Android Market Share Declines; Apple Rises

[NebulaClash]

Funny how every time there is an "Android gaining" article, it gets trumpted on the front page. But when this story came out yesterday, it gets ignored. Look, these month-to-month, breathlessly reported stories are a bit silly. Market share is gained or lost over the long term. There can be blips along the way that mean nothing. But that doesn't stop the Android followers from touting every one of these month-to-month or quarter-to-quarter blips when it's in their favor. Well, this was one that wasn't in their favor:

"The percent of smartphone buyers using Google's Android operating system has decreased for the first time.

Google’s Android stayed at No. 1 in the first quarter in the U.S. with about 49.5 percent of the Web capable phone market, IDC reported. That’s down from 52.4 percent in the previous three-month period.
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At the same time, Android’s global sales growth rate dropped to 3 percent in the March quarter from 7.5 percent in the fourth quarter and 9.5 percent in the September quarter. Apple’s U.S. market share jumped 12.3 percentage points to 29.5 percent of the U.S. market in the most recent quarter."

On June 3rd I made a post where I suggested:

There simply isn't a big consumer-led demand for Android. Again, the geeks demand it, but the average person barely knows what their phone runs.

This was simply a supply-side shift of the also-rans into a single segment of the pie. The shift is over. Thus the share level is starting to become static. No surprise. This is precisely what you would expect to see from a supply-side, rather than a demand-side, situation.

So look for a plateau stage next, and then the stage that follows is a decline in market share for Android as all those also-rans start to consolidate or drop out of the market because they cannot sufficiently differentiate from their me-too competition.

Is this the start of my predicted decline stage? Or is it merely a blip in the plateau stage? Or is it just a blip before sales accelerate again down the road? I don't know. But I find it curious that this story got ignored.

To be sure, I can only find this one news source, and the way the story is written is not very clear when comparing apples (*ahem*) and oranges. So it's quite possible this is a dodgy story and should be ignored. What I'm interested in is the long-term trend, and that's something we will see as the year goes on.

Actually, there was also this Electronista story that talked about the same data points. So it's not just the one story.

 

[NebulaClash]

LOL, 100 views and no comments. When the headline favors Android, people come crawling out to discuss it like crazy. When the headline favors Apple, ho hum.

Just remember these stories if it turns out that Android momentum really has stalled. These will have turned out to be the early reports that put the lie to the idea that "Android will destroy Apple in the phone market the way Microsoft did to Apple in the OS market."

 

[Applejuiced]

IMO android will stall even more if the rumors are true that the next iphone will be on all carriers.

 

[iceterminal]

IMO android will stall even more if the rumors are true that the next iphone will be on all carriers.

Well its these numbers that make zero sense to me.
The iPhones are of 1 manufacturer. But Android is on many different phone from many different manufacturer.
So you're looking at 2 devices versus X many Android devices. Of course Android will be on more devices and used more. Sheesh.

But as you say, if the iPhone comes out on more carriers the numbers will begin to be on a more even playing field.

 

[NebulaClash]

But that was one of my original surmises. Once all the me-too manufacturers run to Android from whatever they were running before, what is to differentiate one from another? It used to be they would tart their phones up with custom UIs on top of Android, but Google is clamping down on that. So what's the point for these guys? "Buy our phone, it's just like everyone else's!"

That's why I think we'll see a shakeout of manufacturers once they see they have no way to stand out. Some of them will look to other OSes as a way to look unique. That's what Microsoft wants, of course, and they'll be ready with sweet deals to cut.

 

[Tones2]

LOL, 100 views and no comments. When the headline favors Android, people come crawling out to discuss it like crazy. When the headline favors Apple, ho hum.

Just remember these stories if it turns out that Android momentum really has stalled. These will have turned out to be the early reports that put the lie to the idea that "Android will destroy Apple in the phone market the way Microsoft did to Apple in the OS market."

The fact that it MATTERS to you so much is what defines a fanboy. Why do you CARE so much?

Ho hum......

Tony

 

[NebulaClash]

The fact that it MATTERS to you so much is what defines a fanboy. Why do you CARE so much?

Ho hum......

Tony

This is a subject that makes front page news on MacRumors every quarter or so. Clearly it is of interest to some people, and I thought this particular data point was notable. If you do not, I find it curious that you took the time to comment on the subject.

 

[Tones2]

Boredom is the sure sign of the true believer confronted with facts that don't fit their ideology. Feign boredom and move on.

For the rest of us, this is a subject that makes front page news on MacRumors every quarter or so. Clearly it is of interest to some people, and I thought this particular data point was notable. If you do not, I find it curious that you took the time to comment on the subject. I guess you wish the subject would go away. At least until the next data point makes Android look good, huh?

My ideology is that I care about the DEVICE, not the company that makes the device. And in that respect, the more competition the better. Pulling for one side or the other is ridiculous. What I pull for is a good continuous fight between competitors that keeps everyone innovative.

Tony

 

[kdarling]

IDC also gave their four year prediction just a couple of weeks ago, putting Windows Phone ahead of iOS:

View attachment idc_prediction.bmp

But that was one of my original surmises. Once all the me-too manufacturers run to Android from whatever they were running before, what is to differentiate one from another? It used to be they would tart their phones up with custom UIs on top of Android, but Google is clamping down on that.

Google's not stopping customization, especially of the Launcher, which anyone including you and me can replace.

What they did was ask that anyone making additions that might affect Google's future ability to upgrade a device remotely, first clear them with Google. Which makes sense.

 

[Applejuiced]

Well its these numbers that make zero sense to me.
The iPhones are of 1 manufacturer. But Android is on many different phone from many different manufacturer.
So you're looking at 2 devices versus X many Android devices. Of course Android will be on more devices and used more. Sheesh.

But as you say, if the iPhone comes out on more carriers the numbers will begin to be on a more even playing field.

I agree.
Its a fight of one against 67 for example

 

[Biolizard]

Android will, for the foreseeable future, beat iOS in terms of devices on the market. Android devices are cheaper, and there are lots of devices from lots of manufacturers.

But unlike 5 years ago, that statistic isn't everything. Apple sells a premium product that carries on bringing in the money after they've sold you the hardware. It's a well known fact that Apple's App Store makes a lot more money than Google's Android Market (by the way, the capitalisation of 'Market' in the thread title causes ambiguity).

Result? I don't give a damn if more Android units are flying off the shelves than iPhones; they should be.

What I do, and most people should, care about is the quality of apps available, and here iOS is currently winning because iOS users are more likely to spend money on apps and because, although I don't have first hand experience, the development ecosystem is said to be better on iOS than Android. This encourages devs to release their apps on iOS and as long as these factors hold weight then we have little to worry about, no matter how many times Android phones in the wild outnumber the iPhone.

At the same time, I have loads of mates with Android phones who won't get iPhones because of cost (and a couple of guys because of ideology), and, being the generous bloke I am, would entirely like them to have access to as rich a library of applications as we have on the App Store; just not at our expense ;-) It's not a war unless you want to make it one....

 

[Hueyfreeman]

Did you read the article op. This thing compares androids growth rate to ios's change in the market share it does not say anything about android growing faster or slower then the market. Read the article for what it is an insult to journalism. Also I want to point out that if the iphone is released to all carriers that it will still trail android. Look at every other market like the UK where the iphone is sold across all carriers and android still has the highest market share.

 

[scaredpoet]

Ultimately, there is little point in this whole arms race to figure out who has the most market share. Just like looking at the specs of a phone on a paper, it's meaningless numbers.

The real meaningful figures are:

- Whether or not sales of a platform's devices continue to be profitable, and
- Whether or not developers are still making apps for the platform and THEY are making money.

As long as those two continue to be the case, then that means the userbase is there in significant numbers, and you aren't using a dead end platform.

We've learned from Windows, and from the old PalmOS: not being challenged, and being the overwhelmingly dominant player in a market eventually means you stop trying to be good at what you do. So, neither iOS nor Android users should ever hope that they ultimately "crush" the competition, unless they're ready to switch to something else in a couple years.

 

[NebulaClash]

I've made the point many times that it doesn't matter who beats who in this market. It's simply too vast for any one company to dominate.

Yet Android cheerleaders are constantly posting on MacRumors about how Android is going to dominate Apple, as if that matters. It's good to be reminded that not all data points to that.

Furthermore trends are not linear. Something new will come along that will distrupt the market and all those trend charts will be revised again.

 

[BlindMellon]

Android is the Chevy of OSes. iOS is the BMW. Way more Chevy's out there than BMWs, but which one would you rather have?

 

[Hueyfreeman]

Stop trying to compare smart phone OSs to car brands. It's not chevy's to bmw. If that was true then their would be no highend android Phones like this Htc sensation and it how would it be possible that the Samsung Galaxy S II is selling more then the iphone 4 in the uk

 

[Badbaw]

I would love to see the market share at year's end. Why?

(a) People holding off for the next iPhone before jumping to Verizon.
(b) People under contracts and holding off for the next iPhone on Verizon.
(c) People still with the 3GS and waiting for the next iPhone.
(d) The iPhone is multi-carrier and now offered unlocked (hello Sprint?).
(e) Verizon marketing the hell out of the new iPhone.

The iPhone's market share increase (via Verizon) hasn't really made headway yet.

 

[NebulaClash]

I would love to see the market share at year's end. Why?

(a) People holding off for the next iPhone before jumping to Verizon.
(b) People under contracts and holding off for the next iPhone on Verizon.
(c) People still with the 3GS and waiting for the next iPhone.
(d) The iPhone is multi-carrier and now offered unlocked (hello Sprint?).
(e) Verizon marketing the hell out of the new iPhone.

The iPhone's market share increase (via Verizon) hasn't really made headway yet.

I agree, I think the real trends will start to become apparent by the end of this year and early in 2012. I don't think the Android fans will be happy about the trends that appear. I also don't think the Apple fans will be happy about the trends that appear. It's a mistake for any one group to think they will truly dominate this vast market.

 

[Rodimus Prime]

I would love to see the market share at year's end. Why?

(a) People holding off for the next iPhone before jumping to Verizon.
(b) People under contracts and holding off for the next iPhone on Verizon.
(c) People still with the 3GS and waiting for the next iPhone.
(d) The iPhone is multi-carrier and now offered unlocked (hello Sprint?).
(e) Verizon marketing the hell out of the new iPhone.

The iPhone's market share increase (via Verizon) hasn't really made headway yet.

well group c really would not count as they already are iPhone users so not going to really change things.

Personally I find the quater iPhone are release rather worthless to tell me any infomation and this year with the iPhone being release 1Q later will make comparing year to year growth rather worthless. Reason being is because there is only 1 iPhone release per year you get a lot of pent up demand for them so a huge spike before it levels off.

Compare that to the other phone there tends to be some new phone coming out every few months or so. This in turn causes a much smoother demand curve and sell figures. Apple gets a huge spike really screwing up the numbers.

 

[Hueyfreeman]

Both fan clouds need to get their heads out of the clouds.

All of this is based on the foreseeable future.

1. Neither iOS or android will wipe the other out.

2. The iphone will always be the top selling handset.

3. Android will hold off with more hand sets sold

4. Even if the iphone is released to all 4 major US carriers it will still not beat total number of android handsets sold.

5. Both google and apple will continue to innovate.

6. Ten people will be outraged The this post despite how true it is.

 

[Maschil]

Both fan clouds need to get their heads out of the clouds.

All of this is based on the foreseeable future.

1. Neither iOS or android will wipe the other out.

2. The iphone will always be the top selling handset.

3. Android will hold off with more hand sets sold

4. Even if the iphone is released to all 4 major US carriers it will still not beat total number of android handsets sold.

5. Both google and apple will continue to innovate.

6. Ten people will be outraged The this post despite how true it is.

well said... neither Jobs nor google will see a budget increase or decrease by our ranting....lets see how we can better use the products we have... i've used Android and Apple, honestly it comes to preference, like macs and pcs...

 

[NebulaClash]

I agree, but my central point in this thread is that my expectation is that the number of Android handsets on the market will decrease over time as the market shakes out. In the last 18 months we've seen every also-ran in the market switch over to Android since it provides similar functionality to the popular iPhone but is free for the taking*. That stage is characterized by companies rushing into the market. When you have such a situation, it is usually followed by the consolidation stage with companies dropping out (or merging with others). The number of choices drops.

I don't think it is long-term stable to have hundreds of Android models around the world. I expect to see consolidation over the next year.

* "Free" doesn't count the stupid patent wars that forces HTC and others to pay cash for every Android phone they make. Free it is not.

 

[Savor]

Mac vs PC, anyone? Same debate.

Apple has always been Apple. Their philosophy has never changed. Even in the 1990's before Jobs came back, their closed-platform sold at premium prices mentality was still there. And this was when they were catering to a niche crowd. They didn't just start to change their way ten years ago. It has been going on for decades.

Google make BILLIONS and they never have to sell anything tangible. As long as you are connected to the internet, they make money. Heck, iPhone sales HELP Google profit too, ya know? Any smartphone sells alot helps them. It means you will use one of their services because it helps drive internet traffic. You do know Nokia still is the #1 cell phone manufacturer when it comes to volume sales around the world, right? Not always premium devices and they sell it in developing countries. Countries like India and Indonesia are huge in population.

All this doom and gloom predictions is a bunch of crock. Like Apple or Google are going to disappear just by a snap of a finger because your buddies switched from here to there and you came to this doom and gloom prediction about so and so.

At the end, the only real winners are the consumers. Everything else is just fanboy talk.

 

[NebulaClash]

Apple has changed one key approach they used to take: iPads cost the same as most other tablets. The cost advantage PCs used to have does not apply to the tablet market. As we saw with iPods, Apple now seeks to cover every available price point in a market, and they started their iPad line at a cheap price point (as we see with their competitors who seem unable to make theirs any cheaper).

It is true that the real winners are the consumers. But even here we see a key distinction between Apple and Google:

Apple makes money when the consumer buys its product. Consumers are their customers. The tech is the product being bought and sold.

Google makes money by giving functionality away but then marketing consumer information to advertisers. Advertisers are their customers. Consumers are the product being bought and sold.

I prefer the Apple approach where I pay my money up front and then Apple lets me enjoy my product in peace. With Google, they give me something up front, and then market me forever after to advertisers.