Next Gen iPhone = No Upgrade Price?

[uiop.]

Why do people expect special treatment to buy the iPhone. It is standard industry practice that if you recieve a carrier discount phone, you will not be elligable for another discount until you fufil your contract terms.

We all know that the original iPhone was not discounted and that's why the original iPhone owners were elligable for the discount price on the iPhone 3g. Why is this even debated. Why would ATT subsidize your next iPhone when you have not completed you contract, and thus ATT has recouped their money back from you.

Because Apple is special.

 

[chrmjenkins]

Apple has every incentive to treat iphone users special if it means they will buy like clockwork every year (they get 400/500 per phone). AT&T has incentive to treat Apple special because they have iPhone exclusivity. Hence, it's reasonable to assume some deal will still exist.

 

[Zmmyt]

I'm hoping for a subsidised upgrade and a renewal of the 18/24 month contract.

 

[aluren]

ATT will not subsidize the new iphone for current iphone 3G owners. ATT recoups the subsidized amount over the 2 yr contract. if u don't fulfill the 2 yr contract, they will be losing money, and obviously they're not gonna do it.

 

[OrangeDog]

I don't think the 2009 iPhone will be that big a deal.

I think Apple will make large hardware improvements on a 24 month roster.

 

[Mac In School]

Why do people expect special treatment to buy the iPhone. It is standard industry practice that if you recieve a carrier discount phone, you will not be elligable for another discount until you fufil your contract terms.

I don't think people have really thought it through yet. They think of the iPhone as an Apple product, and kind of forget about the "standard industry practice". They will be reminded. It will make sense to them, but many won't be happy, imo.

 

[Mr. Owl]

I bought mine shortly after the initial release of the 3G. The next-gen would have to be pretty spectacular (and the resale on my 3G would have to be pretty darn good) to make me even consider getting one.

(I'm pretty sure that I've come pretty close to having my friends and family do an Apple product intervention on me at times, so that's saying something.)

 

[jason72780]

Apple has every incentive to treat iphone users special if it means they will buy like clockwork every year (they get 400/500 per phone). AT&T has incentive to treat Apple special because they have iPhone exclusivity. Hence, it's reasonable to assume some deal will still exist.

Of course AT&T has incentive to treat iPhone users special. Because there won't be any backlash from the many more users who aren't treated special. People normally have no opinion when others get special treatment that they don't.

 

[chrmjenkins]

Of course AT&T has incentive to treat iPhone users special. Because there won't be any backlash from the many more users who aren't treated special. People normally have no opinion when others get special treatment that they don't.

Yeah, because so many people complained this time around. People who don't have iphones and don't want them are agitated because they aren't allowed to pay 300 for a phone

 

[eplchamps0304]

I don't think people have really thought it through yet. They think of the iPhone as an Apple product, and kind of forget about the "standard industry practice". They will be reminded. It will make sense to them, but many won't be happy, imo.

exactly. Remember what happened last year, cheaper phone and more expensive plans.

 

[Mikey B]

Personally, I don't get my so many people think that AT&T (or other carriers) are going to let them off of the subsidy-hook so easy. They don't subsidize phones out of the goodness of their heart. I just don't see what incentive they have to subsidize another phone for customers in the first year of their contract. They know full well that a percentage will upgrade no matter what the price, and that most iPhone customers will upgrade when eligible. The subsidy is to lure NEW customers, not retain old.

 

[kas23]

Well, I am one of many BlackBerry users who is waiting for the next iPhone before switching, my contract is up for renewal in July and I am hoping for two things: better battery life and better reception, I work in remote areas and my BB generally has a signal when iPhone users (same network) do not.

So basically you are still thinking about it. You actually may not get an iPhone because it doesn't sound optimal for your personal situation. Personally, I don't think the hardware changes are going to be that great. I don't think you're going to see anything that is going to blow you away and make yourself say "I must buy the new iPhone." I wonder if there are any people, at this point, who have never owned an iPhone and are without a doubt going to buy the new iPhone when it comes out.

 

[Theaser]

With the introduction of that 12.2 megapixel phone by LG, I think Apple has to step it up. The norm is now 8 megapixels for smartphones, N97, N86, and so on. Hardware might be major this year for the iPhone.

For firmware, of course we will get the updates just like how iPhone users have the 2.0 update when it came out. So no problems there.

 

[kas23]

ATT will not subsidize the new iphone for current iphone 3G owners. ATT recoups the subsidized amount over the 2 yr contract. if u don't fulfill the 2 yr contract, they will be losing money, and obviously they're not gonna do it.

Personally, I don't get my so many people think that AT&T (or other carriers) are going to let them off of the subsidy-hook so easy. They don't subsidize phones out of the goodness of their heart....The subsidy is to lure NEW customers, not retain old.

Agreed and agreed. I makes zero sense for AT&T to offer subsidized pricing to existing 3G customers. No matter what, AT&T already has us signed up for a 2 year contract. They could care less if we had a new phone or not. Our money is basically like money already in the bank for them.

However, Apple is not in the cellphone service business. They sell hardware. Apple is going to be the one who loses out when people are stuck in a 2 year-contract and absolutely can't give Apple another $400-$500 for an unsubsidized iPhone. Apple would love it if we could buy a new iPhone from them on an annual basis though.

Apple sold over 10 million phones in 2008. There is absolutely no way they are going to match that number in this coming year. All the people who really wanted the iPhone ran out an bought one and are now stuck in 2 year contracts with no easy way out. If Apple really wanted to move units (like in the 10 million range), they themselves should lower the unsubsidized price of the iPhone down to the $200-$300 range. In reality, how much more money does it really cost to produce an iPod Touch vs an iPhone? If people can afford the Touch, then they should be able to easily afford an unsubsidized iPhone. The ball is in Apple's court with this one.

 

[kas23]

With the introduction of that 12.2 megapixel phone by LG, I think Apple has to step it up. The norm is now 8 megapixels for smartphones, N97, N86, and so on. Hardware might be major this year for the iPhone.

For firmware, of course we will get the updates just like how iPhone users have the 2.0 update when it came out. So no problems there.

Of course we only have one year for comparison, but there is no past evidence that the iPhone's hardware is really going to get a boost. The hardware jump from the original iPhone to the 3G really wasn't much. Basically we saw a GPS chip placed in it, a 3G chip placed in, and a supposedly better battery.

Apple never reacts to its competitors, so I really don't see them panicking and throwing all this new stuff in it. The processor is technology from 2006 (that needs to be replaced with something new), more RAM (which is likely the cause of Safari crashing a lot), and then maybe more storage. That's it.

I wouldn't really be surprised if we didn't see a camera update. Apple is quarky like that. If they don't believe we should be using our cellphones as a primary camera (regardless of the customer's preference), then they won't bother to upgrade it. And all the Apple apologists on here will try to tell us how we should be using a stand-alone camera instead and we really don't need a better camera. And Steve Jobs has vision which we don't understand, blah, blah, blah. However, I can't see them rationalizing a weaker processor, less RAM, or less storage.

 

[Theaser]

Of course we only have one year for comparison, but there is no past evidence that the iPhone's hardware is really going to get a boost. The hardware jump from the original iPhone to the 3G really wasn't much. Basically we saw a GPS chip placed in it, a 3G chip placed in, and a supposedly better battery.

Apple never reacts to its competitors, so I really don't see them panicking and throwing all this new stuff in it. The processor is technology from 2006 (that needs to be replaced with something new), more RAM (which is likely the cause of Safari crashing a lot), and then maybe more storage. That's it.

I wouldn't really be surprised if we didn't see a camera update. Apple is quarky like that. If they don't believe we should be using our cellphones as a primary camera (regardless of the customer's preference), then they won't bother to upgrade it. And all the Apple apologists on here will try to tell us how we should be using a stand-alone camera instead and we really don't need a better camera. And Steve Jobs has vision which we don't understand, blah, blah, blah. However, I can't see them rationalizing a weaker processor, less RAM, or less storage.

Yeah, they could have put a video camera in, but they didn't. So people jailbreaked and got all they wanted. Why couldn't Apple understand that, if you don't put those features which you could have done to the iPhone, you shouldn't do more to restrict people from obtaining those features. Oh wait, I know the answer, it's because its Apple. They might as well not put a camera in there at all.

*Special note to kas23: I know its a habit of yours, but please try not to double post, thanks.

 

[iTzChasE]

Some people will undoubtedly upgrade from the 3G, but this will likely be the exception, rather than the norm. There is also a small group of people who never upgraded to the 3G from the original iPhone. These people will likely upgrade.

Like me.

If there is a Major update, which I doubt, I will definitely get one.

I will most likely be one of the people who will camp out at an AT&T store 5 days before the release in order to get one. Heck, I could pay a bum to sit outside the store. Or I could just give him some beer, and cigarettes.

 

[jason72780]

Like me.

If there is a Major update, which I doubt, I will definitely get one.

I will most likely be one of the people who will camp out at an AT&T store 5 days before the release in order to get one. Heck, I could pay a bum to sit outside the store. Or I could just give him some beer, and cigarettes.

Beer and cigarettes? I'm in. I need to take some vacation days anyway.

 

[eplchamps0304]

Like me.

If there is a Major update, which I doubt, I will definitely get one.

I will most likely be one of the people who will camp out at an AT&T store 5 days before the release in order to get one. Heck, I could pay a bum to sit outside the store. Or I could just give him some beer, and cigarettes.

Im guessing-better camera (5mp+) and open up the SDK, thats all it really needs.

 

[=MuLti-CeLL=]

I think Apple and AT&T will allow the subsidized price for current iPhone 3G owners just as they did when going from the original iPhone to the 3G. With the large number of 3G phones already sold and the number of loyal Apple owners, it would be dumb for Apple and AT&T to block such a large number of people from getting the new phone at a reasonable price. I guess we will have to see though.



If a 3G owner purchased in July of 08, the contract for them would be up in 2010. At that point the customer could leave for Verizon, T-Mobile or some other carrier. If they allow that 3G owner to get a subsidized iPhone again with a new 2 year contract, they now have that customer through 2011. This is a trend that can continue yearly with new iPhone releases. The whole point is that this KEEPS customers with AT&T and PREVENTS them from going to another carrier. With all the new customers AT&T has been getting with the iPhone it makes perfect sense to continue locking these customers up for years and years. Just by continuing to lock these customers up AT&T makes money.

For right now, I'm going to agree with you until it doesn't happen but like you pretty much said, All the newer 3G owners and the millions all over the world that have bought the 3G, I just can't see Apple and AT&T saying well, here's a new one and pretty much everyone with a 3G is screwed unless you pay an unsubsidized price which is going to cost you a fortune. And all of you 2G owners (prolly what, 20%) and newer iPhone customers (that have been under a rock for the past 2 and a half years) will be able to buy the new and improved version.

I mean realistically how many more would they sell with a new version out? Don't you all think that 3G owners faaar outwiegh the V.1 owners now? Really how many of those 3G owners were holders of V.1's that decided to go ahead and upgrade to the 3G compared to those more tech savvy that decided the best thing to do was wait it out with their V.1 with hopes a new one comes out a year later? How many more "new" iPhone customers that havn't got a 3G yet 'in the know' of a new version possibly just over the horizon at WWDC?

I dunno, I'm tired now and just babbling on and on...

 

[LoganT]

It usually doesn't take 2 years in order to be able to get the upgrade price. Check online. It's usually a little over a year or maybe even less than a year.

 

[mrmarts]

I think when apple launches its iphone refresh model in summer it would attract many 2g owners who are coming off their contracts.

As a 3g owner i will only be a year into contract this summer so i can wait for the next model.

With adobe flash mobile not being launched untill early next year

http://www.theiphoneblog.com/2009/02/16/adobe-announces-full-flash-player-mobile-iphone-eta-tba/

maybe apple may introduce a flash based menu with interactive icons if not safari will finally have the long awaited flash support everyones been waiting for.

than theres the multi core processors

http://www.theiphoneblog.com/2009/02/17/multicore-mobile-processors-iphone-bound/

if this summers misses out on this there is a high chance the next gen will get it.

another article from the iphone blog

http://www.theiphoneblog.com/2009/02/13/apple-iphone-bullish-iphone-nano-hard-keyboards-bull/

states apple is focusing on its software aspects with the appstore sucess it

“seeing a chance to gain share, with its software as the principal differentiator"

no one knows what we will see this summer whether it is a minor storage bump or a larger screen and radical facelift i can live to wait for the next model.

 

[kas23]

I mean realistically how many more would they sell with a new version out? Don't you all think that 3G owners faaar outwiegh the V.1 owners now? Really how many of those 3G owners were holders of V.1's that decided to go ahead and upgrade to the 3G compared to those more tech savvy that decided the best thing to do was wait it out with their V.1 with hopes a new one comes out a year later? How many more "new" iPhone customers that havn't got a 3G yet 'in the know' of a new version possibly just over the horizon at WWDC?

I dunno, I'm tired now and just babbling on and on...

I agree with this. I don't think there are many people out there (certainly not 10 million) that are going to see the new iPhone version and say "oh what's that phone, I think I want one!" The only way I see Apple selling similar number is if Apple reduces the price for unsubsidized phones. With this plan, they probably could sell 10 million phones per year - to the same iPhone owners. They would probably make more money with this business model than only selling an expensive unsubsidized phone. AT&T may block them from doing this though (it may be in the exclusivity contract) because it would remove any need to sign a 2 year contract with them (just keep buying a cheap phone each year and pay month-by-month).

 

[kas23]

I think when apple launches its iphone refresh model in summer it would attract many 2g owners who are coming off their contracts.

I would love to see the actual numbers for this group. The 3G greatly out-sold the original iPhone and many people upgraded from the original iPhone to the 3G (would 75% of previous original iPhone owners be fair?). I don't think that leaves a very big population.

As a 3g owner i will only be a year into contract this summer so i can wait for the next model.

You and about 10 million others. Having 10 million people waiting around until the "next round" isn't exactly what Apple probably has in mind. This could potentially represent about 10 million customers who are, in effect, blocked out from throwing their money at Apple. As a rough estimate, at $400 each, that's about $4 billion in revenue they likely won't be seeing due to carrier contract restrictions.

 

[Mac In School]

For right now, I'm going to agree with you until it doesn't happen but like you pretty much said, All the newer 3G owners and the millions all over the world that have bought the 3G, I just can't see Apple and AT&T saying well, here's a new one and pretty much everyone with a 3G is screwed unless you pay an unsubsidized price which is going to cost you a fortune.

This is the reaction that worries me.

Why wouldn't it be this way? That's how every mobile phone subsidy deal works. Until we actually see something different, I think we have to assume this is how it will be.