Lots of talk on MR and other sites about AAPL taking a big hit this week due to what are perceived to be weak sales of the 5c. We've talked about this being potentially misguided because no one knows yet if 5c demand truly is low, or if Apple just had a decent supply this year before launch.
But this doesn't even seem to me to be the point. I think the problem is in comparing 5c launch sales numbers to previous launches of new model iPhones. I realize that it is technically a new model, but only in terms of the case and appearance, not in terms of functionality (over the 5). It seems to me that we should be comparing the 5c sales numbers at launch to the numbers of the year-old model from previous years. So, how is the 5c faring against last year's sales of the $99 4S, when the 5 came out? Again, I know the 5c is technically "new" vs the 5...but most people who bought a 5 last year won't buy a 5c this year if they're wanting to upgrade to new tech. People who had a 4S might be more likely to go with 5c if they want to upgrade, but even many of those will be tempted to spend the extra $100 for the exciting new features of the 5S. So, comparing 5c numbers to last years 5 numbers, or the previous year's 4S numbers doesn't make sense. But it's what people are doing, and then that disappointment translates into false apprehensions about Apple's overall success projections, which in turn negatively impacts the stock.
At very least, this years launch sales figures should include both 5c and 5S models combined before anyone suggests or concludes that Apple is in some sort of trouble.
But this doesn't even seem to me to be the point. I think the problem is in comparing 5c launch sales numbers to previous launches of new model iPhones. I realize that it is technically a new model, but only in terms of the case and appearance, not in terms of functionality (over the 5). It seems to me that we should be comparing the 5c sales numbers at launch to the numbers of the year-old model from previous years. So, how is the 5c faring against last year's sales of the $99 4S, when the 5 came out? Again, I know the 5c is technically "new" vs the 5...but most people who bought a 5 last year won't buy a 5c this year if they're wanting to upgrade to new tech. People who had a 4S might be more likely to go with 5c if they want to upgrade, but even many of those will be tempted to spend the extra $100 for the exciting new features of the 5S. So, comparing 5c numbers to last years 5 numbers, or the previous year's 4S numbers doesn't make sense. But it's what people are doing, and then that disappointment translates into false apprehensions about Apple's overall success projections, which in turn negatively impacts the stock.
At very least, this years launch sales figures should include both 5c and 5S models combined before anyone suggests or concludes that Apple is in some sort of trouble.