Apple stock papers?

[Mr L]

Hi all!
I'm usually not interested in risking anything on the stock market. This time I will change my mind.
It is for sure that the iPhone will hit the market hard, maybe even as hard as the iPod. Everyone at my work (conservative administration office guys)wants it and those people are not Mac-Users. They are die-hard PC guys. Why, because the don't know better and there is no use of trying convincing them otherwise. Those are the people who bought an iPod long after the hype, because finally iPod became main stream also in the business world. Anyway, after they bought one they were blown away by it's beauty and also spend heaps of money on add on products etc. you get the idea.

So this is what I think will happen. Like I said, it is no use convincing my work mates of Mac computers, because their logic is: if it would be good everyone would have it. Most people still think Mac OS X is like Linux and not for people who, let me describe them as: just-write-emails and use-MSoffice people. This is the majority of people.
When the iPhone hits, MAC OS X will be visible for the first time to a lot of those "normal" people and be sure they will be blown away the same as they were using an iPod for the first time. They will want to use an interface like this also at home. So my guess is, also the Mac computer sales will skyrocket after iPhone with OS X becomes mainstream.

When this happens I want to make sure I've invested early in Apple stock papers. Have you seen the figueres in the key note what a difference 1% market share makes just in phones? I'm even thinking of cancelling all my other saving plans early and to reinvest this money in Apple papers.

Would you agree with this logic? If so, do you have a tip where is a good place to buy stock papers where you are not bound to long term contracts?

Best regards from Germany

 

[Dreadnought]

All you need is a bank or a brooker that lets you invest in the NASDAQ. On the NASDAQ you can buy Apple stocks. Unfortunately here in the Netherlands I can't do it through my bank. So I'll need a brooker, but they are kind of expensive, especially if you only want to invest a couple of hundred Euro/USD.

 

[lizard79]

apple stock is also traded in germany in frankfurt.. so no need for nasdaq and it's much cheaper to buy in your own country/euro zone because of the fees..

All you need is a bank or a brooker that lets you invest in the NASDAQ. On the NASDAQ you can buy Apple stocks. Unfortunately here in the Netherlands I can't do it through my bank. So I'll need a brooker, but they are kind of expensive, especially if you only want to invest a couple of hundred Euro/USD.

 

[Kwyjibo]

I'm even thinking of cancelling all my other saving plans early and to reinvest this money in Apple papers.

Would you agree with this logic? If so, do you have a tip where is a good place to buy stock papers where you are not bound to long term contracts?

This is a horrible idea. Do not cancel savings accounts or retirement plans to invest in apple's stock. I would allocate some of my assets if you want to invest in this stock BUT I would not invest more than 20% of your assets in one company so your not at as much risk.

people like to remember the upside ... but there's a chance apple goes broke and your stock is worth nothing. its unlikely but its on the table ... don't forget that.

 

[IJ Reilly]

This is a horrible idea. Do not cancel savings accounts or retirement plans to invest in apple's stock. I would allocate some of my assets if you want to invest in this stock BUT I would not invest more than 20% of your assets in one company so your not at as much risk.

people like to remember the upside ... but there's a chance apple goes broke and your stock is worth nothing. its unlikely but its on the table ... don't forget that.

I agree with this advice, but "goes broke?" Isn't that a little dramatic?

 

[heehee]

This is a horrible idea. Do not cancel savings accounts or retirement plans to invest in apple's stock. I would allocate some of my assets if you want to invest in this stock BUT I would not invest more than 20% of your assets in one company so your not at as much risk.

people like to remember the upside ... but there's a chance apple goes broke and your stock is worth nothing. its unlikely but its on the table ... don't forget that.

What he said. Don't ever put "all of your money" into one stock. EVER! While a large company is "safe" to invest in, there is always a chance a stock will go down for whatever reason.

" It is for sure that the iPhone will hit the market hard.." As much as I like Apple and the iphone, you might want to rethink that.

 

[damien341]

eh... wait, it's not that simple. every information regarding apple is already priced into the stockmarket rate, including the expected 1% market share of the iphone. so therefore you've got to deal with rumors about forthcoming product announcements. this is associated with risk, but that's the nature of stocktrading.

 

[iW00t]

I think it is a bad idea.

Apple's share prices have already shot when the iPhone was announced, so the current share prices we see right now are burdened with some heavy expectations here....

And personally my gut tells me the iPhone is going to be quite a flop, it is just my gut. I'd be surprised if Apple even sells 1 million units out of the 12 million (?) they ordered from Hong Hai.

 

[Kwyjibo]

I agree with this advice, but "goes broke?" Isn't that a little dramatic?

oh for sure ...

but at the same time I just finished my degree. It was the post-enron era. Trust me, I fully understand a $100 stock going to 0 practically overnight ... wait now a $100 stock with an accounting scandal?

Obviously no one thinks the apple options thing is that big of a deal ... but at the same time, I don't rule out a company going broke ever. It can happen, and usually when something is being done wrong its hidden as much as possible. Actually the saving grace is that stocks only go to $0 ...

but yes, it certainly is dramatic.

 

[fall3n]

I think it is a bad idea.

Apple's share prices have already shot when the iPhone was announced, so the current share prices we see right now are burdened with some heavy expectations here....

And personally my gut tells me the iPhone is going to be quite a flop, it is just my gut. I'd be surprised if Apple even sells 1 million units out of the 12 million (?) they ordered from Hong Hai.

What's your reasoning? I think no doubt there will be obstacles, such as bugs and network issues, etc. but that goes for any brand new product. The fact that your getting a phone, organizer, mp3 player, video player, etc. all in one and in a sleek, thin looking, easy to use device for a quite reasonable price is more then enough for any average consumer to run out the door and upgrade. Every techy and hot shot in NA alone is going to want one. I don't know what your gut feeling is like, but i know mine tells me that it's going to be quite the success and most likely set a standard for all-in-one phones.

On the stock note, I sure as hell wouldn't throw all my eggs in one basket. There's a reason why they say diversify, it's far lower risk. Allocate some of your money and invest in Apple if you must, however I don't imagine the stock prices are going to jump THAT much, perhaps raise several bucks, but it won't be enough to make your couple of thousand jump up to tens of thousands. Stocks arn't really the way to make it big (unless you've got a lot to invest or you manage to get a really low priced stock that sky rockets), if that's what your looking for. Either way, good luck.

 

[iW00t]

First off is the Cingular tie in, that severely restricts the iPhone's target market. Anyone who thinks that people will cut off their existing contracts just solely to buy an iPhone needs a reality check.

Truth is, people just don't care about Apple. We, on the other hand, are loyal Apple fanbois, so we cannot see and predict "average joe's" buying decision through our Apple tinted glasses.

Case in point, you may point to the iPod as a blooming success and concluded from that metric alone that very many people will buy a product just because Apple makes it, my counter point? Well not very many of those iPod users walk into an Apple store to buy a Macbook Pro when their Dell notebooks die do they?

Consumers don't buy Apple because they are loyal, they buy Apple because:

1. It is pretty
2. Their friends all uses it
3. It works well
4. Pricing is fairly competitive too
5. Works seamlessly with what they have got

The iPhone on the other hand has none of those. It is not even pretty, and with its huge brick shaped form factor oh I can see it being bought for so many ladies as Valentine's day gifts in 2008... to the tech geek, well what does it work with? What does it sync with?

Most people are probably buying it as a phone cum GPS cum iPod thingy, but road warriors will most likely steer elsewhere. Like the iPhone's PDA software is going to interoperate with so many Fortune 500 corporations , or the basic lack of user replaceable batteries is such an attractive feature.

The iPhone IMO is something that is targetted at the tech savvy consumer with more $ than brains, and while human stupidity is a good resource to sell on, but basing your entire sales quota on that one market segment?

Let's face it, it is not a very practical device, and it is huge and butt ugly.

What's your reasoning? I think no doubt there will be obstacles, such as bugs and network issues, etc. but that goes for any brand new product. The fact that your getting a phone, organizer, mp3 player, video player, etc. all in one and in a sleek, thin looking, easy to use device for a quite reasonable price is more then enough for any average consumer to run out the door and upgrade. Every techy and hot shot in NA alone is going to want one. I don't know what your gut feeling is like, but i know mine tells me that it's going to be quite the success and most likely set a standard for all-in-one phones.

On the stock note, I sure as hell wouldn't throw all my eggs in one basket. There's a reason why they say diversify, it's far lower risk. Allocate some of your money and invest in Apple if you must, however I don't imagine the stock prices are going to jump THAT much, perhaps raise several bucks, but it won't be enough to make your couple of thousand jump up to tens of thousands. Stocks arn't really the way to make it big (unless you've got a lot to invest or you manage to get a really low priced stock that sky rockets), if that's what your looking for. Either way, good luck.

 

[Mr L]

Thanks for all the usefull infos guys. I didn't know that those expectations (incl. iPhone sales) are already acounted for. To be honest, I never cared for stocks too much, even hate numbers in general.

Since I still have high hopes on this, especially inreasing mac sales due to introducing OS X to the masses, I will 'only' invest 10 grant and see what happens after a year or so. If I get a free bermuda holiday out of this I'll be more than happy and if I don't loose more than 20 or 30 % I can still live with that.

Anyway thanks for making me aware of not risking too much in this. After watching the key note again, damn this Steve guy knows how to put a spell on you.

 

[jessep28]

Here is the underlying theroy behind the notion that all public information is factored into the stock price:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient_market

The markets are funny things. It's an interesting beast in that we know markets work but we don't know how exactly it is generally right.

Stock price being affected by public disclosure of information almost immediately is a principle reason why insider trading is such a grave topic to investors. Everyone should have an equal chance to benefit/fail from company information.

 

[jessep28]

First off is the Cingular tie in, that severely restricts the iPhone's target market. Anyone who thinks that people will cut off their existing contracts just solely to buy an iPhone needs a reality check.

Truth is, people just don't care about Apple. We, on the other hand, are loyal Apple fanbois, so we cannot see and predict "average joe's" buying decision through our Apple tinted glasses.

Case in point, you may point to the iPod as a blooming success and concluded from that metric alone that very many people will buy a product just because Apple makes it, my counter point? Well not very many of those iPod users walk into an Apple store to buy a Macbook Pro when their Dell notebooks die do they?

Consumers don't buy Apple because they are loyal, they buy Apple because:

1. It is pretty
2. Their friends all uses it
3. It works well
4. Pricing is fairly competitive too
5. Works seamlessly with what they have got

The iPhone on the other hand has none of those. It is not even pretty, and with its huge brick shaped form factor oh I can see it being bought for so many ladies as Valentine's day gifts in 2008... to the tech geek, well what does it work with? What does it sync with?

Most people are probably buying it as a phone cum GPS cum iPod thingy, but road warriors will most likely steer elsewhere. Like the iPhone's PDA software is going to interoperate with so many Fortune 500 corporations , or the basic lack of user replaceable batteries is such an attractive feature.

The iPhone IMO is something that is targetted at the tech savvy consumer with more $ than brains, and while human stupidity is a good resource to sell on, but basing your entire sales quota on that one market segment?

Let's face it, it is not a very practical device, and it is huge and butt ugly.

I have to agree with you on many of your points.

1) The exclusion of Cingular is a primary criticism of Apple in the iPhone product. This is another example about how Apple is keeping too tight of a reign and demanding too much control.

This may have been a cost saving move in that Apple won't have to produce phones for several networks but on the other hand I don't see a mass exodus from other carriers to Cingular.

2) IPhone appealing to smart phone's primary customers - corporate users - is too little too late. The Treo and Blackberry have already taken a stronghold on that segment. Everyone has a Crackberry or Treo and that will give others even more reason not to switch. It will be inconvenient.

So, Apple with the iPhone will not have this untapped market to penetrate like it did with the iPod and the mp3 player market.

4) If Apple is taking 1% of the market, RIM, Palm and other will gladly take the other 99%.

I hate to sound critical of Apple, but I just don't see this having the long product life cycle iPod is experiencing.

 

[fall3n]

First off is the Cingular tie in, that severely restricts the iPhone's target market. Anyone who thinks that people will cut off their existing contracts just solely to buy an iPhone needs a reality check.

Truth is, people just don't care about Apple. We, on the other hand, are loyal Apple fanbois, so we cannot see and predict "average joe's" buying decision through our Apple tinted glasses.

Case in point, you may point to the iPod as a blooming success and concluded from that metric alone that very many people will buy a product just because Apple makes it, my counter point? Well not very many of those iPod users walk into an Apple store to buy a Macbook Pro when their Dell notebooks die do they?

Consumers don't buy Apple because they are loyal, they buy Apple because:

1. It is pretty
2. Their friends all uses it
3. It works well
4. Pricing is fairly competitive too
5. Works seamlessly with what they have got

The iPhone on the other hand has none of those. It is not even pretty, and with its huge brick shaped form factor oh I can see it being bought for so many ladies as Valentine's day gifts in 2008... to the tech geek, well what does it work with? What does it sync with?

Most people are probably buying it as a phone cum GPS cum iPod thingy, but road warriors will most likely steer elsewhere. Like the iPhone's PDA software is going to interoperate with so many Fortune 500 corporations , or the basic lack of user replaceable batteries is such an attractive feature.

The iPhone IMO is something that is targetted at the tech savvy consumer with more $ than brains, and while human stupidity is a good resource to sell on, but basing your entire sales quota on that one market segment?

Let's face it, it is not a very practical device, and it is huge and butt ugly.

I'll agree with you that making the iPhone Cingular only is a stupid move and that it's not going to be an industry standard because most industries are on windows systems, however I see this phone as directed to businesses that rely on windows oriented devices.

The iPhone is made for consumers that want something that can do a bit of everything. Something so that they don't have to have their mp3 player, cell phone, camera, and organizer in different pockets. The iPhone solves this problem and provides users with an easy to use interface much like the iPod. The pricing IS competetive as you won't find any other device that is around the same price and can provide the same features. It DOES look pretty to many people and is very sleek in comparison to other devices of its own. As far as it works well, you nor I can judge upon this. I think the iPhone will be much like the iPod. Slow to start, but will grow and become very successful. Perhaps 10 million sold within a year is over estimate, but perhaps not. There is an extremely large market for this kind of device and providing they market it correctly (as apple does very well with many things) they will be successful.

We are all fanboi's here, but you don't have to be a fanboi to love the iPod and many many people do, so we'll just have to wait and see if the same happens to the iPhone.

 

[IJ Reilly]

I'll agree with you that making the iPhone Cingular only is a stupid move and that it's not going to be an industry standard because most industries are on windows systems, however I see this phone as directed to businesses that rely on windows oriented devices.

This represents a fundamental misunderstanding. First, the reason the iPhone will be exclusive to Cingular at least initially is due to the need for carriers to invest in technology which will be exclusive to the iPhone. Second, I never met anyone was so happy with their carrier that they were not willing to switch given a good reason.

Way too much second-guessing going on here based on way too little hard information.

 

[jessep28]

Well of course there is going to be a lot of guessing. All that is known is a product, it's capabilities, carrier and its tenitive release date.

What infrastructure will Cingular have to invest in? The iPhone will run off it's cellular network and EDGE technology which is already in place and available for other Cingular products.

The exclusive carrier thing in my opinion was a move by Apple to push for a higher percentage of revenues from iPhone customers.

 

[Dreadnought]

Cingular needs to get the voicemail gadget work. And who knows what kind of gadgets Steve didn't let us see because they are still experimental. With experimental I mean buggy