According to your math, your iPhone would end up costing $680 ($200 cost + 24 months @ $20) since most subsidized phones require a 2 year contract.
There is still room in the Apple ecosystem for the Touch. Affordable purchase price => open iTunes account => purchase apps and content. The shuffle still has its fans (cheap, small, sturdy, easily replaced if lost/broken). The Nano, with its pseudo iOS interface and very few apps is a too much of an in-between. If an iPod model gets dropped, that would be the one.
My guess is that any updates will be minimal spec improvements and/or price drop on the entire line.
You can get them for $200 on contract and add a line for $20 to a family plan or get any number of android phones for that or less. There is no need to get a kid an iPod and another phone, just get him a smart phone.
See
MacSince1985's reply above. Pretty much... I DON'T WANT ANOTHER CONTRACT!!! I just want the iDevice to use to play games. I've already got a contract for my Samsung Galaxy s4, and quite happy with it for internet and data stuff. When that contract expires, I'll probably stick with the gs4 until it runs out of battery (nice thing here, I can just easily replace it), as the gs5 doesn't quite appeal to me, and not sure where things are going with the gs6.
Plus, many schools have iDevices that they let kids play with as part of their learning curriculum. I'm sure many schools would rather save the $300 to $500 per device and give them more easily replaced IpT than Iph. If they break the Iph, you're quite hosed because you got that on contract and now it was for nothing. Plus, they may not want kids going online. Especially those in the Kindergarten to 5th grade or so range.
I've seen news clips where schools have Ipads too. I'm fairly certain those are wifi only, and perhaps older generations too. No point in spending extra money for the cellular models, not to mention the data plans if they're not permitted to go online. If they are allowed to go online, then a wifi network set up would be cheaper.
Lastly, I don't have kids, but I hear parents aren't too keen on giving their children Iphones or any cell phones right off the bat. Perhaps once they enter jr. high or high school. But until then, the IpT is the much better way to go. Even if you armor that stuff, they can still misplace and lose it. It's a MUCH BIGGER hassle replacing something you bought for a lot of overall $$,
on contract, then something that's not tied to a contract.
I think Apple will silently discontinue the iPod Touch this year.
As sad as it may be to ponder the discontinuation of one of Apple's flagship lines, the truth is that the iPhone and iPad lines have basically cannibalized the iPod Touch market.
Was it ever mentioned explicitly or implied by Apple that the IpT was considered a "flagship" line? It seems like many of our perceptions are being injected by the user community.
Given how many iPhones have been sold over the last year, plus the fact that that the 16GB and 64GB iPhones cost the same (on contract) as an iPod Touch, why would anybody need an iPod Touch?
I get to "quick link" the response to this, so with that said, see the first part of this post