wish I woulda got in when they were chilling around 400 a bit back.
Like people who post on MacRumors have $50,000.00 laying around to invest in 100 shares of AAPL, typically the minimum number of shares required for a transaction.
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Old Jan 2, 2013, 09:08 PM   #44
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buy stock
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Old Jan 2, 2013, 09:22 PM   #45
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Really? From what I see Macrumors is polluted by Apple haters and Android/ Samsung "enthusiasts".
So you're saying anyone who might prefer another brand over Apple and turns the blind eye when Apple might release a product that is inferior to the competition is "polluting?"

So people here are supposed to like Apple no matter what even if there's another company that might have a better product for a certain Apple product?

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Old Jan 2, 2013, 09:57 PM   #46
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So you're saying anyone who might prefer another brand over Apple and turns the blind eye when Apple might release a product that is inferior to the competition is "polluting?"

So people here are supposed to like Apple no matter what even if there's another company that might have a better product for a certain Apple product?

The real question is: If you prefer another brand over Apple, why are you posting on an Apple rumor site? Of course you have the right to be on this site regardless, but I do question your motives if you hate Apple and only post to berate Apple. There are many posters here who do this without exception. I think their motives are at very least questionable. You may like some Apple products and dislike others, this is fine. However, if you only come on Macrumors to trash Apple then I find you pathetic, and possibly even pathological.
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Old Jan 2, 2013, 10:17 PM   #47
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It's going to be fascinating to hear roughly how many iPad Mini's have sold. My bet is that this device is going to exceed Apple's and everyone elses expectations. Wouldn't be surprised if over the next couple of years the mini moves up to trump the maxi in sales, much like the 13" Pro wins over the 15".
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Old Jan 2, 2013, 10:41 PM   #48
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Like people who post on MacRumors have $50,000.00 laying around to invest in 100 shares of AAPL, typically the minimum number of shares required for a transaction.
Actually, you can buy in any quantity, starting with one.
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Old Jan 2, 2013, 10:46 PM   #49
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I expect strong numbers because of very strong iPhone 5 sales in the USA and very strong iPad mini sales worldwide.

I think Apple kind of miscalculated the success of the iPad mini, because everyone loves its smaller size for increased portability.
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Old Jan 2, 2013, 11:06 PM   #50
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The real question is: If you prefer another brand over Apple, why are you posting on an Apple rumor site? Of course you have the right to be on this site regardless, but I do question your motives if you hate Apple and only post to berate Apple. There are many posters here who do this without exception. I think their motives are at very least questionable. You may like some Apple products and dislike others, this is fine. However, if you only come on Macrumors to trash Apple then I find you pathetic, and possibly even pathological.
Exactly! But you have to understand these trolls' concerns. Samsung no longer gets to see Apple's chips and other designs in advance due to shift over to Taiwan Semi. Where else are these trolls going to get their info from now to copy from in timely fashion? Expect a lot more Fandroids to monitor these boards with Apple moving away from Samsung for manufacturing.

Last edited by selva; Jan 3, 2013 at 03:54 AM.
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