I think the one factor thats most important is how well people take to the PS3. If Sony can up its supply and get more of those systems into each home then i think the concept of blue ray will catch on. It seems like more people are concerned about there not being enough rather then the price that they cost. People stood in line all around the country, hoping to get one. Doesn't seem like the price is much of a factor.
I remember when i first got my ps2. Lost most that i knew, i got mine almost 2 years later. But even by then that was the first DVD player in my house.
The new PS3 seems to function as an all around system. It plays games, shows movies dvd or blue ray, it has a hard drive, it can be connected to the internet. Its very possible to probably run the system as a computer using linux OS software.
I think Sony is going to be just fine, they fell off in the portable market with there walkman line but i dont think there going to loose out in the long run with the video games.