Estimates are just that... an estimate based upon the current usage. If sitting idle it will report one figure, but then perform a processor heavy process and the estimate drops exponentially. Stop the process and the estimate goes back to something else. The only true measure is to use it as you normally would and time the usage. If you used to surf for 5 hours going to 6 sites and performing actions, go to the same 6 sites and perform the same actions and see of you get the same usage time.
depending on the drive to, a 7200rpm drive will use more power than a 5400rpm drive, shouldn't be that drastic though.
Apples estimates are nothing more then estimates, that is why I have mine display percentage left, so I am not falsely lead to believe I have a certain amount of time left (yes this percentage can fluctuate just as bad as time estimates as I stated above, but is more precise as it is based upon charge remaining). Reminds me of when SL came out and everyone thought that it was so much smaller and freed up so much memory because Apple changed the base that they figured storage on from base 10 to base 2.