The thing about Blu-Ray is that it will probably die as a medium. Sony had the field alone but never got universal release from the producers. Now it seems more likely that downloads in a 1080 environment (or even 720 as the cable types would like to have it) will take over. Why disc? FCP to drive is equal or greater than blue-ray.
I disagree. First, 1080p takes a lot of bandwidth. Some people in urban and suburban areas have access to big pipes, but the majority of broadband users are stuck around 3-5 mbps. Second, there are millions of rural dwellers than can't even get "high speed" broadband. They are stuck at 1mbps or slower. That speed would make 1080p downloads painful. Third, as the demand for larger data files increases ISPs are going to devise a way to limit bandwidth. Time-Warner may have aborted it's "measured service" idea, but some hybrid will develop. Hard d/l caps are coming.
Add to all of this, the largest portion of the population is baby-boomers, who grew up with physical media and have an affection for it. They also are the ones mostly likely to have big screen TVs (55" and up) where 1080p is going to make a difference.
At this point, the problem with ANY HD movie medium is that when HD costs 2-3x more consumers are unwilling to pay for it. The same was true when CDs first came out (My first CD cost $20. The same music on cassette would have cost me $12.) as well as DVD (My first DVD cost $32. The same movie on VHS was around $18...not that I would have bought it on VHS, I would have rented it). HD media (all varieties) have to come down in price more. People are not willing to pay a premium.
Blu-Ray is just experiencing a slow adoption rate, but then again, so is HD in general. Look how many channels are not HD, not even fake HD. Eventually everything will catch up and Sony has shown to be very patient when it comes to seeding standards. Heck, Memory Stick is still kicking. Memory Stick!