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Apple Projected to Lead Tablet Market Through 2013 as Rivals Stumble
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A lot of folks posting here have a tendency to think consumer *needs* figure prominently into their buying decisions. When in fact, consumer *wants* tend to figure just as prominently.
No one really "needs" a $1000 Mac to do basic computing tasks, when very often a cheap Acer will do the trick for less than half the cost (unless User Experience and build quality figure on the "needs" list.)
However, consumers certainly *want* Apple gear, and more and more of it as time goes by. Apple finds a way to tap into consumers' wants. Consumers actually want Apple gear, and are willing to wait in line and spend a lot of money to that end.
Funny thing is, once you buy what you want from Apple, you wonder how you ever got along without it. It turns into need.
This is how technology is pushed forward.
I think the iPad projections are low in comparison to other vendors - other vendors are struggling with acceptance - HP totally drop out and other vendors keep racing for more changes.
One issue, is the fad go over because people may realize they are more productive on ultra notebook like the MacBook AIR. I have bot AIR and iPad 2 and I used the AIR more.
What about tablets that users traded in - likely hard to account for.
I realize that this is what analysts get paid to sit around doing all day, but honestly, unit sales predictions 4 years into the future of an essentially new product category?
If you look at four years ago, 2007, and try to run some of these predictions, what do you get? Depending on the time of year, the iPhone hadn't even been ANNOUNCED yet, and certainly hadn't shipped more than a few units, and it would be three years before the iPad was even announced.
I'm willing to bet that their predictions from 2007 did not show the iPhone and Android being the two huge players in the mobile space, with RIM losing ground rapidly, Palm functionally dead, and MS fighting for table scraps. And I'd bet anything you want that they didn't accurately predict that a product that wouldn't even be announced for 3 years would cut the bottom out of the entire netbook market and sell more units that the entire Mac product line within a matter of months.
Once you get into a stable position--say, corporate desktop PCS--you can probably rough out general trends a couple of years in the future, but trying to predict tablet sales in any meaningful fashion even a year from now borders on pointless, let alone 4 years.
If you look at four years ago, 2007, and try to run some of these predictions, what do you get? Depending on the time of year, the iPhone hadn't even been ANNOUNCED yet, and certainly hadn't shipped more than a few units, and it would be three years before the iPad was even announced.
I'm willing to bet that their predictions from 2007 did not show the iPhone and Android being the two huge players in the mobile space, with RIM losing ground rapidly, Palm functionally dead, and MS fighting for table scraps. And I'd bet anything you want that they didn't accurately predict that a product that wouldn't even be announced for 3 years would cut the bottom out of the entire netbook market and sell more units that the entire Mac product line within a matter of months.
Once you get into a stable position--say, corporate desktop PCS--you can probably rough out general trends a couple of years in the future, but trying to predict tablet sales in any meaningful fashion even a year from now borders on pointless, let alone 4 years.
The changing projections just means that this analyst doesn't have a clue. The iPad is more likely to end up like the iPod, or the Newton, than something in between with just under half the market. Splitting the difference produces nonsense.
I'd love to see a similar historical graph of iPod sales and market share for the last 10 years. I have a feeling future iPad sales and market share are going to mimic that fairly closely.
Competition can't compete on price
The public sees Apple as a premium brand and they believe they will have to pay a premium price for it. But when the public compares the price of the iPad to the competition, they see that the competition is charging about the same.
The public's reaction is: why buy a Ford Focus when I can pay the same amount and get a BMW? And they buy the iPad.
If the competition wants to pull sales away from Apple, they will need to drop the price of their products to the point that it creates a $100+ gap between their tablet and Apple's. Unfortunately for the competition, the cost of components required to create a tablet don't allow them to drop the retail price and still maintain a profit. They will either need to find a way to purchase cheaper materials or sell their tablets at a loss in order to gain market share.
The public sees Apple as a premium brand and they believe they will have to pay a premium price for it. But when the public compares the price of the iPad to the competition, they see that the competition is charging about the same.
The public's reaction is: why buy a Ford Focus when I can pay the same amount and get a BMW? And they buy the iPad.
If the competition wants to pull sales away from Apple, they will need to drop the price of their products to the point that it creates a $100+ gap between their tablet and Apple's. Unfortunately for the competition, the cost of components required to create a tablet don't allow them to drop the retail price and still maintain a profit. They will either need to find a way to purchase cheaper materials or sell their tablets at a loss in order to gain market share.
Yes, for the love of god, stop calling them "media tablets"/"content consumption"/"lean back" devices. Six of the top grossing apps are productivity apps (Pages, Quickoffice, LogMeIn, Keynote, Numbers, Garage Band). People are changing how and when they do work. Are these "analysts" really that blind to think people are just using these to watch movies?
Yes, this is exactly what I was saying. Apple makes people want things they don't necessarily need, and that is why other tablets haven't been that successful... because people don't want them.
Yeah well with apple suing their competition for use of a rectangle they certainly will be on top.
And it brings people who need to say Apple is bad/scared of android/overpriced etc. want to come to macrumors. Even there Apple provides a customer experience for users of other platforms as well.
Steve just thinks of everthing!
But to be honest, I always tell people unfamiliar with Apple that what they really do is make something usable, human friendly. Because what the tech-nerds never figured out is: nobody is born with computer skills. But somehow apple taps into something most people can grasp. Even my dad.
Steve just thinks of everthing!
But to be honest, I always tell people unfamiliar with Apple that what they really do is make something usable, human friendly. Because what the tech-nerds never figured out is: nobody is born with computer skills. But somehow apple taps into something most people can grasp. Even my dad.
That 44.2 Million iPad figure is astonishing. That's amazing for a device not even two years old.
"Needs" is a relative term. The only material things we actually "need" are food, water, and shelter. Everything else is a "want". It makes more sense to talk in terms of the value that technology brings to people's lives. For the majority, the iPad brings a lot of value, and so they are willing to pay the asking price. Whether it brings more or less value than a refrigerator, television, or laptop is debatable.
Further, no one knows if w8 will continue the success of w7 and what that will do to the tab/hybridbook-market. In addition, someone could succeed where arrington failed (make a usd 200 tablet that works), something that would surely make people more willing to adopt the tech. Clearly, there are some possible game changers along the way that could render any analysis as wrong as the phone sales pre-iphone.
re tablet wars
aapl eats other tablets for breakfast
at least for now
man alot of hot chicks i know own ipads
"menudo breakfast of champions..." circa 1975
aapl eats other tablets for breakfast
at least for now
man alot of hot chicks i know own ipads
"menudo breakfast of champions..." circa 1975
I think the analysts are wrong. I see manufacturers catching up to the graphics performance of the iPad (which is the only thing that sets it apart) and increased pricing pressures steering more adopters to lower cost options.
The HP Touchpad fire sale is a prime example of this. Most people who want a tablet for CASUAL use do not want to double down on their investment on mobile computing (especially if they already own a laptop).
Most people are using these as web browsing, e-readers, and connectivity devices. Put a nice screen (and a graphics chip that can handle the strain) on any tablet regardless of OS and sell it for $200 and you will see parents starting to buy them for their kids instead of notebook computers.
Look at the Kindle... they sold a ton of those things and it can't do 1/4 of the things the iPad can. Why? The display works very well for its intended purpose.
The HP Touchpad fire sale is a prime example of this. Most people who want a tablet for CASUAL use do not want to double down on their investment on mobile computing (especially if they already own a laptop).
Most people are using these as web browsing, e-readers, and connectivity devices. Put a nice screen (and a graphics chip that can handle the strain) on any tablet regardless of OS and sell it for $200 and you will see parents starting to buy them for their kids instead of notebook computers.
Look at the Kindle... they sold a ton of those things and it can't do 1/4 of the things the iPad can. Why? The display works very well for its intended purpose.
I disagree. I believe it brings less, value-wise, than a basic laptop. And I think consumers are more attracted to the iPad because they want it, rather than a justifiable need. (In the sense that, in 2011, you "need" a computer)
But as you said, it is relative.
Steve Jobs quits!
That can't be a good sign in regards to his health.
The great man has resurrected Apple to what it is today will step down. What a massive void to fill.
Apple will go on but without that unique lead and figurehead. Damn...
That can't be a good sign in regards to his health.
The great man has resurrected Apple to what it is today will step down. What a massive void to fill.
Apple will go on but without that unique lead and figurehead. Damn...
Well, if the units are correct, they expect every living person in the world to buy around 50 tablets each year come 2015. Even if the units should be "thousands", they still expect 1/20 of the world population to buy a new tablet in 2015.
Note that that graph is "shipped in that year", not cumulative (if it were cumulative they expect Apple to essentially ship no more iPads by 2015? Um, okay.)
Personally, this is just extrapolated fluff. They have two data points, both increasing. They conclude that Apple's numbers are going to level off quickly, while the others' numbers are going to pick up steam.
I think the more likely scenario is that the majority of the market has "a" tablet of some sort within two years, and at that point sales are replacements of existing tablets / second tablets for families / etc. The commanding lead Apple has now will continue if that's the scenario, because both replacements and second units tend to stay within the "family" of the first unit.
Barring a colossal Apple projectile-based foot-peircing, I think it is unlikely that Apple will not still own this market by much more than 50-50 in 2013. If Apple continues to fire on all cylinders, there's a decent chance that their market share will actually significantly increase in the next several years.
I know many people that are completely dropping PC's and notebooks for an iPad. It does everything they want a computer to do. Surf the net, watch you tube video's, check Facebook, send/receive email, instant messaging, photo's, music etc etc.
The only people that really need the horsepower and/or physical keyboard are professionals and gamers, which do not make up the majority of users. A lot of gamers are switching to consoles.
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