Anyone notice the Powerbooks are "don't buy" status?

[DreaminDirector]

I just went to the buyer's guide section and noticed the powerbooks have moved from "Buy only if you need it - Approaching the end of a cycle" to "Don't buy - updates soon". When did this change and is there any hard evidence (meaning slightly above "rumor" status) of this? I've been following this update for some time now and haven't heard anything. I thought there was harder evidence of the G5 Powermac getting updates soon, but they are still at "Buy only if" status.

I'm itching to get a 12" after I sold my 15" a few weeks back. The lack of info is driving me nuts (damn apple for being able to keep it all on the downlow ! )

maybe I'm just anxious.....

 

[Stolid]

I'd noticed the exact same thing but hadn't thought to make a post; I was hoping something was 'coming along' -- it was 3 days ago that I noticed IIRC. Time is kinda funky because I've been sick and sleeping strangely because of that.

 

[DreaminDirector]

yeah, the strange thing to me is that news has been sparse this past week and a half (sans apple stock going through the roof), yet the powerbooks quietly get a dont buy status. Nothing on the front page, nothing on page 2, just nothing. Anyone else know of anything?

Sorry to hear you're sick. I thought I was coming down with something a few days ago but I ended up sleeping it off.

 

[cjc343]

From what I understand, the buyers guide is based partially on rumors, but mostly on time. If you look at the various products, you will notice blue 'time bars' at the very end. What I heard was that the status was based off of elapsed time since last update.

 

[Stolid]

I'm sorta kicking myself; as part of my 'switch' I was going to transfer some of my (piddly little college students) Roth IRA from a mutual fund to apple stock but with it raising like this I'm not sure I want to risk hitting the peak >.<
As for the sickness - it hit at a good time. I was on spring break (and being the nerd I am, was already spending the time catching up on sleep and seeing if I could do some projects) so it was really the best time. Really just a fatigue bug, but those hit me hard sometimes (I'm ADHD/CFIDS-ish)

 

[Stolid]

From what I understand, the buyers guide is based partially on rumors, but mostly on time. If you look at the various products, you will notice blue 'time bars' at the very end. What I heard was that the status was based off of elapsed time since last update.

Time is supposed to change the general status but:
Quote:
ith the exception of "Don't Buy - Updates Soon", the remainder of recommendations are simply calculated based on the proximity of the most recent product release.
----
So -- we have PBs in the 'exception' case. We're wondering what put them there.

 

[aswitcher]

I think its a fair enough guess/guide for would be buyers. Its overdue and expected. Maybe they wil revise if other data comes ot hand.

 

[_pb_boi]

Time is supposed to change the general status but:
Quote:
ith the exception of "Don't Buy - Updates Soon", the remainder of recommendations are simply calculated based on the proximity of the most recent product release.
----
So -- we have PBs in the 'exception' case. We're wondering what put them there.

Well, if they update *really* soon, like less than a month inclusive of shipping, I can get the new version. Else, 'old' version for me!

peace.

 

[Stolid]

Overdue? Hold on...

1/2001 -> 10/2001 = 9 months
10/2001 -> 4/2002 = 6 months
4/2002 -> 11/2002 = 7 months
11/2002 -> 1/2003 = 2 months (what update was this again?)
1/2003 -> 9/2003 = 8 months
So it looks to me like 7/8 months is the update window
9/2003 + 7/8 months = 4/2004 or 5/2004. We could easily have another month or two of waiting by my estimate.

As for if updates SHOULD be faster than that? Yes (IMHO), but its the Apple world; you don't have to update that quickly because you don't have Dell vs Gateway vs Alienware vs Mom&Pop (or on a more individual part basis AMD vs Intel, ATI vs nVidia, etc)
Apple updates when they feel a product is 'done'. At the very least they take advantage of ATI/nVidia's competition

 

[aswitcher]

Overdue? Hold on...

1/2001 -> 10/2001 = 9 months
10/2001 -> 4/2002 = 6 months
4/2002 -> 11/2002 = 7 months
11/2002 -> 1/2003 = 2 months (what update was this again?)
1/2003 -> 9/2003 = 8 months
So it looks to me like 7/8 months is the update window
9/2003 + 7/8 months = 4/2003 or 5/2003. We could easily have another month or two of waiting by my estimate.

Ok, I'll take that as 200"4"

yep, I agree, could be a month or two more but


Product: PowerBook
Last Release: September 16, 2003
Days Since Update: 179 (Average = 163)
Recommendation: Don't Buy - Updates soon

So if they say 163 and we are at 179, then its overdue, so any time now,,,or now,,,or perhaps next month

As for if updates SHOULD be faster than that? Yes (IMHO), but its the Apple world; you don't have to update that quickly because you don't have Dell vs Gateway vs Alienware vs Mom&Pop (or on a more individual part basis AMD vs Intel, ATI vs nVidia, etc)
Apple updates when they feel a product is 'done'. At the very least they take advantage of ATI/nVidia's competition

Yep, I agree, Apple take their time, but I would like to think they have some market pressure to get stuff out ina reasonable time so our wait shouldn't be too much longer...

 

[Stolid]

Just remember when you do straight up averages like that you end up with those '2 month' updates being accounted for (more than likely, they might have accounted for that). Anyone who's ever gotten a 0 in a class and calculated what their new average is knows how a single number can really throw an average when you don't have an expansive sample space.

 

[alxths]

I'm sure Arn could shed some light on this?

 

[Steven1621]

in the recent past, ATI released the new mobility 128 MB 9600 (i think?). this should certainly be included in the next update. moto put on the 1.5 G4. i also think hitachi has a 7200 RPM HD out that might be an included. i think end of april probably IMO.

the status on the buyer's guide can be somewhat misleaing. i think the LCD's have been appoaching the end of a cycle for a year now. it is all just a guess really. and i am sure that we would be made aware of any new information if it came about.

 

[DreaminDirector]

true, I totally agree that it's an educated guess, but then what would be the push, aside from just average timing, to move the powerbook into "dont buy". Hell, maybe I'm just making this much bigger deal than it is...

 

[Ja Di ksw]

hate to say it

I hate to say this, b/c I'm one of the idiots waiting for a g5 pb before I buy one, but that "don't buy" doesn't really count. It switched when the time since last update became larger than the average time. However, the average time is off. There is an update after 2 months which just brought in the 12" and 17" forms. This wasn't a real update, the 15" didn't get updated, and it brings down the whole average time quite a bit. If you account for this, the average time is something like 220. Somewhere around there, I did it awhile ago. Since the time since the last update is only 179 as of this posting, we still have awhile to go

 

[job]

Overdue? Hold on...


11/2002 -> 1/2003 = 2 months (what update was this again?)

That was the update when Apple bumped the TiBooks to 1Ghz with Superdrive and introduced the original AlBooks (12" and 17") two months later at the Macworld Expo.

 

[aswitcher]

I hate to say this, b/c I'm one of the idiots waiting for a g5 pb before I buy one, but that "don't buy" doesn't really count. It switched when the time since last update became larger than the average time. However, the average time is off. There is an update after 2 months which just brought in the 12" and 17" forms. This wasn't a real update, the 15" didn't get updated, and it brings down the whole average time quite a bit. If you account for this, the average time is something like 220. Somewhere around there, I did it awhile ago. Since the time since the last update is only 179 as of this posting, we still have awhile to go

It also indicates to me that if we did see a slightly improved PBG4 in the next month or so then we might see the G5 a few months after that. Damn that could be annoying, seeing new G4's but half expecting the first G5s at anytime, and not necessarily 2005...

 

[a17inchFuture]

It also indicates to me that if we did see a slightly improved PBG4 in the next month or so then we might see the G5 a few months after that. Damn that could be annoying, seeing new G4's but half expecting the first G5s at anytime, and not necessarily 2005...

I agree, that would suck. But aren't we being a bit far-sighted. . . the new moto g4's won't ship for 2.5-5.5 months, and that is far too long a wait for a modestly updated powerbook g4.

The G5 is coming out at WWDC (with the 1.5 g4's for the " i " lines of apple comps in few months), in my opinion . . . but of course, that is a guess.

 

[aswitcher]

I agree, that would suck. But aren't we being a bit far-sighted. . . the new moto g4's won't ship for 2.5-5.5 months, and that is far too long a wait for a modestly updated powerbook g4.

The G5 is coming out at WWDC (with the 1.5 g4's for the " i " lines of apple comps in few months), in my opinion . . . but of course, that is a guess.

I thought the G4s were ready...?

As the WWDC, makes sense but end of June is soo far off. Damn.

 

[Stolid]

The chips are ready, in the sense of they have prototypes and are being fabbed, but Apple would be a little silly to announce a product before they had a stock of the chips, which takes a bit longer than the time since the new G4s have been announced.
Of course, Apple is known for announcing a product and not shipping it for a month or more; so who knows.
If they do announce them at the WWDC I'll be perturbed unless they're on sale then. I'm going to the WWDC and won't have an Apple of any type while I'm there unless new PBs are out before I go.

 

[Ja Di ksw]

Did Steve say that pb g5's were coming by the end of 2004? Or was that someone else, or was that a "we hope" or am I just off my gord? It could be I'm making stuff up b/c I'm hella tired right now, but I thought I remembered that happening. Ugh, sleep now.

 

[aswitcher]

Did Steve say that pb g5's were coming by the end of 2004? Or was that someone else, or was that a "we hope" or am I just off my gord? It could be I'm making stuff up b/c I'm hella tired right now, but I thought I remembered that happening. Ugh, sleep now.

Summer 2004...so he has to August to at least announce availability without loosing face I assume its going to be at June/July developers conference if not before

 

[johnnyjibbs]

There's no big deal about this. The Buyer's guide is based on the time between previous releases. It says "DON'T BUY" because the amount of time between now and the previous update on Sept 16th (6 months to a tee) is more than the average hiatus between previous releases. However, the previous average is skewed towards an underestimate due to things such as the 2 month gap between the release of the 1GHz TiBook and the new 12/17" PBs last year (similar to the new 20" iMac and dual 1.8 G5s). Only the special notes may indicate anything different according to actual rumour.

So, the Buyer's guide changing doesn't mean squat. There have been very few rumours (certainly few reliable ones) about new PBs on the front page of MacRumors so I wouldn't use the Buyer's guide as having any more weight than that. We can all just go back to hoping every Tuesday that something will be updated. (Well I'm not in the market for anything, but..) However, the PBs aren't really overdue but I'm not going to say much more or a "G4 PBs are underpowered compared to Wintel" debate will start up..

 

[cr2sh]

I think its a fair enough guess/guide for would be buyers. Its overdue and expected. Maybe they wil revise if other data comes ot hand.

Indeed. I'm guessing just like everyone else, but I think we're still 6months from an update.. if we do indeed get a g5 powerbook. Its possible that we'll get a 1.67 g4 soon and in the Fall get g5's... who knows.

I had a great experience with my 17" powerbook purchase so I always recommend people buy 'em if they need 'em.

 

[skinEman23]

I've used windows all my life and I'm looking at buying a mac as soon as new powerbooks come out. I'm not saying new ones are coming out soon, but I think it's ridiculous to sell a laptop for seven months without upgrades or a price drop. You certainly won't see that from competitive PC makers and I wouldn't expect it from Apple either. Since I decided to buy an apple laptop, their PC counterparts have been getting better and cheaper, while apple stagnates. I think they'll be losing quite a few potential customers if they continue to do nothing.