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Original poster
Apr 12, 2001
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iphone_5_box-150x271.jpg


Earlier today, Apple officially announced sales of over five million iPhone 5 units during its launch weekend, easily topping the iPhone 4S debut from last year but falling short of many analysts' expectations.

ISI Group analyst Brian Marshall theorizes that the apparent shortfall compared to expectations may stem from Apple's rapid sellout of its own launch day pre-orders, which occurred in just about an hour. Apple announced two million pre-orders for the iPhone 5 in the first 24 hours of availability, a figure that was used by analysts to predict blockbuster opening weekend sales of 6-10 million units.

Marshall notes that many of those first-day pre-orders, as well as ones made after that date, have yet to be delivered, and thus Apple can not yet count them as sold. A brief "clarification" from Marshall reads:
[R]ecall the 5mil+ iPhone 5 reported sales only takes into consideration: 1) what was sold into partners (e.g., retail outlets, carriers, etc.), 2) sold in AAPL retail stores, and 3) direct to customers only if they signed for the device. Importantly, this doesn't take into consideration units in delivery direct to customers (i.e., AAPL must have signature of acceptance by customer before it is counted as a sale) and we estimate units in transit could be in the millions currently.
Some of those "late" iPhone 5 pre-orders through Apple that had been quoted delivery in early October have already begun shipping with estimated delivery dates of September 27. Those units will not, however, be counted as sales by Apple until they are delivered.

Update 7:13 AM: Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, who was responsible for the widely cited 6-10 million unit estimate, has released his own note expressing similar sentiments. He believes that up to a million iPhone 5 pre-orders remain in transit and notes that in-store supply was tighter for the iPhone 5 than for the iPhone 4S, holding back iPhone 5 sales numbers.
We believe there are two factors that negatively impacted the number. First, our sales expectation assumed that Apple would include all phones pre-ordered online. We believe that this may have been up to 1 million additional units as units pre-ordered after the middle of the first day were projected to be available in October. Second, we noted 1.25 days of Apple Retail inventory compared to 2.5 days during the 4S launch. Our 8 million estimate assumed full weekend availability and the counting of all online pre-orders. We believe that if supply were not a constraint and Apple included all pre-orders, the launch weekend number would have been closer to 7-8 million, assuming ~1 million October pre-order sales and an additional 1-2 million units at retail.

Article Link: Analyst Says Perhaps Millions of iPhone 5 Pre-Orders Still in Transit, Not Included in Announced Sales
 

Reddmanz

macrumors regular
Jul 23, 2010
169
0
Interesting they aren't trying to claim these units in the announcement. I bet a few other companies might...
 

Zunjine

macrumors 6502a
Jun 26, 2009
715
0
That makes sense. I don't think you can say something has been sold unless you've taken the money for it.
 

GroundLoop

macrumors 68000
Mar 21, 2003
1,582
62
must...keep...stake...in...apple...growing...

sounds like someone who is not too happy with his paper loss today...

GL
 

striker33

macrumors 65816
Aug 6, 2010
1,098
2
Hi. I'm an analyst. My initial figures were completely wrong, and as such, I am now correcting my initial prediction with a prediction.

I love being paid to tell lies.
 

jctevere

macrumors 6502
Feb 7, 2009
277
26
But... But... iPhone 5 was supposed to fail and flop?!?! Galaxy S 3 is better no? :confused:

Can't wait to see the Apple stock re-bound off this! :apple:

FYI: I'm ENTIRELY joking around.
 

bbplayer5

macrumors 68040
Apr 13, 2007
3,128
1,122
Android fanboy or not, this is impressive. Glad my iPhone 5 only had 2 tiny blemishes... Sharpie fixed them right up.
 

taltal

macrumors member
Jul 16, 2008
41
0
Wasn't also the set of countries different for the iPhone 4S? This could also impact sales figures.

In Switzerland, you can't even preorder the iPhone 5 as of today.
 

jonnysods

macrumors G3
Sep 20, 2006
8,396
6,836
There & Back Again
Wow. I guess to smash this record next year they need to announce it and then wait 2-3 weeks before pre-orders. Then they will have loads of them ready.
 

Beezzy

macrumors 6502
Apr 23, 2011
268
11
It makes sense, so technically that's 5 million iPhone 5 activated would be a better statement. Watch this number double by Friday.
 

polterbyte

macrumors 6502
Sep 24, 2012
353
538
Brazil
My question: why hasn't Apple already fixed those production/distribution problems? They keep breaking their own records with each product launch, and still get sell outs and repressed demands at each new one. Wouldn't it be logical for them to expect to sell more units, and thus prepare/manufacture/distribute them accordingly?

Anyway, well done once more, Apple. Here's hoping I can get mine by simply walking into a store by the second week of October.
 

cmChimera

macrumors 601
Feb 12, 2010
4,271
3,753
My question: why hasn't Apple already fixed those production/distribution problems? They keep breaking their own records with each product launch, and still get sell outs and repressed demands at each new one. Wouldn't it be logical for them to expect to sell more units, and thus prepare/manufacture/distribute them accordingly?

Anyway, well done once more, Apple. Here's hoping I can get mine by simply walking into a store by the second week of October.

It's simply impossible.
 

blorenz

macrumors newbie
Apr 14, 2008
25
1
this just shows you what db's analysts are, but we are even bigger ones for listening to them and letting them control the value our investments......

bl
 

phpmaven

macrumors 68040
Jun 12, 2009
3,465
522
San Clemente, CA USA
This story doesn't make any sense. Since when does any company not count sales until they are delivered? Credit cards are charged when orders are shipped. Do we really think that they are tracking each shipment and not counting the sale until its delivered? I'm not buying it. These analysts are just trying to come up with some way to cover their butts for being so far off on the numbers.
 

kas23

macrumors 603
Oct 28, 2007
5,629
288
It's simply impossible.

It's entirely possible. Take last years numbers, add on 1-2 million more units. Start production 1-2 weeks earlier. Even if they end up with a surplus after the weekend launch, it's not like they're not going to eventually sell them.
 
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