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Bickity

macrumors member
May 25, 2007
70
0
Another Crazy Prediction

tv stops being a hobby and start domination of movie industry.

Mac Mini goes away, tv has full line of products and starts rental movie service. That would make me buy one.
 

AtHomeBoy_2000

macrumors 6502a
Feb 3, 2005
879
0
.Mac is very poor value for money.

oh crap! I think that might be it! Jobs said at All Things Digital that there was some things for .Mac in the works. So exciting things. That very well may be it! Remember that data center they bought a while back... hmmm......
 

BostonMJH

macrumors newbie
Jul 24, 2002
12
0
It's quit simple.

Apple has always had a category for iLife revenue..
This money stream is going to dry up because iLife will be integrated into Leopard.The price point for Leopard will remain at $129 however iLife will no longer be considered as separate revenue thus causing revenues to be lower.

That along with potential component costs for new backlit LED iMacs will bring the total profits down.

Apple will not integrate iLife into Leopard. iLife is a money maker but it cost to develope these updates and if it is integrared into Leopard it Apple will not recoup the cost of the developement. You add the cost of development of Leopard and apple margin would be greatly reduced.
 

jholzner

macrumors 65816
Jul 24, 2002
1,385
21
Champaign, IL
I don't think this has much to do with Leopard. A lot of Mac buyers won't even be aware of the pend OS revision, others who do will choose to wait for a couple updates before adoption and early adopters will be happy to pay the $129. I'm not saying the release of Leopard in October won't have *any* effect on Mac sales, but I don't think it will be material to the bottom line.

Also, OS X releases (10.x.0) have always included the current iLife suite.

No, they haven't. That is just not true. 10.4 didn't. No, iLife was NOT included with 10.4.
 

ryano144

macrumors newbie
Jun 5, 2007
11
0
Pittsburgh, PA
oh crap! I think that might be it! Jobs said at All Things Digital that there was some things for .Mac in the works. So exciting things. That very well may be it! Remember that data center they bought a while back... hmmm......

I just read through most of the posts here and yours makes the most sense (provided that apple did buy a data center [link anyone?]). I would expect a media event in early August with new iMacs and the unveiling of the new .mac and iLife. Then the iPod would be announced in October or so (after the student promo ends... they always seem to do that).

With their new focus on Web 2.0, it would only make sense that Apple would offer their own really advanced webapp. Their website has recently been redone in some pretty nice AJAX.
 

pjarvi

macrumors 65816
Jan 11, 2006
1,289
190
Clovis, CA
They'll cancel the AppleTV and add a mini-DVI port to the Mini that will support an HDMI connection. I'm sure it's eating them up inside to have a product out that's affordable. Need to fix that right away and replace it with a more expensive option. ;)
 

GregA

macrumors 65816
Mar 14, 2003
1,249
15
Sydney Australia
they don't announce new iMacs 6 weeks before release, they announce and release at the same time.

Yeah, it'd be more like the iMac is announced with some amazing new hardware feature which is REALLY popular, and since people realise this new feature will be in MBPs in a few months they stop buying MBPs.

My mind is working at about 10% (gettting married on Sunday, stressed, and our minister just had a heart attack!)... so I'm not thinking well outside the box.

I still think it's touch screen.
If you like... click through your files using cover flow, access files via stacks... but I think this will be more useful in iLife. iPhoto zoom into shots (just pinch), change their order, rotate/straighten with fingers. iTunes coverflow access almost identical to iPhone. Screen saver like the AppleTV, except you can grab a photo, and pull it around, zoom in/out.

Like I said, I don't think that's enough... so anyone able to think way outside the square on this for hardware that when released on iMac would make people hold off buying a MBP?

MT, properly implemented, can change the way we (people) interface with a whole range of devices (computers, AV gear, appliances, vending machines, kiosks)... yea, the world.
<snip>
They could "transition" to MT in several ways:
1) add MT capability to all displays as each product is refreshed: iMacs and New Apple Displays (would be the first candidates)

This would be MT Display input in addition to (not as a replacement for) keyboards, touchpads, graphic input tablets.

2) Rework the iLife, iWork apps and other OS X Apps (Safari, iTunes, Pro apps) to take advantage of (and create a need for) MT.

3) Introduce new devices that use MT:
--an ultraportable (palmtop) computer
--a universal remote control.
--a Home Security Appliance Monitor & control
--a light table
--input reader/scanner for images, documents (text recognition), handwriting, fingerprints, barcodes, etc.

Okay... I AM a little slow today. Just saw this comment...
Yep.
 

GregA

macrumors 65816
Mar 14, 2003
1,249
15
Sydney Australia
2 other interesting responses I saw...
1) Apple dropping PC hardware altogether
2) Apple counting sales revenue for a new PC over 2 years (like they do for the iPhone)

I doubt #1 will happen - there's less reason than ever for that.

#2 is quite possible.

I wonder if they would even consider a subscription model for computers, in general. Pay a monthly fee for your computer, with .Mac built in & AppleCare, subscribed OS & iLife upgrades, and a guaranteed minimum monthly purchase/rental from iTunes
 

CBAviator

macrumors 6502
Jun 10, 2007
299
0
Nederland
That might be the transition loss, since there are fence-sitters that are waiting...

I'm not sure there are so many "fence-sitters" that Apple expects it to decrease their numbers for the current quarter. I would assume it has to do with the turnover of new technology (such as an iMac redesign). Just as turnover is expensive as it relates to employees, it can also be expensive with new technology. Chances are, as soon as Apple releases a new iMac (for example) they won't have a zero stock of "old" iMac parts. There is certainly a cost when switching to new technology (production, education/training of employees, higher technology costs if the sales prices remain the same, discounted "old" iMacs, etc.). This is why I believe they mentioned a possibility of lower numbers with the transition.
 

Eric5h5

macrumors 68020
Dec 9, 2004
2,489
591
Also, OS X releases (10.x.0) have always never included the current iLife suite.

Fixed that for you. ;) The only time you ever get iLife for "free" is when you buy a Mac. Other than that, you pay for upgrades, period. It never comes with boxed OS upgrades.

--Eric
 

ClimbingTheLog

macrumors 6502a
May 21, 2003
633
0
They aren't cutting the MacPro, it is essential for high margin sales to Creatives.

The just said they were going to have revenue issues, no?

If they kill the Mac Pro they are killing Final Cut/CS3 etc. etc. which is simply NOT going to happen.

I don't think they are, but if they had a new xMac with all the power of a Mac Pro, then what's the point? I have a new PC server on order that's got a motherboard smaller than the motherboard in a MacBook. Yeah, it's only a single dual-core machine, but a MacPro mobo doesn't have to be hugely bigger to go octocore, especially if they go 3D.

That might be the transition loss, since there are fence-sitters that are waiting...

Nah, throw a coupon in the box and reflect revenue *this* quarter. No-brainer.

Isn't MW a consumer convention? For Pro news/products try Photokina or NAB or NAMM...

Oh, not again. MacWorld is for all Mac users. NAB, Photokina, et. al. are for very specific niche media markets. WWDC isn't just for pro-users either - it's for the people who write apps that run on MacBooks and iMacs. (I was just doing the WWDC thing pre-emptively.)

My prediction is an all-flash iPod lineup....so while Apple's paying lower flash costs than most, the replacement of hard drives with flash is going to be expensive cost-wise and would definitely qualify as a "transition" in product lines.

Nice idea, but boy that much flash? 4GB of flash still runs $20 on the open market; $320 worth in an iPod. Even if they had a 50% discount, that's still hefty - there goes all their iPod margin. But, boy, sexy.

Unless the new iMacs are going flash as well. Or they're going to incorporate the Robson turbo memory into the new Santa Rosa iMacs.

Damn, I'd have to buy one of those too. Now, this I can see. I was really surprised to see it missed by the MBP refresh and the timing would be right to explain the long iMac refresh delay.

The theory that the transition is all about Flash is the best one I've seen here.

Apple is going to get out of the hardware business and make OSX for PC's.

It's much too soon for that. That has to wait until the PC world has gone 64-bit/non-legacy.

As has been mentioned in the iMac threads - the iMac name will die and the product will get the 'Mac' title, next to Mac pro, Mac Book Pro and Mac Book.

It's a shame, but Steve sure likes his symmetrical grids, doesn't he. Prepare for market confusion.

Mac Mini goes away, tv has full line of products and starts rental movie service. That would make me buy one.

Yeah, a C2D :apple:TV which could run MacOSX apps would be welcome.

The only time you ever get iLife for "free" is when you buy a Mac. Other than that, you pay for upgrades, period. It never comes with boxed OS upgrades.

Let's put an end to this debate: http://docs.info.apple.com/article.html?artnum=301229
 

Joshua53077

macrumors newbie
Jul 16, 2002
6
0
Long Island, NY
Um

Yep, he obviously has forgotten about:

-iPhone
-iTV
-Quad Mac Pro
-Every OSX release
-XServe


And a whole load of other products that Apple announced in advance of shipping. I'm sure someone can come up with a more complete list.

I'm not sure how saying that I'm forgetting about products that were announced and then shipped at a later date undermines my statement that Apple rarely ships hardware releases immediately. You prove my point.
 

headfake

macrumors newbie
May 24, 2007
14
0
i mentioned this earlier -- "major product transition" means a big shakeup in the PC/notebook lines (there's not really much to change in the ipod). since it's clear that leopard and therefore any big changes in the hardware offerings are probably going to miss the back-to-school surge next month, they're probably going to use that opportunity to deep-discount the current lines and push out the old inventory before bringing in the new models.
 

barcodebawtv

macrumors newbie
Apr 20, 2006
25
0
What do you mean by "ports"? A coaxial connection? Absolutely not going to happen. Apple has a plan for TV -- and it does not involve a cable connection.

Apple has too much to gain from $1.99 downloads of TV shows -- and a possible subscription plan this fall -- to turn iMacs into DVRs.

If Apple made everything in the TV Shows section available for $29.99 a month and added live sports, award shows, etc., I would seriously consider getting an :apple:tv and dumping Comcast.

With or without a subscription plan, I think :apple:tv will gain the capability for direct purchase of TV and movie content before the end of this year.
I completely agree with this. But the downfall of this is HD content. That's where comcast has a leg up on everyone! With comcast you can get HD content On Demand. :apple:TV has the power to display HD, but I'm not about to spend all day downloading an HD movie/ show. It's asking for a miracle, but I'd love to be able to do it. Until then I have no use for :apple:TV yet... unless they do merge it with the Mac Mini and maybe add Blu-Ray??
 

headfake

macrumors newbie
May 24, 2007
14
0
It's the Osbourne effect folks

Apple rarely unveils a hardware product that ships immediately. Therefore, if they unveil a new iMac, it will inevitably mean that
a) Inventory of existing iMacs will be allowed to dwindle down and
b) People will await the new model

My opinion? Apple is going to announce the ultra portable laptop that we've all been talking about. Why? Because for apple to expect it to impact their balance sheet, it would have to be something more substantial than a product revision. If, for example, an ultra portable is announced, it would most likely affect near term sales of both 15 inch Macbook Pros as well as Macbooks. Considering how laptops are driving sales of new macs right now, a reduction there will have a more dramatic affect than virtually any other part of the mac product line.

ding. we have a winner. the ultraportable potentially cannibalizes the MacBook line, so there needs to be a major rearrangement. the prevalence of MacBooks amongst college students means that back-to-school deals presents a golden opportunity. throw in the usual ipod and now iphone bundles for some lock-in, and you've got a sweet combo.
 

Goldenbear

macrumors regular
Jun 30, 2007
226
3
Los Angeles
...Steve Jobs was like we have a Premium Version for $129. A Business Version for $129. The Ultimate Version for $129. Their whole thing is, they dont want to be like Vista and have 18 different versions so that wont be happening either

Apple should actually ship 3 versions of Leopard (for the same price, of course)! Or have the box marked "Premium, Business, and Ultimate versions all included". A great way to have a bit of fun at MS's expense :D

As for this "transition", I think it's very simple. Completely new enclosure/form factor for the iMac. New chipsets and enclosures mean more startup costs for the models, thus lower margins. We could potentially also see new form factors for the Mac Mini and/or Mac Pro.

Or how about this. Leopard ships early, and SJ says something like "Since we're shipping an entirely new and revolutionary operating system, we felt it was only appropriate to have an entirely new lineup of computers to go along with it." New iMac, Mac Pro, Mac Mini, etc. OK, maybe not :p:p:p
 

mathwhiz90601

macrumors 6502
Jul 5, 2007
367
0
SoCal... wannabe Canadian
The problem with a touch screen (aside from the finger prints) is the ache in your arm if you spend any significant time using it.

Something I've not seen mentioned that could lend a multi-touch feature without the expense is a mouse with a touch sensative surface. No buttons, just a touch surface. Curved and integrated into the mouse surface.

You could duplicate much of the multi-touch features this way.

Hmm... perhaps the product transition is the mouse? Apple makes more than computers, iPods, iPhones, and AppleTV's, you know....

I say product transition is iMac + mini + MT Mouse.
 

Wild-Bill

macrumors 68030
Jan 10, 2007
2,539
617
bleep
Or how about this. Leopard ships early, and SJ says something like "Since we're shipping an entirely new and revolutionary operating system, we felt it was only appropriate to have an entirely new lineup of computers to go along with it." New iMac, Mac Pro, Mac Mini, etc. OK, maybe not :p:p:p

Uhhh..... No. That would mean the Mac Pro would go 14 months without an update. Unacceptable. :apple:
 

Evangelion

macrumors 68040
Jan 10, 2005
3,375
147
I would guess they're referring to the Leopard transition, scheduled to happen in October, which may cause people to put off buying a computer this quarter. That is how a product transition decreases earnings in the short term, though it will likely increase earnings in the following quarter.

I think you are wrong. Didn't Oppenheimer say that it's a "product-transition he can't really talk about at this moment"? If the transition was simply due to people waiting for Leopard, he would have said it. But he didn't. He said that it was due to unannounced product-transition that he can't discuss in detail.
 

SPUY767

macrumors 68020
Jun 22, 2003
2,041
131
GA
The transition to new iMacs could easily be seen as a problem. If they introduce the new iMacs with a 6 week lead time, that would pretty much be 6 weeks of near zero sales. Its happened several times before.

You neglect to take into account the fact that since the Intel switch, all product introductions have been instantaneous. When the Quad XEON's weere announced, I bought one. It was on my doorstep in four days.
 

Chisholm

macrumors regular
May 31, 2002
242
12
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
You neglect to take into account the fact that since the Intel switch, all product introductions have been instantaneous. When the Quad XEON's weere announced, I bought one. It was on my doorstep in four days.

And I'm happy they provided you with such excellent service. But look at wider history, not a simple benchmark of your happiness. Apple does some increadable *****, but getting product to users has had many problems in the past. OSX.5? G5 PowerBooks? Hello?
 

MacinDoc

macrumors 68020
Mar 22, 2004
2,268
11
The Great White North
And I'm happy they provided you with such excellent service. But look at wider history, not a simple benchmark of your happiness. Apple does some increadable *****, but getting product to users has had many problems in the past. OSX.5? G5 PowerBooks? Hello?
However, any revision of a current product, with the exception of high-end modifications, cannot be pre-announced, because it will kill all sales of the current model for the pre-announcement period. If Apple said today that a "totally re-designed iMac with larger, brighter screen, more RAM, larger HD, quad core processor, and twice the graphics performance" would be released in 2 months, would you buy the current model? Would anyone?
 

Chisholm

macrumors regular
May 31, 2002
242
12
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
However, any revision of a current product, with the exception of high-end modifications, cannot be pre-announced, because it will kill all sales of the current model for the pre-announcement period. If Apple said today that a "totally re-designed iMac with larger, brighter screen, more RAM, larger HD, quad core processor, and twice the graphics performance" would be released in 2 months, would you buy the current model? Would anyone?

That is my point. You might just have to look back at my original post. I'm waiting for a new iMac myself.....
 
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