M4+ Chip Generation - Speculation Megathread [MERGED]

[MegaBlue]

So based on that, we can expect some M4 to be release/announce in October/November 2024

Yes, that's my prediction. Of course, I could be wrong. We don't know for sure. But there is strong evidence.

Seems closer to 1.5years than yearly.

M1 was November 2020 until June 2022, so 17 months from M1 until M2.
M2 went June 2022 until October 2023, so (edit: I can’t math. It’s 16, not 14) 16 months from M2 until M3.

I think each cycle is about 1.5yrs, with the Ultra chip arriving shortly before the next generation. There were only 3 months between M1 Ultra and M2, and there were only 4 months between M2 Ultra and M3.

M1 Ultra took 14 months form M1, and M2 Ultra took a year from M2. The only major differentiator here is that M3 debuted M3, M3 Pro, and M3 Max all at once, so they may decide to move their release schedules up. Assuming it's not a factor though, I think M4 would be more likely to arrive in the first half of 2025, probably no later than March.

 

[Boil]

Seems closer to 1.5years than yearly.

1.5 years being 18 months...

M1 was November 2020 until June 2022, so 17 months from M1 until M2.
M2 went June 2022 until October 2023, so 14 months from M2 until M3.

I think each cycle is about 1.5yrs, with the Ultra chip arriving shortly before the next generation. There were only 3 months between M1 Ultra and M2, and there were only 4 months between M2 Ultra and M3.

M1 to M2 was 17 months. so 1 month short of 1.5 years...

M2 to M3 reduces that gap by 3 months, so just 2 months over 1 year...

M1 Ultra took 14 months form M1, and M2 Ultra took a year from M2. The only major differentiator here is that M3 debuted M3, M3 Pro, and M3 Max all at once, so they may decide to move their release schedules up. Assuming it's not a factor though, I think M4 would be more likely to arrive in the first half of 2025, probably no later than March.

If we reduce the time span between Mn generations to 1 year, we can expect M4 products in October 2024...

Whether or not Apple sticks with the Mn designation (presumably the M indicating Mobile), I could see a line-up of SoCs dedicated to the high-end desktop Macs (Mac Studio & Mac Pro), drawing a bit more power and delivering a bit more performance, but still pulling a good portion less power than discrete CPU & GPU combos...

Maybe Apple, having achieved a goal of moving the Apple silicon line-up to yearly updates, decides to introduce (with product availability October 2024) the high-end of the new desktop SoC line-up at WWDC 2024; M4 Extreme Mac Pro Cube, anyone...? ;^p

 

[Tagbert]

Whether or not Apple sticks with the Mn designation (presumably the M indicating Mobile), I could see a line-up of SoCs dedicated to the desktop Macs (iMac, Mac mini, Mac Studio, Mac Pro), drawing a bit more power and delivering a bit more performance, but still pulling a good portion less power than discrete CPU & GPU combos...

I think the “M” is for Mac. The only “mobile” chips are the A-series chips. You can’t look at the M2 Ultra and not see that as a desktop chip.

 

[Boil]

I think the “M” is for Mac. The only “mobile” chips are the A-series chips. You can’t look at the M2 Ultra and not see that as a desktop chip.

Mn series SoCs (excepting the Mn Ultra variant) are in tablets and laptops, devices designed for mobile usage...

Ultra SoC is definitely a desktop chip, but it is made up of two mobile chips...

I edited my earlier post to indicate that desktop-specific SoCs would be for the higher-end desktop Macs, the Mac Studio (Mn Ultra models) & Mac Pro (Mn Ultra & Mn Extreme)...

 

[casperes1996]

Mn series SoCs (excepting the Mn Ultra variant) are in tablets and laptops, devices designed for mobile usage...

Ultra SoC is definitely a desktop chip, but it is made up of two mobile chips...

I edited my earlier post to indicate that desktop-specific SoCs would be for the higher-end desktop Macs, the Mac Studio (Mn Ultra models) & Mac Pro (Mn Ultra & Mn Extreme)...

Naturally the M stands for Motion. I mean the whole line of apple silicon chips naked M began as motion co-processors. Does make it a little confusing they went back to M1 so many years after M7 and M8 though.

Joking aside though I do agree that it’s most likely for Mac. While iPads use them too they are primarily designed for Mac. And the regular iPad and iPad Mini are still on A chips like iPhones. But the name may become more and more of a legacy if it is meant to be Mac as Vision Pro has it too.

Any thoughts about A standing for anything?
I’m thinking the S series for Apple Watch is system in package. -> SIP -> S. H series for headphone. And R for reality. My best guess for A is just that it’s AArch

 

[thenewperson]

Joking aside though I do agree that it’s most likely for Mac. While iPads use them too they are primarily designed for Mac. And the regular iPad and iPad Mini are still on A chips like iPhones. But the name may become more and more of a legacy if it is meant to be Mac as Vision Pro has it too.

I think it’s complicated. According to Hector Martin the internal name for M1 was A14X and the AX chips *were* iPad chips. I think they did name it M for Mac though.

Any thoughts about A standing for anything?
I’m thinking the S series for Apple Watch is system in package. -> SIP -> S. H series for headphone. And R for reality. My best guess for A is just that it’s AArch

I think this just stood for first lol

 

[Basic75]

Any thoughts about A standing for anything?

Apple!

The first A-chip was the A4. Even though it still used an off-the-shelf ARM Cortex A8 core it was the first Apple-designed SoC.

 

[MayaUser]

I foresee years of delays, yield issues, and poor efficiency.

For Intel , of course

 

[Boil]

Any thoughts about A standing for anything?

Apple...?

 

[theorist9]

Any thoughts about A standing for anything?

The A-series were named after Steve Jobs, since he was famously an A-h***.

 

[casperes1996]

I think it’s complicated. According to Hector Martin the internal name for M1 was A14X and the AX chips *were* iPad chips. I think they did name it M for Mac though.



I think this just stood for first lol

Apple!

The first A-chip was the A4. Even though it still used an off-the-shelf ARM Cortex A8 core it was the first Apple-designed SoC.

Apple...?

I really should’ve thought of that. Thanks

Makes sense M1 was considered A14X. But the M series has some traits that seem useless on iPad like TSO memory mode

 

[leman]

I really should’ve thought of that. Thanks

Makes sense M1 was considered A14X. But the M series has some traits that seem useless on iPad like TSO memory mode

M1 was considered A14X because it had pretty much the same construction as A12X. TSO mode is also present in the A-cores btw. It’s the same hardware, just organized a bit differently.

 

[casperes1996]

M1 was considered A14X because it had pretty much the same construction as A12X. TSO mode is also present in the A-cores btw. It’s the same hardware, just organized a bit differently.

It’s in newer A chips sure. But it wasn’t there before firestorm and ice storm that would go into M1 and A14, right? I see no purpose for it in an iOS world

 

[leman]

It’s in newer A chips sure. But it wasn’t there before firestorm and ice storm that would go into M1 and A14, right? I see no purpose for it in an iOS world

It’s true, it was introduced in Firestorm.

 

[thenewperson]

I really should’ve thought of that. Thanks

Makes sense M1 was considered A14X. But the M series has some traits that seem useless on iPad like TSO memory mode

That’s true. I’ve also seen the said for Thunderbolt capability but that one makes a lot less sense since the iPad Pro was on that path anyway.

I guess it’s just most accurate to say that multiple overlapping device types were what the Mx chips were made for and we can’t just designate it as the Mac chip or the iPad chip or whatever. I do think M is for Mac simply because the opportunity was there at the time as it launched on the Mac first.

 

[casperes1996]

It’s true, it was introduced in Firestorm.

Right. To my mind that means "designed for M1", even if the core design is used across several chip categories for economy of scale.

I guess it’s just most accurate to say that multiple overlapping device types were what the Mx chips were made for and we can’t just designate it as the Mac chip or the iPad chip or whatever. I do think M is for Mac simply because the opportunity was there at the time as it launched on the Mac first.

Undoubtably the M-series are designed with multiple product categories in mind. Being a continuation of the AX/AZ chips they most certainly have iPads in mind for them at the very least, and Vision too now - perhaps TV in the future - But I still believe Macs to be the primary and first focus for the M series and thus its namesake. I guess we generally agree and are just discussing nuances

 

[MegaBlue]

1.5 years being 18 months...



M1 to M2 was 17 months. so 1 month short of 1.5 years...

M2 to M3 reduces that gap by 3 months, so just 2 months over 1 year...

Good thing I said closer to 1.5 years and not exactly 1.5 years!

Also, M2 debuted in June 2022 and M3 was October 2023. That’s not 2 months over 1 year, that’s 4.

 

[Boil]

M2 went June 2022 until October 2023, so (edit: I can’t math. It’s 16, not 14) 16 months from M2 until M3.

Also, M2 debuted in June 2022 and M3 was October 2023. That’s not 2 months over 1 year, that’s 4.

LOL, yeah, I didn't check your math either...! ;^p

 

[streetfunk]

new rumors vs. M4

Macs to Get AI-Focused M4 Chips Starting in Late 2024

Apple will begin updating its Mac lineup with M4 chips in late 2024, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. The M4 chip will be focused on...

www.macrumors.com

 

[MegaBlue]

new rumors vs. M4

Macs to Get AI-Focused M4 Chips Starting in Late 2024

Apple will begin updating its Mac lineup with M4 chips in late 2024, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. The M4 chip will be focused on...

www.macrumors.com

I think if we do see M4 this year, I don't think it'll be earlier than October, like with M3. If this is true, that means M3 Ultra will debut during WWDC, which is faster than M1U and M2U. I feel like if we see M3U at WWDC, M4 will be this fall. If we don't see it, I think it's more likely M4 is at the beginning of 2025.

That, or there's not going to be an M3U and they just jump straight to M4U.

 

[streetfunk]

That, or there's not going to be an M3U and they just jump straight to M4U.

M3U is what ?

I´ve seen speculations that apple wiill omit one chip generation vs. the MacMini/Studio desktops. A to me reasonable argument has been the sales numbers vs. the big -$- picture.

Would be great if the release of the M4 would bring the M4 desktops to market at same time as the newset jadda-jadda-lookwhatwehave i-phone.


vs. sales and $ numbers, the desktops might play no role.
But vs. apples reputation behind the scenes, i would say they absolutely DO play a role.
And: folks develop new tech. Great things are developed on these machines.
The Desktops DO play a role !

but vs. sales, keeping a certain pace up, it might make sense to jump directly to M4 with the desktops.
I start to hope for just that to happen.


( so so SO MUCH waiting for "my" M3 desktop to come)

 

[MegaBlue]

M3U is what ?

M3 Ultra

 

[senttoschool]

Seems closer to 1.5years than yearly.

M1 was November 2020 until June 2022, so 17 months from M1 until M2.
M2 went June 2022 until October 2023, so 14 months from M2 until M3.

I think each cycle is about 1.5yrs, with the Ultra chip arriving shortly before the next generation. There were only 3 months between M1 Ultra and M2, and there were only 4 months between M2 Ultra and M3.

M1 Ultra took 14 months form M1, and M2 Ultra took a year from M2. The only major differentiator here is that M3 debuted M3, M3 Pro, and M3 Max all at once, so they may decide to move their release schedules up. Assuming it's not a factor though, I think M4 would be more likely to arrive in the first half of 2025, probably no later than March.

You're looking at averages. It's been 3 generations. Hardly worth using averages. Instead, look at the last 3 generations and see that the M series followed the A series by 1 month in 2/3 generations with the lone exception the crazy covid years.

Anyways, Gurman says M4 later this year which means 1 year cadence and following the A series closely again.

Macs to Get AI-Focused M4 Chips Starting in Late 2024

Apple will begin updating its Mac lineup with M4 chips in late 2024, according to Bloomberg's Mark Gurman. The M4 chip will be focused on...

www.macrumors.com

I don't know why people still think it's 18 months based on one lone covid generation.

 

[Chuckeee]

Anyways, Gurman says M4 later this year which means 1 year cadence and following the A series closely again.

I don't know why people still think it's 18 months based on one lone covid generation

Perhaps because of previous experiences with the accuracy of Gurman’s schedule predictions.

 

[casperes1996]

That, or there's not going to be an M3U and they just jump straight to M4U.

Would be awkward with M4 Max out in a 16” MBP beating out the Ultra tier studio and Mac Pro stuck on M2U though wouldn’t it?

I feel pretty convinced of wwdc M3U