The current gen iPhone shortages have come way early and after hearing the new run around from online Apple Store reps I am starting to think the phone might come out earlier. I messed up my phone big time so I am holding on hope this is true. Anybody else think this might be possible?
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3G iPhone release before WWDC?
- Thread starter Xjett
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No. Why?
1) AT&T vacation restrictions same as last year which leads one to believe the new iPhone will be released at approximately the same time as the first iPhone.
2) WWDC is very close and for big product launches Apple likes to draw a big crowd and lots of media hype, so most likely the announcement will be at WWDC and not before.
3) It is doubtful the new hardware will be out before the 2.0 software is finalized.
1) AT&T vacation restrictions same as last year which leads one to believe the new iPhone will be released at approximately the same time as the first iPhone.
2) WWDC is very close and for big product launches Apple likes to draw a big crowd and lots of media hype, so most likely the announcement will be at WWDC and not before.
3) It is doubtful the new hardware will be out before the 2.0 software is finalized.
I highly doubt that the iPhone is coming out before 2.0 is released. It will not be released without an event. This isn't the normal spec-bump upgrade.
My forecast is still an announcement at WWDC with a release date later in the year. You must keep in mind that way too often rumor is taken as fact. Anyone could have sent a letter in to one of the usual suspect sites claiming to be an AT&T worker and that there have been company-wide vacation blackouts. Not saying that's what happened, per se, but as soon as modmyifone or MacRumors puts something on their front page, it spreads like wild fire and the line between fact and fiction becomes blurry. Its fun to speculate, but remember, its still speculation.
Apple has always counted on guarded secrecy coupled with rumor-filled anticipation that builds up to a climactic event that unveils one of their flagship products to the world. They have many many years of data that states this is their most effective marketing plan. Instead of building up to an event with official press releases, they let the rumor-mills due the work for them, for free, whipping us into a fervor that they couldn't possibly have done by themselves.
Here's the facts as I, the glass-half-empty-guy, sees them:
1. No word from the FCC. Surely Apple will need FCC approval before they unleash millions of new radios on the country. They maybe able to keep things somewhat secret, but not until the product is released. Like with the first gen, there will be a gap.
2. Depleted inventories do not equal new iPhone. All it means is demand outstripped present supply. Surely they have cut back in production, but they will sell 1st gen iPhones until the new ones come out. On the same day if it's a 6pm release again.
3. Jobs can not resist the "big event." He's done it since the beginning of Apple, through NeXT, and all the way through the present day. There will not be a new iPhone before the "big show."
4. The current firmware on the iPhone does not support many of the purported enhancements of the next iPhone. I don't see Apple coming out with 1.1.5 a little more than a month before 2.0. They could, 1.1.3>1.1.4 was quick, but I doubt it.
5. Oh, and PointNarf is a great name! Man I miss that show!
My forecast is still an announcement at WWDC with a release date later in the year. You must keep in mind that way too often rumor is taken as fact. Anyone could have sent a letter in to one of the usual suspect sites claiming to be an AT&T worker and that there have been company-wide vacation blackouts. Not saying that's what happened, per se, but as soon as modmyifone or MacRumors puts something on their front page, it spreads like wild fire and the line between fact and fiction becomes blurry. Its fun to speculate, but remember, its still speculation.
Apple has always counted on guarded secrecy coupled with rumor-filled anticipation that builds up to a climactic event that unveils one of their flagship products to the world. They have many many years of data that states this is their most effective marketing plan. Instead of building up to an event with official press releases, they let the rumor-mills due the work for them, for free, whipping us into a fervor that they couldn't possibly have done by themselves.
Here's the facts as I, the glass-half-empty-guy, sees them:
1. No word from the FCC. Surely Apple will need FCC approval before they unleash millions of new radios on the country. They maybe able to keep things somewhat secret, but not until the product is released. Like with the first gen, there will be a gap.
2. Depleted inventories do not equal new iPhone. All it means is demand outstripped present supply. Surely they have cut back in production, but they will sell 1st gen iPhones until the new ones come out. On the same day if it's a 6pm release again.
3. Jobs can not resist the "big event." He's done it since the beginning of Apple, through NeXT, and all the way through the present day. There will not be a new iPhone before the "big show."
4. The current firmware on the iPhone does not support many of the purported enhancements of the next iPhone. I don't see Apple coming out with 1.1.5 a little more than a month before 2.0. They could, 1.1.3>1.1.4 was quick, but I doubt it.
5. Oh, and PointNarf is a great name! Man I miss that show!
Im no expert, but has apple ever actually not let people buy their products during times when they cut back production? I would expect them to keep it online and just backorder it.
Release before WWDC, who knows? But to say, at this point, that the new iPhone won't be available at some point in June (as you imply by your AT&T comment) is just incredibly naive.
You're either trying to justify your late purchase, or, you are naive---not "negative"---naive. For your sake, I hope you're not the betting type.
Why is it naive? I'm not saying it's coming in December, I just don't think it's going to be as soon as every seems to WANT it to be. I don't need to justify anything, if I want the new one, I'll, well, buy it.
If not buying in to every rumor thrown my way means I'm naive, than, well...
Like it says in my sig, it's not what we don't know, it's what we think we know...
They've never taken something offline before a new product is launched. They've always put it on back order like you said. Which leads me to believe it's some other issue.
Let me play devil's advocate:
1) More than one new iphone version to be released? Perhaps an unlocked, v1.1.5 3G to be sold by Apple in the next few days, with a locked, subsidized 2.0 3G version at AT&T stores selling in June? Apple needs new phones on the street before AT&T does.
2) WWDC is about software more than hardware. Apple introduces the 3G iphone early, THEN makes a huge splash with 2.0 at WWDC. They further differentiate the iphone from other phones by emphasizing the major software upgrades available for a phone you already own - unlike a normal smartphone that becomes worthless and outdated within 12 months.
3) It would be an interesting strategy to release the iphone before the 2.0 software. No matter when the 3G iphone arrives, the media will be all over it - free PR for Apple. 2.0 and itunes 8.0 take center stage at WWDC, not in the shadow of a shiny new phone.
Idk man.. all I know is that the SDK and Apps Store is coming which means a whole lot of programs and a 3G iPhone is coming which means a whole lotta speed. GPS, video recording and voice features would be HIGHLY appreciated. Also an indicator light. If all of that happens, wow..
Yeah these are the main reasons why I was leaning towards a pre-WWDC release. It doesn't make sense that Apple would underestimate the demand for current gen iPhones. Apple wouldn't just sit around without stock for however many weeks until WWDC (or the ship date they announce at WWDC). Either way the media circus when they release the iPhone is going to be massive. If/When the 3G iPhone is released at WWDC, it will overshadow all software releases , and software is what WWDC is about.
I am not going to put my money on before, honestly for every reason it could happen before WWDC, there is an equally as good reason it will happen at the event
My gut tells me they are going to announce the 3G iPhone in special event in late May, but with availability in late June (and then begin accepting pre-orders for the new iPhone). This will cover them in case any FCC info leaks out...
That will allow them to focus on the 2.0 software at WWDC, and maybe an initial preview of Mac OS 10.6 'Maine Coon Cat.'
And then they'll ship the new 3G iPhone with the 2.0 software pre-installed in late June at the same time the 2.0 software update becomes available to existing iPhone owners.
That will allow them to focus on the 2.0 software at WWDC, and maybe an initial preview of Mac OS 10.6 'Maine Coon Cat.'
And then they'll ship the new 3G iPhone with the 2.0 software pre-installed in late June at the same time the 2.0 software update becomes available to existing iPhone owners.
not really. Piper Jaffrey (sp?) have already said it'll be compensated by faster initial sales of the new models. Plus - we know APple was tapering out production anyhow. That's happened, they just had more grey market sales than expected. See Earnings call w.r.t. Aggregate is low worldwide, and in U.S.