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Old Apr 11, 2013, 11:32 AM   #1
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Production Challenges to 'Delay' Launches of iPhone 5S, Lower-Cost iPhone and New iPad Mini?




Back in January, reliable KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo laid out a thorough roadmap of his expectations for Apple's product launches in 2013, pointing to a very busy third quarter for the company with launches for updated iPhone, iPad, iPod, and Mac notebook lines. As recently as last month, Kuo was targeting a June/July launch for the new iPhone models, with a version specific to China Mobile arriving a bit later in September.

Kuo has released a new report today indicating that a number of challenges appear to be pushing back the release of the new iPhone and iPad mini models relative to his previous predictions and general market consensus. As a result, Kuo believes that Apple's third quarter may see much smaller shipment growth than previously expected. Apple of course has not announced its launch plans, so any "delays" are relative to these market expectations and not necessarily Apple's internal plans.
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Earlier we estimated that shipments of the new iPhone would begin in July (FDD version) and September (TDD version), while iPad mini 2 would hit the market in August. Currently, market consensus for shipments of iPhone 5S, low-cost iPhone and iPad mini 2 is July, July, and August, respectively. But in light of publicly available information and our knowledge of technological trends, we now think all three products will begin shipments later than our previous expectation and market consensus.
Kuo does not provide a new specific target date for the launches of the updated models, instead laying out a series of three scenarios modeling how Apple's shipments could be affected based on August/September, September/October, and October/November timeframes.

As for details on the challenges facing Apple, Kuo lays out the following issues:

- Fingerprint sensor for iPhone 5S. Work on finding the right color coatings in order to prevent interference with the sensor offers a technical challenge for Apple, and software integration in iOS 7 will also require additional work.

- Color coatings for lower-cost iPhone. Apple's lower-cost iPhone has been rumored to be arriving with a plastic shell in a number of different colors, and Apple's efforts to keep the shell as thin as possible will likely lead to production ramping issues for coatings and surface treatments.

- iPad mini Retina display. Kuo expects the second-generation iPad mini to adopt a Retina display, and technical challenges related to its design and manufacture are likely to slow Apple's release timetable.

As a result of later-than-expected launches, Kuo currently predicts that Apple will see only single-digit growth of total iPhone/iPad shipments year-over-year for the third quarter of 2013, far below current market expectations of 30-40% growth.

Kuo's report comes as Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty has released her own report projecting new iPhone launches for September following an iOS 7 preview at Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC) expected in June. Huberty projects that Apple will show off a new "killer app" such as mobile wallet at WWDC, with the new iPhone and iPad hardware following several months later.

Article Link: Production Challenges to 'Delay' Launches of iPhone 5S, Lower-Cost iPhone and New iPad Mini?
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Old Apr 11, 2013, 11:33 AM   #2
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Can't wait!!!
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Old Apr 11, 2013, 11:35 AM   #3
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"Reliable analyst" made me lol.
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Old Apr 11, 2013, 11:37 AM   #4
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Might as well wait till 2014 and just release the iPhone 6.

Totally skip the iPhone 5S!
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Old Apr 11, 2013, 11:37 AM   #5
Tiger8
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T-Mobile factor

Even if Production of 5s is okay, I think it's safe to assume 5S WILL NOT be released in the summer, simply because T-Mo just got the 5.

Remember when Apple delayed the 4s to October 2011 since Verizon got the 4 in Feb of that year?
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Old Apr 11, 2013, 11:40 AM   #6
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Hopefully it's not as bad as lamination issues on the iMac or *gasp* Mac Pro issues.
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Old Apr 11, 2013, 11:42 AM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiger8 View Post
Even if Production of 5s is okay, I think it's safe to assume 5S WILL NOT be released in the summer, simply because T-Mo just got the 5.

Remember when Apple delayed the 4s to October 2011 since Verizon got the 4 in Feb of that year?
I feel like Verizon is a premier carrier and T mob is just thanksfuo they have any iPhone.
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Old Apr 11, 2013, 11:42 AM   #8
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Hmmm,

I would be very surprised if all of this had taken Apple by surprise! They work on products well in advance of it becoming available to us, for issues to affect multiple products across the range and create a delay in releases is highly unlikely. The release date will be the date that has always been intended....
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Old Apr 11, 2013, 11:43 AM   #9
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Phew, thanks for the update.

I was worried that Apple wouldn't refresh at an annual pace and sell products. Glad these analysts helped me out with numbers and things.
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Old Apr 11, 2013, 11:44 AM   #10
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So in other words new iPhone 5S and cheap iPhone 1st quarter 2014?

Why not just wait until Apple announces it before you all start to speculate?

Will be interesting to see what Apple does next year since now Samsung is coming out with two new phones, one with a 5.8" and the other with 6.3" screens, however having owned a Note II, I think anything over 4.7-5.0" is way too big
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Old Apr 11, 2013, 11:46 AM   #11
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Kuo prediction has always been spot on.

So the 5S in september, we usually can predict when apple introduce the iOS 7 beta to developers. If the ios 7 introduce in wwdc, september launch is plausible.
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Old Apr 11, 2013, 11:47 AM   #12
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Kuo was right about the entire fall lineup, and so far was completely right this year as well as Apple has done relatively nothing.

Seems to make complete sense given the other rumors.

Very curious to see how Apple will redesign the Retina Pro's given their recent introduction. Assume its a minor different, but still should be something.
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Old Apr 11, 2013, 11:50 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tiger8 View Post
Even if Production of 5s is okay, I think it's safe to assume 5S WILL NOT be released in the summer, simply because T-Mo just got the 5.

Remember when Apple delayed the 4s to October 2011 since Verizon got the 4 in Feb of that year?
Do you have any proof that the 4S was "delayed" because of the Verizon iPhone 4?

I'm skeptical first because I don't see how it justifies a "delay", and second because the number of subscriber of a single carrier in a single country is insignificant to the total number of iPhones sold worldwide.

All U.S. iPhone sales don't even account for half the worldwide sales, and they're divided between 3 major carriers (now 4), plus some smaller carriers.

T-Mobile will probably get something like 5% of worldwide iPhone sales this year. So even assuming the T-Mo iPhone 5 could, for some arbitrary reason, delay the release of the iPhone 5S, it still wouldn't make sense to delay such a huge product launch for only 5% of your market.
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Old Apr 11, 2013, 11:52 AM   #14
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I don't care when 5S gets released but the delayed release of 5S means delayed release of iOS 7, and this, I do care about.
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Old Apr 11, 2013, 11:56 AM   #15
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so that means iOS7 will be delayed as well?! ughhh
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Old Apr 11, 2013, 11:57 AM   #16
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  • Mac Pro - Delayed (for years)
  • iTunes 11 - Was Delayed
  • iOS 7 - Delayed
  • iPhone 5S - Delayed
  • Retina iPad Mini - Delayed
  • Low-Cost iPhone - Delayed

Anything else I'm forgetting?
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Old Apr 11, 2013, 11:58 AM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gmanist1000 View Post
  • Mac Pro - Delayed (for years)
  • iOS 7 - Delayed
  • iPhone 5S - Delayed
  • Retina iPad Mini - Delayed
  • Low-Cost iPhone - Delayed

Anything else I'm forgetting?
OS X 10.9 is probably delayed too if you expected an exact 1 year cycle. And the iTV, according to Gene Munster anyway.
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Old Apr 11, 2013, 12:00 PM   #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gmanist1000 View Post
  • Mac Pro - Delayed (for years)
  • iTunes 11 - Was Delayed
  • iOS 7 - Delayed
  • iPhone 5S - Delayed
  • Retina iPad Mini - Delayed
  • Low-Cost iPhone - Delayed

Anything else I'm forgetting?
Your post was a little late ...
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Old Apr 11, 2013, 12:00 PM   #19
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who cares about fingerprint sensor

Come on Apple! Please, please I hope that this supposed fingerprint sensor is NOT the supposed "killer feature" (a la Siri). Give me a bigger screen and WIDER one while you're at it.
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Old Apr 11, 2013, 12:02 PM   #20
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There are always production challenges.
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Old Apr 11, 2013, 12:03 PM   #21
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Killer app... Wallet? Yeah that's a killer app!
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Old Apr 11, 2013, 12:05 PM   #22
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Originally Posted by Nathan20 View Post
Can't wait!!!
A new iPhone without haptic feedback will be nothing more than a boring failure - let's hope Apple implements it.
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Old Apr 11, 2013, 12:08 PM   #23
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Mac Pro will be released after iPhone 5S.

iPhone 5S delayed.

Maybe they just don't wanna say the Pro is delayed anymore.
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Old Apr 11, 2013, 12:09 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chumburro2U View Post
Come on Apple! Please, please I hope that this supposed fingerprint sensor is NOT the supposed "killer feature" (a la Siri). Give me a bigger screen and WIDER one while you're at it.
Wow, a bigger, wider screen. How innovative. Nobody has done that before. That'll sure send AAPL through the roof!
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Old Apr 11, 2013, 12:10 PM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gmanist1000 View Post
  • Mac Pro - Delayed (for years)
  • iTunes 11 - Was Delayed
  • iOS 7 - Delayed
  • iPhone 5S - Delayed
  • Retina iPad Mini - Delayed
  • Low-Cost iPhone - Delayed

Anything else I'm forgetting?
Macbook Air refreshing - Delayed
WWDC - Delayed
iSpaceShip - Delayed
iRadio Service - Delayed

Anything else?
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