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Apple Reports Best Quarterly Results Ever in Q1 2013: $13.1 Billion Profit on $54.5 Billion in Revenue [Call Ended]
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Apple stock is getting the CORRECTION if fully deserves.
YES Apple is a solid company with little risk going forward, but to value them as the worlds single largest company in history has and remains complete nonsense.
In September last year I posted on this forum several times how I was certain, when digging deeper into the actual numbers behind Apples recent success, that within 12 months time their shares would be worth half what they had been trading for.
Everyone attacked me and called me crazy, insisting they'd be $2000.00 or more within a year.
Well, hate to say I told you so... but well, we're getting close.
Don't believe me, then search my user name and ready my posts. 😉
YES Apple is a solid company with little risk going forward, but to value them as the worlds single largest company in history has and remains complete nonsense.
In September last year I posted on this forum several times how I was certain, when digging deeper into the actual numbers behind Apples recent success, that within 12 months time their shares would be worth half what they had been trading for.
Everyone attacked me and called me crazy, insisting they'd be $2000.00 or more within a year.
Well, hate to say I told you so... but well, we're getting close.
Don't believe me, then search my user name and ready my posts. 😉
Plutonius
macrumors G4
I'm not sure what you are talking about ? Are you afraid that Apple will stop repairing the computers they have sold ?
No, they're being held by the standing of P/E multiples and discounted future cash flow. Grow slowing = P/E contraction = lower stock price.
HobeSoundDarryl
macrumors G5
Stock price is the real value of owning shares of the company plus the (let's call it) hype hope of how much the company will grow. When the latter swells up rapidly, it's often referred to as a bubble. The hype hope blows the stock price up sky high. As with any bubble, it requires more and more hope-filled buyers to keep buying or the bubble will begin to deflate. If it deflates enough, the hope crowd starts shifting their hope somewhere else and sells. Selling makes others give up and sell and the bubble deflates more.
When the numbers stand on their own is when you get back to what the company shares are actually worth plus the most pessimistic views on the hype hope part of the equation. Then you have mostly real value represented in the stock price and relatively little hype hope.
In just the last few years, many of us have watched AAPL pump up from below $100 to $700. It's done that on some spectacular growth in both real value AND hype hope. Now some of that hype bubble is deflating. Real value is still substantially below this level. It will never fall all the way to real value, so those that are most pessimistic- but steadfast- won't see it fall all that way to that level. However, those looking for some major bounce needs to see the hype bubble start re-inflating again... or Apple needs to blow out everyone's best estimates for several quarters in a row so that both real value and the hype bubble rapidly grow.
To come in below many analysts high (and crazy high) expectations disappoints those suckered into the market on the hype hope that Apple really could perform that well. How many times must a sucker be disappointed before he sells is similar to how low will AAPL need to fall before someone decides to step out. That shift in sentiment when done by the crowd sometimes marks the approx. bottom for a stock. So if maybe this big drop moves enough people to really sell soon, you might get that "capitulation" event at which point it may be time for the buyers to start buying again. Unfortunately, capitulation is usually marked by the point where everyone seems to be bearish on the stock (everyone believing it is going to go lower from here); we don't have that yet (to many "great buying opportunity" stories/posts/comments by the hope hype crowd or those holding too much stock and can't bear to sell it now).
No matter how high a stock is and how much upside it has, when the buyers stop buying, it can't go any higher. No matter how low a stock falls and how much downside risk it seems to have, when the sellers stop selling it can't go any lower. Right now, AAPL seems to have people believing it is going to go lower. Until people willing to sell stop believing that, it will go lower unless more buyers step up and out-buy the selling. Real value of the shares is still way below this level.
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Peace
Cancelled
lunaoso
macrumors 65816
They probably would've shipped early IF the product was ready for market. Apple doesn't bring a product to market until it is ready design-wise. The major problem they experienced were manufacturing yields. How do you suppose they have handled that better? Hold the product and keep selling outdated tech? No.. they needed to accept the reality and conditions and get the product out as soon as they could. May not have been ideal circumstances, but better than not at all.
Greg.
macrumors 6502
The numbers ought to be already completely factored into a companies stock price. It is then the expectations of future earnings and cash flows that determines the value today and daily price changes. While $13bn seems huge, if the market had built $14bn into its expectations then they'll be a (downwards) correction. Expectations form a much bigger part of a companies stock market value than past and current financial information.
Bubba Satori
Suspended
Let me tell you a story.
Last fall when Apple plummeted 10% from $700 to $640 over a couple of months, someone on this forum advised people to take out HELOs and buy all the stock they could.
Apple just declined that much in a few hours.
What's my point? Don't get investment advice on MacRumors.
You're welcome.
Just remind yourself of these points:
- Apple would not settle for designing and building their own products using Windows.
- Apple will not bring Xcode to Windows.
- Apple will not lower their own internal standards.
- 4 million Macs sold in 3 MONTHS. That's a lot, even if it was a decline from the same quarter last year. It's not a trend, just a result of release delays/manufacturing issues.
Rocketman
macrumors 603
If you have a time frame measured in a year or more, this is pretty much a no-brainer. This is a gift. I measure gift by PE ratio. ~10. Scary-low.
I don't know what to say. I am totally paralyzed by these results. No one can have seen this coming!
I heard an analyst say a couple of days ago: "the distortion field is fading out with all Apple things"... so like it went to 700 without an actual reason, but speculation, then it goes down... so I guess ultimately the stock needs to correct itself and stay where it belongs, and will move based on "REAL" innovation, products, etc.
IJ Reilly
macrumors P6
Good question, but the stock market is an emotional animal, at least in the short run. I have a feeling that the markets will have an ah-hah moment at some point, when the multiples are calculated. At a PE under 10 (which I presume it must be now), AAPL is being priced for little or no growth.
My rule of thumb is Street plus 10%, or look out below. Seems to hold true year after year. And yet the magnitude of the reaction is surprising given that the markets had already priced in lower earnings growth rates.
Ya, so if iPhone 5 were only 50% of sales last quarter, it would be up around 23.5 million, add on the sales in the quarter before and iPhone 5, which has been available for 4 months, has sold nearly as many GS3's since the GS3 launch.
Troll harder.