Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, January 2013

[Doctor Q]

This is the 20th edition of my semi-annual analysis of the MacRumors Top 50 Posters.

Previous "Top 50 Posters Extrapolated" threads:

2003: July
2004: January, July
2005: January, July
2006: January, July
2007: January, July
2008: January, July
2009: January, July
2010: January, July
2011: January, July
2012: January, July

The legend of column headings follows each chart. Measurements were taken yesterday (January 3rd).

This thread is for general interest and discussion of posting habits. It's not an excuse to build your post count inappropriately. But you already know that, don't you?


Chart #1: Current Top 50 Posters

Computed by Doctor Q in January 2013

                      Cur     Cur   Prev  Delta
Rank  Current Top 50  Posts   Rate  Rank  Rank
----  --------------  ------  ----  ----  -----
  1   GGJstudios      36,107  31.1    3     +2
  2   mad jew         32,199   0.0    1     -1
  3   jessica.        31,737  11.1    5     +2
  4   Doctor Q        31,415   3.5    2     -2
  5   mkrishnan       29,755   0.0    4     -1
  6   Eidorian        28,326   1.6    6      0
  7   Applejuiced     25,979  22.7   13     +6
  8   rdowns          25,719   0.7    7     -1
  9   Abstract        24,142   0.7    8     -1
 10   robbieduncan    23,375   1.8    9     -1
 11   jsw             22,572   2.3   11      0
 12   Mr. Anderson    22,553   0.0   10     -2
 13   Blue Velvet     21,842   0.1   12     -1
 14   Hellhammer      21,445   0.9   14      0
 15   bartelby        19,786   0.1   15      0
 16   iGary           19,583   0.0   16      0
 17   Dagless         19,503   1.8   18     +1
 18   miles01110      19,264   5.7   23     +5
 19   edesignuk       19,259   0.0   17     -2
 20   PlaceofDis      19,235   0.5   19     -1
 21   iBlue           19,170   0.1   20     -1
 22   Jaffa Cake      18,929   3.2   21     -1
 23   ~Shard~         18,325   0.0   22     -1
 24   maflynn         17,993  14.6   36    +12
 25   alphaod         17,526   4.8   25      0

                      Cur     Cur   Prev  Delta
Rank  Current Top 50  Posts   Rate  Rank  Rank
----  --------------  ------  ----  ----  -----
 26   simsaladimbamba 17,355  13.9   37    +11
 27   DoFoT9          17,177   0.3   24     -3
 28   MacDawg         16,917   6.7   32     +4
 29   MacNut          16,901   2.9   28     -1
 30   wdlove          16,571   0.0   26     -4
 31   dukebound85     16,548   4.6   31      0
 32   iJohnHenry      16,460   1.9   29     -3
 33   -aggie-         16,332   0.0   27     -6
 34   yellow          16,016   0.0   30     -4
 35   sushi           15,661   0.2   33     -2
 36   WildCowboy      15,599   0.9   35     -1
 37   devilot         15,591   0.0   34     -3
 38   balamw          15,243   5.8   43     +5
 39   Surely          15,048   2.8   40     +1
 40   Nermal          14,993   2.2   39     -1
 41   Peace           14,774   4.2   45     +4
 42   r.j.s           14,712   2.4   41     -1
 43   Sun Baked       14,665   0.0   38     -5
 44   KnightWRX       14,539  13.6   ---   ---
 45   twoodcc         14,326   0.7   42     -3
 46   leekohler       14,142   1.2   46      0
 47   bousozoku       13,998   0.0   44     -3
 48   Mitthrawnuruodo 13,558   0.0   47     -1
 49   IJ Reilly       12,960   1.6   49      0
 50   yg17            12,941   1.3   48     -2

Columns:

1. Rank = Position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
   
2. Current Top 50 = members with the 50 currently highest post counts.
   
3. Cur Posts = # of posts by that member.
   
4. Cur Rate = average # posts per day by that member over the last 6 months.
   
5. Prev Rank = previous rank, as of 6 months ago (July 2012), or "---" for those who are new to the Top 50.
   
6. Delta Rank = change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank since 6 months ago.

Observations

• KnightWRX is new to the Top 50
  
  
• xUKHCx has dropped off the Top 50.
  
  
• As predicted last time, GGJstudios passed mad jew and Doctor Q for the #1 spot.
  
  
• As predicted last time, jessica. moved past mkrishnan, but unlike my prediction she also inched into the #3 spot by passing Doctor Q. I thought she'd be just shy of that milestone by this month.
  
  
• Applejuiced's post rate increased from 13.4 posts/day over the previous 6 months to 22.7 posts/day over the last 6 months, passing rdowns, Abstract, robbieduncan, jsw, Mr. Anderson, and Blue Velvet.
  
  
• The seven highest posters in the last 6 months (the only users to make more than 2000 posts in 6 months) were
  1. GGJstudios (5,717 posts)
  2. Applejuiced (4,170 posts)
  3. maflynn (2,685 posts)
  4. simsaladimbamba (2,549 posts)
  5. KnightWRX (2,496 posts)
  6. samcraig (2,129 posts)
  7. jessica. (2,037 posts)
  
  That's a slowdown for GGJstudios, who made 7,124 posts in the preceding 6 months, and simsaladimbamba, who made 5,643 posts.
  
  
• Only Applejuiced has broken into the Top 10, knocking out Mr. Anderson. That was a lonnnnnnng time coming. Mr. Anderson was the #1 poster from the beginning of Q time (2003, when I started tracking posts) thru 2007. He stayed in the Top 10, despite making only a handful of posts, for 6 more years!
  
  
• miles01110 broke into the Top 20, displacing iBlue.
  
  
• maflynn broke into the Top 25, ousting DoFoT9.
  
  
• Largest increase in rank: maflynn, up 12 slots.
  
  
• Largest decrease in rank: -aggie-, down 6 slots.

Other stats and charts

Current Top 50 Posters (Chart #1, this post)
6-Month Projected Top 50 Posters (Chart #2)
"End of Time" Top 50 Posters (Chart #3)

Years of membership
Changes in rank
Ranks Over Time: arn and Mr. Anderson
Six month projections: changes in rank
End of Time projections: changes in rank

[mrsir2009]

Number 1# is no suprise

[maflynn]

Wow, I've been on a tear in 2012

Looks like jessica. has as well

Good job Q, thanks for the hard work in putting this together.

[fireshot91]

This has been on my mind the past couple years -

Would it not be interpolated, instead of extrapolated?

The only extrapolation, in my understanding, would be the future posts/posters, no?

[SandboxGeneral]

I always like reading these stats. Good job Q!

[aerok]

Jeez, and I find myself wasting too much time here...

[jessica.]

Le sigh, some of those names are no more around here.
I'm certainly not surprised by the #1 slot either.

[maflynn]

Originally Posted by jessica.

Le sigh, some of those names are no more around here.

That happens, its no surprise as priorities change for people and available time waxes and wanes. I really don't expect to maintain the pace I set forth these past 6 months.

I was heavily involved in the MBP when the rMBP came out, the iPhone, iOS6 and now the iPad mini. I'm pretty much broke so I'll not be buying anything new so my posting will less involved about new products and more about support


btw, I like your new 'Tar

[Doctor Q]

Originally Posted by fireshot91

Would it not be interpolated, instead of extrapolated?

The only extrapolation, in my understanding, would be the future posts/posters, no?

The primary purpose of these threads is what I call "Chart #2" (which I'm preparing now). It shows the Top 50 of the future, specifically a 6-month projection based on previous posting rates. Here is that chart from 6 months ago. Chart #1 is mostly a prelude, and used to echo what we already knew from the Members List, but now that the Members List has been turned off (for performance reasons), Chart #1 provides information that we don't otherwise see.

The thread title uses "extrapolated" because I'm predicting the future based on current trends. None of my results involved interpolation, which would mean finding new data points within existing data ranges.

[Doctor Q]

Here we see how long the Top 50 forum members have been at MacRumors.

A dozen of us have been members over a decade, with 2 (Mr. Anderson and MacNut) now over 11 years. Mr. Anderson rarely posts so MacNut is therefore the longest active Top 50 forum member. arn has been active longer, of course, but he's been out of the Top 50 since early 2010.

None of the Top 50 have less than 2 years of membership, with only 1 (simsaladimbamba) below 3 years.

Since (by the Registration Agreement) you have to be at least 13 years old to join MacRumors, you have to be at least 15, and more likely 16, to make the Top 50. Sorry, middle-schoolers and high school freshman!

Years of Membership

click for the full-size graph

[ucfgrad93]

I always find these stats very interesting. Thanks for taking the time to do this, Doctor Q.

[Doctor Q]

This graph shows who has moved up and who has fallen behind. Nine of the Top 50 members stayed at the same rank as 6 months ago.

Fewer members gained than lost, but the gains were noticeably larger than the losses.

And in case you are curious, I'm not making consecutive posts in this thread to pad my post count and make up for my latest loss in rank. I just think it's easier to read the charts and explanations if they each have a post. I promise to refrain from posting from 4am to 5am tonite to make up for my overposting.

Interestingly, three of them have consecutive spots on the Top 50: active users Hellhammer and bartelby and retired user iGary held onto the #14/#15/#16 spots since 6 months ago. A year ago they were #13/#14/#15 in the same order.

Increase (or decrease) in rank

click for the full-size graph

[Rodimus Prime]

I always love reading these stats. It just shows you how much people post here and how alive these boards are.

[rhett7660]

Good lord 14+ posts a day. Wow!

Love reading these though. Keep up the good work Doctor Q!

[grapes911]

I love these threads. They always remind me to be thankful that I don't have a lot to say.

[obeygiant]

Originally Posted by Doctor Q

Here we see how long the Top 50 forum members have been at MacRumors.

A dozen of us have been members over a decade, with 2 (Mr. Anderson and MacNut) now over 11 years. Mr. Anderson rarely posts so MacNut is therefore the longest active Top 50 forum member. arn has been active longer, of course, but he's been out of the Top 50 since early 2010.

I never seem to make the lists..

[rdowns]

Originally Posted by Rodimus Prime

I always love reading these stats. It just shows you how much people post here and how alive these boards are.

Actually, they only show stats for 50 posters.

[Doctor Q]

Originally Posted by obeygiant

I never seem to make the lists..

And you should win an award for that. Somebody who listens more than talks!


This new graph shows the contrast between a guy who once posted wildly and then mostly stopped (Mr. Anderson) and a guy who has posted on a regular pace for years but never at a madcap pace (arn). If I kept a Top 100 then arn would be hoving between 50 and 60, as you can see.

Forum regulars know that arn tends to make succinct posts now and then to clarify news stories or to address forum issues. And of course he splits time between MacRumors and sister websites. Meanwhile, Mr. Anderson's 22,000 posts have kept him from falling quickly even thought he's off enjoying life in the real world.

Notice that Mr. Anderson's lowest-ever rank has finally dropped below arn's highest-ever rank since I've been keeping track.

Ranks Over Time

click for the full-size graph

[Rodimus Prime]

Originally Posted by rdowns

Actually, they only show stats for 50 posters.

It may only show the top 50 but the fact how active the top 50 are speaks volumes about everyone else.

[rdowns]

Originally Posted by Rodimus Prime

It may only show the top 50 but the fact how active the top 50 are speaks volumes about everyone else.

That's not true. The "Cur Rate" is very low for more than half the Top 50. Only 14 of the top 50 average more than 3 post per day.

What it shows, for the most part, are long term members, many no longer active, who still maintain their high ranking despite little or no ( 11 had zero posts and 10 average less than 1 post per day)) activity.

[Tilpots]

So with the new ranking systems, where does that put all of these members?

[Doctor Q]

Chart #2: 6-Month Projected Top 50 Posters

Computed by Doctor Q in January 2013

Proj  Projection      Proj    Cur   Delta
Rank  Jul 4, 2013     Posts   Rank  Rank
----  --------------- ------  ----  -----
  1   GGJstudios      41,762    1      0
  2   jessica.        33,752    3     +1
  3   mad jew         32,199    2     -1
  4   Doctor Q        32,050    4      0
  5   Applejuiced     30,104    7     +2
  6   mkrishnan       29,761    5     -1
  7   Eidorian        28,623    6     -1
  8   rdowns          25,853    8      0
  9   Abstract        24,278    9      0
 10   robbieduncan    23,704   10      0
 11   jsw             22,996   11      0
 12   Mr. Anderson    22,556   12      0
 13   Blue Velvet     21,867   13      0
 14   Hellhammer      21,615   14      0
 15   maflynn         20,649   24     +9
 16   miles01110      20,305   18     +2
 17   simsaladimbamba 19,876   26     +9
 18   Dagless         19,823   17     -1
 19   bartelby        19,797   15     -4
 20   iGary           19,583   16     -4
 21   Jaffa Cake      19,517   22     +1
 22   PlaceofDis      19,323   20     -2
 23   edesignuk       19,259   19     -4
 24   iBlue           19,197   21     -3
 25   alphaod         18,391   25      0

Proj  Projection      Proj    Cur   Delta
Rank  Jul 4, 2013     Posts   Rank  Rank
----  --------------- ------  ----  -----
 26   ~Shard~         18,325   23     -3
 27   MacDawg         18,140   28     +1
 28   MacNut          17,434   29     +1
 29   dukebound85     17,394   31     +2
 30   DoFoT9          17,240   27     -3
 31   KnightWRX       17,008   44    +13
 32   iJohnHenry      16,812   32      0
 33   wdlove          16,571   30     -3
 34   balamw          16,301   38     +4
 35   -aggie -        16,207   33     -2
 36   yellow          16,017   34     -2
 37   WildCowboy      15,767   36     -1
 38   sushi           15,704   35     -3
 39   devilot         15,591   37     -2
 40   Peace           15,544   41     +1
 41   Nermal          15,399   40     -1
 42   Surely          15,048   39     -3
 43   r.j.s           14,712   42     -1
 44   Sun Baked       14,667   43     -1
 45   twoodcc         14,457   45      0
 46   leekohler       14,368   46      0
 47   bousozoku       13,998   47      0
 48   Mitthrawnuruodo 13,558   48      0
 49   dejo            13,372  ---    ---
 50   yg17            13,178   50      0

Columns:

1. Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
   
2. Projection Jul 4, 2013 = members with the 50 highest projected post counts based on current post count and rate for the last 6 months.
   
3. Proj Posts = projected # of posts by that member.
   
4. Cur Rank = current rank, as of January 2013 (see Chart #1 above), or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
   
5. Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank over the next 6 months.

Observations

• dejo is the only user projected to join the Top 50.
  
  
• IJ Reilly is the only user projected to drop off the Top 50. However, I predicted the same thing 6 months ago and it didn't come to pass since IJ Reilly managed to hold on to the #49 slot.
  
  
• jessica. is projected to pass mad jew for the #2 slot.
  
  
• Applejuiced is projected to continue climbing, passing mkrishnan and Eidorian.
  
  
• At recent posting rates, jessica. will be caught by Applejuiced on May 14, 2014.
  
  
• No users are projected to join or leave the Top 10.
  
  
• maflynn and simsaladimbamba are projected to join the Top 20, bumping out PlaceofDis and edesignuk.
  
  
• The users in slots #8/#9/#10/#11/#12/#13/#14 are projected to retain them. They won't change order because the differences in their post rates aren't big enough to cover the existing spreads between their post counts. The same is true for the users in slots #45/#46/#47/#48.
  
  
• If I maintained a Top 100, arn would drop from #58 to #59.

[dukebound85]

How many banned users would still occupy a place in the top 50?

[simsaladimbamba]

Originally Posted by dukebound85

How many banned users would still occupy a place in the top 50?

I can think of one, but he was guested.

[jessica.]

Originally Posted by simsaladimbamba

I can think of one, but he was guested.

Wrong. Banned is banned. Guests are those who asked to be deactivated. They don't ban and then move to guest afaik.