iPhone 5s Nears 100% Availability in Apple's U.S. Retail Stores

[TallManNY]

Antitrust on their high prices maybe, a Monopoly on products I don't think so; there is enough competition.

For now there are a lot of competitors. But ALL of the competitors in the high price smartphone area seem to have lost a lot of money on their phones last year, except for Samsung.

What happens next year? I assume HTC, Nokia, Motorola, BBRY, LG, etc. make another flagship phone because what else are they going to do? But what if that also loses money? What happens the year after that? How many of these guys are around making a flagship phone two years from now? What if Apple's next phone is really a big improvement? What if they innovate again and in a big way? it wouldn't really take all that much more to make the rest of these folks have to pack up shop would it? They must be hanging by a thread right now. Can any of them drop a billion dollars next year on R&D? Apple can drop $5 billion on its phone without batting an eye. (Yes, I know they've never spent that much, but they could. The others, except Samsung, can't.)

Ad buyers are discovering that advertising on Android phones is much less valuable than iOS. That ad money is going to drop away. Advertisers will push the price of those ads down if they don't start seeing more results. With ad money dropping away, then developers are going to decrease developing for android phones. Already many big players (see Nike Run App for their fuel band) don't make an Android version. This might get worse as the Android apps can't deliver the revenue that was thought would be there based on those market share numbers. Right now their budgets are based on business models from last year that don't seem to be coming true.

What happens if an iWatch is created and it is a hit? The ecosystem gets stronger, and the developers get more focused on iOS. Then the ecosystem gets stronger. Consumer have more synergies from staying in ecosystem because the best app run across all their devices. Then the ecosystem gets stronger. Apple TV becomes more useful and all your devices work with the $100 devices connected to your TV. The ecosystem gets stronger.

You can see how this plays out over the next two years, right. I'm not saying I know this for sure. But it doesn't take too many leaps and assumptions to get the point I'm making.

 

[Klae17]

This is the start. Here is it "just" a judge appointed Apple "monitor".

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303997604579242320326157900

Yes, the WSJ and Apple object to this. But their objecting doesn't change that this is happening.

The market share is just based on sales numbers. Usage of device is much more telling. Based on usage, Apple's share of digital activity is growing. See Black Friday sales ordered through iOS devices as compared to Android devices. It could easily grow very quickly from here (example, Apple TV starts allowing Apps and iOS to run in full effect).

I'm talking about an issue that is several years away. And any disruption could change that. But I see many of my friends feeling (happily) locked into iOS and OSX devices with no easy way to change. The trend is more and more activity going through a very closed ecosystem.

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You might have to wait for a lawsuit for that check the box. Or maybe not. But there will certainly be a lot of discussion before Apple decides to take themselves out of that 30% cut on software sales.

By the way, as for tarred and feathered, I got about 6 or 7 replies saying I was wrong. So I'm definitely getting shot down here.

Uhh.... They could just switch to android or stop using a phone. No one forces you to use Apple.

 

[Rad99004]

For now there are a lot of competitors. But ALL of the competitors in the high price smartphone area seem to have lost a lot of money on their phones last year, except for Samsung.

What happens next year? I assume HTC, Nokia, Motorola, BBRY, LG, etc. make another flagship phone because what else are they going to do? But what if that also loses money? What happens the year after that? How many of these guys are around making a flagship phone two years from now? What if Apple's next phone is really a big improvement? What if they innovate again and in a big way? it wouldn't really take all that much more to make the rest of these folks have to pack up shop would it? They must be hanging by a thread right now. Can any of them drop a billion dollars next year on R&D? Apple can drop $5 billion on its phone without batting an eye. (Yes, I know they've never spent that much, but they could. The others, except Samsung, can't.)

Ad buyers are discovering that advertising on Android phones is much less valuable than iOS. That ad money is going to drop away. Advertisers will push the price of those ads down if they don't start seeing more results. With ad money dropping away, then developers are going to decrease developing for android phones. Already many big players (see Nike Run App for their fuel band) don't make an Android version. This might get worse as the Android apps can't deliver the revenue that was thought would be there based on those market share numbers. Right now their budgets are based on business models from last year that don't seem to be coming true.

What happens if an iWatch is created and it is a hit? The ecosystem gets stronger, and the developers get more focused on iOS. Then the ecosystem gets stronger. Consumer have more synergies from staying in ecosystem because the best app run across all their devices. Then the ecosystem gets stronger. Apple TV becomes more useful and all your devices work with the $100 devices connected to your TV. The ecosystem gets stronger.

You can see how this plays out over the next two years, right. I'm not saying I know this for sure. But it doesn't take too many leaps and assumptions to get the point I'm making.

I'd say the future looks like Apple, Samsung, Microsoft (Nokia/Surface), Motorola/Google.

All the companies have deep pockets Apple and Samsung will take the biggest piece of the pie. Microsoft and Google will be fighting for the rest. I speculate that Microsoft will eventually have the bigger chunk over Google. Google may even dump the phones but continue with tablets.

I still do criticize Apple for what it charges for bumps in memory on devices. Its almost criminal. Yes people have a choice to buy or not to buy the product. It would just be nice if they would make it more reasonable. If the products had upgradeable memory then the consumer would have a choice to add it later. Without that option a consumer needs to choose to get what they need at a inflated price or under buy and have a product that will not be useable for as long.

I do understand that memory cards are not as functional or fast, this doesn't mean that manufactures can't offer memory upgrades like a desktop computer has that plug in like a SD card.

 

[TallManNY]

Uhh.... They could just switch to android or stop using a phone. No one forces you to use Apple.

Not having a smartphone is going to be very hard very soon in the US. And besides it is very useful so I can't imagine why someone would want to be without one.

Android is definitely a viable alternative. For now. If things keep going though we might have just two Android manufacturers doing flagship phones, Google (selling good stuff cheap because they capture ad and personal info revenue) and Samsung (because they can afford to do R&D to create flagship devices that are on par with the iPhone). Unless the China cheepies can make it to the US in volume and at even lower prices than what Google can offer, I don't think there will be that many options two years from now.

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I'd say the future looks like Apple, Samsung, Microsoft (Nokia/Surface), Motorola/Google.

All the companies have deep pockets Apple and Samsung will take the biggest piece of the pie. Microsoft and Google will be fighting for the rest. I speculate that Microsoft will eventually have the bigger chunk over Google. Google may even dump the phones but continue with tablets.

I still do criticize Apple for what it charges for bumps in memory on devices. Its almost criminal. Yes people have a choice to buy or not to buy the product. It would just be nice if they would make it more reasonable. If the products had upgradeable memory then the consumer would have a choice to add it later. Without that option a consumer needs to choose to get what they need at a inflated price or under buy and have a product that will not be useable for as long.

I do understand that memory cards are not as functional or fast, this doesn't mean that manufactures can't offer memory upgrades like a desktop computer has that plug in like a SD card.

It is going to be very hard to compete with Google because of their willingness to sell phones at a loss on the hardware. Google can do that because it captures revenue from sale through those devices of personal information and time. Microsoft might be able to do that, but for now it seems they just have to drop billions each year supporting their phone division. They can certainly afford to do that. And I think Mcsft actually has to do this to stay relevant as we enter a post-PC world.

But wait until next year's apps come out for the 64-bit iPhone. They are going to start to really blow away what is available on the unsupported WP8. That isn't going to get Mcsft a lot of repeat buyers out of its already miniscule portion of the smartphone market.

 

[Klae17]

Not having a smartphone is going to be very hard very soon in the US. And besides it is very useful so I can't imagine why someone would want to be without one.

Android is definitely a viable alternative. For now. If things keep going though we might have just two Android manufacturers doing flagship phones, Google (selling good stuff cheap because they capture ad and personal info revenue) and Samsung (because they can afford to do R&D to create flagship devices that are on par with the iPhone). Unless the China cheepies can make it to the US in volume and at even lower prices than what Google can offer, I don't think there will be that many options two years from now.

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It is going to be very hard to compete with Google because of their willingness to sell phones at a loss on the hardware. Google can do that because it captures revenue from sale through those devices of personal information and time. Microsoft might be able to do that, but for now it seems they just have to drop billions each year supporting their phone division. They can certainly afford to do that. And I think Mcsft actually has to do this to stay relevant as we enter a post-PC world.

But wait until next year's apps come out for the 64-bit iPhone. They are going to start to really blow away what is available on the unsupported WP8. That isn't going to get Mcsft a lot of repeat buyers out of its already miniscule portion of the smartphone market.

It's up to people if they want to use smartphones. Nothing wrong with doing it old school.

 

[TallManNY]

It's up to people if they want to use smartphones. Nothing wrong with doing it old school.

There is something tremendously wrong with old school; you don't have the internet in your pocket. Having access to nearly the sum total of human knowledge at all times is amazing. So is having access to information on world events. And these phones are just getting started. Soon the A.I. in them will be so good that you will also basically be carrying around a personal assistant at all times, a secretary in your pocket. No one will want to go back to old school dumb phones.

 

[Klae17]

There is something tremendously wrong with old school; you don't have the internet in your pocket. Having access to nearly the sum total of human knowledge at all times is amazing. So is having access to information on world events. And these phones are just getting started. Soon the A.I. in them will be so good that you will also basically be carrying around a personal assistant at all times, a secretary in your pocket. No one will want to go back to old school dumb phones.

Then get a laptop.