Apple Watch Sales Estimated at 5.1 Million in Holiday Quarter, Swiss Watch Sales in Trouble

[Easttime]

I'd never buy a Swiss watch, but my Apple Watch is useful morning to night, and gives me time on its nightstand. But maybe that's just me and a few million others.

 

[BvizioN]

People might purchase an Apple watch instead of a Swiss watch for now, but the Apple watch is essentially a disposable. After 2 years, the battery won't work, a new version will be released with new features, and the overall design will change as fashion trends usually do.

So what? Mobile phones are disposable? Like everything else digital! Time telling is meaningless nowdays as you would get that info from anywhere around you (starting with your mobile phone) Smart watches go far beyond then just telling what time it is. I personally think we are probably the last generation to wear mechanical watches, not saying no one will wear them in a future but they will be more like pocket watches today.

 

[RobertMartens]

Does your watch tell you what year it is?

Get it, I mean like, does it say 1984? Yuk Yuk.

 

[Smartass]

Comparing sells numbers between swiss watches and Smartwatches is like comparing sales numbers of Rolls Royce to a Toyota.

 

[Teon]

Smart watch is nice. I want them.

 

[xDKP]

People might purchase an Apple watch instead of a Swiss watch for now, but the Apple watch is essentially a disposable. After 2 years, the battery won't work, a new version will be released with new features, and the overall design will change as fashion trends usually do.

But after dabbling in the 'smart watch' arena, many (not all) people will go back to just wanting a classic timepiece that looks good with casual and formal attire, and isn't the same watch as a 16 year old high school student's.

There is room in the world for both of these types of products and they're not really in competition.

I know how you feel - I also think the Apple Watch will open a lot of eyes to the craftsmanship of a mechanical timepiece. But the biggest risk for the watch industry here, is how long will it take? Too long and some of them might be really hurt on sales, profits and maybe even die - but we will see.. I am a BIG watch lover - have 10 watches, ranging from a couple of quarts, to a Tag Heuer, a couple of vintage Omegas and a (awesome) SKX007 scuba watch... And I'm currently not wearing anything but my AW....

This comparison seems a bit off. I mean, should Rolls Royce and Aston Martin be worried that their market share is small compared to BMW and Mercedes because they sold a lot of 5 Series and CLKs (who in turn should worry about Ford selling a lot of F-150s and Fiestas)?

I know that smartwatches (and apple in particular) are trying to position themselves as luxury purchases, but they're not the same market as Swiss watches.

People who want an analogue timepiece with a mechanical movement are always going to be out there. They might even also buy a smartwatch!

I get what you mean and no they shouldn't ... But again, you only have one wrist with the space for a watch (people wearing two should stop) so no matter how not-competing the products are, you might hold back with a expensive time piece, if you wear a AW all day, every day, and love it....

 

[ApfelKuchen]

There's a robust steady demand for true Luxury Swiss Watches amongst successful wealthy people. Always has been and always will. Starting at $15,000 on up to the high end of the market, not to be confused with the very top of the market, is where hand crafted precision luxury Chronograph Models reside. Prices range from $50,000 to $120,000. This segment of the market has been growing steadily since 2001. Make no mistake, Apple isn't even relevant nor able to impact these fine timepieces.

Apple Watch is a nice product.
But to suggest that it's comparable to Luxury Swiss Watches is sheer lunacy.

Fashion and high-end jewelry are not necessarily the same thing... Apple made the right move by making the Watch a fashion item, otherwise, it would be relegated, along with the other smart watches, to the same category as the old Timex LCD digital watches... never ready for prime time. But they are a fashion item, which means individual models can fall out of style as quickly as smartphone models. This, of course, is a technological necessity until the tech plateaus. Battery life will improve, cases will slim, shapes and finishes will morph, and capabilities expand... a 3- or 4-year replacement cycle at $350 will be fine for much of the middle class, provided they are at least as useful as a conventional watch (which they already are).

I waded through several pages of comments, and nobody said, "Not bad, that at least met the pundits expectations for the holiday period." I guess the bashers would rather ignore evidence to the contrary, and the boosters may be disappointed that it wasn't 10 million??

I know, it's branded as a Watch, but it really isn't. It's the beginning of wearables. The point is not necessarily to have a timepiece on your wrist. We're in a transition from physical control to wireless recognition and voice control. Wherever we go, there will be systems capable of recognizing who we are and adapting/interacting as appropriate. Car Play, Home Kit, Watch, Apple TV, ApplePay... It doesn't matter whether we're wearing a Watch, a Google Glass-Equivalent, a locket, fob, ring, earpiece... anything with a microphone for voice recognition, some sort of output/display, and the radios needed for short-range communication.

I think Swiss watches are safe for many years to come. They're not really endangered. It's not a competition. People who love them and crave them still will. It's the utilitarian timepieces that are endangered.

I wear a Watch, but I gave up on wearing watches a long time ago - just didn't fit my desires, tastes, or lifestyle. Like they might say at weddings, Switzerland isn't losing a customer, Apple is gaining a sum.

 

[OllyW]

Question for the apple watch owners: If there was no apple watched released last year, or ever....would you have bought a swiss based watch last year.

For apple to steal sales to threaten the swiss watch...there would have to be the condition if there was no apple watch that for real no BS the money spent would have gotten a swiss watch.

Except for the few who own both...I can hazard a guess this is not many. Just something to consider.

That's the big question.

I know Swiss watch sales have been down this year partly due to the financial difficulties in their biggest markets in Asia and the revaluation of the Swiss franc so it would be interesting to know exactly how many sales have been lost to the Apple Watch and other smartwatches.

 

[Neodym]

Plus the Apple watch is FUGLY as hell, every time I see it I'm amazed that a company like Apple actually released it.

That lies in the eye of the beholder. Actually I find most analog watches at least boring, if not outright ugly in design. The latter especially with watches that sport more complications, so the clock face is cluttered with small hands, numbers and whatnot.

The Apple Watch has a very clean, nearly "Bauhaus" style design, but _can_ also offer more details in the clock face if the owner feels like it (together with fitting bands, if someone really wants a harmonized appearance).

Yes, analogue watches will always have a certain following, but in an increasingly digitalized world I expect that they'll become a small niche over time. Perhaps similar to vinyl records: Enthusiasts and collectors may be interested, but the mainstream will evaluate things more pragmatically and prefer the advantages of a digitalized product.
[doublepost=1455871181][/doublepost]

Comparing sells numbers between swiss watches and Smartwatches is like comparing sales numbers of Rolls Royce to a Toyota.

I wasn't aware that Rolls Royce sells millions of cars each year ...

 

[plexdk]

iPad did well at first as a niche product and we see where thats headed now............

iPad isn't a niche product.. People just don't upgrade it every year, like a phone. iPad is more like a computer, you dont upgrade until it doesn't satisfy anymore.

 

[FightTheFuture]

but the Apple watch is essentially a disposable. After 2 years, the battery won't work

Dude what Apple device has ever had a battery fail after a few years?

 

[RedWeasel]

There is room in the world for both of these types of products and they're not really in competition.

I know that smartwatches (and apple in particular) are trying to position themselves as luxury purchases, but they're not the same market as Swiss watches.

The thing is, they are in competition and in the same market. The swiss watch market is not just high end mechanical pieces like Rolex, but also quartz based watches in the mid range that are in the same price segment (or cheaper) as the Apple Watch. Often, one company will actually house different brands along the whole spectrum.

Swatch Group for example makes watches from inexpensive Swatch models starting at like 50 USD through mid range brands like Tissot up to high end brands like Omega or Blancpain (yes, it's actually all the same company). They even do OEM components for other brands like TAG.

And all those low end and mid range products do produce quite a bit of revenue. So competition in that area absolutely has potential to hurt these companies.

That being said, the reason for declining sales is probably more related to weaker economy in areas like Hong Kong etc.
[doublepost=1455873502][/doublepost]

Don't know where they got their numbers from. Tissot alone sold 22 million watches last year. Add another 10 by Rolex - and that's just two companies for you.

I don't know where you got your numbers from.

Rolex sold around 500 000 or 600 000 watches in 2015. Which is roughly in the same ballpark they do most years. They are nowhere near 10 Mio. watches per year.

Tissot - which is only in a slight higher price segment compared to Apple Watch - produces something along the lines of 4 Mio. watches per year (they also do stuff for other brands like Certina).

 

[Lennholm]

To be honest, smart watches are still a niche product category and I believe the fact Swiss watch sales are declining has more to do with the fact that young people are increasingly uninterested in wrist watches. I haven't used a wrist watch since I got my first cellphone with a built in clock.

 

[Keane16]

analog watch > smart watch all day for me.

I used to be the same.

Even after I got my Apple Watch I said I'd still wear my nice analogue watches for special occasions. For the first month I did, but now my analogue watches sit in their boxes. I love them, the craftsmanship, the design. There's just something about nice analogue watches that I like. But unfortunately for the foreseeable future I won't be wearing them. The features of the Apple Watch have definitely won me over.

 

[daito]

5.1 million last quarter and an estimated 13.6 million units overall in 2015 are excellent number for such a new product. Excellent. It's actually way better than the first year of the iPhone (around 6 million units for its first year). And those numbers look even better when put into perspective towards other type of products on the market today.

For example, in comparison the Xbox One sold 4.81 million units last quarter and 19.84 million units overall in 2015. This means that the Apple Watch sold better during last quarter and it's not very far overall in 2015. And last quarter Microsoft sold around 1.6 million Surface devices. Again, the Apple Watch does better and the Surface platform has been on the market for years.

So quite good, quite good.

 

[maxsix]

To be honest, smart watches are still a niche product category and I believe the fact Swiss watch sales are declining has more to do with the fact that young people are increasingly uninterested in wrist watches. I haven't used a wrist watch since I got my first cellphone with a built in clock.

You've done an excellent job of explaining it. And you're absolutely right.

 

[apolloa]

I would call spin on these facts, plus I would have a Swiss watch anyday over a SmartWatch. Then again that's what I do have haha. I want a SmartBand personally and with any luck Google will make one as Apple sure won't be.
I want to keep my Tissue T Touch on one wrist and a SmartBand on the other. Because one is also a piece of jewellery made from proper stainless steel that doesn't irritate skin.

 

[Recognition]

Three issues with iWatch:
1) 1.2 days battery life needs massive improvement. 1 week minimum.
2) Display must be always on.
3) It is chunky. Needs to be THIN.

Apart from that, the iWatch is second to none.

I'm afraid you can only pick 2 out of the 3 points you have made in order for it to be physically possible.
To have all 3 would most likely be impossible with today's technology. (In my opinion )

 

[StoneJack]

Apples and oranges. A manufactured in China, robot assembled, Apple watch is nothing compared to a beautiful Swiss watch. I love my Tag's and would never wear a chintzy Apple watch to an event worthy of a Tag.

Well, conveyor-manufactured, black Ford is nothing compared to beautiful, hand made, full of expensive wood horse cart, they were saying in 1920s.

 

[peterdevries]

So what? Mobile phones are disposable? Like everything else digital! Time telling is meaningless nowdays as you would get that info from anywhere around you (starting with your mobile phone) Smart watches go far beyond then just telling what time it is. I personally think we are probably the last generation to wear mechanical watches, not saying no one will wear them in a future but they will be more like pocket watches today.

I don´t believe this for a second.

Most people (that includes me) that buy mechanical watches (above the $7000 threshhold) do not buy them because they need accurate timekeeping (I look at my Phone and computer screen for that), but buy / wear them for sentimental value, for what they represent in terms of materials and engineering value or as a statussymbol.

Those three are the major reasons why people buy mechanical watches and unless these three points will be addressed at some point by a digital smartwatch maker, the mechanical watch industry has nothing to worry about.
[doublepost=1455881848][/doublepost]

Well, conveyor-manufactured, black Ford is nothing compared to beautiful, hand made, full of expensive wood horse cart, they were saying in 1920s.

Car analogies do not work in this context.

 

[StoneJack]

I don´t believe this for a second.

Most people (that includes me) that buy mechanical watches (above the $7000 threshhold) do not buy them because they need accurate timekeeping (I look at my Phone and computer screen for that), but buy / wear them for sentimental value, for what they represent in terms of materials and engineering value or as a statussymbol.

Those three are the major reasons why people buy mechanical watches and unless these three points will be addressed at some point by a digital smartwatch maker, the mechanical watch industry has nothing to worry about.
[doublepost=1455881848][/doublepost]

Car analogies do not work in this context.

Well, its not about cars per se... its about obsolete technology being replaced by newer one..

 

[Lemon Mac]

So far no one has remarked to me my AW stainless steel + Milanese loop looks like a toy.

In the same way people dont tend to remark to a tramp/hobo how much they look like a tramp/hobo!

 

[zhenya]

I don´t believe this for a second.

Most people (that includes me) that buy mechanical watches (above the $7000 threshhold) do not buy them because they need accurate timekeeping (I look at my Phone and computer screen for that), but buy / wear them for sentimental value, for what they represent in terms of materials and engineering value or as a statussymbol.

Those three are the major reasons why people buy mechanical watches and unless these three points will be addressed at some point by a digital smartwatch maker, the mechanical watch industry has nothing to worry about.
[doublepost=1455881848][/doublepost]

Car analogies do not work in this context.

What you say is true for some segment of high-end buyers. The problem the Swiss will have if they don't wake up is that even many die-hards like yourself are having a hard time wearing their mechanical watches once they've gotten used to an AW, as the AW is so powerful at encouraging you to have it on your wrist all the time. In theory many like their mechanical watches better, in practice they choose to wear the AW. The second issue is that much of the sales of Swiss watches seems to occur in the mid-tier brands - well under the $7k threshold you specify. This is where the profits likely lay because many of these watches are inexpensive quartz internals with fancy bands, cases, and marketing. This segment of the market is going to get killed by smart watches.

Lastly, what does work in the car analogy is that Ferrari, Bugatti, Rolls Royce, et al would be bankrupt in a few years if they weren't keeping pace with the technological advances the car industry as a whole has seen in recent times. There is room for a few boutique manufacturers who sell on sentimental values, materials and engineering. But the big manufacturers can't get away selling 1980's designs forever when every car sold has cameras, computers and will soon have self driving features. This is the stand the Swiss are holding on to and for the industry as a whole, it can't hold.

 

[StoneJack]

What you say is true for some segment of high-end buyers. The problem the Swiss will have if they don't wake up is that even many die-hards like yourself are having a hard time wearing their mechanical watches once they've gotten used to an AW, as the AW is so powerful at encouraging you to have it on your wrist all the time. In theory many like their mechanical watches better, in practice they choose to wear the AW. The second issue is that much of the sales of Swiss watches seems to occur in the mid-tier brands - well under the $7k threshold you specify. This is where the profits likely lay because many of these watches are inexpensive quartz internals with fancy bands, cases, and marketing. This segment of the market is going to get killed by smart watches.

Lastly, what does work in the car analogy is that Ferrari, Bugatti, Rolls Royce, et al would be bankrupt in a few years if they weren't keeping pace with the technological advances the car industry as a whole has seen in recent times. There is room for a few boutique manufacturers who sell on sentimental values, materials and engineering. But the big manufacturers can't get away selling 1980's designs forever when every car sold has cameras, computers and will soon have self driving features. This is the stand the Swiss are holding on to and for the industry as a whole, it can't hold.

Like is there a market for high end (7000 USD dollars and more) boutique CRT 15 inch displays? /s

 

[igorsky]

As much as I would enjoy an Apple Watch I would rather spend my money on a mechanical watch that won't feel like an obsolete piece of junk in a year or two.

Not sure how you came with this conclusion considering a) you don't own an Apple Watch, and b) it hasn't been around for a year or two.