When it comes to people's cash they will be more resistant to change. But resistant doesn't mean never happen. I've seen a lot of people use Apple Pay in line lately.
But is it going to happen in a short enough period of time to make it worthwhile for the 1000+ banks and CUs that have signed on? I'm imagining a situation where a lot of them decide to no longer offer Apple Pay support at the end of the initial contract simply because it didn't bring in additional revenue like they had hoped.
Also, a lot of retailers with terminals that could support NFC look like they're only going to support chip and signature/PIN and not NFC (such as Target)*. Hopefully only initially but who knows? It still means that people could very well just switch to chip and find no real justification to use anything else.
*Since NFC could easily be enabled before EMV/chip support if the retailer wanted to (especially if you're okay with making people sign for purchases when using Apple Pay), I'm making the assumption that if it's not already turned on, it won't be when chip is finally turned on. This could be an incorrect assumption but we don't know yet considering there's only three major retailers with EMV support right now.