russed said:why would it put them at a disadvantage?
With regards to Ferrari, according to Ross Brawn development of the F2004 ceased if memory serves around Hungary time last year, with any performances increases after that down to just the engine and the tyres, so that the team could begin work on the F2005, which again if memory serves a substantial amount of work on that car was scrapped because of the issues regarding changes to the rules for 2005 and the lateness in which they were clarified. It is thought that this affected Ferrari more, because they had already ceased developing that seasons car and had already pooled resources into this seasons car and thus where further down that path than any of the other teams so had more work to lose.
The specific disadvantage is that the car was not designed for the (significant) rule changes for 2005. Specifically the aero package hasn't been optimised for the 2005 rules, and also the car will not have been designed and optimised for long life tyres and the one engine for 2 races rule.
In recent memory we have only seen minor rule revisions, and as such a team choosing to use the previous seasons car for the first fly-away races wasn't considered to be at a massive disadvantage because the rules (that affected the cars) hadn't really changed, this year the rules have changed significantly and trying to make what is essentially almost a 2 year old design, designed to a certain set of rules competitive with brand new cars designed to completely revised rules very difficult.
That is a disadvantage.
As you say though Ferrari will have the reliabilty advantage, and I think that's what's going to keep them in touch (just) over the first 4 races, but on raw pace I don't thing they're going to be that competitive. Both the new McLaren and Renault are looking awesomely fast in testing, but also appear to be hugely reliable too.
I'm personally not expecting Ferrari to win any of the first 4 races through raw pace, if they do win any I'd guess it'll be more down to the other teams misfortunes.
russed said:they can then get a few extra months of testing their new car and sorting out problems in testing, not during the races.
What you have to consider though is that the F2005 won't be run until after it's launch at the end of this month so they won't really gain any testing advantage over any other team because the other teams will be continuing development of their new cars in the same period, as well as racing them. This is the main catalyst for the '9 other teams' 30 day testing agreement because it'll instantly limit Ferrari's ability to develop the new car. Remember the 30 day testing limit does not come into force until the first race of the season.
Anyway you look at it... Ferrari are, in relation to some teams almost 2 months behind schedule in track developing their new car and a month behind teams like McLaren.
russed said:ferarri have done this for the past few years and they have usually gone on to win the first few races of the season, so any correlation here?
That's because the rules had largely stayed the same so a team wasn't penalised for using the previous years car for the first few fly away races.
This year is different because of the rule changes.
With regards to not making significant changes to a car during a season, I can understand that line of thought, it'd certainly reduce costs, but as has been suggested above, if a team were to discover a significant problem (think MP4-19A that aero and minor tweaking couldn't fix) they'd be stuck with it for the rest of the season and thus making the grid even less competitive.
Also I can't help but think that such a rule would give an even greater advantage to Ferrari, especially considering McLarens MP4-17D/MP4-18/MP4-19A/MP4-19B programs within just 2 seasons and Williams ill faited issues at the start of both the 2003 and 2004 seasons when they encountered serious design flaws in their cars in both years.