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iLog.Genius

macrumors 601
Feb 24, 2009
4,909
452
Toronto, Ontario
I don't know man. You have Peyton on a team with an actual defense. Houston looks like they could go all the way and then there's Baltimore who outplayed Brady/Patriots last year. It's very possible for Brady to lose back/back SB's and become a 3-time loser at the same time. Oh yeah, add in the other Manning who just can't lose against the Patriots. Any other year you could say Patriots have to be the favourite of the AFC and win it but not this year.
 

63dot

macrumors 603
Jun 12, 2006
5,269
339
norcal
Jim Kelly lost 4 (25, 26, 27, 28).
John Elway lost 3 (21, 22, 24).
Fran Tarkenton lost 3 (8, 9, 11).

That's right, I was just thinking of the two he lost back to back to the same team (Dallas) and no matter how great you are, it has to hurt to lose the Super Bowl twice to the same team. While I think in some ways Kelly was better than Aikman as a quarterback, Aikman won both those contests. On top of that to lose twice in a row in two years to same team has to be unthinkable.

I just can't picture Brady losing again, especially having won his first three Super Bowls in a span of just four years. If Brady does lose a third, I would almost forget the three wins and see him as a three time SB loser and as somebody who pissed off the football gods. Yes, it sucks to lose 3 or 4 and never win one, but to lose three times (even two times as last two appearances as Brady has already done in recent years) after having won first three tries is just painful beyond words. What if Montana had won three Super Bowls and then lost his last two? What if Bradshaw won three and lost two after that? And if Brady loses a third time to Eli (a questionable nominee as an "elite" quarterback), it would have to rank up there as Boston's worse curse next to all the years the Yankees owned them in the American League.

But how can I say "curse"? Well, the Boston Red Sox had World Series wins in the early days of baseball and were already a great baseball team before they had that dreadful Bambino curse and became the most choke-worthy team in all of sports. Some may say Brady is already cursed having been a three time winner, then set off to get a fourth in a row like his idol Joe Montana, but instead turned around and lost two to the (some say) hapless New York Giants. It's hard to believe the Patriots lost even one Super Bowl to the Giants.

Nobody in their right mind thinks Eli "owns" Tom in the QB position but if the Giants, this year a long shot for Super Bowl appearance, beat the Patriots then there's no getting around negative comparisons even if they are never on the field at the same time. Tom doesn't have all the time left in the world and Super Bowl appearances don't come along to any team that often and even less to a single player. The way Brady can make us forget the two hurtful losses would be to get into the Super Bowl again against Eli and the Giants and proceed to blow them out by at least three touchdowns.

That being said Brady is HoF material if there ever was somebody so deserving and can easily be put in same sentence as Peyton Manning in his generation, and Montana, Marino, and Favre for all time greatest in stats.
 
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iLog.Genius

macrumors 601
Feb 24, 2009
4,909
452
Toronto, Ontario
Patriots biggest problem? Pass defense. If you look at current playoff seeds (and assuming they remain the same), 4 out of the 6 have highly capable passing games (Falcons, Packers, Bears, Giants). No one is going to worry about Brady (unless they play the Giants again :D), but that defense, not something I'd feel comfortable with against those 4 teams and the QB's.
 

zioxide

macrumors 603
Dec 11, 2006
5,737
3,726
I don't know man. You have Peyton on a team with an actual defense. Houston looks like they could go all the way and then there's Baltimore who outplayed Brady/Patriots last year. It's very possible for Brady to lose back/back SB's and become a 3-time loser at the same time. Oh yeah, add in the other Manning who just can't lose against the Patriots. Any other year you could say Patriots have to be the favourite of the AFC and win it but not this year.

Houston looks good but their 11-1 record is kind of deceiving, they lucked out big time in a couple of games and their pass defense has been shredded multiple times this season by Rodgers, Stafford, etc. They would be a good matchup for the Patriots but without Cushing their defense has looked much more vulnerable and it would be tough for them to stop Brady.

Baltimore always plays the Patriots tough but they are without Ray Lewis and Ladarius Webb so it's not the same team as last year.

Patriots already beat Denver once and have proved multiple times that they can put up points on Denver's defense. Denver would have a chance if they hosted this game but if it's in Foxboro the Patriots should win it.

Patriots biggest problem? Pass defense. If you look at current playoff seeds (and assuming they remain the same), 4 out of the 6 have highly capable passing games (Falcons, Packers, Bears, Giants). No one is going to worry about Brady (unless they play the Giants again :D), but that defense, not something I'd feel comfortable with against those 4 teams and the QB's.

Have you been watching? The defense is visibly getting better every week. Since we added Talib and Gregory returned from injury the secondary has improved and become much deeper. The Pats are in as good of a position as any team could hope for at this point and now they need to focus on staying healthy and trying to wrap up a first round bye.

Houston and San Francisco games coming up will be a really good benchmark for them.

That being said Brady is HoF material if there ever was somebody so deserving and can easily be put in same sentence as Peyton Manning in his generation, and Montana, Marino, and Favre for all time greatest in stats.

With all due respect to Peyton Manning, he doesn't belong in the same sentence as Brady. Brady has the better stats and more hardware. Brady and Montana are in a class above everyone else.
 

63dot

macrumors 603
Jun 12, 2006
5,269
339
norcal
With all due respect to Peyton Manning, he doesn't belong in the same sentence as Brady. Brady has the better stats and more hardware. Brady and Montana are in a class above everyone else.

It's get to be nitpicking, but honestly either Brady, Montana, Favre, P. Manning, or Marino could all be argued as best overall person at the position of quarterback, ever. You can't just count Super Bowl wins, either. I don't think an Eli Manning is "twice" as good as Peyton Manning or Steve Young. I don't think Brad Johnson is better because of his SB over the likes of big game SB losers Fran Tartkenton or Jim Kelly.

Brady, well he's Tom Brady with 5 freakin' SB appearances, almost perennial postseason status and long strings of no interceptions and many consecutive wins

Montana is the absolute master of making something out of nothing

Favre not only has great numbers, but great longevity and stayed relevant with leading numbers and as starter at an older age than anybody

Peyton threw for so many touchdowns and yards, and all in record time on a lot of stats

Marino was consistently good and his rack of TDs in '84 was off the hook. When asked who was the best ever a few years ago, Joe Montana named Dan Marino but a slight bit ahead of Otto Graham who was the king of his sport in his day.

You have to also look at how these guys stack up in the style of play in their day and how they did against their peers. Nothing is more evident with this than in baseball where Babe Ruth (though not as many HRs as Bonds or Aaron, OK) was so far ahead of his peers in his day that some say there will never be another one. Same can be said about Willie Mays. I think if there was ever a perfect regular season for a QB, I would have to put Marino in '84 up there as wiping out anybody else. Remember if you tossed 20 TDs in that era, it was pretty darn good. Just imagine how many TDs Marino would put up if he was a QB in today's pass happy offenses!

http://blogcritics.org/sports/article/the-five-greatest-nfl-quarterbacks-of/page-3/

http://www.rantsports.com/nfl/2011/...cord-but-marinos-1984-season-still-best-ever/
 
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iLog.Genius

macrumors 601
Feb 24, 2009
4,909
452
Toronto, Ontario
Houston looks good but their 11-1 record is kind of deceiving, they lucked out big time in a couple of games and their pass defense has been shredded multiple times this season by Rodgers, Stafford, etc. They would be a good matchup for the Patriots but without Cushing their defense has looked much more vulnerable and it would be tough for them to stop Brady.

Baltimore always plays the Patriots tough but they are without Ray Lewis and Ladarius Webb so it's not the same team as last year.

Patriots already beat Denver once and have proved multiple times that they can put up points on Denver's defense. Denver would have a chance if they hosted this game but if it's in Foxboro the Patriots should win it.



Have you been watching? The defense is visibly getting better every week. Since we added Talib and Gregory returned from injury the secondary has improved and become much deeper. The Pats are in as good of a position as any team could hope for at this point and now they need to focus on staying healthy and trying to wrap up a first round bye.

And you don't think Denver has? All I'm saying is that Brady and the Patriots don't have a free pass to the Super Bowl like everyone thinks they do. We can go look up stats/situations/games (like losing to Seattle is a tell, but it isn't...) but the AFC is pretty tough this year same with the NFC. Like I said, any other year I would agree with you but not this year. It's no longer "New England should win..." it's going to be a tough road to the Super Bowl in the AFC and should be equally the same in the Super Bowl.
 

zioxide

macrumors 603
Dec 11, 2006
5,737
3,726
tru dat. although peyton is an Hof'er.
;)

No doubt about that, but he's not Tom Brady.


It's get to be nitpicking, but honestly either Brady, Montana, Favre, P. Manning, or Marino could all be argued as best overall person at the position of quarterback, ever. You can't just count Super Bowl wins, either. I don't think an Eli Manning is "twice" as good as Peyton Manning or Steve Young. I don't think Brad Johnson is better because of his SB over the likes of big game SB losers Fran Tartkenton or Jim Kelly.

Brady, well he's Tom Brady with 5 freakin' SB appearances, almost perennial postseason status and long strings of no interceptions and many consecutive wins

Montana is the absolute master of making something out of nothing

Favre not only has great numbers, but great longevity and stayed relevant with leading numbers and as starter at an older age than anybody

Peyton threw for so many touchdowns and yards, and all in record time on a lot of stats

Marino was consistently good and his rack of TDs in '84 was off the hook. When asked who was the best ever a few years ago, Joe Montana named Dan Marino but a slight bit ahead of Otto Graham who was the king of his sport in his day.

You have to also look at how these guys stack up in the style of play in their day and how they did against their peers. Nothing is more evident with this than in baseball where Babe Ruth (though not as many HRs as Bonds or Aaron, OK) was so far ahead of his peers in his day that some say there will never be another one. Same can be said about Willie Mays. I think if there was ever a perfect regular season for a QB, I would have to put Marino in '84 up there as wiping out anybody else. Remember if you tossed 20 TDs in that era, it was pretty darn good. Just imagine how many TDs Marino would put up if he was a QB in today's pass happy offenses!

I agree. It's definitely hard to compare players across different eras. But, of the five guys you listed, Montana and Brady are just on another level. Favre was very good but never great, and most of his numbers are due to his longevity more than an extremely high level of play. Marino never winning anything definitely hurts his case.

As far as Peyton vs Brady, a few years ago the argument was always "Peyton has the stats and Brady has the rings." But that's not the case anymore. Other than some of the career statistics that Peyton has mostly because he's played two more seasons, Brady has just as many if not more records. Career QB rating, touchdown to interception ratio, winning percentage, division titles, AFC championships, Super Bowl wins, Super Bowl MVPs, even head-to-head matchups: Brady leads in every category.

There's three things that are pretty telling that at least in my opinion seal the argument for Brady (maybe not as GOAT, but at least best QB of this generation).

1) Even in the years that Peyton statistically had an edge over Brady when you look at the season as a whole, when you break it down with the splits, you can see that Brady was still better. Brady has better numbers when you play home, away, in a dome, outside, in the heat, in the cold, in nice weather, in the rain, in the snow, in the sleet, on turf, on real grass, etc.

So, even in those years that Manning had a higher passer rating than Brady, Brady had a higher passer rating on games played outdoors AND games played in a dome. The ONLY reason that Manning's season ratings are higher is because (up until this year in Denver), he played at least half of his games in a dome, while Brady played the majority of his games outside. Everybody plays better indoors than outdoors, so Manning would have the higher numbers solely because a much higher percentage of games played indoors than Brady.

2) Ever notice how its always "Peyton is better than Brady", then "Eli is better than Brady", then "Brees is better than Brady", then "Rodgers is better than Brady".

The one constant? It's always everyone compared to Brady.

3) Winning percentage (take a look at the chart and sort by winning %). In the end, it all comes down to winning, and Brady takes the cake here.

Brady's 77.9% winning percentage is the highest in the history of the league, and he's the only quarterback ever to win over three quarters of the games he starts. Peyton's no slouch, but his winning percentage (68.2%) is nearly 10% less than Brady's.

On top of that, Brady's one of four (?) quarterbacks to win at least three Super Bowls and one of two quarterbacks to have played in five of them. He's played in 6 AFC championships (and won 5 of them) in 10 full seasons as a starter.

And he is the first (and only) quarterback in the league's history to lead his team to 10 division titles. The only year where they did not win the division with Brady as the starting QB was 2002, Brady's 2nd year as a starter, where they missed out on the AFC east and playoffs on week 17 due to a tiebreaker.


So yeah, back a few years ago, it was a really close debate between Brady and Manning. But, as their careers have progressed, we've seen Brady widen this gap, and no matter which way you break it down, Brady's the better quarterback. Nothing against Peyton, who is most definitely a great quarterback, surefire 1st ballot hall of famer, and top 5 at his position in the history of the NFL, he's just not as good as Tom. ;)


And you don't think Denver has? All I'm saying is that Brady and the Patriots don't have a free pass to the Super Bowl like everyone thinks they do. We can go look up stats/situations/games (like losing to Seattle is a tell, but it isn't...) but the AFC is pretty tough this year same with the NFC. Like I said, any other year I would agree with you but not this year. It's no longer "New England should win..." it's going to be a tough road to the Super Bowl in the AFC and should be equally the same in the Super Bowl.

Oh no they have. All of the teams in the league (well except maybe the Jaguars :p) have improved every week. But Brady has shredded this Denver defense three times in the past year and a half.

I don't think you'll find any real football fan who will say that any team has a "free pass" to the Super Bowl. It doesn't work like that. The hacks over at ESPN might try to say something like that, but it's just not true. When the Patriots had the undefeated regular season and went in to the playoffs as the huge favorite to win it all, they didn't. But in 2001, when they were 14 point underdogs to the Rams, they won. And in 2003 and 2004, when all the hacks were saying there was no way the Patriots would be able to win it again (and again), they proved them wrong. Just proof that the speculation by the ESPN hacks is worth pretty much nothing.

That said, the Patriots somehow scraped by last year with the 2nd worse defense in the league and made it all the way to the Super Bowl. This years team is measurably better on both sides of the ball, so there's no reason, if they play well up to their full potential, that they couldn't go back and win it all.

But it's definitely not an easy road to the Super Bowl for any team in any conference. The NFC has the Falcons, 49ers, Packers, and Giants, who are all formidable teams, and on the AFC you have New England, Houston, Baltimore, and Denver. Any of these teams could win any game on any specific day, so it's definitely shaping up to be a great playoff season.

The Patriots have the Texans coming up to Foxboro this week on MNF and then the 49ers next week on SNF, two of the biggest games of the entire season. These games will provide a great measuring stick for all three teams involved, and we might have a better idea of what to expect in the playoffs with these teams after these matchups. Should be fun.
 

63dot

macrumors 603
Jun 12, 2006
5,269
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norcal
I think if I had to choose best football career, it would go to Brady. Not only does he have three rings and two additional AFC championships, he has a great career QB rating which he has maintained. When he leaves football, I hope it's while he is still up there in his numbers. I wouldn't want him to wither with another team like Joe did with the Chiefs or Brett did with the Vikings. While they did well, they are most remembered for the teams they won the Super Bowl with and/or racked up the most yards.

If I had to choose best regular season year, as compared to peers at the time, there's nothing that comes even close to Dan Marino's 1984. Records he held took 15 to 20 years to match or beat. Some numbers put up by that old school quarterback are still not attained even in more pass happy offenses. Comparatively it would be like Brady tossing for 65 TDs against the Brees and Mannings of today.

If I had to choose one QB's postseason history, it would be Joe Montana going 4 for 4 in Super Bowls and besting the other 4 for 4 Bradshaw on many stats.

If I had to choose best arm, while at his peak, Brett Favre had a laser of a pass the the guys out there to catch them, and run after the catch. As much as I disliked Favre during my Steve Young years, he was a freak of nature and the only mistake the universe made was that Favre wasn't a 49er.

If I had to pick one Super Bowl game to be a QB, it would be Steve Young in 94-95 season both setting records, smashing the competition, and getting that monkey off the back having the best career QB numbers yet never beating Dallas in NFC championship and never being like Joe Montana and thus being a Super Bowl victor. That Super Bowl ended any argument against Steve Young being on the 49ers. That game was a big sigh of relief and an affirmation that the guy who followed Joe would be good for San Francisco's future.

And if I had to choose a QB in his absolute prime for my team, it would be Kurt Warner, the Greatest Show on Turf.
 
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zioxide

macrumors 603
Dec 11, 2006
5,737
3,726
I think if I had to choose best football career, it would go to Brady. Not only does he have three rings and two additional AFC championships, he has a great career QB rating.

If I had to choose best regular season year, as compared to peers at the time, there's nothing that comes even close to Dan Marino's 1984. Records he held took 15 to 20 years to match or beat. Some numbers put up by that old school quarterback are still not attained. Comparatively it would be like Brady tossing for 65 TDs against the Brees and Mannings of today.

If I had to choose one QBs postseason history, it would be Joe Montana going 4 for 4 and besting the other 4 for 4 Bradshaw on many stats.

If I had to choose best arm, while at his peak, Brett Favre had a laser of a pass the the guys out there to catch them, and run after the catch. As much as I disliked Favre during my Steve Young years, he was a freak of nature and the only mistake the universe made was that Favre wasn't a 49er.

If I had to pick one Super Bowl game to be a QB, it would be Steve Young in 1995 both setting records, smashing the competition, and getting that monkey off the back having the best career QB numbers yet never beating Dallas in NFC championship and never being like Joe Montana and thus being a Super Bowl victor. That game was a big sigh of relief and an affirmation that the guy who followed Joe would be good for San Francisco's future.

And if I had to choose a QB in his absolute prime for my team, it would be Kurt Warner, the Greatest Show on Turf.

Pretty spot on here. I would be interested to see a legitimate statistical breakdown of Marino's 1984 vs Manning's 2004 vs Brady's 2007 in terms of their performance against the rest of the players that season.

Baseball has the new saber-metric statistic wins above replacement (WAR) and I'd like to see if there is a way to do a similar thing for football here. Would be interesting to see how Marino's WAR in 1984 stacks up against Manning's 2004 or Brady's 2007, and also to see over the course of their careers how many wins above replacement guys like Brady and Manning are over the likes of a Sanchez, Romo, Flacco, Cassel, etc. I'll look in to it when I get some time later.
 

63dot

macrumors 603
Jun 12, 2006
5,269
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norcal
Pretty spot on here. I would be interested to see a legitimate statistical breakdown of Marino's 1984 vs Manning's 2004 vs Brady's 2007 in terms of their performance against the rest of the players that season.

Baseball has the new saber-metric statistic wins above replacement (WAR) and I'd like to see if there is a way to do a similar thing for football here. Would be interesting to see how Marino's WAR in 1984 stacks up against Manning's 2004 or Brady's 2007, and also to see over the course of their careers how many wins above replacement guys like Brady and Manning are over the likes of a Sanchez, Romo, Flacco, Cassel, etc. I'll look in to it when I get some time later.

When Montana and the 49ers won the Super Bowl against the Dolphins, what should have won everybody over was that the team had Montana and a great crew. But he only tossed for 20-something TDs that season against the 48 of Marino. I had my doubts for the 49ers when it was Miami that they had to go against. I will try to find link I read and may have posted here sometime back about the perfect QB season of Marino.

but this in interesting:

http://forum.bodybuilding.com/showthread.php?t=140566481&page=1

I think while Brady is great and important for his team, they have other major weapons with maybe the Gronk being of equal consequence. A lack of a healthy Gronk could be what sinks New England in the postseason.

When the Colts didn't have Peyton, they were doomed but with him looked like it could win the Super Bowl any year. If anything, Peyton and Brady stand alone ahead of the competition for longevity and good numbers throughout all those years, but Peyton does have that awful non-Peyton Colt's year to brag about his importance to an organization for anyone's desire to crown a career MVP for QB the way people may place LT of the Giants as indispensable defensive player or Emmett Smith as indispensable offensive weapon.

Every year that passes without the Colts going to the Super Bowl will be another feather in the hat of Peyton's legacy on football so only time will tell. We had the Montana-Young-Rice years and I don't suspect I will live long enough to see that type of a run again from the Niners. At least the Colts have Luck, and without him, they may have been doomed to five or ten years of losing seasons.
 
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zioxide

macrumors 603
Dec 11, 2006
5,737
3,726
When Montana and the 49ers won the Super Bowl against the Dolphins, what should have won everybody over was that the team had Montana and a great crew. But he only tossed for 20-something TDs that season against the 48 of Marino. I had my doubts for the 49ers when it was Miami that they had to go against. I will try to find link I read and may have posted here sometime back about the perfect QB season of Marino.

but this in interesting:

http://forum.bodybuilding.com/showthread.php?t=140566481&page=1

Definitely interesting. That was four years before I was born though so obviously I never got to watch that season.

I think while Brady is great and important for his team, they have other major weapons with maybe the Gronk being of equal consequence. A lack of a healthy Gronk could be what sinks New England in the postseason.

Luckily barring any unforeseen complications Gronk will be back and healthy come playoff time. I'm more worried about the other guys who aren't hurt staying healthy than I am about Gronk coming back. He'll be fine.

When the Colts didn't have Peyton, they were doomed but with him looked like it could win the Super Bowl any year. If anything, Peyton and Brady stand alone ahead of the competition for longevity and good numbers throughout all those years, but Peyton does have that awful non-Peyton Colt's year to brag about his importance to an organization for anyone's desire to crown a career MVP for QB the way people may place LT of the Giants as indispensable defensive player or Emmett Smith as indispensable offensive weapon.

Every year that passes without the Colts going to the Super Bowl will be another feather in the hat of Peyton's legacy on football so only time will tell. We had the Montana-Young-Rice years and I don't suspect I will live long enough to see that type of a run again from the Niners. At least the Colts have Luck, and without him, they may have been doomed to five or ten years of losing seasons.

The Colts are 8-4 this year and will probably finish either 10-6 or 11-5.. with a rookie quarterback. If that doesn't prove that their 2-14 record last year was them tanking so they could get the 1st overall pick then I don't know what does. But they definitely tanked it. They could have made a move to bring in a guy better than Curtis Painter and would have been much better than 2-14 last year if they really wanted to, but tanking worked out and set them up with Luck for the next 10 years. Good for them.

I know how you feel about the Montana-Young-Rice years with your 49ers though. Us Patriots fans are experiencing this now. I'm confident saying Tom Brady is the best player I will ever see play for the Patriots in my lifetime. He's that good. This is what it was like for my parents watching Bobby Orr back in the late 60s/early 70s.
 

63dot

macrumors 603
Jun 12, 2006
5,269
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norcal
I know how you feel about the Montana-Young-Rice years with your 49ers though. Us Patriots fans are experiencing this now. I'm confident saying Tom Brady is the best player I will ever see play for the Patriots in my lifetime. He's that good. This is what it was like for my parents watching Bobby Orr back in the late 60s/early 70s.

You are going through your dynasty right now (2001-present) with Brady. The Cowboys had their 3 SB wins in the '90s and the 49ers had their 4 SB wins in the '80s plus an extra one in '94-'95 season. As long as the Pats have Brady, they should be good for another couple of postseason years. Beyond that, a 37 or 38 year old Brady probably won't be the same player he is now or was in his 20s (when it comes to getting hit and recovering from injury) which could be the deciding factor which led to somewhat early than expected retirements of QBs that could have played to 37 or 38 but didn't because another concussion wasn't worth it.

I can see Brady and company going all the way this year, though it won't be easy with the likes of Atlanta and Houston, and if the Pats can achieve this great feat this and next year, he can be the only QB with five Super Bowl wins. He got three early career, missed what would have been a mid-career high of 16 regular season games plus a Super Bowl, and is now looking at late career attempts (which would be hardest in anyone's career) of getting another SB. What Brady has done, starting for the Patriots in 2000 and still being in good form leading the team into the month of January, is basically played top level football for almost what would have been two great careers' worth in the NFL. If Brady wins the big prize this SB coming up in the early months of 2013, I don't think there's a player out there who would be able to have championship wins spanning such a long period of 2001 season and now. At the very least I want to see Brady have four big wins like a Bradshaw or Montana but I don't see him as one with that much time left to get that extra ring. He has the ability to be good enough at QB to probably get a ring for this year and the next three years, but that would be assuming other players will still be on top in that period, and that everybody will stay healthy.

I can see championship longevity of almost 15 years in baseball, as is the case with Derek Jeter who got five rings in 14 seasons (and may even add to that), but with rough and tumble football it's a much harder task to complete. My best guess is that a kicker can get a SB win early as a rookie and be on a team who gets that prize in 13th or 14th seasons. Brady is in his 13th season now.
 
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63dot

macrumors 603
Jun 12, 2006
5,269
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norcal
agreed...

so that whole post.. kinda like yer dissertation for yer PHD... you mastering in MacRumorsNFLology... ?

:D ;)

It's just a master's thesis. ;)

Anyway, from Tom's thirty-something generation, the final thing I want to see is for somebody to get four Super Bowl wins. I don't realistically see Big Ben or Eli Manning doing it, and Peyton is probably past his prime and a sprained ankle away from an old age home, so I put my faith in Tom to do it. Of course the next QB to knock on Joe's four ring door will be Colin Kaepernick before 2020.:eek:
 

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zioxide

macrumors 603
Dec 11, 2006
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agreed...

so that whole post.. kinda like yer dissertation for yer PHD... you mastering in MacRumorsNFLology... ?

:D ;)

Kinda like I was bored on a wednesday :D;)


And here we go... Football outsiders provides some new sabermetric style statistics for football...
DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) and DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average).

from their website:
Quarterbacks are ranked according to DYAR, or Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement. This gives the value of the quarterback 's performance compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage. DYAR (and its cousin, YAR, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.

The other statistic given is DVOA, or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average. This number represents value, per play, over an average quarterback in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance. Negative DVOA represents below-average offense. DVOA (and its cousin, VOA, which isn't adjusted based on opponent) is further explained here.

I picked out a few of this years QBs just for a comparison. Obviously the rest are at the link if there's someone I left out.

Code:
2012 Season
Player    | DYAR  | DVOA

T Brady   | 1,590 | 39.0%
P Manning | 1,305 | 30.6%
A Rodgers | 926   | 19.3%
M Schaub  | 731   | 15.0%
M Ryan    | 667   | 9.4%
E Manning | 583   | 8.5%
M Sanchez | -242  | -20.2%

This actually quantifies just how much better Brady and Manning are from the rest of the competition. It also shows how BAD sanchez is :p Sorry, Jets fans ;)

And here's a few historic QB seasons to compare it to. Unfortunately it only goes back to 1991 so we can't compare Marino's 1984.

Code:
Player    YR  | DYAR  | DVOA
T Brady   07  | 2,674 | 54.1%
P Manning 04  | 2,434 | 58.9%
D Brees   11  | 2,259 | 38.3%
A Rodgers 11  | 2,059 | 46.6%
T Brady   11  | 1,997 | 35.4%
T Brady   10  | 1,918 | 46.7%
P Manning 10  | 1,400 | 19.0%
A Rodgers 10  | 1,288 | 26.9%

I'll let you draw your own conclusions, but I think I found my new favorite website.
 

pachyderm

macrumors G3
Jan 12, 2008
9,994
4,929
Smyrna, TN
It's just a master's thesis. ;)

Anyway, from Tom's thirty-something generation, the final thing I want to see is for somebody to get four Super Bowl wins. I don't realistically see Big Ben or Eli Manning doing it, and Peyton is probably past his prime and a sprained ankle away from an old age home, so I put my faith in Tom to do it. Of course the next QB to knock on Joe's four ring door will be Colin Kaepernick before 2020.:eek:

Eli might...
 

zioxide

macrumors 603
Dec 11, 2006
5,737
3,726
lmao. dolphin tears are always funny.

Here comes another story about the Patriots “disrespecting” their opponents, only with a twist.

This complaint from the other team didn’t even come in a blowout and had nothing to do with the Patriots running up the score. It had to do with the Patriots running out the clock.

With the Patriots up just seven points and the outcome still very much in doubt, Tom Brady marched the Patriots down the field 77 yards toward the game-clinching field goal, putting them up, 23-13, with just 70 seconds left in the game.

But the star of the drive wasn’t Brady but rather running back Stevan Ridley, who ran the ball 10 times of the 16 plays on the drive. He ran for 46 yards and essentially shoved the ball right down Miami’s throat. That didn’t sit well with Miami defensive tackle Tony McDaniel.

“It really [ticked] me off,” McDaniel told Palm Beach Post reporter Brian Biggane. “It was disrespectful to us to run the same play over and over and be successful. Normally, when somebody’s driving down the field you just think, ‘Well, they just had a good run there,’ but you run the same play over and over, as a competitor that [ticks] me off.”

Another Dolphins defensive lineman, Randy Starks, also used the “D” word but thought it was silly to think the Patriots would do something other than what worked for them.

“It is disrespectful, but you’ve got to stop it,” Starks said. “We never stopped it, so I’d keep running the same play, too.”

Starks and McDaniel might want to pay closer attention to the film, because while Ridley did run it 10 times, the Patriots were nice enough to vary the runs.

Ridley ran four times off left guard, twice up the middle, twice off right end, once off right tackle and once off left tackle. Shane Vereen ran once of left guard.

Maybe the Dolphins were shocked with the ease the Patriots ran the ball in the second half, considering they attempted just seven runs for 11 yards in the first half.

WEEI

Priceless. "It was disrespectful to us to run the same play over and over and be successful." Right, Tony McDaniel. The Patriots were disrespectful to you because you and your team couldn't stop a simple run up the middle. Sure. You seriously can't make this **** up. Maybe you should have stopped them and then they wouldn't keep running the same play. :rolleyes:
 

63dot

macrumors 603
Jun 12, 2006
5,269
339
norcal
Eli might...

That would be great but what would be fun is if in the future both he and his brother were at three each and then had to meet but those odds are long. Eli is not his brother on any level no matter how many rings he retires with, and even his brother (at his age) is either not the old Peyton Manning at this point or will soon succumb to age. I don't think the Peyton of today can afford to take the hits he used to brush off when he was in his 20s. I can see Peyton getting just one more ring and Eli would have to have the stars line up right for one more, and two is just out of the question.

There's a reason guys like Aikman and Brady reached three and a big part is because of the supporting cast both great QBs had. I don't think either Manning has that right now. The best either had was the crew Peyton had with him in the 2000s and that will be enough for Peyton and a few fellow Colts to one day be Hall of Fame legends. Peyton, if not in the same sentence as Brady, can not only match him, but surpass him if he takes (a different team) to the Super Bowl and wins. He has his numbers, many of which are not reached, and winning a SB with Denver, and at his age and after serious injury, may make a lot of people consider him the best ever.
 

pachyderm

macrumors G3
Jan 12, 2008
9,994
4,929
Smyrna, TN
That would be great but what would be fun is if in the future both he and his brother were at three each and then had to meet but those odds are long. Eli is not his brother on any level no matter how many rings he retires with, and even his brother (at his age) is either not the old Peyton Manning at this point or will soon succumb to age. I don't think the Peyton of today can afford to take the hits he used to brush off when he was in his 20s. I can see Peyton getting just one more ring and Eli would have to have the stars line up right for one more, and two is just out of the question.

There's a reason guys like Aikman and Brady reached three and a big part is because of the supporting cast both great QBs had. I don't think either Manning has that right now. The best either had was the crew Peyton had with him in the 2000s and that will be enough for Peyton and a few fellow Colts to one day be Hall of Fame legends. Peyton, if not in the same sentence as Brady, can not only match him, but surpass him if he takes (a different team) to the Super Bowl and wins. He has his numbers, many of which are not reached, and winning a SB with Denver, and at his age and after serious injury, may make a lot of people consider him the best ever.

good stuff. eli, IMHO, has always found a way to win. i agree with all that you said. and i do believe he will find a way to win just one more title. prolly not this season but i wouldn't rule it out in the future. i don't see peyton winning another one.
 

Lord Blackadder

macrumors P6
May 7, 2004
15,669
5,499
Sod off
A good day for Cleveland fans, and I was in the stands to watch the Browns notch their biggest-margin win of the season, 30-7 over KC. To ice the cake, everyone else in the AFC North lost. :)

5-8 on the season. As for our final games I rate our chances of beating Washington as slim (improving to a "maybe" if Griffin is really injured), zero chance at Denver and probably not at Pittsburgh. Winning at Pittsburgh would be huge for morale, and they are playing badly right now, but it may be too much to hope for.

Weeden looked like a rookie, nor was our play-calling all that great. But our defense more than did their job and Travis Benjamin's club-record 94 yard punt return sweetened the win.
 

ucfgrad93

macrumors Core
Aug 17, 2007
19,542
10,829
Colorado
I wonder where MacDawg is? I'm surprised he hasn't mentioned the Falcon game yesterday.:p

And you are certainly correct Lord Blackadder the Browns have no chance of winning in Denver. My family and I will be at the game cheering on Peyton and the Broncos.
 

63dot

macrumors 603
Jun 12, 2006
5,269
339
norcal
I wonder where MacDawg is? I'm surprised he hasn't mentioned the Falcon game yesterday.:p

I think he could be waiting to see what tonight's game gives us. I hope the Pats win and brings Houston down to earth, probably both for his next best 11-2 team and my Niners. If Houston plays the way they have been all season, then it will probably be another win, though by very little, for the Texans.

I don't see any weaknesses the Pats could exploit against Houston but like some analysts say, duh, that they have to make sure Houston doesn't control the clock and hopefully that the Pats could also stop the Houston running game. The Pats could also add a weapon of running the ball, too and especially on third downs. This game is going to be a close fought grind with two very physical teams. I don't think Brady can take to the air with a whole slew of open receivers against this particular team. If the Pats have to bear down and play a ball control game and make it black and blue football, few teams can do it as well as them. For Houston, all they have to do is to play the same way they have and don't make errors but I don't see them starting to blow it now unless they have injuries on key players.

If the Pats play a physical game, then 24-21 tonight.

But below link shows similar score in Texans favor.
Key factor is that Brady is 5th top rated QB leading the top scoring offense but Texans have running game high in attempts in addition to second top scoring offense so one could call it a tie. Though Pats are not known for defense, they can stop pass and force fumbles, and that's they key factor in tonight's game so I don't see overall why they choose Texas in a game at New England. When all things are equal, defense wins, and if defenses are matched well against the offenses they will face, then I think fumbles and turnovers could be that x-factor.

http://www.athlonsports.com/nfl/houston-texans-vs-new-england-patriots-preview-and-prediction

Anyway, nobody sees this game as a blowout similar to some of Sunday's games but if there is any time there needs to be a blowout, it has to be New England at home going for home field advantage. They can't be second best team in AFC when AFC is a distant second behind much more talented NFC. If the Pats go to SB and face a Green Bay, Atlanta, or SF, then they have to show they are way above the rest of the hapless AFC with a big win tonight. With four out of the past Super Bowls going to NFC, maybe this game could show a glimmer of hope for AFC, either as Pats as a having a real shot, or Houston. Being two games behind Houston with just three to go after tonight, this is a must win for New England going into the stretch.
 
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