dstorey,
The list of stores that Apple has planned*, but has not yet opened is the following, with the shopping center or mall in italics:
1 - San Francisco, California - Union Square a flagship store
2 - Toyko, Japan - Ginza shopping district first non-US store and a flagship store
3 - Seattle, Washington - University Village
4 - Tucson, Arizona - La Encantada (probably opening 11/03)
5 - Lyndhurst, Ohio - Legacy Village (opening 10/03) a suburb of Cleveland
6 - Alpharetta, Georgia - a suburb of Atlanta
7 - Aventura, Florida - a suburb of Miami
8 - Tigard, Oregon - Washington Square, a suburb of Portland
9 - Skokie, Illinois - Old Orchard a suburb of Chicago
10 - Corte Madera, California - a suburb of San Francisco
11 - Marlton, New Jersey - Sagemore, a suburb of Philadelphia
12 - Charlotte, North Carolina - South Park Mall
13 - San Diego, California - University Town Center
14 - Spanish Fort, Alabama - a suburb of Mobile
15 - Mission Viejo, California - a suburb of Los Angeles
The list of the top ten US metro areas without a store is the following:
1 - Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
2 - Kansas City, Missouri
3 - San Antonio, Texas
4 - Norfolk/Virginia Beach, Virginia
5 - New Orleans, Louisiana
6 - Salt Lake City, Utah
7 - Greensboro/Winston-Salem, North Carolina
8 - Austin, Texas (sorry, I think I said 7th largest)
9 - Nashville, Tennessee
10 - Providence, Rhode Island
I would expect some of these to have a store in the year following May 2004. I would also expect the first European store to be opened in that May 2004 to May 2005 period. There are 11 stores that have been opened or are planned for metro areas that are smaller than the ten listed above. I'm sure the other factors you spoke of as well as contracts with corporate owners of multiple malls explain Apple's strategy for openings in smaller markets.
*these are from either Apple's own announcements, Apple's job listings, or the announcement of a shopping center of the opening of an Apple store. The Spanish Fort store is the only one I haven't seen the evidence for, but Think Secret lists it as opening in Fall 2004. Apple has announce that there will be 70 stores by Thanksgiving 2003 and 77 by May 2004, the third anniversery of the first store.