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Mini iPods, iLife Updates, No New CPUs at MacWorld Expo?
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I think I'll just sit back and let Apple surprise me on this MacWorld... I won't get my expectations up, because I know that whatever Steve pulls out of his sleeve will make us all drool, even if it isn't a quad-processor 2.6 Ghz 1U Xserve.
btw, my dad's DP 1.8 G5 just arrived a couple of hours ago
(but my mom won't let me open it until he gets home
btw, my dad's DP 1.8 G5 just arrived a couple of hours ago
(but my mom won't let me open it until he gets home Traditionally speaking, you are much more likely to have a stock spike before an announcement (of any company, Apple included), than after.
That having been said, it is generally silly to try and market-time a stock based on rumors you hear here. The "big" players both hear the same rumors and have contacts to gauge how true or false they are. You are at a distinct disadvantage in that kind of game.
Stocks go up or down on relative expectations, not on specific news. Apple could break $3B in profit next quarter and the stock price go down if the big stock holders were expecting $3.1B.
2GB of Flash memory would be around $700 (128MB MMC card is $40-50; you'd need 8 of those for 1GB, which is $320-400; 16 for 2GB would be $640-800; 16 MMC cards is still a bit of space, and a hefty power requirement; I don't think you'd want to go to a less-compact flash format than the minimal MMC).
That is just not gonna happen in a $99-149 product.
1) NO ONE had the 17"/12" laptops rumors (until Arn posted the night before).
2) ThinkSecret was right: the 15" Powerbooks (which, at the time, were the ONLY PowerBooks) were not upgraded at MWSF 2003. I don't recall the iBooks being upgraded either.
3) Shoot at TS's record if you want, but they have a better track record than most sites out there.
I agree. $100 is an upper limit for many gifts, and so Apple would sell lots of units during gift-giving times (including but not limitted to the November-December time period). And a "mini" iPod would certainly be a more welcome and appreciated gift than a box of chocolates and some flowers ...
You're missing the point.
I could really care less about TS's track record. My point was this:
Last year, they said "Laptops and Power Macs also will not get a makeover", and then the laptops did.
This year they are saying that there will be no updates to the desktop or laptop line, and so everyone seems to be pretending this is gospel, when clearly, a year ago, they were flat-out wrong.
Even a great rumor site can be wrong.
So my point is...it could certainly be conceivable (and IMO very likely) that they don't have the whole scoop just like last year.
CES show in Las Vegas Jan 8-9th
Apple has set up a very large booth there which is approx. the same size as MS.
SJ is either telling everyone no PM upgrades for the Expo to cause mis-direction or has planned to release it to the CES community where it has released some big and small surprises.
SJ does a Keynote on the 6th in CA.
SJ then does a Keynote on the 8th in NE.
"And just one more thing.." line will end up being a whole lot more of something.
I believe SJ wants to wow the crowd at CES which is mostly PC oriented.
MS is said to be releasing something big there as well so it would seem plausible for SJ to release something that would be a buzz kill for MS and knock billy boy of his high horse.
Apple has set up a very large booth there which is approx. the same size as MS.
SJ is either telling everyone no PM upgrades for the Expo to cause mis-direction or has planned to release it to the CES community where it has released some big and small surprises.
SJ does a Keynote on the 6th in CA.
SJ then does a Keynote on the 8th in NE.
"And just one more thing.." line will end up being a whole lot more of something.
I believe SJ wants to wow the crowd at CES which is mostly PC oriented.
MS is said to be releasing something big there as well so it would seem plausible for SJ to release something that would be a buzz kill for MS and knock billy boy of his high horse.
If SJ thinks like I do which I think is about 50% of the time.
He is playing a mis-information game with everyone. Only the high ups in the food chain know the real deal and even then they maybe limited by just few key words.
SJ is not stupid and probably has actually even looked at a couple of these sites so he knows leaks happen so why not start a mis-information campaign to throw everyone off on.
He is playing a mis-information game with everyone. Only the high ups in the food chain know the real deal and even then they maybe limited by just few key words.
SJ is not stupid and probably has actually even looked at a couple of these sites so he knows leaks happen so why not start a mis-information campaign to throw everyone off on.
Okay, yes, agreed.
It is quite likely that they don't have the "whole" scoop, and also incredibly likely that several of the "finer" points are either just flat out wrong or will be changed on Steve's whim between now and the Expo.
So, no, please put down the revolver and just wait and see what happens at MWSF.
On the other hand, given their relative track record (relative to the rest of the Mac rumors "press"), their information warrants a little more trust than most.
Between AppleInsider and ThinkSecret, I would tend to believe TS more. Moreover, until AI comes out with "confirmation" that G5s will be introduced, it is entirely possible that the AI suppositions are "stale" and that things have changed as TS is reflecting.
Not that I believe AI is completely wrong about their G5 roadmap rumors (although, for the most part, the rumors seem just a minor half-step away from what common sense would dictate), I just believe that G5 updates are more likely to occur outside of the MWSF arena. Apple events have tended towards more single-focus events (music, or consumer wares, or professional wares), which also tends to make the TS suppositions ring truer in my ears (assuming the "mini" iPod rumors are true).
I guess the year of Apples 20th Powermac anniversary might be like the "Year of the laptop". Just something that is said but not backed up by product until much much later in the year. I hope I am wrong. If they do announce something in January whatever it is is so secret that when they announce it they will also announce that it wont be ready for production until summer.
Re: CES show in Las Vegas Jan 8-9th
Damn. Steve's flying to Nebraska for a keynote? Cue rumors of a new corn-farming iApp ...
Damn. Steve's flying to Nebraska for a keynote? Cue rumors of a new corn-farming iApp ...
Re: ipodipodipod
I couldnt agree more. Apple better not market too much to teens, because teens are notoriouse for making things a fad. So once they are no longer the 'in' item, what will apple do then. I can see a random teen now "you have an ipod, that was soo last month."
I couldnt agree more. Apple better not market too much to teens, because teens are notoriouse for making things a fad. So once they are no longer the 'in' item, what will apple do then. I can see a random teen now "you have an ipod, that was soo last month."
Why sell cheaper iPods when they are sold out everywhere here in NYC and people are queuing 15-20 bodies deep to buy all the 40gigs they have left?
The iPod is the HOTTEST gift this Xmas. If they release a miniPod in Jan., then my brother will get an iPod as a gift.
ipod is cute but lets get real, the consumer line looks great but performs like crap. thats the bottom line .... i said it.....apple does not compete with apple and we all know it. why not build a imac that can be all it can be - G5 high end, top video card and monitor choice rather then the constant crippling by Apple so it dont compete with the other products they make such as powermac and powerbook. I guess they have forgotten which line saved their bean counter ran corporate butt.(before steve). Make imac all it can be and you wont be able to make enough.
I doubt any company can seriously roll out a whole new electronic device in November and expect it to take off in time for Christmas. The current iPod came out last March and it tops the list this season. And look at other must have products like the gameboy advance SP that came out last spring as well. Also the new form factor has to be centered around the storage component, and that single item alone probably dictates the entire manufacturing schedule. It's not like Apple is producing the new microdrives or whatever storage they are using in the iPod, they're waiting on suppliers like they always do.
This year is looking to be great for iPod owners though. 100 million free tracks and cheap iPods, best of all, the high end iPods will still retain most of their cachet value. I'm guessing the new iPods will be all plastic, none of that stainless steel or laser etched graphics for $100.
But compact flash (cf) is cheaper, and pricegrabber puts one gig cfs at ~150.00, and 512 at ~100.00.
Assuming apple is buying in serious bulk, it could be done.
-carly
exactly.
they mark up a cf card because a) they can, and b) they need to be built around protecting the chip, whereas an ipod would serve the purpose of protection as well as interface.
Ummmm ... the $150/GB CompactFlash at PriceGrabber is ...
AN IBM MICRODRIVE!
Which was exactly my point: hard-drive-based technology is significantly cheaper than flash!
1GB CF flash memory can be had for $260 according to PriceGrabber (considerably cheaper than SD/MMC, though).
Yes, Apple can get slightly cheaper in bulk, and eliminating the removable interface would help a little (although not a lot), but you're still looking at Flash memory being just a hair under twice as expensive as [edit: similarly-sized] hard-drive memory.
[edit: Note that for the price of 1GB of flash memory you can get a couple 6GB 2.5" notebook hard drives and have money to spare ... size definitely matters here, and I really don't expect all three of the following to be true:
1) iPod Jr will be $100
2) iPod Jr will be 2GB
3) iPod Jr will be smaller than the current iPod
]
CF isn't marked up on a whim. The margins are fairly thin (single-digit percentages).
The cost of protecting the chip is minor to say the least (pennies in plastic); the most expensive part of CF memory is the on-card controller chip. Yet, even that doesn't materially affect the end-user price of CF. The MAXIMUM cost of these components would be around $15. Why? Because brand-new 16MB CF cards are sold for that much, and they have the same protection and controller chips as the more expensive cards (http://www.pricegrabber.com/search_...search=16MB compact flash/ut=0c16190aa69e77e6)
The production costs of the "core" memory in those 1GB CF chips might be around $200, minimum, assuming the cheapest merchants plus manufacturer are selling it at a combined markup of 20% (which is a huge markup and not typical in the flash memory industry at all!). Doubling the size by moving to twin 512MB cards (while increasing the controller complexity) would decrease the minimum production costs slightly, but not substantially enough to compete with hard-drive based storage at a similar size and density.
Similar production costs will get you a 2GB 1" drive and leave money on the table.
To be absolutely clear: No one in this world can profitably sell a 2GB device of any sort based on Flash memory technology.
It is simply not possible this year.