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Apple stock: what's goin' on?

peterdevries

peterdevries

macrumors 68040
Original poster
Feb 22, 2008
3,146
1,135
Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Does anyone know what's goin'on with the apple stock? It's at 176 at the moment :eek: I'm quite surprised as most analysts have actually published new targets from 235 to 250...

edit: just read some speculation about Jobs' health as he appeared thin on monday, but this was old news (10th of june)..

What's goin on?
 
AAPL is just one stock in a market which is in bad shape overall. I'm actually surprised by how well it's holding up under all the pressure.
 
The topic of Steve Jobs' health is causing Apple's stock to take a beating. In just the past couple days the stock has dropped almost 7%. Chalk some of that up to the overall market, yes. But look at it today where both the DOW and NASDAQ have been up a full percent, yet Apple's stock is down over 3% on the day.

Steve Jobs is vital to Apple - his worth to the company has been labeled at more than $20 billion. When such a vital person appears to be having health issues, it's cause for concern.

Also remember that what was announced at WWDC had already been factored into the stock price - everyone knew about it. What wasn't factored in was that some expected features/announcements weren't made (video conferencing) which also have hurt its stock price.
 
No, Steve's health is not an issue. AAPL is a volatile stock and on any given day you can't attribute it's moves to anything short of actual news.
 
Just remember one thing. It's stock. It does many unexplainable stuff, but it's right.
 
The stock is probably due for a bit of a drop. Most of that is iPhone.
 
Today, in particular, Apple dropped on increased expectations for Palm Centro sales. As Apple dropped, Palm gained.

Massive drops are usually reactive - either to bad news in the company or good news outside. If you can't find anything from Apple, look at their competitors.
 
The fact that a few very influential articles came out yesterday and today regarding SJ's health and the secrecy surrounding it plus a lack of a strong successor has played a part.
As we get closer to July it will climb and outperform.
 
peterdevries said:
I'm quite surprised as most analysts have actually published new targets from 235 to 250...
Click to expand...

remember those are the same guys who once said apple would drop from ~80 to 48.....and instead it jumped to ~110 :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

i have yet to see an accurate prediction from the analysts regarding AAPL

considering the market we're in, AAPL is doing very well...and keep in mind that it is hugely overvalued even at the current price.
 
megfilmworks said:
The fact that a few very influential articles came out yesterday and today regarding SJ's health and the secrecy surrounding it plus a lack of a strong successor has played a part.
As we get closer to July it will climb and outperform.
Click to expand...

They were articles. Whether they were "very influential" is a matter of opinion. In the end, the markets care about these factors, in diminishing order of importance: profits, forecasts of future profits, sales, forecasts of future sales, products, news, rumors, speculation -- all of which can be overridden by the broader hopes, fears and expectations of the markets related to general economic conditions, not to mention, plain old randomness.

The "Steve's health" question falls squarely under the "speculation" category. It's a low-order issue to which the markets may react, all else being equal -- which it rarely is.
 
If you have to ask the question, then you 'aint ready to invest yet.

(P.S. Check out YHOO)
 
IJ Reilly said:
They were articles. Whether they were "very influential" is a matter of opinion. In the end, the markets care about these factors, in diminishing order of importance: profits, forecasts of future profits, sales, forecasts of future sales, products, news, rumors, speculation -- all of which can be overridden by the broader hopes, fears and expectations of the markets related to general economic conditions, not to mention, plain old randomness.

The "Steve's health" question falls squarely under the "speculation" category. It's a low-order issue to which the markets may react, all else being equal -- which it rarely is.
Click to expand...

I agree in general, but the health of SJ is a big concern on the Street.
Not only because he is AAPL but also that he kept his first bout of cancer a secret from investors.
When WSJ, CNBC, Drudge (who stated the current rumors), etc. all are talking and writing about him as well as the implications of him stepping down, then it's hard not to take it as a driver in the large loss yesterday and today.
On the various financial websites it is the lead item on AAPL.
 
megfilmworks said:
I agree in general, but the health of SJ is a big concern on the Street.
Not only because he is AAPL but also that he kept his first bout of cancer a secret from investors.
When WSJ, CNBC, Drudge (who stated the current rumors), etc. all are talking and writing about him as well as the implications of him stepping down, then it's hard not to take it as a driver in the large loss yesterday and today.
On the various financial websites it is the lead item on AAPL.
Click to expand...

Every time a stock moves up or down somebody somewhere says they know exactly why. Listen carefully and you'll hear that 98% of this analysis is generic "moved lower on fears of..." or "moved higher on expectations of..." nonsense. The reality is they don't usually have a clue why a stock goes up or down on any given day. They aren't polling buyers or sellers on their motivations, they're just latching onto vague generalities.

The health of Steve Jobs is gossip, grist for the mill -- little more. Not that people don't like gossip and speculation, but anyone who buys or sells on gossip and speculation gets what they deserve.
 
Much Ado said:
If you have to ask the question, then you 'aint ready to invest yet.

(P.S. Check out YHOO)
Click to expand...

So you know everything? :rolleyes:

Maybe I wasn't clear, but my question related to the extremely sharp drop at around 10:30 EST today, and I couldn't find any news from around that time. It seems unlikely that exactly at that time many apple stock owners by coincidence decided to sell.
 
No news?

You sure Jim Cramer wasn't on telling people to sell Apple stock again, sell enough to pay for itselt and let the profit ride.
 
peterdevries said:
Maybe I wasn't clear, but my question related to the extremely sharp drop at around 10:30 EST today, and I couldn't find any news from around that time. It seems unlikely that exactly at that time many apple stock owners by coincidence decided to sell.
Click to expand...

That drop is not particularly significant, there are/have been much worse. Just sit tight, it's a weird old market out there, and we're post-keynote.
 
IJ Reilly said:
The health of Steve Jobs is gossip, grist for the mill -- little more. Not that people don't like gossip and speculation, but anyone who buys or sells on gossip and speculation gets what they deserve.
Click to expand...

A lot of traders and multi-billion dollar hedge funds buy and sell on gossip and speculation, so yeah, this kind of thing does have an impact on price.

AAPL stock is down because of three things 1) there is no way WWDC could have lived up to the hype that had built up beforehand 2) the overall market is trending down lately and 3) the rumors about Steve Jobs's health.

There are many times when a catalyst is obvious. In this case AAPL's recent fall cannot be attributed to the broad market. Apple was riding high during the past few months while the rest of the market was in the doldrums.

A lot of people are worried for a number of reasons, and therefore they are taking profits in AAPL.
 
Sun Baked said:
No news?

You sure Jim Cramer wasn't on telling people to sell Apple stock again, sell enough to pay for itselt and let the profit ride.
Click to expand...

That is exactly what he told people to do. Jim Cramer is a ****ing disgrace. He has lured thousands of naive people into trading their lives away. The other day on his show, one of his callers actually said that he quit his job so he could become a full-time trader. Mad Money my ****ing ass. Jim Cramer zig-zags in and out of stocks like a chicken with his god damn head cut off.

Every study shows that buy and hold wins over active trading. Jim Cramer should be in jail for ruining so many people's lives.
 
Now its dropping you lot all go out and invest in some Apple stock! Now! Go!

Come July 11th it will rise 10%, when will only go higher as APPL gets more $$$ from the 3G iPhone in 70 new countries :eek:
 
Does anyone know what the profit margins are on the iphone? What it costs Apple to produce?

I think AT&T may be in a better position to capitalize on the growth of the iPhone than AAPL. Look at the two year contracts, and the annual rates subscribers will be paying. Apple is selling the razor, but AT&T is selling the razor blades which is an ongoing income for AT&T.
 
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