000
FXUS63 KDLH 072031
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
331 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PATCHY FOG AGAIN
TONIGHT...WITH VERY QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM SE MN INTO NRN
ONTARIO...COMBINED WITH A LARGE SFC HIGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR HAS KEPT
CONDITIONS QUIET ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY. A WEAK SFC INFLECTION
FROM W-CENTRAL MN INTO NRN WI AND THE U.P. HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT
ENHANCED DUE TO A MODEST NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT LOW LVL
LAPSE RATES AND SFC INSTABILITY HAS NOT INCREASED ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AS OF 3 PM. WILL STILL HOLD ONTO LOW CHC POPS AND
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING FROM AROUND MOOSE
LAKE MN TO GLIDDEN WI.
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS THE BL
COLLAPSES AND DRY AIR ALOFT MIXES DOWN. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 50S
TONIGHT...AND COMBINE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIS AND CALM WINDS TO
PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY FOG.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER CONDITIONS
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. ANOTHER BATCH OF AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CUMULUS
CLOUDS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH A SLIGHT CHC OF SHOWERS INTO THE
ARROWHEAD ALONG A WEAK SFC FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE
70S AND LOWER 80S.
.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU AUG 7 2014
SHOULD BE A VERY QUIET START TO THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE IN CHARGE ACROSS THE AREA. THE FIRST CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE IN THE WESTERN AREAS
LATER SATURDAY NIGHT. THAT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
EXPAND TO ALL OF NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY. THE GFS ACTUALLY
BRINGS QPF FURTHER EAST INTO NW WI BUT WILL FAVOR THE SLOWER ECMWF.
IN FACT...THE ECMWF KEEPS IT LARGELY OUT OF NW WI THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT BUT WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL POP IN NW WI DUE TO LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING OF THE FRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION. THINGS SHOULD DRY OUT STARTING MONDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S.