Any educated guesses on the price points for M4 and M4 Pro Mini?

[Fomalhaut]

What are your guesses for the pricing and specs for the expected M4 and M4 Pro Mini?

Based on the M4 in the iPad Pro, and the recent (unvalidated) product leaks from Russian YouTubers, I think we can expect:

1) Base M4 Mini: 10 core CPU (6e+4p), 10 core GPU, 16GB RAM, 512GB SSD

I'm going to go with US$799-899 starting price given that both RAM and SSD could increase, and these would otherwise cost $400 to upgrade (on the M2 Mini). It's possible the base SSD could stay at 256GB, even if RAM is increased to 16GB, in which case I would expect at base price of $699 (i.e. an increase of $100, but double the RAM)

2) Upgrade to 24GB RAM possible for the standard $200, but I don't expect a 32GB RAM upgrade option because it would overlap with the M4 Pro. Same $200 upgrade for 512GB to 1TB SSD.

3) M4 Pro: 11 core CPU (6e+5p) [same as M3 Pro], 16 core GPU [+2 on M3 Pro, same as M2 Pro], 24GB RAM, 512GB

I will guess $1399 start price, based on the extra 8GB RAM.

Upgrade of SoC to 12 core CPU (6e+6p) and 20 core GPU [+2 on M3 Pro, +1 on M2 Pro]: $300

Upgrade RAM from 24GB -> 36GB: $200
Upgrade SSD from 512-> 1TB: $200

It's possible that M4 Pro CPU cores could be increased to 12 (6e+6p) or 14 (8e+6p or 6e + 8p) but I suspect it will stay the same as M3 Pro.

So overall:
An M4 Mini with 16GB and 512GB (base SoC) could cost $899 ($100 less than the current M2 model with the same spec)
An M4 Pro Mini with 36GB and 1TB (base SoC) could cost $1799 ($100 less than the current M2 model, but with extra 4GB RAM)

 

[frogleader12]

the m4 pro chip might get extra cores compared to the 11/12 on the m3 pro

 

[Fomalhaut]

the m4 pro chip might get extra cores compared to the 11/12 on the m3 pro

That would be nice, but would depend on the expected changes between M3 and M4 on the Pro SoC. Maybe it'll be a binned 12-core and unbinned 14-core? In either case, we are expecting a reasonable increase in performance from the CPU (20-30% on M3), and possibly a modest increase in the GPU.

 

[frogleader12]

That would be nice, but would depend on the expected changes between M3 and M4 on the Pro SoC. Maybe it'll be a binned 12-core and unbinned 14-core? In either case, we are expecting a reasonable increase in performance from the CPU (20-30% on M3), and possibly a modest increase in the GPU.

I was predicting a 8P 6E format for the M4 Pro
I don't think the m4 will have increased prices considering that the the M2 got its price reduced by 100$ from 699 on the m1 mini to 599 to the m2 mini

 

[Apple Knowledge Navigator]

For all we know, Apple could keep the current Mini around as an entry-level option and then have new design with M4, M4 Pro as higher tiers. They've done this in the past with other products, such as the MacBook Pro (which I've no doubt they'll repeat with the design refresh and tandem-OLED).

 

[Fomalhaut]

I was predicting a 8P 6E format for the M4 Pro
I don't think the m4 will have increased prices considering that the the M2 got its price reduced by 100$ from 699 on the m1 mini to 599 to the m2 mini

If the M4 Pro has 8 performance cores, that would be awesome, but it may depend on the M4 Max core counts.

M3 Max is 10p+4e or 12p+4e, and the M3 Pro has 5p+6e or 6p+6e.

If the M4 Max core counts increase, to say 12 and 14 p-cores, then yes, I could see the M4 Pro increasing to 8p+6e. On the other hand, if M4 p-core counts stay the same (maybe a couple more e-cores?), then the M4 Pro may unfortunately stay at only 6 p-cores.

I have no idea what the M4 Pro and Max dies are going to look like though. Perhaps M4 die-shots could suggest something?

In any case, we can expect a healthy increase from M3 Pro to M4 Pro, and as I would be upgrading from an M1 Mini for my desktop machine, it will be a substantial improvement

 

[streetfunk]

1) Base M4 Mini: 10 core CPU (6e+4p), 10 core GPU, 16GB RAM, 512GB SSD

I'm going to go with US$799-899 starting price given that both RAM and SSD could increase, and these would otherwise cost $400 to upgrade (on the M2 Mini)

$799 at max, for: 16GB RAM, 512GB SSD.
Their measure is the competition, not older macs.
More would be too much, and throw people off in my opinion.
But who knows ? yeah, $899 sounds reasonable too vs. how we know apple.

Upgrade of SoC to 12 core CPU (6e+6p)

i doubt it that any mini pro will have more than 6 P-cores.

If the M4 Max core counts increase, to say 12 and 14 p-cores, then yes, I could see the M4 Pro increasing to 8p+6e. On the other hand, if M4 p-core counts stay the same (maybe a couple more e-cores?), then the M4 Pro may unfortunately stay at only 6 p-cores.

exactly my feel too.

i could even see them make a 8-P core model as a entry level studio.
studio base, haha

 

[Fomalhaut]

My gut feeling is that the core counts for M4 Pro could stay about the same as M3 Pro or possibly have some minor increments.

That said, I’m hoping that given the base M4 core count has increased to 4p+6e from 4p+4e on the M3, we might see an increase on the M4 Pro to either 6p+8e or 8p+6e on the unbinned version.

If we scale out the base M4 benchmarks that we have seen, even a 6p+6e could get a GB6 multi-core score of 18000-20000 which is where M3 Max is now; not too shabby! We might even see an increase in e-cores, given that these give more “bang for buck”, having about 1/4 of the space for maybe up to 50% of the performance of the p-cores.

GPU cores may range from 14-20, and I’m hoping for at least 16 cores in the binned version (same as M2 Pro). If the GPU cores have the ~17% improvement from M3 to M4, then a 20 core version could get close to a GB6 Metal score of 100,000 - somewhere between a 24-core and 32-core M1 Max. While not exactly a graphical powerhouse, it’s still adequate for a lot of photo/video editing tasks, and about twice the base M4

Even with a $100 price increase, a $1400 binned M4 Pro with 6p+6e CPU, 16-core GPU, 24GB RAM, 512GB SSD would be good deal for price/performance I think.

Keeping the binned 5p+6e CPU, 14-core GPU, and 18GB RAM would be a disappointment though, even if the overall performance is quite a bit better than the M2 Pro.

 

[EugW]

1) Base M4 Mini: 10 core CPU (6e+4p), 10 core GPU, 16GB RAM, 512GB SSD

I'm going to go with US$799-899 starting price given that both RAM and SSD could increase, and these would otherwise cost $400 to upgrade (on the M2 Mini). It's possible the base SSD could stay at 256GB, even if RAM is increased to 16GB, in which case I would expect at base price of $699 (i.e. an increase of $100, but double the RAM)

I'm thinking $699 for M4 16 GB / 256 GB, $899 for M4 16 GB / 512 GB. Only three USB-C ports + HDMI + Ethernet though.

The M2 8 GB / 256 GB may stick around at $499.

 

[Fomalhaut]

I'm thinking $699 for M4 16 GB / 256 GB, $899 for M4 16 GB / 512 GB. Only three USB-C ports + HDMI + Ethernet though.

The M2 8 GB / 256 GB may stick around at $499.

Sounds quite likely for the base M4.

Someone in another thread suggested that the M4 Pro SoC could be eliminated given the improvements in the base M4. I find this unlikely, but I do worry about the possibility of there not being an M4 Pro version of the Mac Mini. That would suck because the next step up would be a base Studio at twice the price and an 8-9 month wait.

I'm quite used to mixed emotions when Apple releases new hardware. It tends to be either:

(a) "Wow! Look how much faster this is than the last one! ", closely followed by..."...How much?! How the hell can it cost *this much*!!! "

(b) "You call that an upgrade! It's worse than the last one! And they're charging the same amount for this lemon! "

 

[EugW]

Sounds quite likely for the base M4.

Someone in another thread suggested that the M4 Pro SoC could be eliminated given the improvements in the base M4. I find this unlikely, but I do worry about the possibility of there not being an M4 Pro version of the Mac Mini. That would suck because the next step up would be a base Studio at twice the price and an 8-9 month wait.

I mentioned M4 would be 3 USB-C only.
5 USB-C would be M4 Pro.

Too bad though. That is what I am expecting based on the rumours, but I would preferred 4 USB-C M4 and 6 USB-C M4 Pro.