App Store's Meteoric Growth Compared to iTunes Song Downloads

[MacRumors]

Asymco offers an interesting graph showing the relative growth of iTunes song and App Store downloads over their respective histories, demonstrating the App Store's meteoric growth that is setting it up to pass the music portion of Apple's media store in total downloads in the relatively near future.

As can be seen, the App store has reached the same total downloads in 2.2 years as the iTMS reached after five years. The two curves are likely to be the same height (around 13 billion each) before the year is over.

We're not convinced that the catch will happen by the end of the year, but it certainly appears that the App Store is on pace to come out on top sometime next year. App Store downloads have totaled about 500 million per month over the past six months, while song downloads have stagnated at about 250 million per month for the past year or so.

Given that the music side currently holds about a 5 billion download lead over the App Store, that would imply that it will be about 20 months before the App Store takes the lead. Of course, given the acceleration in App Store downloads against stagnant song downloads, the catch will likely happen significantly sooner that that. We do not, however, see the App Store averaging the over 1.5 billion downloads per month that would appear to be necessary to catch the song download total by the end of this year.

It can also be argued that the comparison is one of apples to oranges, as the majority of applications available through the App Store are available free of charge, while only a small handful of song tracks are free at any given time. Regardless, Apple has long viewed its iTunes music downloads and App Store primarily as break-even businesses, designed much more to boost hardware sales than to generate profits on their own.

Article Link: App Store's Meteoric Growth Compared to iTunes Song Downloads

 

[Maclver]

no one will be able to copy the success of the appstore

 

[Shaun.P]

Interesting graph. It looks like the app store purchases will be level with the iTunes purchases in about 7-8 months down the line.

 

[FFArchitect]

Apps is where it's at.

Now if there were only a TV appliance that could use apps. Hmm.

 

[9822737]

Makes sense, I know far more people who download apps than music.

 

[Maclver]

Apps is where it's at.

Now if there were only a TV appliance that could use apps. Hmm.

Say the Apple TV could run apps how great would the apps be? esspcially when TV sizes are so different and the quality of the picture is different for each tv. If they were to ever do this and it was the quality equal to running an iPhone app on the iPad then no thanks!

 

[sportsfan]

purchases?

Interesting graph. It looks like the app store purchases will be level with the iTunes purchases in about 7-8 months down the line.

That's the key word....it only says DOWNLOADS. Which makes sense due to all the free apps.

 

[nwcs]

I think the comparison is a bit unfair. The idea of downloading things took time to reach the common person. Also the number of devices available plays a role. People also had lots of CDs available to rip reducing the need to go to iTunes but they didn't have apps hanging around.

What I take out of this is that physical media is definitely going to be declining. One way or another things will be moving to online digital formats. It'll probably kill the secondary market for things, too. I can resell a DVD but I can't resell anything I buy off of iTunes.

 

[I is Mac]

Ok peeps start downloading random apps now so we can overtake those fascist music companies in downloads even faster!

 

[OllyW]

That's the key word....it only says DOWNLOADS. Which makes sense due to all the free apps.

If half the music on iTunes was free I think we'd see a sharp rise in music downloads.

 

[Tux Kapono]

Imagine what the iTunes song chart would look like if most of its library were free like the App Store. This chart is as misleading as it gets.

I'd like to see PAID iTunes songs versus PAID apps.

 

[NickK1066]

I think the graphs are missing a critical metric - the number of handsets in the market.

iPod expanded and took iTunes along with it. Hence it's progressive take up.

Apps store then had an established market that would easily move to apps-capable iPods/iPhones.

Add to this that the iTunes songs are resold music where Apple and the music firms are all fighting over the money. So the amount of music new music appearing is constrained by the music companies.
The apps store is 'open' to any developer or company to create their own applications without constraints (including free).

Now if Apple had self publication of music in addition to books and apps perhaps we'd see a increase in new and inventive music out there each year..

 

[WiiDSmoker]

no one will be able to copy the success of the appstore

No one will ever be able to beat Sony's Playstation.
No one will ever be able to topple Apple's II.

You're living in a dream world.

 

[chrisandersen]

I thought meteor came down to earth, not shot up. Oh well.

 

[emptyCup]

I think the comparison is a bit unfair.

I agree with the points you make. Additionally, no one owned any apps two years ago but they already owned most of the songs in their collection before iTunes. Add in that they are not counting Podcasts or iTunes U or anything free except the Song of the Week and I think the numbers are undoubtedly off. However, as others have pointed out, the trends are clear: Apps are in, digital media is on its way out.

 

[NebulaClash]

As noted, there are many more millions of iPods and iPhones out there now than when the music store first opened. Larger market = faster uptake of products.

 

[Maclver]

No one will ever be able to beat Sony's Playstation.
No one will ever be able to topple Apple's II.

You're living in a dream world.

How is it a dream when its already a reality!

 

[notjustjay]

I'd like to see PAID iTunes songs versus PAID apps.

Or total dollars spent.

I know I've downloaded a ton of free apps, judged them to be crap, and deleted them within seconds.

Having said that, I'm also happy to spend a dollar, five bucks, even ten or twenty bucks, on an app that's well written and does what I want it to do.

 

[melgross]

That's the key word....it only says DOWNLOADS. Which makes sense due to all the free apps.

Except that the article is wrong. There have been other articles that show only about 30% of apps in the store are free. 70% cost.

In fact this is a big difference between iOS apps and those for Android, where most are free, but lower quality.

 

[Bonte]

Imagine what the iTunes song chart would look like if most of its library were free like the App Store. This chart is as misleading as it gets.

I'd like to see PAID iTunes songs versus PAID apps.

More like revenue generated, apps and iBooks books tend to be more expensive than songs.

 

[jb510]

The first line of the last paragraph says it all. I'd like to see paid vs paid... and I'd like to see a revenue comparison as well.

 

[FFArchitect]

Say the Apple TV could run apps how great would the apps be? esspcially when TV sizes are so different and the quality of the picture is different for each tv. If they were to ever do this and it was the quality equal to running an iPhone app on the iPad then no thanks!

Pretty sure that can be overcome. The challenges are less than conquering mobile with limited memory, battery, etc.

 

[WiiDSmoker]

Say the Apple TV could run apps how great would the apps be? esspcially when TV sizes are so different and the quality of the picture is different for each tv. If they were to ever do this and it was the quality equal to running an iPhone app on the iPad then no thanks!

Just program for 720P/1080P. Not hard.

 

[MrSmith]

If half the music on iTunes was free I think we'd see a sharp rise in music downloads.

Get on it.

 

[mattwolfmatt]

Ugh - another graph showing total downloads. More interesting would be downloads PER MONTH - then it will better show rises and falls, instead of slower rises and faster rises.