Macworld San Francisco 2008 Rumor Wrapup: Winners and Losers

[MacRumors]

After each major event, MacRumors provides a wrapup of rumors to reveal the sources of the most accurate (or inaccurate) information.

MacBook Air

As always, rumors closer to the event tend to be more accurate and more revealing than those in the months ahead. In this case, many of the details of the MacBook Air were spot on, though many of these details were revealed in the week leading up to the event.

Our own MacBook Air Whispers article confirmed some long standing details, including a 13.3" screen, external optical drive, and was the first to dub the machine the "MacBook Air". Our other hints also suggested the use of a 1.8" hard drive and an ethernet dongle due to the slim size of the upcoming laptop, and the inclusion of a multitouch trackpad -- all of which also turned out to be true.

Finally, an actual description of the MacBook Air leaked out the night before the Keynote on Wired's Gadget Blog, with a description of an "unbelievably thin" design with tapering edges.

Meanwhile, the longer standing rumors for the ultra-portable MacBook came from multiple sources which were summarized in our Ultra-portable Rumor Roundup. In the end, Appleinsider provided the most accurate description: 13", aluminum, 50% lighter, Slim, NAND Flash, LED backlit, No Optical Drive. In the end, NAND flash ended up being an optional feature, but the remainder of the report as well as long lead time made their report particularly impressive.

Of note, CNBC's rumors of the ultra-portable Mac were far less accurate, despite being a mainstream news site. CNBC's Jim Goldman had cited "a very good source" and described a 12" model with NAND Flash only at $1500 -- all of which were wrong.

Other honorable mentions include 9to5mac's "something strange about the touchpad", and MacScoop's early ultra-portable report. Also of interest is a report coming out of CrunchGear in October claiming that Apple would be releasing Multitouch trackpad MacBooks. Despite the wrong timeframe, with the release of a Multitouch trackpad, we should give credit to this early rumor.

Apple TV

Despite much speculation of a possible Apple TV update, few credible rumors of what to expect from an Apple TV upgrade came out in the weeks ahead of Macworld. Businessweek was the only one to suggest that the Apple TV would see a major upgrade but no details or timeframe was provided. CrunchGear, however, did claim in that HD content was coming to the Apple TV (though they claimed October).

iTunes Rentals

FinancialTimes, Variety and Businessweek served as the major sources of information about Apple's new movie rental service. Word first leaked out in June with reports that Apple was negotiating terms for iTunes movie rentals. Subsequent reports pinpointed the $3.99/24 hour rental window as well as the wide participation of many studios.

iPhone 1.1.3

One of the biggest Apple leaks leading into this year's Macworld was the leak of the iPhone 1.1.3 firmware which was revealed by GearLive. As always, the leaked video and screenshots generated the usual doubts, but it turned out to be quite accurate. This leak of pre-release firmware is the biggest Apple leak in recent history.

Meanwhile, MacScoop's widely publicized rumor that 1.1.3 would get Copy/Paste functionality turned out to be inaccurate. And CNET France's early claim 1.1.3 would contain Disk Mode and Voice Recording was also wrong.

Other Winners/Losers

Winners: Digitimes 13.3" LED Screens
Losers: Goldman Sachs Analyst: Apple TV with LCD display, American Technology Research Analyst: Blu Ray at Macworld, All "leaked" keynote claims, All "leaked" spy shots.

Summary

Dedicated Apple rumors sites such as MacRumors and Appleinsider continue to provide the most accurate look at what's to come from Apple, though an expanding number of sites are able to fill in additional details. Patent applications can certainly point the way to what Apple might be working on (multitouch) but should not be taken for granted (iMac docking station). Anonymously leaked transcripts and photos remain almost always fake.

What's to Come: MacBook Pros, Mini Tablet

In looking back at the sources of the most accurate rumors, we also find enticing reports of items that didn't come true at Macworld, but did come from credible sources.

The MacBook Pro updates are certainly coming -- and soon. Even without our rumor sources, the MacBook Pros are simply due for refresh. But the most interesting tidbit is that there have been reliable reports that the Pro machines will incorporate Apple's new multi-touch trackpad.

Given Appleinsider's accuracy with their ultra-portable report, it is increasingly likely that we will see a mini-tablet device coming from Apple. Apple is said to be working on a multi-touch OS X device about 1.5x the size of the iPhone with a 720x480 screen. Initial reports had suggested the possibility of a Macworld launch, but was delayed and may instead be seen later this year.

Article Link

[samh004]

What was surprising were the rumours that came out the night before, they were spot-on and must of been leaks from people setting up the stuff there. And no I can't remember where I saw them exactly, somewhere on the site, but they were right about processor etc... 1.6/1.8

[aswitcher]

Originally Posted by MacRumors

What's to Come: MacBook Pros, Mini Tablet

In looking back at the sources of the most accurate rumors, we also find enticing reports of items that didn't come true at Macworld, but did come from credible sources.

The MacBook Pro updates are certainly coming -- and soon. Even without our rumor sources, the MacBook Pros are simply due for refresh. But the most interesting tidbit is that there have been reliable reports that the Pro machines will incorporate Apple's new multi-touch trackpad.

Given Appleinsider's accuracy with their ultra-portable report, it is increasingly likely that we will see a mini-tablet device coming from Apple. Apple is said to be working on a multi-touch OS X device about 1.5x the size of the iPhone with a 720x480 screen. Initial reports had suggested the possibility of a Macworld launch, but was delayed and may instead be seen later this year.

Article Link

MBPs gotta have the new trackpad. I can also imagine a SSD option will come out just for pure speed, heat and battery life - and safer data.

Pad would rock. I wonder how much though given the pricing of the touch. My guess is maybe twice as much which would make it a fairly exclusive item, especially if its not running a full copy Leopard.

I wonder if CNBC actually do have a valid leak and that a 12" MB will appear, not as sleek, heavier, only 32GB SSD, less battery life, designed as a go anywhere machine with students, geeks and business people in mind. Probably just wishful thinking.

[deathshrub]

Originally Posted by MacRumors

Of note, CNBC's rumors of the ultra-portable Mac were far less accurate, despite being a mainstream news site. CNBC's Jim Goldman had cited "a very good source" and described a 12" model with NAND Flash only at $1500 -- all of which were wrong.

What a shock.

[joefinan]

"The MacBook Pro updates are certainly coming -- and soon."

Really? How can they be sure of this (this is Mac RUMOURS after all....!)?

[FightTheFuture]

Originally Posted by joefinan

Really? How can they be sure of this (this is Mac RUMOURS after all....!)?

i have a feeling they will be updated to 2.6GHz with an option of 2.8GHz. much like they are now at 2.4/2.6Ghz. it'll most likely just be a speed bump and the only release note you'll get is from apple themselves (ie. the "Harpertown" Mac Pros from a few weeks ago). Dell & HP are already using the 2.8GHz chips in their higher end notebook line.

i also feel that they'll change the keyboard on the MBP. its the only product in their line that still uses the finger-grooved keys. the MacBook, MacBook Air and apple keyboard are basically all the same form. i hope it gets changed to an aluminum flat-key form! my typing speed has changed dramatically from the updated keyboard.

[joefinan]

Originally Posted by FightTheFuture

i hope it gets changed to an aluminum flat-key form! my typing speed has changed dramatically from the updated keyboard.

So are you saying you prefer the new keyboards to the old PB/MBP keyboards?

[CountPollen]

Hi,
If you listen to what Steve says in his keynote, all macbooks will get the large trackpad: "large multi-gesture trackpad like all our other macs".
So, indeed a pretty reliable source.
Also, I hope that they will give you the option of choosing the nvidia 8800 mobile graphics card (as it is now present in the mac pro).

[samh004]

Originally Posted by aswitcher

I wonder if CNBC actually do have a valid leak and that a 12" MB will appear, not as sleek, heavier, only 32GB SSD, less battery life, designed as a go anywhere machine with students, geeks and business people in mind. Probably just wishful thinking.

Didn't Steve say they went through a lot of designs before finally getting the one we have now, perhaps they were privy to one of the older designs. I'd imagine there were many many prototypes.

[macduke]

Originally Posted by FightTheFuture

i have a feeling they will be updated to 2.6GHz with an option of 2.8GHz. much like they are now at 2.4/2.6Ghz. it'll most likely just be a speed bump and the only release note you'll get is from apple themselves (ie. the "Harpertown" Mac Pros from a few weeks ago). Dell & HP are already using the 2.8GHz chips in their higher end notebook line.

i also feel that they'll change the keyboard on the MBP. its the only product in their line that still uses the finger-grooved keys. the MacBook, MacBook Air and apple keyboard are basically all the same form. i hope it gets changed to an aluminum flat-key form! my typing speed has changed dramatically from the updated keyboard.

Well, right now the base model MBP is 2.2ghz. The 2.6 ghz option was added in the fall as a simple release note. They wouldn't do this back to back. The MBP is due for a true update. They will incorporate the multitouch trackpad because they are the top tier product. I have a feeling they will be out in a few months and also have 128gb SSD options at a ridiculous price for those professionals who want it. Also new Nvidia 9xxx series chips come out in Feb I believe. I hope that they introduce that rumored gunmetal black finish. Perhaps by then Apple can agree on Blu-Ray drives since the major studios are going that way now. Hurry up Apple I've been waiting (obsessing) for a MBP update before buying my first mac!

As a side note...anyone else enjoying the true multitouch keyboard found in the 1.1.3 update? Didn't take me any time at all to type this! My thumbs are on fire now 40+ wpm on iPhone typing test!

[beetsman]

where was the ethernet dongle that turned out to be true?

[arn]

Originally Posted by beetsman

where was the ethernet dongle that turned out to be true?

apple store:

[gwarth]

Originally Posted by beetsman

where was the ethernet dongle that turned out to be true?

http://store.apple.com/1-800-MY-APPL...ethernet%20air
This one.

Cheers,
G

[aswitcher]

Originally Posted by arn

apple store:

I am a bit annoyed they haven't made this dongle work with all recent Macs. Might be a handy thing to have around if a hub cant be found or a machines ethernet is playing up.

[TheSpecialist]

Interesting article. I can remember an article here on MacRumors that Apple was buying up alot of LED 13,3 inch screens, which turned out to be true. Impressive.

[bobrik]

What about Europe rumors? Remember Apple inviting European media to London to watch the keynote live, and surprisingly no Europe-specific announcement there (like EU-wide iTunes or Apple Store)? Anyone with new information about this?

[aswitcher]

Originally Posted by samh004

Didn't Steve say they went through a lot of designs before finally getting the one we have now, perhaps they were privy to one of the older designs. I'd imagine there were many many prototypes.

In the interview I saw he said something like a hundred designs to get the MBA. So yes it could be. Still the MBA is pretty different from a 12"MBP, enough to find its own niche? Maybe not.

I think the best I can hope for is the new MBPs have
- big trackpad
- new keyboard, maybe still alu coloured but I doubt it.
- new power adapter config
- magnetic latch
- led screen update (?)

- a sleeker and slightly lighter all alu shell to replace this rather dated design
- better specs and battery life
- maybe the same micro-dvi - but since its a dual-dvi now I doubt it. Maybe they will toss in a hdmi instead
- SSD option


For those wanting the 12" I think the next MB update is your best bet if you dont like the MBA compromises. The MB should get much the same, maybe even the same micro not mini dvi to bring line consistency

[illitrate23]

Originally Posted by aswitcher

- a sleeker and slightly lighter all alu shell to replace this rather dated design

i've seen a lot of people say that they _have_ to change the design of the mbp because it is so dated.... but just because it is dated, doesn't make it broken. it's still the nicest looking laptop from any manufacturer isn't it?
sure the old adage, if it ain't broke.... applies here?

that said, i'll now invalidate my above statement because from the look of the subtle changes to the ipod classic design, the shape of the ipod nano and the ipod touch, the thinner edges and angles were then replicated in the design of the Air - so i can see the MBP losing the rounded edges to get slightly more angled versions.

[nitrokev]

I wonder how many of these rumours are from actual source and how many are just people making educated guesses.

I could say that Cinema Displays will be released with built in iSights in late spring, but that doesn't make it a rumour.

[Di9it8]

Originally Posted by illitrate23

it's still the nicest looking laptop from any manufacturer isn't it?
sure the old adage, if it ain't broke.... applies here?

Its interesting the MacBook Air is produced in aluminium, I guess for strength/weight/heat conductivity which is why the Powerbook/MacBook Pro design has lasted.
The cost of the flash drives, $1000 premium will come down very fast now so I think we will see the large trackpad/flashdrive/fast graphics card MBP very soon.

[joemama]

Originally Posted by joefinan

"The MacBook Pro updates are certainly coming -- and soon."

Really? How can they be sure of this (this is Mac RUMOURS after all....!)?

Yeah, this is what I want to know as well. My wife's Powerbook is down for the count, and was going to buy a MBP in the next day or so.

Should I wait, and question is, any idea (according to Apple's history) when we might see the new MPB?

[MrCrowbar]

Originally Posted by FightTheFuture

i have a feeling they will be updated to 2.6GHz with an option of 2.8GHz. much like they are now at 2.4/2.6Ghz. it'll most likely just be a speed bump and the only release note you'll get is from apple themselves (ie. the "Harpertown" Mac Pros from a few weeks ago). Dell & HP are already using the 2.8GHz chips in their higher end notebook line.

i also feel that they'll change the keyboard on the MBP. its the only product in their line that still uses the finger-grooved keys. the MacBook, MacBook Air and apple keyboard are basically all the same form. i hope it gets changed to an aluminum flat-key form! my typing speed has changed dramatically from the updated keyboard.

Agreed. I type a lot faster on the MAcbook keys,to, also got myself the new weireless keyboard for when I hook the Macbook up to a n external display. Here's probably what you're looking for (mockup):

12" Macbook Pro

[Roller]

Originally Posted by aswitcher

I wonder if CNBC actually do have a valid leak and that a 12" MB will appear, not as sleek, heavier, only 32GB SSD, less battery life, designed as a go anywhere machine with students, geeks and business people in mind. Probably just wishful thinking.

I'd be shocked if Apple released a 12" MBP (although I'd buy one in an instant). It would just further muddy the waters in their laptop line and cannibalize sales from the MBA, which hasn't had time to gain traction (which it may never do).

I think that a multi-touch trackpad like the MBA's is a given and a new keyboard is highly likely. SSD? Maybe as a BTO option, possibly as a second drive. The problem with an SSD as the only drive is the current high premium even for a 64 GB drive, which is small for a MBP. Prices will be much lower by this time next year, I expect, but not soon enough.

Unless Apple has come up with some other case material that we haven't seen before, I think they'll stick with aluminum, maybe rounding it off a little bit. (There's a limit to what they can do and still include an optical drive, which I don't think they'll drop yet.)

[leechlife]

Originally Posted by Roller

I think that a multi-touch trackpad like the MBA's is a given and a new keyboard is highly likely. SSD? Maybe as a BTO option, possibly as a second drive. The problem with an SSD as the only drive is the current high premium even for a 64 GB drive, which is small for a MBP. Prices will be much lower by this time next year, I expect, but not soon enough.

mmh, i'd love ssd, but not at the current price. A very nice thing in the middle would be just a 10gb onboard flash just for the os, to have the fast boot.

but i realy hope the new keyboard is part of the next macpro revision. I really like it. So my main reason to wait before I buy is I do not like the current keyboard on the mbp.

But it is a bit a pity that there aren't any specific rumors about the macbook pro updates. I mean, there was soo much information on the macbook air and also very accurate. And for the mbp, nearly nothing?

That does not create much hope for anything happening soon. (though i really hope that this is wrong)


cheers

[basqarl]

I just wish I/we had a better prediction of the when for the MBP. My old Dell Inspiron 8500 is dying. I am at the point now where it does not make sense to spring for the MBP because of necessity, but I've been wanting to change to Mac for 6 months now and my current laptop can barely chug out photos, open files, etc.

In addition, I work in special education (public school) and although I have a PC at work, it's slow and not in the greatest of shape either. When I work at home after school, I want to develop lessons/teaching materials that include the visuals (embedded video, photos, etc.) to meet our students' needs. I want it to be portable because I plan to bring it to work, too.

The main reason for my wait is for the reduced heating issue to come in the update; I will be doing so much with graphics and video that the current laptop may end up with overheating issues, and given my finances, I need my new laptop to last as long as possible.