All iPads Apple has become predictable

[iHeartsteve]

Apple is positively in the evil genius category of upselling and upgrading, and are always thinking of the long game.

If they put in a retina and a5x chip now, how excited do you think people would be in 2013 to buy a mini 2 when it has an a6x chip and has up to 100% better performance in synthetic benchmarks?

Unless they threw in an unexpected, "Holy Schnikes, how in God's name did western civilization survive before this?!?" feature, the reaction would be similar to what you're seeing from iPad3 owners on the 4: "Meh, pass. Let's see what they come out with on the next one."

Yes I totally understand why they held out on adding everything. I'm just saying they could have given us some bells and whistles while still making money. They clearly did minor upgrade from the iPad 3 to the 4. Just increased processor. Could have done it w the mini. Apple is not going broke any time soon.

 

[Defender2010]

Well, obviously they're going to go in with the least specs they can get away with on the first model. They can afford to do this based on the novelty factor alone, as people in the apple store realize that it's almost $200 cheaper than the big iPad and they can easily fit it in a cargo pocket, backpack or purse.

There will be a lot of fanfare next year when they announce that it has retina display and a a5x chip. My guess is the mini will trail the iPad's hardware by two generations so it won't cannibalize sales of its big brother.

Apple has to sell millions of iPads every year, presumably to mostly the same people, or their stock price will tank. The economy will collapse as everyone else will realize "if Apple can't make a buck, we're :expletive deleted:!" and close their factories and businesses. People will be out of work, dictators will be elected, wars will be fought over scare resources, and germ warfare will cause a zombie pandemic. Or, if we're lucky, it'll only be as bad as living in a Mad Max movie.

So, which is worse? Not getting retina this year on the mini or watching Australians run around in assless leather chaps in 2015? Take your pick.

No device is likely to get the A5X again judging by the issues with 3rd gen iPad...for example: Heat! This chip holds no place in any future product. Next Mini will be A6 or A6X in my opinion.

 

[clyde2801]

No device is likely to get the A5X again judging by the issues with 3rd gen iPad...for example: Heat! This chip holds no place in any future product. Next Mini will be A6 or A6X in my opinion.

We'll have to see how it compares to the a6x under stress. But I think they'll purposefully release it at least one generation of hardware behind the current iPad to keep the mini from cannibalizing its sales.

 

[jabingla2810]

No device is likely to get the A5X again judging by the issues with 3rd gen iPad...for example: Heat! This chip holds no place in any future product. Next Mini will be A6 or A6X in my opinion.

From all the reviews i've read the A6X has the same heat 'issues' the A5X did.

 

[sineplex]

What part of my statement did I say I expected some magical device that will brush my teeth for me and pick up my dry cleaning.

my main point was Apple COULD HAVE ADDED the freaking upgraded processor and retina display. There is just as many people who have argued on this thread already, that apple purposely waited to hold off on that for the next upgrade.

And yes, I would pay more for the mini if it had retina right now. B/c of the model I'm choosing, I'd already be paying $600. I'd prefer no headache while reading my iPad for an extra $100.

In addition...I jokingly said...hahah steve jobs would be working on something revolutionary.

2 different statements. sorry I didn't add a different paragraph about steve jobs.

you may have paid $600, i may have paid the same. but they're selling to mass market. They have to shrink the top CPU down, then there's the weight of the battery to drive the retina... and it has to compete with all the other $200 7" tablets. so they can drive a profit to share holders on wall street. I think they've done a great job. enough to milk you again next year. kapeesh?

 

[reputationZed]

No device is likely to get the A5X again judging by the issues with 3rd gen iPad...for example: Heat! This chip holds no place in any future product. Next Mini will be A6 or A6X in my opinion.

Not to mention that the A5x is a huge piece of silicon. I don't even know if you could fit it in a mini sized device. I agree the A6 and A6X are the future.

 

[michelob tfs]

Yes I know, I am not one of the people to go out and buy a 3d TV. I should have added -- any new cool feature. I was just trying to point out that steve jobs would be grinding his brain to come out with something more innovative than just - faster and thinner.

I'm still disappointed in apple just making iphone 5 design basically...longer. seriously, thats the best you came up with???

Worst. Post. Ever.

 

[hyteckit]

Brand new Apple product in 2013:

iGlass

Similar to Google Glasses.

 

[apierrec]

Most Apple haters or critics in this forum & everywhere are all either in denial or delusional or just do not simply understand what Apple is from the start, up thru now and possibly moving forward the future - Apple culture is not just about delivering products based on the current trends or consumers wish lists or what the competitions already have or offering that the mainstream public like. They are not about making further risk-taking / drastic changes of an idea that already works - next iterations would be just about refinements or possibly making it perfect.

Good or evil, Apple at it's core is a rebel (and not so much of risk taker when it comes to iterations of already hugely successful products - they will be done in an Apple way - refinements/enhancements/tweaks to what already works) and would do things differently on their own terms producing products that consumers do not know they need them.

All the surprises or unpredictability (if there's any) will come in the first generations of their products. For example, iPad mini is really just an iteration of an already existing or established products - so do not expect revolutionary or exciting surprises.

Apple is really about reinvention of existing ideas and producing products with minimalist, simple, elegant designs and with also what they with great build quality (that they find simply works and beautiful) that consumers will love and should have and at a premium price (which Apple think is fair). They do not engage in price wars - they are about beating themselves - designing & building or products the Apple way. If it already works, they will just find some ways to perfect or make them even better (no more so much risk taking). If you hate that Apple culture go find whatever suit your needs somewhere.

Oh well, that's how I interpreted Steve Jobs Apple World is and what kind of still happening up to now in Tim Cook's era. If there's anything worth watching is the recent changing of the guards. I do no expect something revolutionary or out of this world surprises will come out of that. Tim Cook is all right but am really looking forward what Jony Ive & co. will do as am a huge fan of their works.



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I cannot wait for Apple's really next big thing!

 

[ljx718]

apple has their own factories in china so they obviously have the lowest labor fees possible. majority of retailers make at least 300-500% profit. If apple had put in the retina and faster processor, they would NOT be losing money. They would be just making LESS. Since apple DOES sell millions...guess what...they'll still be making millions if they threw in the damn retina display.

Its like getting tinted windows on a car but only having to pay the price of a base model...the retailer and the car manufacturer is still making at least triple the cost of the car.

If the mini was released prior to the ipad 3, macbook retina and even before Iphone 5(even though the 4 also had it), I think people would be less annoyed w apple. apple has already added retina display in majority of their other devices.

so how much research did you do on that 300-500% profit? Making numbers up sure is fun!

Neither you or I know how much they make per ipad, but you do have to consider R&d ( which they just raised the budget another billion in the recent report) labor , taxes, export + import fees, rent for stores..etc.

apple does make a crazy amount of profit, but who are we to tell them how much of a profit they should make? If you think they make too much or their products are too pricy, then dont buy. Or, you could wait till they come down in price.

 

[mantan]

Most Apple haters or critics in this forum & everywhere are all either in denial or delusional or just do not simply understand what Apple is from the start, up thru now and possibly moving forward the future - Apple culture is not just about delivering products based on the current trends or consumers wish lists or what the competitions already have or offering that the mainstream public like. They are not about making further risk-taking / drastic changes of an idea that already works - next iterations would be just about refinements or possibly making it perfect.

Good or evil, Apple at it's core is a rebel (and not so much of risk taker when it comes to iterations of already hugely successful products - they will be done in an Apple way - refinements/enhancements/tweaks to what already works) and would do things differently on their own terms producing products that consumers do not know they need them.

All the surprises or unpredictability (if there's any) will come in the first generations of their products. For example, iPad mini is really just an iteration of an already existing or established products - so do not expect revolutionary or exciting surprises.

Apple is really about reinvention of existing ideas and producing products with minimalist, simple, elegant designs and with also what they with great build quality (that they find simply works and beautiful) that consumers will love and should have and at a premium price (which Apple think is fair). They do not engage in price wars - they are about beating themselves - designing & building or products the Apple way. If it already works, they will just find some ways to perfect or make them even better (no more so much risk taking). If you hate that Apple culture go find whatever suit your needs somewhere.

Oh well, that's how I interpreted Steve Jobs Apple World is and what kind of still happening up to now in Tim Cook's era. If there's anything worth watching is the recent changing of the guards. I do no expect something revolutionary or out of this world surprises will come out of that. Tim Cook is all right but am really looking forward what Jony Ive & co. will do as am a huge fan of their works.



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I cannot wait for Apple's really next big thing!

I can’t believe people still believe in the mythology of Apple as a rebel or underdog company.

Yes, there was a day where that was true. They were an underdog company formed with that vision.

Now they are THE 800 lbs gorilla in the market. They aren’t the underdog, they are the target. Producing premium products to please their loyal devotees has to take a back seat to making sure they hit that quarterly earnings projection. They are quickly becoming a victim of their own success where the sales bar they have to jump over every year is getting higher and higher. It’s not about converting people to premium laptops/desktops. It’s about finding ways to sell millions of devices each year in a quickly maturing smartphone and tablet market.

They didn’t fall into the 7 inch tablet world because they ‘wanted to make it better’…they realized it was a potential untapped market and way to get some more sales.

They are predictable. There is no doubt they released the weakest spec’d first generation Mini they could get away it at the absolute highest price they could squeeze out of it. And despite the apologists wringing their hands about technological limits – there will be a Retina (or some other high resolution) Mini 2 coming out next year.

But that's the real world. With the tremendous growth they've had, their primary focus has to be maintaining their market cap and share. If that means milking their customers a bit, then that's what they have to do.

 

[apierrec]

Take a deep breath, think harder ...

 

[mantan]

so how much research did you do on that 300-500% profit? Making numbers up sure is fun!

Neither you or I know how much they make per ipad, but you do have to consider R&d ( which they just raised the budget another billion in the recent report) labor , taxes, export + import fees, rent for stores..etc.

apple does make a crazy amount of profit, but who are we to tell them how much of a profit they should make? If you think they make too much or their products are too pricy, then dont buy. Or, you could wait till they come down in price.

Hear, hear. Working for a large pharmacutical company I wish our customers saw things the same way.

But no....always the complaints that we are 'price gouging'.....

 

[Domino8282]

What part of my statement did I say I expected some magical device that will brush my teeth for me and pick up my dry cleaning.

my main point was Apple COULD HAVE ADDED the freaking upgraded processor and retina display. There is just as many people who have argued on this thread already, that apple purposely waited to hold off on that for the next upgrade.

And yes, I would pay more for the mini if it had retina right now. B/c of the model I'm choosing, I'd already be paying $600. I'd prefer no headache while reading my iPad for an extra $100.

In addition...I jokingly said...hahah steve jobs would be working on something revolutionary.

2 different statements. sorry I didn't add a different paragraph about steve jobs.

Holding back features is a myth. Apple does not want reviews that says the display sucks and the display on its competitors' 7-inch tablets is better. If investors found out they were intentionally holding back, they would be in major, major trouble. There is no benefit in cannibalizing their own sales. For what? So some of their customers have to upgrade more? So they won't be "out of ideas" for the next iteration?

Think about it,... What purpose does holding back features serve? If they could have realistically included retina and an A6 for the same price in the same form factor right now (not at next year's costs after another year of development), they would have demolished the competition this Holiday season. Don't you think they wanted that??

Will they get those features in the next model? Almost certainly. Does that prove your argument? Not at all. Time is what allows them to include more for less. Time is the reason the features and specs continue to go up while the price stays the same. Time for costs to come down, time for R&D, etc. Not magic.

 

[MartyCan]

It would be foolish not to believe that they are several devices ahead at any point in time. Not with a finished ready to launch product but with a plan. They don't decide in August to update an item for delivery in September. There are a ton of pieces to put together to make it work.

Sometimes it is frustrating but if you get over "not having the latest device" (I'm not over it btw, :LOL what's the big deal?

Though I still do use my iPad 1 even though I also have a 3rd gen.

 

[roxxette]

You all have lost a grip on reality. There was no such thing AS an iPad LESS THAN 3 years ago. Somehow you want Apple to create miracle yearly now? Apple had be party to a few big ideas, the personal computer, graphical UI, iPod/iTunes, the iPhone and now iPad but that is over decades and decades. The iPad mini doesn't have retina this year because the technology to mass produce retina screens in a 7.85 doesn't exist AND is too costly. Apple didn't want to lose out on folks who wanted a smaller tablet so they made it non retina. Sure in 12-24 months as factories improve and technology improves and apples prices go down they will release a retina mini for $329 or gasp, $299 but until then enjoy the iPad mini in its current brilliance.

PS: none of the android 7 inch tablets have a resolution equal or approaching the level required for an exact 4x pixel doubling of an apple iPad screen... They can't do it either.

You need to get a grip mate.

 

[darngooddesign]

...I'm still disappointed in apple just making iphone 5 design basically...longer. seriously, thats the best you came up with???

They iPhone 3G was just an original iPhone with a curved back.

 

[sineplex]

Think about it,... What purpose does holding back features serve?

other tablets out there have GPS as standard. Not apple. You have to pay another $140 for the cellular version even if you have no need for it, just so you can have a GPS. That's one example of many.

 

[glen e]

You all have lost a grip on reality. There was no such thing AS an iPad LESS THAN 3 years ago. Somehow you want Apple to create miracle yearly now? Apple had be party to a few big ideas, the personal computer, graphical UI, iPod/iTunes, the iPhone and now iPad but that is over decades and decades. The iPad mini doesn't have retina this year because the technology to mass produce retina screens in a 7.85 doesn't exist AND is too costly. Apple didn't want to lose out on folks who wanted a smaller tablet so they made it non retina. Sure in 12-24 months as factories improve and technology improves and apples prices go down they will release a retina mini for $329 or gasp, $299 but until then enjoy the iPad mini in its current brilliance.

PS: none of the android 7 inch tablets have a resolution equal or approaching the level required for an exact 4x pixel doubling of an apple iPad screen... They can't do it either.

wow...most common sense business based post Ive read here in the last few weeks...kudos...most people here have no idea how the tech business works....

 

[iHeartsteve]

Holding back features is a myth. Apple does not want reviews that says the display sucks and the display on its competitors' 7-inch tablets is better. If investors found out they were intentionally holding back, they would be in major, major trouble. There is no benefit in cannibalizing their own sales. For what? So some of their customers have to upgrade more? So they won't be "out of ideas" for the next iteration?

Think about it,... What purpose does holding back features serve? If they could have realistically included retina and an A6 for the same price in the same form factor right now (not at next year's costs after another year of development), they would have demolished the competition this Holiday season. Don't you think they wanted that??

Will they get those features in the next model? Almost certainly. Does that prove your argument? Not at all. Time is what allows them to include more for less. Time is the reason the features and specs continue to go up while the price stays the same. Time for costs to come down, time for R&D, etc. Not magic.

I'm a little stunned at how much you think apple would put the customer 'first'. So there is no explaining the other side to you except that business' are out there to make as much money as possible.

Yes it would cost apple slightly more if they included retina in this first version of the mini but they would still be making LARGE PROFIT MARGINS if they did so. Are you not aware how much mark up is? 300-500% of cost. If apple actually put their products on sale for 30%, they'd still be making millions with enough money to still expand!

Investors care only about their return...bottom line. Apple is making MORE money by 'holding back' on the above mentioned upgrades. Majority of people who just now bought the mini which is millions of people, will also then buy the upgrade w the retina display. Investors are not going to be mad at all if Apple held back. They just want the highest return back as possible. If there is anyone who would be advocating to NOT include retina, it would be the investors.

 

[Domino8282]

I'm a little stunned at how much you think apple would put the customer 'first'. So there is no explaining the other side to you except that business' are out there to make as much money as possible.

Yes it would cost apple slightly more if they included retina in this first version of the mini but they would still be making LARGE PROFIT MARGINS if they did so. Are you not aware how much mark up is? 300-500% of cost. If apple actually put their products on sale for 30%, they'd still be making millions with enough money to still expand!

Investors care only about their return...bottom line. Apple is making MORE money by 'holding back' on the above mentioned upgrades. Majority of people who just now bought the mini which is millions of people, will also then buy the upgrade w the retina display. Investors are not going to be mad at all if Apple held back. They just want the highest return back as possible. If there is anyone who would be advocating to NOT include retina, it would be the investors.

To me it's not putting the customer 'first.' I think you and I just disagree on what's most profitable. Think about it - you're saying they are making more money because of all the people who "have to" upgrade next cycle. That makes some faulty assumptions. First, they will release a new iteration next year regardless of what features they include now. They don't have to "save up" features for later. The technology industry is progressing at such a rate that it wouldn't be feasible to do so - they would be left in the dust. Furthermore, you're assuming that those same people wouldn't upgrade ANYway. The people you're talking about, who you claim Apple is duping into buying something subpar so they can sell them the next better thing they're holding back - those people upgrade every year regardless.

Finally, what about the myriad users here claiming they aren't buying one because the display sucks or the processor sucks or whatever? How is that benefitting Apple?

It just doesn't make sense from a business standpoint. Don't get me wrong, I don't see Apple as some beacon of altruism out to help Joe consumer. I just think your reasoning may be faulty and it serves no useful purpose to hold things back UNLESS it is cost prohibitive (yes, that means they may wait to implement something if currently it would reduce their margins to a level investors would find unacceptable).

Edit: To someone a few posts back: Yes, of course they have a roadmap of releases several years into the future. That is all based on projected costs, availability, and technologies for that date in the future. My argument is that if they could implement those features sooner and maintain profit margins that were acceptable to investors, they would do so, because they would sell far more units if everyone agreed hands-down that they were miles above the competition in every spec. There is a balancing act between profit margin and remaining competitive that determines what features they will include and when. They aren't beneficent do-gooders, nor are they evil and out to screw everyone by intentionally holding back something that was just as easy to include. It's based on economics.

 

[iHeartsteve]

To me it's not putting the customer 'first.' I think you and I just disagree on what's most profitable. Think about it - you're saying they are making more money because of all the people who "have to" upgrade next cycle. That makes some faulty assumptions. First, they will release a new iteration next year regardless of what features they include now. They don't have to "save up" features for later. The technology industry is progressing at such a rate that it wouldn't be feasible to do so - they would be left in the dust. Furthermore, you're assuming that those same people wouldn't upgrade ANYway. The people you're talking about, who you claim Apple is duping into buying something subpar so they can sell them the next better thing they're holding back - those people upgrade every year regardless.

Finally, what about the myriad users here claiming they aren't buying one because the display sucks or the processor sucks or whatever? How is that benefitting Apple?

It just doesn't make sense from a business standpoint. Don't get me wrong, I don't see Apple as some beacon of altruism out to help Joe consumer. I just think your reasoning may be faulty and it serves no useful purpose to hold things back UNLESS it is cost prohibitive (yes, that means they may wait to implement something if currently it would reduce their margins to a level investors would find unacceptable).

Edit: To someone a few posts back: Yes, of course they have a roadmap of releases several years into the future. That is all based on projected costs, availability, and technologies for that date in the future. My argument is that if they could implement those features sooner and maintain profit margins that were acceptable to investors, they would do so, because they would sell far more units if everyone agreed hands-down that they were miles above the competition in every spec. There is a balancing act between profit margin and remaining competitive that determines what features they will include and when. They aren't beneficent do-gooders, nor are they evil and out to screw everyone by intentionally holding back something that was just as easy to include. It's based on economics.

Yes the diehard apple fans will always upgrade but you just said technology does move at a fairly fast rate where apple still could have added faster processor on mini 2. There is countless other useful upgrades aside from internal components that people would like improving on such as, anti glare for outside viewing. If I was the CEO I would have given the customers the retina display on the first version since there are people who are holding back on getting it but more so bc I would want to put out a 5 star product that is far ahead of the competitors.

My argument is that if they could implement those features sooner and maintain profit margins that were acceptable to investors, they would do so, because they would sell far more units if everyone agreed hands-down that they were miles above the competition in every spec.

From this statement, You clearly still think that apple would do the advantageous thing and that they really could NOT add the retina display bc they would lose money.

IMO, it is not cost prohibitive to have added retina and that is just where we will continue to disagree. They are just making slightly less money. No one is going to lose their job if apple is only making 499% profit margin.

Apple's Fourth Quarter Sales:

CUPERTINO, California—October 25, 2012—Apple® today announced financial results for its fiscal 2012 fourth quarter ended September 29, 2012. The Company posted quarterly revenue of $36.0 billion and quarterly net profit of $8.2 billion, or $8.67 per diluted share.

We clearly should just agree to disagree on what is cost prohibitive and whether apple 'held back' on an upgrade.

 

[fupresti]

I said he'd be 'working on' something revolutionary. No I do not expect some magical device every upgrade. My point again is that w NO STEVE JOBS, the man with the revolutionary, genius mind...is gone. Plus the 2 apple heads are gone and the one guy was Steve jobs right hand man.

Apple is already doing uncharacteristic business decisions.

Tell me again what major company you work for where you are innovating and making record profits?

Being a Monday morning quarterback must be a tough job.

 

[iHeartsteve]

Tell me again what major company you work for where you are innovating and making record profits?

Being a Monday morning quarterback must be a tough job.

this is the best reply I ever got. my answer to you is, I can not answer that on this public forum.

 

[lianlua]

If apple had put in the retina and faster processor, they would NOT be losing money. They would be just making LESS. Since apple DOES sell millions...guess what...they'll still be making millions if they threw in the damn retina display.

Not likely, since it'd sell at about $499 and would be hot, heavy, and thick compared to what they actually shipped.

And despite the apologists wringing their hands about technological limits – there will be a Retina (or some other high resolution) Mini 2 coming out next year.

How do technological constraints today contradict future advances?

Yes it would cost apple slightly more if they included retina in this first version of the mini but they would still be making LARGE PROFIT MARGINS if they did so. Are you not aware how much mark up is? 300-500% of cost. If apple actually put their products on sale for 30%, they'd still be making millions with enough money to still expand!

The iPad mini's gross margin is around 30% already. You have some seriously off-base ideas about markup and costs.

IMO, it is not cost prohibitive to have added retina and that is just where we will continue to disagree. They are just making slightly less money.

So let's look at some numbers.

iPad mini estimated costs:
Display assembly: $57
Battery: $13
RAM: $8
A5: $14

Cost of iPhone 5 display (for baseline comparison at same pixel density): $44
iPhone 5 screen area: 6.7 inches ($6.56 per sq in). iPad 3/4 display cost: $127 for about 45 square inches at 264ppi ($2.82 per sq in). Hypothetical retina iPad mini would most likely have a display more expensive than its big brother, since higher density drives higher costs on multiple levels, but let's be generous to you and say $5 per sq in since some of display costs won't scale linearly. At 29.6 sq in, that's $148, a $91 increase in components cost by itself (on a device with a total components cost of around $220).

Then you need the A6X, costing roughly double the estimated $14 of the A5, along with moving from 512MB to 1GB of RAM, or $8 to $12. Then of course there's the battery--the iPad needs 65%+ more capacity just to match battery life with the retina display, so that $12.50 jumps up another $7, easily. That's $25 in cost increases just to make the retina display work.

$116 more in parts. With 30% margin, you're now selling the iPad mini at...$499, give or take. The only cost savings you're looking at compared to the iPad 4 is a somewhat smaller, less expensive battery, maybe a buck or two in aluminum, and a lower margin overall compensates for the more expensive screen.

Even in a fantasy land where you could make a 326ppi screen at the right size for $100, you're only pushing the price of the mini down to $429 at best.